The ONS’s first estimate of GDP in Q2 of 2012 shows a 0.7 per cent fall on Q1. It’s worth remembering that this is just a preliminary estimate and subject to revision later, but that’s a very big drop — the largest since the beginning of 2009 — driven largely by a big 5.2 per cent contraction in the construction sector.
The ONS does point out that the extra Jubilee bank holiday will have hurt the economy, as will the record rainfall in April and June — but don’t expect Osborne to highlight this, for fear of a repeat of the ridicule he experienced for pointing to snow and the royal wedding in the past.
The latest drop means that GDP has fallen by a total of around 1.4 per cent since 2011 Q3 and is now — more than four years after recession hit — still 4.5 per cent below where it was in 2008 Q1. Indeed, it’s now actually slightly below where it was when the coalition came to power.
And the continuation of the double-dip means that the UK’s recovery is lagging further and further behind the likes of Germany and the US:
Tags: Economics, GDP, UK politics