Coffee House

If Deutsche Bank collapses, it’s taking the euro with it

11 February 2016

1:06 PM

11 February 2016

1:06 PM

The queues haven’t started forming outside branches in Frankfurt or Cologne yet. Even so, it is hard not to suspect that something is badly amiss at Deutsche Bank, Germany’s and indeed Europe’s mightiest financial institution, and the rock on which that economy is founded. The shares have been in freefall, and executives have been wheeled out to try and reassure everyone that all is well. For Deutsche to be in trouble is bad enough. But here’s the real problem. If Deutsche does go down, it is taking the euro down with it. Why? Because if Germany bails it out, the contrast with the punishment metered out to Greek banks will be too painful to contemplate. And yet, were it to be allowed to fail, it would be catastrophic for the German economy.

There is something nastily 2008 about the trading action in Deutsche. The shares have almost halved over the past month, falling from 21 euros to 13. They are down another 6 percent today. Earlier this week, its Yorkshire-born co-chief executive John Cryan took the unusual step of telling everyone the bank was ‘rock-solid’, while the German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble made a point of telling everyone he was not worried about Deutsche, which is bit like Roman Abramovich saying he totally backs whoever happens to be managing Chelsea this week.

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Of course, that might just be the markets getting into a panic about not very much. It would hardly be the first time traders have over-reacted. It may well be the case that Deutsche is in perfectly good shape, and can withstand whatever losses may be heading its way. We will see in the next few weeks. But what if it isn’t? That is where the story gets interesting.

If Deutsche were in serious trouble, the German government would surely feel compelled to bail it out, just as we bailed out RBS, and the Americans their banks, a few years ago. But hold on. It is less than a year ago that the Greek banks were allowed to go down, and the cash machines stopped working. That would be an acutely painful contrast, and one that could hardly fail to be missed. Everyone’s sneaking suspicion about the euro – that it is designed to work only for Germany – will be confirmed, and in the most dramatic way possible. It gets worse. The cost of a rescue would blow Germany’s debt to GDP ratio – currently 71 percent – through the roof. The rules it has been so fiercely enforcing for everyone else would turn out to be conveniently forgotten about for itself. How is that going to look to the Portuguese or the Spanish, living through German-imposed austerity to keep their debts under control? Not good.

Against that, letting it fail is hardly an option either. It is hard to see an already fragile currency surviving the collapse of its most systematically important bank. Neither would the Germany economy. Deutsche is not really a retail bank, like Barclays or Lloyds. Its main role is to finance Germany’s army of small exporters. But without them, the German economy would be in crisis – and, it hardly needs to be added, the whole of Europe depends on Germany.

Either way, the Chancellor Angela Merkel is going to be stuck in a very hard place. If she bails out the bank, it looks terrible, yet if she lets it fail, the economy goes down. She will probably be wishing she had something relatively simple – like a million Syrian refugees – to deal with. Because were Deutsche to be in trouble, it could turn into the trigger for the euro to unravel – and that would be very serious indeed.

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Show comments
  • Horiboyable .

    It will be all over soon. DB is on the hook for some derivatives
    owned by RBS and as you can see today that RBS is already in trouble
    having to sell its African operations most probably because its out of
    Tier 1 capital and RBS cant payout.
    Depositors in Italy lost their money when four banks collapsed before Christmas and Italy still has 200
    billion of NPLs it needs to hide.

    There will be a global banking melt down this year.

    The price tells you all you need to know and DB share price is telling me its gone. Its only a matter of time now. It is over for the Euro

  • Glenn Shumway

    Deutsche Bank’s derivatives exposure is reputed to be several times larger than the GDP of the entire Eurozone. That being the case, with what kind of pixie dust will “the German government” bail it out? Or in?

  • KlingonOffTheStarboardBow

    They will reap what they have sown. They chose a liar as Commission President, a slimy toad as European Parliament President, and a complete lunatic as Chancellor. They connived at the lies involved in getting Greece into the euro and have contributed to the ruin of Southern European economies.

    Sympathy is thin on the ground here ….

  • cu chulainn

    Presumably Germany would be like Ireland, who bailed out its own banks, had something of an increase in debt/GDP but no delays at the ATM. Greece is a different case.

  • Fritz123

    Interesting piece, but the shares go up again.

  • Maya

    Maybe the euro should go… in the nineties we had t-shirts (by some French magazine, I don’t remember which one) saying “I am European, but my name is not (Deutsche) Mark” – well, the Mark is now called Euro, and it still isn’t working (or fooling anybody)

  • CPWW

    What to do now ?? Cry

  • http://jacquessimon506.wordpress.com/ Simon Jacques

    Deutsche Bank is at the end of a credit cycle, if they slow the loans
    origination growth then they are toasted. DB has simply too less equity layers versus its gigantic size, is
    doomed.

  • Rob

    Germany will never allow Deutsche Bank to fail and they will not care what anybody has to say about Greece. Neither will the markets.

    • JSC

      True, but I suspect it won’t go unmissed by the Greeks and they already have something of a poor current view of Germans and their running of the EU.

  • toboot

    Now imagine what might have been should Germany have kept out of that disastrous fiscal experiment called the Euro.

  • Mike Maston

    Its all a part of the destabilising of europe by our global leaders following their own agenda for world domination and white culture haters

  • Spivy

    How interesting. I mean the idea that Merkel’s welcome mat to a million Muslims, a certain source of fear and threat, could be a convenient diversion from the far more serious political consequences of Deutsche bank collapsing. Whether this diversion was conscious or unconscious will be speculated upon if indeed the bank hits the skids.

  • Bill Sticker

    This is another sign that the EU which Cameron and co want to shackle us to is another titanic. When she slips beneath the waves we can just hope the UK is no longer on board a after June that’s a distinct possibility.

    • Rob

      The UK will be Boat 7. The crew will assure everybody that the ship won’t sink but it will be too late. Before you know it Merkel will be pointing her pistol at everybody and demanding they return to the deck.

  • Jonathan Tedd

    The Germans should speak to their Austrian neighbours. In fact we all need to take heed about commercial and central banks:

    There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

    Ludvig von Mises

  • karlitozulu

    no worries, taxpayers will save the day, capitalism is too big to fail… lol 😀

  • bilejones

    The Globalists are failing.

    The parasitic financial losers are once again exposed as the enemies of the people.

    This is a great thing for the productive middle class.

  • Alabama Mothman

    Germany is the country that needs to be balkanized. Not Greece.

    It’s started two world wars and is now on the brink of giving europe a new dictator, “merkel”.

    Enough of germany and it’s “I didnt know”.

  • Tickertapeguy

    Taking a line from the movie “Mary Poppins” – “When the banks of Europe rise, Europe rises. When the Banks of Europe fall, Europe falls”

  • Conway

    … it hardly needs to be added, the whole of Europe depends on Germany.” Are you sure it’s Europe? Are the Swiss deeply in hock to Germany? Or do you mean, as I suspect you do, the EU?

  • quotes

    Surely it’s systemically important and not systematically?

  • lakelander

    Here’s hoping.

  • Sue Smith

    Old darlings, Europe is going to collapse long before the Deutsch Bank. Get a grip please.

    • Mary Ann

      Dream on.

      • Sue Smith

        Hold that thought; you’re going to need it.

        Never before in the history of the world have so many people been on welfare – borrowed money at historically unprecedented levels! This is new and unchartered territory. If you think it’s sustainable you’re probably living on another planet.

        But keep your horse blinkers on because this obviously helps you get a good night’s sleep.

      • WTF

        You have a lot of wishful thinking but little to back it up.

    • D J

      Europe will be fine. However, I am not so confident about the EU.

    • WTF

      Yep, countries have gone to war for a lot less than is happening in Europe right now and it could end up two ways for ex-pats in the EU, they all come home because of martial law & military government as has happened before in recent history or they stay and sit it out in individual countries as they leave the EU one by one.

      • Sue Smith

        Meanwhile, Australians have visa restrictions when coming to the UK – the very same kin as most Brits!! Outrageous.

        Apparently the International Human Rights organization is responsible for the drowning of Europe under the weight of migrants. They have said the migrants ‘have a right’ to come to any country. The UN and EU can over-ride the sovereignty of each nation now. A dangerous turn of events.

  • Fix

    Germany taxpayers and politicians have been the most arrogant in the Eurozone for the past 7-8 years and demanded everybody to do the disastrous austerity measure. I cant wait to see all of them being humiliated because they themselves cannot afford to do so. That will be the biggest jokes of the year. LOL.

    • Bender the Merciful

      Think you will find if everything collapsed tomorrow, eu, UK etc the Germans and Brits would be the better off of the lot and seeing as Brits have more debts than their German counterparts I think it would be them laughing and not us. But hey ho join in with the Greeks who are taking to twitter to gloat. Because the last laugh will be had by z’germans!

  • Kasperlos

    The problem, in part, is the emergence of these too big to fail institutions. It’s a win-win situation for the exectuvies of these banks: big bonuses and losses covered by the stupid public taxpayer. All with approval from the elected representatives. So, if Deutsche goes down it will in part be the fault of the lumpen for allowing their government for having the big three (DB, Dresdner, Commerz) to run the financial banking show in Germany. The financial collapse of 2009 saw the dissolution of many smaller and regional banks that made Germany a safe place for banking. The relentless global consolidation of banking into the big 20 only increases concertration of wealth in the hands of the one percenters. They luv it. The naive public still hasn’t learnt from 2009.

  • Jonathan S

    Meted out, not metered out. Please.

  • mackykam

    Why worry? The muslims are inheriting Europe as it is!

  • post_x_it

    “That would be an acutely painful contrast, and one that could hardly fail to be missed.”
    So what you’re saying is that it will definitely be missed? What’s the problem then?
    Or did you get a bit over excited with your double negatives?

  • paulus

    Like every situation it will be self-inflicted. From an investor point of view they will want to know, are their positions in the market safe. Are the fundamentals in situ. The last thing the World needs is instability.

  • The Masked Marvel

    If Deutsche does go down, it is taking the euro down with it.

    I’m liking it already. The question is, do DB have their own Gavyn Davies to go hat in hand to the government, and is Wolfgang Schäuble willing to pull what Gordon Brown did?

    • Discuscutter

      Won’t that take Britain in to a recession that will make any downturn we have seen in the last 30 years seem like a boom.

      That is the problem with the Euro, if it collapses it will be very painful for all in Europe or that trade with it.

  • Holly

    I mentioned this a few days ago.
    Something about losses at Deutsche bank possibly being higher than what those ‘experts’ predicted, which in my dumb brain means, they could be even worse, or to be fair on the ‘experts, could be a smidgen better….
    Either way it boils down to…erm…losses.

    You can imagine my relief in finding out that I was ‘wrong’.
    Why do I think I was wrong?….
    Seeing a couple of bell ringers come out to inform us, ‘O YAY’! ‘O YAY’! ‘ALL IS WELL!’… ‘HONEST’!
    Followed up with a posts on here about it, two days on the trot.

  • MichtyMe

    What if…what if…..What if my aunt had balls would she be my uncle.

  • spiroseliot

    Welcome German to Greece!

  • MickC

    “the bank is rock solid” says DB…….never believe anything until it is officially denied…

    • Todd Unctious

      More like rocket salad than rock solid. Looks nice but is bitter and has not much substance

      • MickC

        Haha!

  • @PhilKean1

    .
    Then we have to hope against hope –

    – that Deutsche Bank collapses. Because the EU and its machinery represents a grave threat to the British people.
    .

    • PoliticallyAcceptableTarget

      Please. The biggest threat the British people face is from their own government. Absolutely no better, indeed probably worse than the bureaucrats in Brussels. The social Marxist policies of all Western countries are virtually indistinguishable, & they’re all leading to the same end.

  • Maddy Molester

    So it will collapse and take the euro with it? Two for one!

  • michael

    Being a political entity The Euro won’t unravel or be allowed to fail, likewise, Deutsche as RBS is ‘too big to be allowed fail’. Meanwhile all we can do is sit and wait for Osborne to invite Merkel to send us the bill.

  • post_x_it

    It’s ‘meted out’.

  • misomiso

    May we live in Interesting Times.

    • Hamburger

      I’d rather not.

  • Discuscutter

    If Deutsche Bank goes then the Euro will go, so will the EU and Britain’s economy will be swept over in the tidal wave.

    A top ten in the world bank, a problem for it is a problem for us all.

    We now know why the bank bailouts had to happen over the last decade, it was about protecting French and German banks who had mistakes made but if they accepted the razor of the market it would have damaged the Eu and Merkel and Sarkozy at the time.

    • London Calling

      I agree. I read the following on the Telegraph which adds insight to the problems the Banks and financial markets face…

      Here are the 13 main ingredients in the cocktail of worries playing on the market’s mind:

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/12150683/The-13-reasons-to-worry-about-European-banks.html

    • Vian

      RBS was the biggest bank in the world at the time of its collapse.

      • Discuscutter

        It was and it is still nearly the same size as DB.

        Britain’s economy is much more precarious today than it was then, Europe’s never recovered overall from the 2008 crash.

        All the bullets were used up the first time and a repeat will meet no fightback or defense. this time.

        • Vian

          The UK can’t, but Germany can because it’s not gone through that yet – the only reason for the high UK debt to GDP ratio when it was lower than Germany’s at the time. The RBS failure (and others) was as catastrophic to the UK and this would be to Germany, but the impact of RBS on the Germans was limited, in the sense that it’s the effect on the global economy rather than the specifics of it.

          • Discuscutter

            I don’t think Germany can. Its own growth rate hasn’t been spectacular.

            The danger is that while it would be able to bear the burden of DB being bailed out the shock to the financial system would have investors fleeing from supporting them.

            It would be Lehman’s again, the contagion and rolling mess did the damage.

            • Vian

              Agree it’s the contagion that’s the danger. Sorry, I should have been more specific – Germany can physically afford it in the same way that UK could afford it, but that the damage in doing so is horrendou.

  • Liberanos

    It’s becoming more and more difficult for an economy of our size to stay out of the Euro in perpetuity while remaining in the EU. The pressure for us to help prop it up will inevitably grow. Yet another reason for getting out.

    • jim

      Hard to feel sorry for the Germans. Smart people are rarely this stupid…or is it just teutonic arrogance?

      • Andre

        the later comes close, the Germans are “Systemdenker” they think in swarms and then do not divulge – therefore no critical out of the box thinking is supported (similar to the Japanese)

        If the Cuba Crisis had been between Germans and Cuba/Soviet union, the world would no be glass

      • commenteer

        It’s the same death wish that produced two world wars in the twentieth century. Europe to be ruined yet again by the Germans. Mrs Thatcher was absolutely right to oppose re-unification.

    • Deckard_Cain

      As a portuguese I just have to tell you this: get out while you can.
      Our Prime-Minister will give you an opportunity since he will reject the concessions made by the European Comission to Cameron if the behaviour of Schauble doesn’t change regarding Portugal.

  • rtj1211

    There have stories about Deutsche being massively exposed to the derivatives market for years. To date, nothing has caused meltdown.

    I suspect that most would say that if Deutsche needs a bail-out, its senior bankers either need sacking or salary haircuts of 95%. Problem is: the system is so endemically corrupt that the incompetence won’t be punished…….

    • Andre

      Have a look at the derivative exposure of the large banks, virtually no difference between DB and Morgan Stanley, JPM, Goldman,BoA etc

      Have a look at the derivative exposure in Britain, if any of these blow up we will be hit the hardest

  • AndyTheScientist

    Isn’t this just more speculation. We want to know if Deutsche bank is in trouble or not, not what would or wouldn’t happen if it was.

    • Discuscutter

      When its shares are collapsing in price it could come in to trouble that way.

    • Todd Unctious

      It holds 40% of Greek debt. The Greeks are busy not repaying these loans.

    • polidorisghost

      I think that the problem with modern finance is that nobody has the faintest idea who the patsy is until the music stops and we get to unwrap the presents.

      • Brimstone52

        When the music is playing we’re all too busy enjoying it to pay attention to anything else.

        When it stops, we discover someone has nicked all the chairs and at the end of the evening when the pressies are handed out, we discover that the packaging contains only warmish air.

  • Control Freak

    “The cost of a rescue would blow Germany’s debt to GDP ratio – currently 71 percent – through the roof. The rules it has been so fiercely enforcing for everyone else would turn out to be conveniently forgotten
    about for itself.”

    The author has himself forgotten (or not bothered to find out) that this has already happened. At the advent of the Euro, Germany insisted on the Stability and Growth Pact, in an effort to allay its fears that the Euro would be used by what it saw as feckless Club Med countries as an excuse for a debt fuelled binge. However, the first countries to break the pact were…. Germany and France. What happened? To Germany and France – nothing. But the consequences were to sow the seeds of destruction. As an article in Spiegel Online explains:

    “The German-French initiative effectively did away with the Stability and Growth Pact, which the Germans had forced their partners to sign. The consequences were fatal. If the two biggest economies in the euro zone weren’t abiding by the rules, why should anyone else?”

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-ticking-euro-bomb-how-the-euro-zone-ignored-its-own-rules-a-790333.html

    • Todd Unctious

      Deutsche will need about £30 billion. That will add only 2% to the German debt to GDP.

      • ClausewitzTheMunificent

        £30 billion isn’t enough to cause DB to collapse. We’re talking hundreds of billions.

        • Todd Unctious

          Deutsche has a hole in its balance sheet of just over £330 billion. The ECB requires a 10 to 1 debt to assets ratio, so it requires £33 billion of taxpayer bailout.

  • Wessex Man

    I don’t care about it taking down the Euro, I do have a worry that it will take down our bankers who have-one bought into it massively- two have probably been told by our Dave to help rescue it.

    • Blindsideflanker

      If the cost to our economy of the collapse of the EU Euro project wasn’t going to be so high it would be nice to see it happen to see the likes of Goldman Sachs have their noses rubbed in it.

    • In2minds

      “told by our Dave to help rescue it” –

      But who told our Dave, Merkel?

    • Hamburger

      If it does fail uncontrollably then it will hurt you too.

      • polidorisghost

        My allotment is prepared, my beer is brewing and morris dancing with a fine women keeps me warm.
        The mad amongst us shall survive.

        • hobspawn

          Don’t neglect home defence.

          • polidorisghost

            What do you suggest?

    • Discuscutter

      If it goes down as a result of DB collapsing then the British economy will tank as well, it would make 2007-8 seem like paradise.

  • Blindsideflanker

    Don’t put all your eggs in one basket was advice that had some common sense. The EU Euro project is something that flies in the face of this common sense, in doing so removed the strength that is achieved with diversifying and spreading risk. The EU project leaders gambled EU nations future on their infallibility , and would appear to have lost.

  • Ron Todd

    All those people that are predicting disaster if we leave the EU are largely the same people that were predicting disaster if we did not join the Euro.

    • telemachus

      Ron, old chap
      What as that to do with Deutch Bank
      *
      The biggest tragedy for Merkel is that she does not have Gordon to show her how to sort this out

      • Maddy Molester

        It’s pretty relevant.

        • Todd Unctious

          Is there something wrong with you? Or are you just an utter git?

      • Ron Todd

        If we had joined the Euro and the Deutch bank did go under we would go with it.

        Let me guess Gordon’s answer would involve spending other peoples money and increasing our debt.

        • telemachus

          He saved RBS and Lloyds

          He save Freddy May and Freddy Mac

          And European banks

          And put our whole economy on an even keel

          “He has been widely credited for his prominent role in the G20 rescue operation for the world’s economic and financial system in the face of the crisis of 2007-2008, and less wisely credited for delivering the British economy to the Conservative/ Liberal Democrat Coalition in much better shape than they ever acknowledged.”
          http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/william-keegan-gordon-brown-saved-britain-may-even-have-saved-world-1476333

          • Hamburger

            That tops your comment above.

            • mike53

              I have been reading teletubbies comments for a while now, and I have come to the conclusion that he has to be a plant by the Spectator, surely nobody is this crazy.

              • Fraser Bailey

                You could be right.

              • Hamburger

                I see him as an ironist, not up to Voltaire’s standard but still amusing. He may be a plant too, but I think it is unlikely. We should cherish him.

                • Terry Field

                  I don’t like ironing; I prefer the laundry.

              • Desperate Dan’s Porridge

                You are correct in my opinion. No sentient being could possibly be that unintentionally stupid.

              • Wessex Man

                You haven’t read Victor’s comments yet then?

              • polidorisghost

                “surely nobody is this crazy.”

                My wife was a teacher, so I can explain what has happened to our little greek boy.
                My wife was required to write reports by selecting comments from an approved list of appropriate statements.
                As the years rolled by, and overwhelmed by the sheer futility of it all, she started to deploy comments at random, giggling as she went and muttering gnomically under her breath “Let Chardonney’s mummy make sense of this”.

            • Makroon

              Indeed, but we must resist the temptation to feed the troll.

          • Ron Todd

            Sorry no money left was the state he left us in.

          • CharlietheChump

            You’ve stopped taking your medicine again haven’t you?

          • MAKE_ANYWHERE_GREAT_AGAIN

            Fannie.

          • polidorisghost

            “He saved RBS and Lloyds
            He save Freddy May and Freddy Mac
            And European banks”

            No he didn’t – we did – our money.
            You’re worse at PR than Cameron.
            Brexit do not need a “leader” with you pair around.
            Well, you just keep strutting your stuff.

          • Wessex Man

            He saved the world tele babe, he saved the world! hallelujah! hallelujah! back in those halcyon days of golden memory. The Banks and Institutions flourished after Comrade Gordy freed them from all control.

            Can you believe it tele? those ungrateful curs of the electorate dumped him after all his herculean efforts on their behalf, why they even unfairly taped his comment about the pensioner Duffy, who was obviously a plant to discredit him in the eyes of the comrades!

            Power to the people Foxy tele!

          • ButcombeMan

            Next we will have tele’s eulogy, to “the Charismatic One”.

            Regular readers will know that is one Ed Balls, whose lack of a sane economic strategy was largely responsible for Labour’s dismal showing in the 2005 election.

            tele certainly knows how to back a winner.

          • Conway

            Freddy May? What happened to Fanny?

          • hobspawn

             “He saved RBS and Lloyds
            He save Freddy May and Freddy Mac
            And European banks
            And put our whole economy on an even keel”

            Not yet.

            • telemachus

              Until Osborne choked off Capital spending on accession

          • Cassandrina

            You have forgotten Northern Rock which was a political decision to save Labour voter clients. RBS (Scottish Labour voters) and Lloyds followed so he continued to waste money on them.
            I hope your listing above is ironic as Freddy and FANNY were out of our jurisdiction.

        • The Masked Marvel

          He’d sell the country’s stake in whatever DB was over-leveraged on, but make sure to announce it first so the price drops dramatically.

          • telemachus

            Gordon kept us out

            Gordon Brown has said he was prepared to quit as Chancellor soon after Labour took office in 1997 if the government decided to join the euro.

            He was “ready to resign” if he could not persuade colleagues, including Tony Blair, of the “grave risks” of signing up to the single currency at that time.

            The disclosure is included in Mr Brown’s new account of the 2008 banking crisis which has just been published.
            http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11947831

            • The Masked Marvel

              You are pretending what Brown did with gold for Goldman Sachs didn’t happen. People will notice.

            • Joe Thorpe

              He kept us out of a currency he helped finance with OUR GOLD RESERVES!

            • Space 1999

              Hmmm… that’s a tricky one.

              Britain in the Euro vs. Gordon Brown as Chancellor for 10 years. Not sure which would be more damaging to Britain.

            • Mary Ann

              The Tories like to blame Brown for everything including the collapse of the housing market in the US and for Maggie de-regulating banking here.

              • Wessex Man

                Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! watch out Mrs tele babe, things are getting hot here!

              • ButcombeMan

                You should stick to EU matters Mary Ann, this stuff is too complicated for you

              • polidorisghost

                Trouble is,it’s plausible even if a little exaggerated.
                Brown is the clown who abolished boom and bust.
                Yup siree, that’s what he did.
                You can’t have forgotten already

                • Todd Unctious

                  How is it plausible that Brown caused a meltdown in the US housing market or the worldwide collapse of over exposed banks. What exactly did he do Given that Britain represents about 2% of the global economy.

                • Cassandrina

                  Bill Clinton caused the US housing collapse by enacting a law allowing Freddy Mac and Fanny Mae to give house mortgages to people who could not afford them, and who did so without vetting them.

              • Todd Unctious

                Yes. They love to say all the problems they now face are due to Gordon Brown as Chancellor from 2000 to 2007. It is wearing pretty thin now. In six years Osborne has increased our debt by £650 billion. Or £13,000 for every adult in the UK.

              • Cassandrina

                The loony left blame “Fatcher” for everything bad, even now.

            • Maureen Fisher

              Actually it was Major who kept us out.

              • Conway

                He got us an opt out, but as we know from past experience, that often isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on (or not, as the case may be). Any chancellor could decide voluntarily to take us in, as Cameron opted us in to the EAW, although he wasn’t obliged to.

          • Cassandrina

            Just as he did with out gold? Brownsian economics is to increase the price when demand goes down after which he saved the world.
            Brown was the worst UK PM in living history.

        • Discuscutter

          If Britain had joined the Euro the whole thing would have collapsed in 2008.

          In fairness to Gordon he kept out of the Euro and that was a wise move.

          • Duke_Bouvier

            At the time Brown just wanted to control the timing of entry, so that it would be his historic achievement and not Blair’s. He was lucky in that it because obviously a bad idea before he had the opportunity to do it.

        • Tom M

          I agree with what you posted up top but would add that yes we had to bail out RBS but if we’d been in the Euro I suspect it would be RBS AND Deutsche Bank.

      • Holly

        The even bigger tragedy is, even if she did, she’d still manage to somehow fcuk it up.
        It’s a gift that the morons in charge seem to be blessed with at the moment.
        Our morons included!

      • Hamburger

        You have written some very amusing comments, that was one of your best.

        • telemachus

          Because it is true??

          • Hamburger

            No, because I have a dark sense of humour.

          • CharlietheChump

            Those who have control of you should seriously consider having you sectioned. It’s the kindest thing to do.

            • Wessex Man

              but we would miss him and his kindly words of wisdom.

              • hobspawn

                 “but we would miss him and his kindly words of wisdom.”

                …or have an intelligent discourse for once.

      • Desperate Dan’s Porridge

        Proof if proof were needed that you are just some ridiculous agent provocateur. No sentient being would make such a ridiculous comment and actually mean it. Priceless.

      • ButcombeMan

        That really made me smile.

        The “Great Leader” and “telephone thrower”, prime cause of “The Big Brown Mess”. The most incompetent Chancellor since WW2.

        He eliminated “Boom and Bust”.

        He sold our gold off cheap.

        The first Uk Bank failure in over 130 years, Northern Rock, on his watch and under his regulatory system. Obvious for years it was coming yet he did nothing.

        Thank you tele for the opportunity.

    • Davedeparis

      Good point Ron.

    • nouveaulite

      I find the commentary about the state of foreign banks, and the conclusions drawn from that here in this forum, outright juvenile. Have you no recollection of the not so distant past?

      • Ron Todd

        Yes I do have a recollection of the recent past. I recall the chaos when banks fail. I recall the EU changing a constitution to a treaty. I recall the EU attitude when countries did not vote the at they were supposed to in referendums. Ans I recall what a pathetic deal Cameron claims to have got from the EU. None of what I remember makes me want to be in the Euro or in the EU when the Deutsche bank has problems. None of it makes me want to be the EU at all.

        • flipkipper

          Rant rant rant rant rant.
          You have no recollection of the past.
          7 trillion were missing in the coffers of UK banks.
          7 trillion.
          The taxpayer had to bail them out for gambling as real people and the housing market were certainly NOT to blame. But you lapped up whatever other bull dung these banksters wanted to make you believe, and then you believed it.

          Now you are paying the price, laddy.
          Rant rant rant rant rant on.

          • Ron Todd

            Is ‘Rant rant rant…’ a rant? Calm down dear go back to the gin.

            I am saying banks collapsing is bad something you would seem to agree with in a rather incoherent way. If that is what is going to happen in Germany the further we are distanced from it politically and economically the better.

            • flipkipper

              On and on you rant rant rant.
              You have no recollection of the past.
              7 trillion were missing from the coffers of UK banks.
              What then happened was…

              • Ron Todd

                I think we are agreed that banks going bust are bad. Where is your evidence that I ‘ lapped up whatever other bull dung these banksters wanted to make you believe, and then you believed it.’

                • flipkipper

                  In your first comment which reads “All those people that are predicting disaster if we leave the EU are largely the same people that were predicting disaster if we did not join the Euro.”

                  This is not only untrue, it’s not funny either, which means that you are here to gloss over the fact that SEVEN TRILLION went missing from the coffers of UK banks and you are still paying off that debt today laddy. That’s why you cannot afford to pay junior doctors, remember?

                • Ron Todd

                  CBI and lib dems come to mind. . From my second post ‘I recall the chaos when banks fail….’ In what way am I glossing over problems with banks
                  If you are going back to intentionally misrepresenting what I say I am going back to ignoring you.

                • flipkipper

                  As I pointed to to you, repeatedly, your unfunny non-fact fallacy is what got us talking. I know it will take some time to digest the criticism, I am however hopeful that you and many others will get me.

                • eat your greens

                  As you pointed out correctly, the chaos at Deutsche is clear and evident proof that gambling bankers are the cause of the banking crisis, which is not a credit crisis, or a credit crunch, or the be resolved by public ownership and austerity. The German economy is generating a de facto 4% increase in wealth per annum. They are not broke. Deutsche gambled in Vegas and lost. Split them up into little Sparkassen.

                • Makroon

                  The assumption of the blog-post – that Deutsche Bank will go down – is a very large stretch indeed.
                  But “what it looks like” to the Med countries is really not an issue, the financially literate are all signed up to the project and won’t rock the boat, and the humble citizenry clutch on to their small stash of Euros, as the best available lifeboat.
                  The Euro is the Catch 22 for ‘cub Med’.

                • Ron Todd

                  I hope our leaders have a plan in place for whatever happens.

                • janetjH

                  I’m sure that they have a very good plan for their survival, and enrichment.
                  However I suspect that you and I aren’t included.

                • KlingonOffTheStarboardBow

                  Their plan B is

                  A) print a lot more money – (pity we can’t do that at home)

                  B) steal a lot more of OUR money

                  C) blame it all on: the Anglo-Saxons, not having enough “Europe”, the credit ratings agencies, China, anyone else they can think of.

                  Not a bad plan, actually. After all, they’ve used it so often before.

                • Terry Field

                  You on the sauce, toddy old cocker???

                • Ron Todd

                  I did have some HP on my chips. And less of the old.

                • Roger Hudson

                  Britain and Europe had more than enough banks, let them go bust, pay the 100k euro depositor insurance and move on. The best bit of DB, the bit they want to get rid of, is DPostbank, the best retail bit, madness.
                  No more bank bailouts.

            • hobspawn

               “I am saying banks collapsing is bad…”

              Bank bail-outs are much more ‘bad’ than bank collapses.

              Bank hands on trickery to bank,
              It deepens like a coastal shelf,
              Get out timely if you can,
              And don’t save any banks yourself.

          • Johnnydub

            7 Trillion? Why not just say a bazillion gazillion?

            Leftist nonsense…

            • flipkipper

              3 days it took to figure that out?
              Jesus, all you trolls had a nice weekend then init bruv.

        • Mary Ann

          But you wouldn’t want to be in Europe even if there had been no recession.

          • Ron Todd

            I want to be in a properly democratic Europe that has a level of unity and no more that is agreed upon by the general consensus of the people of Europe not just their political masters.

          • Conway

            We’ll be in Europe (more accurately, just off the coast) whether there’s a recession or not, unless the tectonic plates shift. Don’t be sloppy in your terminology.

          • WTF

            The recession hit the PIIGS far more than the UK and we even helped bail out Eire despite not being in the Euro. Why should we be caught bailing out EU countries. Better looking after our own than fiddling the numbers as the EU did to allow Greece and others into the Euro club or have you forgotten that.

      • Bender the Merciful

        I completely agree and insinuating Euro only works for Germans is silly. As to being bailed out it is different from Greece aas it has an economy and wealth as well as ability to repay debts, where as Greek govt had no money, banks had no money and neither did the people of Greece. Hence why the UK wants no part of another bailout. Essentially it has been an exercise of robbing Peter to pay Paul.ie the robbing of Germans to pay Greeks.

        • Dickie Dawkins

          I think it’s more like the robbing of Greeks (people) to pay Germans (banks). Greece has not stolen anything, its corrupt politicians borrowed from corrupt, mainly, German banksters and now we see how corrupt the banksters are as it’s all unravelling in front of our very eyes. Karma is a beetch is it not?

    • Gilbert White

      Salaries for the elite are the unknown?

      • janetjH

        But rather large!

    • AP

      but that adds up right?

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