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Jonathan Jones rssJonathan Jones

Jonathan Jones is Director of Research at The Spectator.

Nate Silver. Photo: AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

Nate Silver on predicting the 2015 general election

17 May 2013 12:18

I’ve interviewed one of the heroes of last year’s US elections — forecasting expect Nate Silver — for the books blog, but I thought CoffeeHousers might be interested in what… Continue reading

9 Comments
Nate Silver. Photo: AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

Nate Silver interview: ‘Politics is uniquely full of bullshit’

17 May 2013 9:16

Nate Silver doesn’t suffer fools gladly — especially fools who pass themselves off as experts. In the second chapter of his book, The Signal and the Noise: The Art and… Continue reading

16 Comments
Is Britain working?

Unemployment rises… or does it?

15 May 2013 15:29

Today’s job statistics are, as usual, mixed — and even a touch confusing. Last month, the headline was that the unemployment had risen to 2.56 million. This month, we’re told… Continue reading

12 Comments
Money

Dominic Raab reveals Britain’s true debt burden

14 May 2013 16:21

With the Conservative Party continuing to bang on relentlessly about Europe, Boris Johnson issued a timely reminder yesterday that ‘most of our problems are not caused by “Bwussels”’. (Something that… Continue reading

120 Comments
Ed Miliband

Is nice but dim such a bad thing for Labour?

10 May 2013 15:44

Labour’s lead in the polls has been pretty steady at around 10 points for a little over a year now. So why does today’s Guardian carry an article with the… Continue reading

33 Comments
GDP

No triple-dip: GDP up by 0.3%

25 April 2013 9:30

The UK seems to have avoided a triple-dip recession. According to today’s estimate from the Office for National Statistics, the economy grew by 0.3 per cent in the first three… Continue reading

35 Comments
After Ukip's second place in Eastleigh, Farage thinks they can win a by-election. Picture: PA

Nigel Farage shouldn’t get Ukip’s hopes up for a win in Portsmouth South

24 April 2013 11:56

Talk of a by-election in Portsmouth South has been growing, fuelled by allegations against MP Mike Hancock. And, in a speech to the parliamentary press gallery lunch yesterday, Nigel Farage… Continue reading

48 Comments
The Osborne Austerity

Deficit falls by 0.3%… maybe

23 April 2013 10:04

George Osborne will be breathing a sigh of relief this morning. The boast he made in his Autumn Statement in December — ‘the deficit is coming down this year, and… Continue reading

28 Comments
Parliament

Should the Public Affairs Act 1975 be repealed?

18 April 2013 17:54

9 per cent of Brits say the Public Affairs Act 1975 should be repealed, and 9 per cent say it shouldn’t, according to a new poll by YouGov. If you’re… Continue reading

36 Comments
Graphic: Carla Millar

Has the jobs recovery stalled?

17 April 2013 16:39

The number of people in work in December to February was 29.698 million — lower than last month’s 29.732 million and representing a very slight 2,000 quarter-on-quarter fall — according… Continue reading

18 Comments
What do the figures say about Thatcher's economic record? Picture: Getty Images

Margaret Thatcher in six graphs

10 April 2013 12:58

With the debate swirling about Margaret Thatcher’s legacy and her government’s record, it’s worth taking a look at what the cold, hard economic data has to say about her time… Continue reading

54 Comments
George Osborne

Two versions of Osborne’s benefits speech

2 April 2013 14:12

The Times’ Sam Coates picked up on a couple of discrepancies between the text of George Osborne’s Morrisons speech sent out by CCHQ, and the one published by the Treasury.… Continue reading

9 Comments
A Boris-led Tory party does six points better than a Cameron-led one, a new poll shows. Picture: Getty Images

Poll: Boris could save 50 Tory MPs

28 March 2013 15:36

YouGov have once again tested how a Boris-led Tory party would compare to a Cameron-led one in the polls. When they last did so in October, they found that Boris… Continue reading

34 Comments
George Osborne's latest Budget seems to have gone down better than last year's. Picture: Getty Images

Budget 2013: The public’s verdict

22 March 2013 14:08

We’ve got the first post-Budget polling from YouGov, and it brings mixed news for George Osborne. Certainly, this Budget doesn’t seem (so far) to have dented the Chancellor’s reputation the… Continue reading

16 Comments
Voters didn't like Plan A when it had George Osborne's name attached. Picture: Getty

Voters: It’s not Plan A, it’s Osborne

14 March 2013 17:52

A fascinating poll result from Ipsos MORI today. They ask, essentially, whether people agree with the government’s ‘Plan A’ or Labour’s ‘Plan B’. Specifically, they ask: ‘People have different ideas… Continue reading

61 Comments
Tax

Forget 50p — scrap the 60p tax rate

12 March 2013 14:50

Imagine if a Chancellor stood up and announced that those earning up to £100,000 would pay a 40p tax rate, those earning £100,000 to £112,950 will pay a 60p rate,… Continue reading

22 Comments
Osborne was the only EU finance minister who voted against the cap on bankers' bonuses. Image: Getty
Picture: Getty Images

The truth about Ukip supporters

5 March 2013 12:11

Who are all these folk jumping on Nigel Farage’s bandwagon? Ukip — which received just 3 per cent of the vote in 2010 — is now averaging about 11 per… Continue reading

222 Comments
Picture: Getty Images

What Works: The government’s NICE new idea

4 March 2013 19:07

This afternoon, Danny Alexander and Oliver Letwin launched something so sensible it’s astonishing governments haven’t been doing it before. They’re actually going to use evidence to determine which policies work.… Continue reading

24 Comments
Their superior operation and strong local record helped the Liberal Democrats secure victory. Picture: Getty Images

Eastleigh by-election: Four points from Ashcroft’s exit poll

1 March 2013 15:48

The result might be in, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing useful polls can tell us about the Eastleigh by-election. What swayed the voters? Why did they vote as they… Continue reading

28 Comments
The recent fall in productivity is the equivalent of an extra eight-minute cigarette break for every employee, every hour. Picture: Getty Images.

Fag break Britain: four answers to Britain’s productivity puzzle

1 March 2013 11:52

Jobs are being created in Britain, but the economy isn’t growing. In the last year, the number of people in work rose by 2 per cent, but economic output rose… Continue reading

30 Comments
Pier Luigi Bersani secured a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, but not in the Senate. Picture: Getty Images

Italian elections: ‘The worst possible outcome’

26 February 2013 15:16

Forget Moody’s. If you want to see market panic, just look at Italy. As Isabel reported this morning, the unexpectedly strong performance of Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment party, the Five Star… Continue reading

74 Comments
Picture: Getty Images

Markets shrug off Britain’s downgrade

25 February 2013 9:37

It seems that Moody’s downgrade of UK government bonds on Friday night has — so far — had more effect on the headlines than the markets. After the news on… Continue reading

12 Comments
Picture: Getty Images

Tinkering with tax isn’t enough

22 February 2013 15:04

Should the 10p tax rate be brought back? Should the top rate be higher, or lower? Can the personal allowance be raised further? Is a mansion tax a good idea?… Continue reading

65 Comments
Graphic: Carla Millar

Deficit latest: Still £5 billion higher than last year

21 February 2013 12:51

Today’s borrowing figures show that the government had a surplus of £11.4 billion in January. But before we get too excited, a bit of context is in order. There’s (almost)… Continue reading

47 Comments