The Cameroons have long taken comfort in their belief that Ed Miliband
will never be Prime Minister. They have seen him as a firebreak between them and electoral defeat.
Three things have driven their conviction that the Labour leader will never make it to Number 10. First, their belief that he fails the blink test: can you see him standing outside Number 10?
Second, the next election will almost certainly be fought on the economy, Labour’s weakest area. Their final reason was a sense that he would never get the full support of those on the Labour
side who know how to win elections.
But recent events suggest that this confidence that Miliband will lose the next election might be misplaced. Miliband’s personal ratings have been improved quite dramatically since the
Budget: he’s now the least unpopular party leader. Cameron’s advantage on the
‘who would make the best Prime Minister’ question is down from 24 points at the start of the year to 8 points
Labour’s standing on the economy is also improving. At the start of the year, the Tories held a 12-point advantage. But
"https://twitter.com/#!/Spectator_CH/status/202143323295711233">a poll this week — albeit one that had Labour 14 points ahead — had the party up by one on the economic competence
We are also seeing Labour beginning to unite around Miliband. Interestingly, I hear that in the next few months, Miliband and Blair will do a big event together. Cameron, meanwhile, has a small but
determined group of ‘wreckers’ on his own backbenchers to deal with. They seem determined to inflict political pain on the Prime Minister regardless of the cost.
None of this means that a Labour win at the next election is now odds on. But as I say in the magazine this week, Ed Miliband as Prime Minister is no longer an absurd proposition but a distinct
political possibility. The Cameroons need to stop relying on him losing the next election and instead start concentrating on how to win it. That is going to take more boldness than they have shown