Coffee House

How can Cameron save the Conservatives? Daniel Hannan, Lord Tebbit and Andrew Roberts respond

3 September 2014

4:25 PM

3 September 2014

4:25 PM

We asked Daniel Hannan, Lord Tebbit and historian Andrew Roberts what – if anything – David Cameron could do to rescue his party. Here’s what they had to say:

Daniel Hannan, MEP

At this stage in the Parliament, there are no legislative tricks to pull out of the hat. In any case, as far as policy goes, David Cameron has got the basics right: lower spending, welfare reform, free schools, support for enterprise.

But it all risks being thrown away because of a divided Centre-Right vote. Ukip will do to the Conservatives what the SDP did to Labour 30 years ago. Our first-past-the-post system doesn’t allow space for two competing parties on the same side of the political spectrum. Think of the result at the Eastleigh by-election. Two Right-of-Centre, Eurosceptic candidates, standing on virtually identical platforms, secured 53 per cent of the vote between them and both lost, leaving a Euro-integrationist Liberal Democrat to win the seat with 32 per cent. Multiply Eastleigh by 50 or 100 and you give Ed Miliband a comfortable majority on a paltry share of the vote.

Both Ukip and the Conservatives have ruled out a formal pact. But some form of accommodation, at least in the most marginal seats, is the logical consequence of our electoral system. Foreign observers are usually incredulous that it hasn’t already happened. The thing holding it back is not electoral calculation, but animosity – or, on the Tory side, a kind of political fastidiousness that borders almost on snobbery.

[Alt-Text]


If Balls and Miliband get in again, intent on emptying our Treasury, reversing the welfare reforms and, not least, cancelling our in/out referendum – if all this happens simply because of personal rivalries, it will reflect badly on all concerned.

Lord Tebbit

Especially with the outcome of the Scottish referendum in doubt, there is a lot at stake for Mr Cameron. He could have declined to oppose Mr Carswell at the Clacton by-election. Having ruled that out the Tories must win, or his own position might be at risk.

He could try to undermine Ukip’s campaign by bringing forward a referendum bill – challenging Lib Dems and Labour to defeat it – and by setting out the essential Treaty changes without which he would campaign for Brexit at the referendum

That might be seen as a sign of weakness, just giving in to pressure from Ukip rather than a genuine response to recent events in Brussels. I think he will probably continue to rely on the theme, ‘If you vote Ukip you’ll get Labour and no referendum’, hoping to win by a big enough majority to shore up his position.

It is a high-risk tactic, but there are no low risk ones.

Andrew Roberts

David Cameron once saved my life from a school of Portuguese man’o’war jellyfish, so now’s the time for me to save his political life with this advice: Do Nothing. The British people are a fair-minded lot; they will give you another term in office because you and George Osborne have delivered the best growth rates in Europe despite the monstrous overspending and boom-bust of the Blair-Brown years. Every newly incoming ministry since the war has been re-elected – except that of Ted Heath, which broke all the rules anyhow – and your one will be too. The old motto from your wing of the Tory party, ‘Trust the people’, will see you through.

Douglas Carswell is an intelligent man who has made a stupid mistake. Whether he gets re-elected for Ukip, and however many Tory MPs follow him if he does, the electorate knows that if it wants a referendum on Europe it has to vote Tory. Clacton and everywhere else will revert to serious rather than protest votes in the general election, because that is the time that the British people sober up and make serious choices for the future. They will support the prime minister who is calm in crises, doesn’t offer new punitive taxes, promises them a referendum on Europe, and isn’t Ed Miliband. Which is you, David.  To over-react to the Ukip threat now would undermine the first of these attributes, and is not a mistake your hero Harold Macmillan would have made.

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Show comments
  • Mrs Josephine Hyde-Hartley

    A first past th post electoral system is the best way to continue, i think. It’s obvious.

    • Ludo

      If one party got 1% of the vote in more than half the constituencies of the country, and in those constituencies that 1% was the largest vote, a party could form a government having received only half a percent of all votes cast.

      FPTP is a disgrace. It’s a fraud perpetrated by London to keep power for itself.

    • Fred Smith

      I disagree. It produces rival teams headed by cliques who have more in common with themselves than those they pretend to represent as we can see generally in the Western world. Hence we have the disgusting spectacle of Labour dynasties and various issues of central importance such as the EU (parliament giving away the powers to rule ourselves which are not properly in its gift), and mass immigration (we might think it’s good, we might think it’s bad, we might have no particular view – but we weren’t bloody asked and pains were taken to dismiss our views).

      I’d far rather have a system of direct democracy, where the important decisions are referred to us, and politicians don’t count for much because we constrain them, but they can get on with the tedious business of government; not posturing on the world stage at our expense. Whether the politicians were elected by FPTP or some system of PR really wouldn’t matter because they didn’t matter very much.

  • Ludo

    These southern Tories don’t get it. I’ve always voted for them at general elections but I will be voting UKIP in May. There’s so little that separates Labour & Tory that I’m not bothered which gets in.

    I’m a little tempted to vote for Labour as a tactical vote to help rid our constituency of Tory vermin, but I’m going to stick with UKIP and vote for the party I want in power.

  • Richard N

    When other countries outside the EU already have a free trade agreement with the EU crooks, what possible argument remains for Britain to remain inside the crumbling EU – when the ONLY argument the entire EU puppet establishment in Britain have come up with to stay in the EU is for access to the single market?!

  • icini

    Quit with the only way for a referendum is to vote Tory. It is utterly impossible to renegotiate anything worthwhile, we all know it, including Cameron. The only way forward for him to achieve his goal of remaining in the EU is to cheat and he will.
    What use is a referendum if it’s not based on a fair question and honesty in the campaign. The only way to get out of the EU is to vote UKIP, there is no alternative.

  • HamtunscireKippa

    David Cameron cant save them, I think that is the point. Cameron and his chums have an arrogance about them that just plays into the hands of UKIP. He continues to irritate both UKIP converts and potential Tory converts, I cant decide if he is doing it on purpose or whether he really is that ignorant, hard to say.
    The trouble now is that Cameron has proven himself as a man who will say whatever he thinks he needs to for a poll rating which has lead to him now being seen as totally untrustworthy. Once you lose the trust, it doesnt matter what you say and what Carswell has said about his view from within the Tory ranks has simply reinforced that.
    The whole vote UKIP, get Labour has so little traction and if the best argument that Cameron can make for the Tories is that they are not as bad as Labour, it isnt really any wonder that people dont feel inspired by it. He is just saying he doesnt have any positive vision so lets try and scare the little people.

  • Lady Magdalene

    Complacency, thy name is Andrew Roberts.
    Cameron hasn’t a hope of winning a majority. At best (and even that’s unlikely) he will have the largest number of MPs.

  • Terry Field

    I listened to Cameron this morning being interviewed about ISIS and the Levant.
    I am a natural conservative and would be a natural voter for him BUT
    as usual, and like Blair, this morning, rather than telling the British the real truth about the Middle East, and informing them of the real strategic tribal and religious condition of the place, he simply REPEATEDLY LIED and threw up really quite incredible smokescreens.
    If he believed the guff he came out with then he is Blair but not so good. If he lied and actually KNOWS the reality there, then START TELLING THE TRUTH AND STOP TREATING PEOPLE WITH UTTER PATRONISING CONTEMPT.
    I expect that from the dreadful BBC, but NOT from a British Prime Minister.
    And that is why the Scots may well leave the union. Lies are the undoing of any political position.

  • The Bilkonian

    Sorry all of you, but the COnservative party is conservative in name only, which is one of the reasons that I left after 27 years and joined UKIP.

    If Cameron is SERIOUS about winning next years election, he has only one shot and that is to hold an In/Out EU Referendum on General Election Day, that’s it..

    Regardless of how lamentable the Fascist Left Labour Party and their bedfellows, the anti-smitic LibDems are, the electorate will swallow the lies, the slogans and the “freebie” electoral bribes, paid for with borrowed and Other People’s Money.

    The Conservative Party is a hostile environment to the likes of Douglas Carswell and similar, likewise free thinkers in the Labour party, which is why more will “stand down”, “spend more time with their families”, leave or join UKIP.

    If Cameron is SERIOUS about winning in 2015, then that REFERENDUM is his only chance, while at the same time he will stop UKIP in its tracks. His pouring scorn on us former Tories in UKIP makes him look churlish and weak, when it is Labour and the LibDems who are the entrenched sworn enemies of this country.

    Cameron’s childish attacks on UKIP actually strengthens our resolve, insults millions of conservative and freedom minded electors who deserted an increasing left-wing Tory Party and makes any alliances difficult, yeet he is in bed with the hard left, anti family LibDems.

    Lord Tebbit, I have met and spoken with you several times and have great respect for you, but on this you are wrong and if the Conservative Party keeps alienating and attacking its natural supporters and driving them to UKIP, it will not be our fault, but that of the Wets, arrogant we-know-what’s-best-for-you over-educated dolts and lily-livered “progressive”, freedom stealing, closet socialists who infest the upper echelons of the Party.

    The alternative, of the Unite bought-and-paid-for and Common Purpose infested, petty revolutionary packed, Marxist indoctrinated Labour party led by that nasal, humourless Hamas loving pillock Miliband and his band of thieves winning next year is too horrible to countenance.

    Suffice it to say, with the pudding-faced Len McCluskey pulling the strings with his Hamas/Che/Castro/Mugabe/Arafat/Mao revolutionary “brothers and sistahs”, we will be back to the 70s basket case that we were, and worse, as anyone opposing it will be hounded mercilessly.

    You have been warned. You’d better have a word in Camerons shell-like……

    • Fred Smith

      “If Cameron is SERIOUS about winning next years election, he has only one
      shot and that is to hold an In/Out EU Referendum on General Election
      Day, that’s it..”.

      What he really doesn’t want to do is have to leave the EU. Winning the GE is just a nice to have in comparison.

      There are only two options with the EU, in and out. This has been made abundantly clear by leading figures in the EU, and is obvious from the treaties. The Tories have spun a comforting and dishonest fantasy of a half-way house, where the UK picks the bits of the EU it wants. They’ve used this to glue the Conservative Party together, as the EU, being a binary question, has always had the potential to split the party in two.

      The plan is that should they win the next GE, they can pretend to have negotiated something or other and do a Wilson with the aid of the BBC etc. That’s one of the reasons for setting the date of the referendum in 2017. A referendum straight after the GE would give no scope for pretending there had been negotiations and concessions and the huge campaign to keep us in. That’s why it won’t happen.

      I’ve always been of the view that the referendum was only offered because they know the next GE is lost anyway. If the polls had been more promising, they wouldn’t have talked about ‘Europe’ at all.

  • Chingford Man

    Is Andrew Roberts still based in America? He doesn’t seem to have any clue that Cameron has already passed the point of no return.

  • mhjames

    ‘Douglas Carswell is an intelligent man who has made a stupid mistake’, says Andrew Roberts.

    If Carswell has lost faith in the Conservatives and now agrees with UKIP, what’s the mistake in acting on those sentiments? Doesn’t he have an obligation to his constituents to do so by seeking re-election?

    If the people of Clacton do re-elect him, will they be making ‘a stupid mistake’ too?

    People’s political preferences and choices are not ‘right’ or ‘wrong’, but just facts.

  • evad666

    The economy is recovering is it? That must be all that Muslim led organized child prostitution having a nett positive economic benefit then.
    Vote UKIP get Labour? do you really think people cannot see the truth Vote Labour or Conservative get uncontrolled Muslim criminals and terrorists.

  • Mark B

    Resign and put a real Conservative in charge. But that of course will never happen. So Plan B is to see the death of this treacherous party and its Quislings.

  • chouenlai

    I have not done a profile be cause who I am is nobodies business but mine. However, having had 40 E-Mails from two half wits called “George Smilley” and “Wessex Man”,
    I thought I would set the record straight. For the benefit of other posters, I promise the comments they made are repetitive “vote con get lab ect ect” or just pure rubbish of a personal nature. After all this crap, Wessex man has the bloody cheek to tell Simon Denis not to resort to childish rude comments.For the benefit of Viceroys Gin I am not a lad, I am 68 years old. I went to a Grammar School, my parents were lower middle class certainly not rich. I was in the Royal Engineers for 7 years in NI mostly. Much of my time in an airborne sqn. My civilian career was in the Pension and Life assurance business and I rose to Divisional Director level in a very large company.I retired at 58 and have since done charity work for the Army Benevolent Fund and I am an officer of my constituency Conservative party. The buffoon who calls himself George Smiley, cannot get his head around me calling myself chou enlai, he thinks I am a Chinese spy. By the way “George” I born in Hackney of entirely British parents, although there is French on both sides if you go back far enough, forgive me for that.

    Finally because I have many of the same views as sensible Kippers, these idiots really fcuk your reputation.

  • Aberrant_Apostrophe

    How can Cameron save the Conservatives?

    I assume this refers the current Tory party, rather than people with Conservative values. IMO, the problem is not so much that people are leaving the Conservative Party as the latter is leaving the former, hence why Carswell has jumped upwards and the SS Tory Canyon has drifted away from underneath him.

  • Jacques Strap

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/proposal-to-expand-build-35m-homes-in-40-uk-towns-wins-250000-wolfson-prize-9709721.html

    Another boost for UKIP. Immigration vs the countryside.

    2050 – welcome to the city state of England…..

  • saffrin

    The thing is Dan, Norman, Andy, the electorate know the Houses of Parliament is infested with career troughers.
    It time for a sweep-out.
    Labour, Lib/Dem, Tory, you’ve disgraced yourselves in the eyes of the public and it’s time to go.

    • stevetierney

      Yeah, sweep the troughers out, and replace them with bigger troughers and racists. Great plan.

      • saffrin

        Labour are included in my comment.

  • Monima O’Connor

    Reading his saccharine, fawning article, I wonder perhaps if the diminutive Andrew Roberts is hoping for a peerage

    • stevetierney

      Or maybe, just maybe, he holds a different opinion to you? No! Impossible.

      • Monima O’Connor

        Yes, Steve Tierney, you are right that I hold a different opinion but suspicions rise at Andrew Robert’s Over-The-Top, fawning, cloying article – when we know he can write sometimes quite sensibly.

  • Mike Barnes

    “Think of the result at the Eastleigh by-election. Two Right-of-Centre, Eurosceptic candidates, standing on virtually identical platforms”

    Not really. One party would like us to withdraw from the EU immediately. The other party will perhaps give us a referendum in 3 years time, once they’ve renegotiated something or other, and then they will campaign to stay in the EU.

    The parties are about as identical as Danny Devito and Arnold Schwarzenegger in Twins.

    • stevetierney

      Good comparison, Danny. : )

  • Conway

    Do Nothing. The British people are a fair-minded lot; they will give you another term in office …” Doing nothing is not an option. I agree, the British are a fair-minded lot (that is, the ones who are not just British in name only), but they will see what has been done to this country and realise that enough is enough. Those that know what’s what will realise that the debt is still growing and the deficit has only been cut by a small amount. We are borrowing to give away. They’ll also be pretty annoyed that their vacuum cleaners won’t suck up the dog hairs any more.

  • Conway

    Think of the result at the Eastleigh by-election. Two Right-of-Centre,
    Eurosceptic candidates, standing on virtually identical platforms,
    secured 53 per cent of the vote between them and both lost …
    ” thanks to postal votes. UKIP won at the ballot box but lost once the postal votes were in. Nobody should have a postal vote unless they are unavoidably absent on polling day, housebound through frailty or ill health or hospitalised.

    • hamurana

      Agreed +1

  • Conway

    He could try to undermine Ukip’s campaign by bringing forward a
    referendum bill – challenging Lib Dems and Labour to defeat it – and by
    setting out the essential Treaty changes without which he would campaign
    for Brexit at the referendum.
    ” Trouble is, Lord T, Cameron’s 2017 bid is an attempt to deflect the problem. He doesn’t really want to give us a vote and if he’s forced into it, he wants to keep us in.

    • hamurana

      +1

  • CortUK

    Rather telling that the Conservatives have more reasons we shouldn’t vote UKIP than reasons we should vote Conservative.

  • Simon Denis

    Three cheers for Andrew Roberts! The most sensible, solid, sober and brilliant points about this whole wretched side show. Like many of us he is an unashamed right winger who knows that whether the Tory leadership is left or right leaning in conservative terms, it is better than the only likely alternative, Labour. He also underlines Cameron and Osborne’s undoubted achievement in nursing the economy back to health. Let the bloody minded die hard morons heed his words and try thereby to glean some wisdom.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      …he just rang the death knell for you Camerluvvies, lad. Perhaps you’re deaf as well as blind.

    • Chingford Man

      You won’t convince me that Tory and Labour aren’t just 2 cheeks of the same backside. But you also can’t convince millions of people. A few hours on the Clacton doors will be an education for you.

  • EmilyEnso

    Still kidding yourselves that UKIP will make an ‘arrangement’ with the Tories?
    Dream on.
    The grassroots would rebel and resign in droves.
    And why should they?
    UKIP doesn’t need to .
    It takes 2 labour votes for 3 conservative.
    Why throw away two fifths of the vote.
    I would think the only way UKIP may be interested and could sell the concept to some members would be a straight run in 30 seats minimum, better 40.
    Even then I for one would want no part.
    I want a UKIP government, failing that the balance of power, but certainly a party not aligned with any of the treasonous lib/lab/con.

    • global city

      any accommodation with the Tories would see UKIP hitting those % levels they did at the last election.

  • Alan Day

    So will Boris and Cameron personally go to Clacton to campaign for their Tory nominee? After all Cameron has said he will fight for every vote. I think not. Boris and Cameron will not stick their necks out only to lose. Cameron and Boris talk tough. But the reality is no Tory MP will want to be personally associated with this coming Tory loss.

  • Scradje

    The right wing vote is set to be split by UKIP. If the Scots vote yes, would the Scottish Labour MP’s be kicked out in time for the election?

    • Conway

      Rather the UKIP vote is set to be split by the faux Conservatives.

    • razzysmum

      Your answer is NO… there would be an 18 month negotiation on the details of leaving the UK and the Labour MPs would (I believe) still be in parliament. Whether or not they could vote I have no idea.

  • Jacques Strap

    RESIGN!

  • foxoles

    Well, let’s see: he could decide not to opt us back in to the monstrous EAW and 34 other pernicious EU legal procedures (including the European Investigation directive, rammed through the EuroParl in February) – oh, no, silly me, he won’t do that; he’s the one who wants us to opt back *in*.

    How about rolling back some of the EU’s gagging ‘hate speech’ laws, then, which are coming our way and already ripping apart Sweden’s right to free speech on its deteriorating social stability?
    http://www.thenewamerican.com/world-news/europe/item/18116-new-swedish-law-criminalizes-anti-immigration-internet-speech

    No, he won’t do that either – he says he wants us to ‘integrate into the British Asian way of life’, rather than the other way round.

    Well then, how about protesting when Jean-Claude Juncker calls, as he did again today, for an EU Army? Nope – didn’t hear a peep from Dave about that.

    Severing his links with secretive training charity, Common Purpose? No plans for that either.

    Guess the answer to your question then is: He can’t.

  • http://english-pensioner.blogspot.co.uk/ english_pensioner

    Unless Cameron spells out what he is seeking in the way of changes in the EU before the election there is no point in supporting the Tories as we have no clue what to expect.
    UKIP on the other hand is quite clear – Get out of the EU.

    • global city

      To do so would see him lose the election, as he intends to call for not very much at all to be ‘returned’ and certainly nothing of any substance.

      I am disappointed that Hannan, Redwood, Tebbit, etc are still willing to gamble on the sceptics being able to outwit the grandees and the whole establishment once a referendum is called.

      • http://english-pensioner.blogspot.co.uk/ english_pensioner

        Exactly my thoughts.

  • davidofkent

    David Cameron could, eventually, save the Conservative Party by resigning as leader.

    • auntyeleet

      Best suggestion yet,replace him and his arrogant cabal with real Conservatives and come to an understanding with Mr Farage to keep out Labour.

    • southerner

      I agree with the sentiment though not the likely outcome – the party is dead.

    • Monima O’Connor

      Agree totally

      • global city

        Why do people assume that this would rectify the core problem? David Cameron is only an example of the mindsets and attitudes of the heart of the Tory party, the grandees and the owners.

        The Conservative party are THE party of Europe. The always have been and they always will be….no matter who’s in charge.

  • Kitty MLB

    Oh come on. Would the country prefer the apocalyptic gloom of
    Labour continuing where they left off.. I also understand most MP’s of Miliband’s expect him to be gone soon…it has not worked
    out…but they remain quiet in a sinister way.
    Yet for all Cameron’s faults he’s not a bad person, just niave
    and Conservatives have a duty to stop Brown’s boys returning.
    The electorate, haven’t even heard of Carswell but they have heard
    of Balls. All this is sound and fury…it’ll come to nothing.

  • The Masked Marvel

    Warmist and former Obama enthusiast Hannan is hardly the man to address that. What was the purpose of Roberts’ contribution? “Stay the course, Dave,” is the exact opposite of advising how to save the party. Lord Tebbitt had the only useful suggestions. Unfortunately, one of them will never happen, and the other may have been inadvertent.

    Have an EU referendum. The media and other Labour supporters would call it a sign of weakness, but those who’ve longed for it won’t care. Never mind Cameron considering his position if Carswell wins the by-election: he should stand down or the party should sack him. A garden gnome would be more resolute and purposeful, and just as amusing at PMQs.

    • stevetierney

      >>Warmist and former Obama enthusiast Hannan is hardly the man to address that. <>What was the purpose of Roberts’ contribution? “Stay the course, Dave,” is the exact opposite of advising how to save the party. <>Lord Tebbitt had the only useful suggestions. Unfortunately, one of them will never happen, and the other may have been inadvertent.<<

      In your opinion.

      Why do the 'Kippers always talk as though they are the voice of the Hivemind? You aren't the Borg, you're just one guy.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        …that’s sorta the whole point of an internet comments section, lad, in case you hadn’t noticed. And let’s see what kind of voice Dave has, when his head is mounted on a spike 8.0 months from now.

      • colinintokyo

        “Why do the Kippers always talk as though they are the voice of the Hivermind?”

        In your opinion.

      • colinintokyo

        “Why do the Kippers always talk as though they are the voice of the Hivermind?”

        In your opinion.

      • The Masked Marvel

        All of the above is merely your opinion. If you believe you’ve undermined my argument, you’ve done your own as well.

  • andagain

    How can anyone save a party determined on suicide?

  • foxoles

    I’m seriously starting to wonder if Cam the Sham actually wants to win the next election, or if he is in it to lose it – and hand the poisoned chalice on to someone else:

    Britain faces winter of blackouts as firms are asked to ration electricity

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/03/Britain-Faces-Winter-of-Blackouts-As-Firms-Are-Asked-to-Ration-Electricity

    Back to the 3 day week, folks. Perhaps Roberts should have compared Cameron to Heath, rather than Macmillan? (It works on so many more levels …)

  • cambridgeelephant

    Pretty feeble from Hannan and Tebbit. Roberts was interesting. Interesting but wrong.

    It’s past the point of no return for Cameron. No one believes him anymore other than Cameroon/Westminster insiders, whose perspective is confined to central London.

    Cameron has spent ten years running down the Conservative Party. 2005 – 250,000 members : 2014 less than 100,000. It is literally too late to change. UKIP will hit Labour hard as well. It’s risible to assume Rochdale and Rotherham won’t register because they obviously will. And the Lib Dums are on for a hammering as well – and will not be the recipient of any protest vote.

    That prize will go to UKIP. How far it will take them is unknown. But we will have four and in Wales and Scotland – five party contests. Something we’ve never had before.

    That fact alone might skew things Cameron’s way yet. Labour have no credible economic policy and their base vote – like Cameron’s and Clegg’s is eroding.

    But there was nothing any of the above said to change any UKIP voters mind. Certainly not mine!

    • Fred Smith

      Tebbit was feeble because he doesn’t see any good options, a bit like advising a chess player who’s a queen and two bishops down in the mid-game.

      Hannan was saying “Rally round the flag boys” which what you’d expect.

      Roberts was saying hammer the recovery and the feel good factor and keep a stiff upper lip.

      I think that Cameron is damaged goods and that’s a large part of their problem. Miliband is just Buggin’s Turn.

      • hamurana

        Perceptive comment.

    • global city

      Why should Man City expect Man Utd to throw all of their games because not doing so could see Arsenal win the League?

  • ScaryBiscuits

    Andrew Roberts (historian) says: Every newly incoming ministry since the war has been re-elected
    This is true but the ‘ministries’ were only re-elected because they had the good sense (and steel) to jettison their leader before the electorate did it for them. Despite Andrew trying to help Cameron, he has unintentionally backed-up Lord Tebbit who says Cameron’s position is now at risk if he doesn’t win Clacton.

    • GUBU

      Not entirely true. Attlee led Labour into the 1950 general election and remained Prime Minister.

      And Lord Tebbit qualified his statement on Clacton with the word ‘might’.

      • ScaryBiscuits

        Er, the Attlee example doesn’t contradict my point. Also Tebbit said ‘might be at risk’, which is a tautology; I shortened to ‘at risk’. Same meaning.

        • GUBU

          My apologies – you are of course right. What I was trying (and failing) to do was suggest that Lord Tebbit’s comment was deliberately more tentative that your shortening implies.

          With Mr Carswell’e re-election now taking on the inevitable cast of a triumphal procession (very much unlike Roy Jenkins winning Hillhead in 1982, for instance), it might be easier for many to dismiss it as an aberration, an outlier more than a marker. And with much else going on (Scotland, Ukraine, IS) the impact of UKIP securing a seat in Parliament might dissipate quicker than we anticipate. In that respect, Mr Roberts’ wider point might be more prescient.

          Given this fluidity, there are still circumstances in which Mr Cameron might win a general election in May next year – ‘might’ being the operative word. The question of whether or not he deserves to is one I’ll leave to others.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            …well, yes, there are still circumstances in which Dave might win a general election…. like maybe the earth might open up and swallow all his political opposition.

            Note the “might”… we want to make sure we’re sophist enough for the Camerloons.

          • ScaryBiscuits

            I’m only guessing but I suspect Lord Tebbit really meant ‘should be at risk’ but didn’t feel able to say it.
            You make a good reference to Roy Jenkins’s SDP. His party may have disappeared but only because Blair adopted their entire policy platform and removed their raison d’etre, although not before Labour lost two elections. It remains to be seen, whether the Conservatives follow this path or the Canadian one where a new party supplants them.

    • andagain

      Most of those ministries fought a re-election campaign, rather than themselves. They wanted to win. It’s decades since the Conservative Party wanted to do that.

  • Richard N

    If only people could realise that Cameron – and every single head of government and head of mainstream political parties right across Europe – is nothing more than a puppet – a performer for the TV cameras – for his US and the EU masters first, and the major corporate donors to the Tory party second.

    There is NO WAY on earth that Cameron’s controllers in the EU, the US and among the big corporate donors to the Tory party that he would EVER be allowed to offer the British people a way out of the EU pseudo-democratic new Soviet Union.

    These masters of Cameron do not want that to happen under any circumstances – and since they control all of the mainstream media in the Western world, they have the means to ensure it doesn’t happen. We have seen demonstrations of that total control of the media over the Ukraine crisis, where every single media pours out the lies coming from the US, day in, day out.

    Therefore – to take any notice of Cameron’s ‘promise’ (ha ha) to hold an EU referendum if (a very unlikely scenario) he gets reelected would be sheer stupidity.

    UKIP – deeply flawed though it is, sadly lacking intellectual depth as it does – is the ONLY hope for this country, in a race against time against the flooding of Britain with 3rd world immigrants, which is deliberately designed to progressively destroy any chance of a vote to leave the EU dictatorship.

    • chouenlai

      Who are you really? The Robot King from Planet Zaar is my guess.

      • southerner

        Hopefully second day of school term tomorrow the homework will have started up again so we are spared any more of these wonderful contributions.

      • Wessex Man

        as I said in my earlier post to Simon Dennis.

    • global city

      Not really so much puppets, more collaborators.

      Cameron WOULD hold a referendum if the Tories won the election. He would do this because the win he would engineer would seal our fate as members of the EU for good….and that is what the British establishment want.

      All of the issues that we see as so concerning about the EU are precisely those that our elite find so attractive about it. Power without accountability. A permanent seat at the top table for them, a bigger playground than a mere ‘nation’… all it takes is the stripping of democratic control by and the sovereignty of the British people….. imagine that?

  • https://www.google.com/+NickLincoln Nick Lincoln

    Oh dear. Andrew Roberts besieges Cameron to be like his hero Harold Macmillan. Damned by faint praise: Macmillan, privately educated, patrician, wet, and the very epitome of consensus politics, back room deals and managed decline.

    No wonder Cameron loves him.

    • chouenlai

      Enough with this “privately educated” horse siht. Virtually every Tory leader before Heath was privately educated, and good many Labour leaders also.
      The others were Grammar School boys and girls which Labour closed down.

      • https://www.google.com/+NickLincoln Nick Lincoln

        I was simply drawing reference to how similar Cameron is to his hero Macmillan. I am sorry you are hung up over the education aspect of it.

        • chouenlai

          I am hung up about bloody inverted snobbery. It is no shame coming from a poor family, but its no great honour either.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            …what shame is it to be an unqualified, poorly educated poshboy who has never held a real job, lad?

    • cambridgeelephant

      Yep !

    • Simon Denis

      If you’re so hostile to private education, why don’t you simply admit that you’re a socialist – even if of the nationalist variety?

      • https://www.google.com/+NickLincoln Nick Lincoln

        The only hostility is from you with that gutless slur.

        Gosh, the Tories are really riled, aren’t they? (That’s a bit of passive-aggressive backatcha hostility).

        • stevetierney

          I’m always amused when a ‘Kipper accuses anybody else of being “riled.” That’s like a horse telling a sheep it has a long face. : )

          • the viceroy’s gin

            I’m always amused when a Camerluvvie whines about UKIP and then insults them, while simultaneously calling for their votes.

            • global city

              Good point. Just how stupid are they?

        • global city

          Being Cultural Marxists now, tribal Tories are only to happy to adopt the debating tactics of that movement. Critical theory….. niggling nitpicking and forcing issues of irrelevance in order to deflect from the substance of the issue raised.

  • foxoles

    Still banging on about that referendum, chaps? The time for that was long ago.

    Anyhow, without a leader that would take us out in the event of a ‘No’, it would be just a worthless piece of paper.

    • Simon Denis

      Oh, so you don’t want a referendum now? What do you want, I wonder? Some sort of revolution, perhaps, with quangocrats and union leaders swinging from the lamp-posts. Well, even if it weren’t so unlovely and extremist a desire, it is simply not going to happen. If people like you get their way we’ll just have Labour government and a loud chorus of incompetents a la Godfrey Bloom continually discrediting the right with their flatulent cat-calling. Perhaps you’ll find yourself among them?

      • the viceroy’s gin

        …well if that’s your fear, you best not split the UKIP vote, lad.

      • Wessex Man

        Did the midwife drop you on your head at birth?

  • Denis_Cooper

    Electoral Calculus have now done the regular monthly update of their four opinion poll charts back to May 2010, here:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls.html

    The upward trend for UKIP support has not broken as some might have been hoping; interestingly both Labour and the Tories are down about 1% while UKIP is up about 2%, and the LibDems are also up about 1%.

    I also note from Lord Ashcroft’s poll for the Claction by-election that UKIP is now almost as attractive to those who say they voted Labour in 2010 as those who say they voted Tory.
    However findings such as those have to be seen in the context of some people saying that they voted UKIP last time, when there was actually no UKIP candidate for them to vote for in Clacton.

    • chouenlai

      Of course there is an upward trend to UKIP, 16,18 % whatever it is, excellent from where you were,but it wont give 1 (one) MP. You will have Clacton man, its looking unlikely you will get any further Tory defections. Farage might win a seat, so, there you have it. Under our system, right or wrong, to achieve 20 MP’s ( which would be handy for a Tory coalition) you need 30 odd %.

      • Denis_Cooper

        The point about an unbroken upward trend in the support for UKIP is that it will continue to rise until the trend breaks. With nine months to the general election that could take UKIP support into the region where it starts to win seats other than Clacton.

        • chouenlai

          OK rise to what? Enough for 5 seats, 7 seats, it will not be that big in my view.

          • Denis_Cooper

            Possibly, we will have to wait to see whether the upwards trend continues up to the election and how far it gets.

      • Dogzzz

        Do you really think that the labour appeasement of brutal and racially and religiously motivated gang rape of white and non-Muslim children by racist Islamic Pakistani men will have no effect in dozens of Northern Labour constituencies, where white working class families have effectively been forced by the local labour authorities to sacrifice their daughters on the altar of Labour’s obsession with politically correct ideology, then you are in as much denial of reality as those who effectively legalised that gang rape by Muslims, by taking so many actions to actively protect the rapists from prosecution for over 15 years in order to appease the vile supremacist ideology of Islam and attack our own culture whenever it clashed with theirs.

        Labour are becoming HATED up here. At long last, we have a patriotic, fair, non-racist alternative party to vote for.

        As this scandal continues to break, I predict at least a dozen of those constituencies where labour protected rapists to fall to UKIP.

        for more inforrmation on how labour effectively decriminalised gang rape, see: thegobbyshite.wordpress.com

        • chouenlai

          DOGZZ
          I would love to believe you. I tell you now, if you guys really hurt Labour and get some of these bloody northerners to see what fools they have been for the last 50 odd years, I will join you. But, what I see is Labour winning because you are hurting us.

          • Denis_Cooper

            If you look at the Electoral Calculus charts you might see something different, that is if you’re prepared to start with an open mind rather than accepting the conventional wisdom.

          • Simon Denis

            Spot on, Chouenlai. Keep at it.

            • Wessex Man

              Spot on Chouenlai, keep at it.

              You people are so sadly deluded.

          • Conway

            By “us” presumably you mean the faux Conservatives. In the north, dyed in the wool Labour voters would never dream of voting Tory, even if they had fallen out of love with Labour. UKIP doesn’t have that baggage so a switch to UKIP, given the appalling events of Rotherham, is a distinct possibility. Now, there is somewhere else for them to park their vote.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            …you Camerloons are hurting yourselves, lad. No sense blaming anybody else for that… you did it to yourselves. You’re still doing it.

        • dgh

          I hope you are right about Labour being hated in Rotherham they certainly deserve to be. If Rotherham return a single Labour MP then they have chosen to accept that they are second class citizens in their own country and deserve to be. I have always liked and admired Yorkshire folk and used to stay with my Yorkshire Grandma every summer when I was young I would be very disappointed if they chose dhimmitude after this has come to light.

      • ScaryBiscuits

        16.8%… but it won’t give you one MP Then in the next sentence you say you have Clacton man, i.e. one MP. Then you say Fararge: two MPs. Then, of course, there’s Rotherham: three MPs. Then Dudley South: four. And so on.
        According to Electoral Calculus, the percentage for the first MP comes at 25%, not 30, and goes up rapidly from there. But this assumes a uniform swing which of course doesn’t happen in practice so it is entirely possible to get many MPs at a lower percentage. E.g. the LibDems are on course to get 19 MPs on 8% of the vote. It’s no longer unlikely that UKIP will get MPs at the next GE. Whether this is enough to influence who forms the next government depends on how tight the result is.

        • chouenlai

          Yes it is quite simple, even for a kipper. You have Clacton 1 seat. You might get Farage home, 1 seat (maybe), one more defector, ok thats 3. Won in the polls; @ 16.8 % zero.
          Total 3.max, behaps just one.

          • Simon Denis

            Poor old chouenlai; you’re having about as much success in reasoning with these paltry goons as Basil Fawlty enjoyed with Manuel and the Major.

            • the viceroy’s gin

              …but the electorate will have great success mounting Call Me Dave’s head on a spike, lad, 8.0 months from now.

          • George Smiley

            Playing armchair general all the way from China?!

          • ScaryBiscuits

            Is that won in the polls @16.8% = zero or three (i.e. not zero)? Do make your mind up, I’m very stupid you know.

      • Jacques Strap

        Depends where the support is. You clearly dont have a clue.

  • Ray Veysey

    Mr Hannan
    “on the Tory side, a kind of political fastidiousness that borders almost on snobbery.”

    It doesn’t border on it, it is all about it, and you are one of the worst examples of it. The thought of not being a conservative/tory is just unbearable to people like you, the fastidious dress and manner of speech, the constant Shakespearian quotes, slipping into “les autre langues” at the drop of a hat. I can’t and neither can you imagine being anything else, it’s so important for ones self esteem and image. You are a phoney.
    Lord Norman
    Right again, spot on.
    Mr Roberts
    “Cameron saved me from a pack of PoM”, no one is going to take anything seriously from anyone so close to Cameron, he holidays with him

    • Christian

      One of the best and most accurate comments I’ve seen on here.

    • WatTylersGhost

      So we can, with confidence, blame Mr Roberts for the state of the Tory Party. I would rather the jelly fish were in Number 10 – more backbone.

    • The Bilkonian

      Meanwhile, most of our “Leaders” have the backbone of said jellyfish.

  • Jingleballix

    DanHan…..how can he have the basics right on education when he sacked Gove?

    Lord Norm…….vote UKIP get UKIP

    AR…….Cameron’s a decent man, but he’s nothing but a politician – no principles.

    • Jingleballix

      ……….err, where’s the rest of my post dude??

      • southerner

        Call Me Dave’s head on a spike will sort you out. Only 8 months to wait.

    • chouenlai

      You need treatment

      • Jacques Strap

        You need therapy.

  • http://grumpydenier.wordpress.com/ GrumpyDenier

    You are all still missing the point: we no longer have a conservative party to vote for. Having just celebrated my 70th birthday, I’m appalled that the party that has had my vote ever since I was able to vote, has morphed into a melange of social democratic idiocies that bear no relationship to what I, as a working-class fellow, need to see.

    Good luck in maintaining this veneer of being a right-of-centre option for aspirational people; the shine went off that with Major.

    • Ray Veysey

      If it hadn’t been for Margaret Thatcher the conservative party would have been revealed in it’s now traitorous form many years ago, thankfully time passed and we have UKIP, what we would have done with more Wilsons, Foots (feet?) and Callaghans doesn’t bear thinking about.

      • chouenlai

        Well Ray, its more of atrocious Labour government your gonna get. Surely you don’t seriously think UKIP will get any MP’s do you. Just Tory defectors, maybe two if your lucky. Labour will win the GE and some of these cretinous comments about ALL BEING THE SAME, will blow up in your faces. Trouble is you will take the rest of us to Socialist Paradise with you.

        • Jingleballix

          ……if you believe that…..YOU”RE the one that needs treatment.

          Gradually, over the past 4yrs, Cameron has forfeited the benefit of the doubt……but the sacking of Gove and Paterson showed what a political moron he is.

          • chouenlai

            Well, jingleballs we only have a few more months to find out.
            UKIP will NOT win many if any seats. Speak to you in May.

            • Wessex Man

              Are you going to come to our party, the first round is on you mind.

            • George Smiley

              Cameron is still toast. Chew your hat, you wet Tory!

            • global city

              I think that they will win more constituencies than the Lib Dems.

          • Chris Morriss

            Never bother with anyone who doesn’t know the difference between YOUR and YOU’RE.

            • The Bilkonian

              and probably doesn’t know the difference between lose and loose either….

        • berosos_bubos

          Why is the government spending money on relentless radio ads. ? It is because they are following a Labour policy of social progressiveness that requires a large state and is ultimately very damaging.

        • premulticulti

          Tedious to keep repeating this but – WE KNOW Labour will likely get in – but the Tories will be obliterated and a start has to be made somewhere to turn this mess around. Labour won’t last long anyway cos there are plenty of horrors coming down the road to whack them. Oh, LibLabCon are all the same.

          • Simon Denis

            The voice of despair.

            • Hemlock

              “A start needs to be made” councils hope, not despair. To throw in the towel, accept the leftward-creeping Cons.

        • Simon Denis

          Very well said; but try facing these morons with logic; it’s a mug’s game.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            …well, you’re definitely a mug, lad.

          • Wessex Man

            What was the saying can’t remember, so here’s my variation.

            Stupid childish insults are the last refuge of the criminally insane.

        • Lesley

          If you are concerned about Labour winning the GE then perhaps you should consider voting UKIP to prevent it, like many conservatives are doing.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          …goodness, sounds like it’s best if you not split the UKIP vote then, lad.

    • fathomwest

      Like Grumpy I am in my seventieth year. I had voted for the Conservatives and only changed when Cameron was elected leader. I thought his speech, much glorified by the media, was glib and full of what became unfulfilled promises. A trait he has continued to employ, hoping the electorate will forget. A speech today forgotten tomorrow is this weak man. He is certainly not a Conservative and the way most Conservative Associations have lost members id down to one simple fact…..Cameron.

      • ButcombeMan

        Exactly. Both of you.

        The answer to the headline here is David Cameron cannot.

        It is over. He did that.

        • stevetierney

          Silly.

          • ButcombeMan

            But just note that people have ticked up my conclusions, not yours.

            Extrapolate those ticks across the nation and you will understand the problems there are for Cameron’s brand.

            He has destroyed the Tory party. He is not trusted

            He did that.

            I am in my 70s having generally supported the Tories through 50 plus years.

            Not now I don’t and I am not at all alone.

            He did that.

            He has been careless with his core support.

            • The Bilkonian

              See my comments above……..

      • Tom

        Since Cameron was elected leader of the Conservative party, does it not show that what you perceive as rot had already made a deep home there? Cameron may be regarded as a symptom; without popular support in the party he wouldn’t have become leader.

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