The Politics Home Index, a poll of 100 political insiders which has just launched, is going to provide a fascinating insight into what the Westminster Village is thinking. Earlier this week, the panel were surveyed on what they expected the result of the next election to be—the results, provided exclusively to Coffee House, make for encouraging reading for the Tories.
34 percent predict a Conservative majority while 32% expect the Conservatives to be the largest party in a hung parliament. By contrast, only 13 percent say the Labour party will have a majority and 22 percent think Labour will be the largest party but fall short of an overall majority.
Politics Home, which launches on Monday, will be asking this question regularly, so it will allow us to track how expert opinion is shifting. These results do, though, suggest that we should start thinking about the politics of coalition-building as Fraser does in his column which will be online tomorrow.