The first polling on the Corby and East Northamptonshire by-election is out today and not surprisingly, it suggests that Labour will take the seat by a landslide. The poll commissioned by Lord Ashcroft predicts Corby will fall in line with national polling trends — a collapsed Lib Dem vote, reduced Tory presence and a resurgent Labour:

If the by-election result follows this pattern, it will represent a 9 per cent swing to Labour since the 2010 general election. If this were replicated at a national level, it would be enough to sweep Ed Miliband back into Downing Street.

The poll also gives some reaction to Louise Mensch’s resignation. Over half stated she should have considered the matter more thoroughly before becoming running for office and only 35 per cent rated her as a good local MP. However the voters are not without a heart — 82 per cent did agree that she was ‘perfectly entitled’ to resign to enjoy a better family life.

There are also a few insights into how the government as a whole is perceived by Corby voters. When asked whether the coalition is going well, 44 per cent said yes, but only 27 per cent are satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing. Luckily for the Tories, 30 per cent say they still prefer him over Ed Miliband as Prime Minister.

Any chance of a Tory win in 2015 depends on economic credibility. Despite the consistent lack of growth, nearly half of those polled trust Cameron, Clegg and Osborne to handle the economy over Ed Miliband and Balls. The Tories will be desperately hoping to maintain this distrust of Labour as a key part of the next general election strategy.

Tags: ConservativeHome, Corby by-election, Ed Balls, Ed Miliband, Lord Ashcroft, Polling, UK politics