The final pre-campaign YouGov poll has just been released and it shows the Tories over forty percent and ahead by ten percent, numbers that I suspect the party would have taken back in January and would be delighted to have repeated on election day. Even on a uniform national swing these results–Tories 41, Labour 31, Lib Dems 18–would produce a Tory majority, albeit a small one.
This poll is an Easter one and so should be treated with a certain amount of caution. But it does rather suggest that ICM’s numbers—which showed the Tory lead down to four points—are out of sync with the trend in the polls. There will be a slew of polls in the next few days and so we’ll soon have a clearer idea of whether YouGov or ICM is closer to the mood of the moment.