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Boris Johnson supplants Osborne as bookmakers’ favourite for next Tory leader

21 February 2016

5:01 PM

21 February 2016

5:01 PM

The Mayor has not even filed his Daily Telegraph column yet, but Ladbrokes has announced that he is now the favourite to succeed David Cameron. As the above graph shows, his chances have been steadily increasing as George Osborne overplayed his hand: first, by posing as the heir assumptive, and then by various missteps (like praising Google’s tax deal).

The ‘out’ campaign is still seen as likely to lose the EU Referendum, but the next Tory leader will be selected by a Tory Party membership who will be about 70 per cent for ‘out’. Michael Gove, famously, has very little leadership ambition; Liam Fox won’t stand again and Iain Duncan Smith has had enough of all that to last a lifetime. So Boris Johnson is, now, the most obvious ‘out’ candidate.


Screen Shot 2016-02-20 at 01.33.23

Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman will be discussing the EU Referendum campaign campaign with pollster Ben Page from Ipsos Mori on Monday 21 March. Tickets, for subscribers only, are on sale now. To subscribe from £1 a week, click here.

Show comments
  • UnhygienixTheFishmonger

    If ‘in’ wins then what is the point of having an ‘out’ leader? The people will have spoken and that will have to be respected. This only matters if ‘out’ wins, which may happen but I suspect is unlikely.

  • Zanderz

    Gove, Fox and IDS – my DreamTeam!

  • justejudexultionis

    Donald Trump as US President and Boris Johnson as UK Prime Minister – it’s like something out of Hieronymous Bosch.

    • MacGuffin

      The hair, you mean?

  • jeffersonian

    Why the Osborne-part of our national humpty-dumpty double act deserve to follow his boss is a mystery. How can be viewed as anything but hugely overrated?

    Two words: the deficit

  • frank davidson

    Teresa May will be kicking herself especially as she is (was) a proper Euro sceptic.

    • The Masked Marvel

      No, she wasn’t.

  • JewishKuffar

    Whatever happens we must not allow a smooth ‘Tony Blair to Gordon Brown’ -style transfer from Cameron to Osborne. A full leadership contest, and let’s have a few new hats in the ring.

  • Radford_NG

    At least Le Grand Boris isn’t an ideologue……..(or is he?).

  • Freddythreepwood

    ‘Out, damned spot! out, I say!

  • davidofkent

    If the economic news pundits are correct, George Osborne is shortly going to make himself the enemy of the middle classes and ensure that in twenty or thirty years’ time, nobody has a decent pension. If he does remove the tax advantages of saving for a pension, he will guarantee the longevity of BTL under corporate management. He will then be hated by prospective FTBs as well.

    • Johnnydub

      Well his tax changes on BTL make that a tough play as well.

      This is the issue with Cameron conservatives – they’re not conservatives, they’re just as spendthrift and tax-happy as Gordoom Brown.

  • Span Ows

    I can see an outline of Maggie in those graph lines!

    • Jupiter

      It’s only missing the handbag

  • rtj1211

    Please will you media wordsmiths serve the British people and focus on the matter at hand, rather than betraying them focussing on pathetic little party squabbles which may or may not happen in 2 years time…..??

  • X Trapnel

    heir consumptive…?!

  • UnionJihack

    The generic phrase ‘popcorn time’ doesn’t even begin to cover it, Fraser.

    • telemachus

      I am appalled at the column inches given to Gove, Johnson and Hannan

      • Radford_NG

        As opposed to those who have fought the fight (right or wrong) for decades?

        • telemachus

          The only fight that matters now
          Is the fight for a bright future for our grandchildren in Europe

          • Johnnydub

            Against whom? The Muslim colonists seems most likely…

      • jeffersonian


  • fred finger

    Given the vote is ‘OUT’; Gove is the next PM.

    • Trini’s dad

      Aaasborne bratha, never underestimmate di Aaasborne.