Coffee House

Today’s poll shows Alex Salmond running out of time

13 July 2014

11:07 AM

13 July 2014

11:07 AM

There really isn’t much time left. From today, there are just nine and a half weeks until we go to the polls in the independence referendum.

Also today, we have the latest ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday. The main figures are: Yes 34 per cent (down two points), No 45 per cent (up two) and don’t know 21 per cent (unchanged).

If the don’t knows are excluded, the figures are Yes 43 per cent (down two), No 57 per cent (up two).

Suddenly, that nine-and-a-half week window looks pretty small for the Yes camp.

It means that Alex Salmond and his colleagues have just 66 days to overturn what has become a stubbornly immoveable lead for Better Together.

And there are two important points that stem from today’s poll that will make them a little more anxious than ever.

First, the ICM poll marks yet another week when Yes Scotland has failed to make any significant headway.

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But secondly, and most importantly, this poll represents the continuation of the most salient fact of all in this referendum campaign – the Yes side has never, ever held a poll lead of any sort in this contest.

It is one of those immutable pieces of political logic that if the nationalists are going to win, at some point they are going to have to establish a lead over their unionist rivals.

And the longer we go on without that happening, the less likely it is that the Yes camp will ever edge into the lead.

Yes Scotland strategists talk a very good game about their plans to build up to 18 September. They insist they don’t want to peak too early, they are desperate to maximise the Yes vote exactly at the right point – on polling day.

That may be true; but if Yes Scotland never establishes a lead at all, ever in the entire campaign, it makes it very unlikely that it will just creep ahead on the crucial day itself.

But there is another problem for the nationalists too at the moment.

This campaign has been going on for so long that there is evidence of a lull. This is not a burn out as such, but more of a temporary switching off by the electorate.

It is undoubtedly true that the Scottish electorate has been engaged in this campaign like no other one, ever.

It is also certain that we shall see something akin to a record turnout, with most observers expecting something around 80 per cent, or even more.

But it is also clear that, just for a few weeks over the summer, many Scots just want to take a break from the campaigning.

The World Cup has helped take minds away from the referendum. The Edinburgh Festival will do the same, as will the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow.

There are also family holidays to think about, barbeques, sunshine and everything else.

What this means for the campaign groups is that we are unlikely to see much of a shift in the polls over the course of the summer.

The No side may consolidate its lead a bit, as we see in the Scotland on Sunday poll today, but there is unlikely to be a major shift in favour of Yes – even though this is what Yes Scotland so desperately needs if it is to stand any chance of winning.

So what is likely to happen is that Scotland will re-engage with the referendum debate in mid-August, when the schools go back.

And, when this happens, the polls will probably be pretty much where they are now (55-45 or so).

But the difference then will be that, by that point, there will be just four and a half weeks left until polling day.

And, if Yes Scotland enters that final month trailing by 10 to 15 points, as seems likely, then it really will look like too big a mountain to climb in what will then be a very short time indeed.

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Show comments
  • Валерий Пионкин

    Joanne K. Rowling!
    I have the honor to announce to you the ultimatum!
    July 10, 2014

    Oldest profession for oldest newspaper.
    Guardian banned in the comments Announce article “Joan and Harry.”
    Newspaper allows freedom of speech only for billionaires.
    In the Guardian says about freedom of speech only when destroying laptops journalists from Guardian.

    Article.

    http://xn--80aa0arx6ab3a.xn--p1ai

    need to copy the entire link into your browser (this domain Russia)

  • David

    i’d like to see a ‘no’ vote, but then I’d like to see real change following it. I think Scotland should have far greater control of itself – everything basically, except foreign affairs, defence and currency. I’d also like all Scottish MPs banned from voting on English matters, too. We’ve had a tyranny of Scots imposing socialism on us (as we have imposed Conservatism on them) and we should both do our own thing – while getting the mutual benefits of staying together, namely economies of scale and bigger punching power on the world stage.

  • Malcolm McCandless

    The BIG problem for the No campaign is that a simply majority will not do in this referendum. To kill the independence debate stone dead the No camp need a clear 2 to 1 majority in the referendum vote, i.e. 67%+.

    Less than that there will be another independence referendum withing the next 15 years. If the Yes campaign gets a 45%+ vote but just fall short there will be another referendum before 2020. As ever the Yes campaign need just a one vote victory and independence will be achieved.

    The current poll of polls sit at:

    Yes – 45%

    No – 55%

    The Yes campaign need a 5% swing. The No campaign need a 12% swing

    That gap will likely close as we near polling day because the hand of history will bear down heavily on Scottish shoulders. Will Scots actually vote against their own country? The No campaign may still prevail under such circumstances, but make no mistake this will be a Pyrrhic victory for unionists. For you see come 19th September independence will be inevitable.

    • Denis_Cooper

      “Will Scots actually vote against their own country?”

      If Scots vote for Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom then they won’t be voting against what they see as being their own country, will they?

      • Malcolm McCandless

        A poll conducted last year showed that 62% of Scots described themselves as “Scottish only”, while 18% said they were “Scottish and British”. As I said how many Scots will actually vote against their own country?

        http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24282271

        • FenlandBuddha

          Well over 55% judging by current polls.

        • Denis_Cooper

          They’ve had another three years since the 2011 census to think about that and decide whether they really mean it.

    • FenlandBuddha

      Maybe for the next referendum the organisers will do it the sensible way around and decide issues such as the currency, EU membership etc then put that to the vote. I’m betting that a Yes majority in September would turn into a No majority within 6 months as one after another of Salmonds fantasies turned out to be untrue.

      • Malcolm McCandless

        “Salmonds fantasies” – that old chestnut.

        • FenlandBuddha

          A currency union with the rUK when all the main parties have said they won’t agree it because it won’t work and isn’t in the Uk’s interest (or Scotland’s for that matter).

          EU membership within 18 months when the European Commission says it won’t happen and only after Spain and Belgium have voted for Scotland to rejoin the EU, thus voting for their own seperatist movements to divide their countries. an EU membershp that retains all the UK’s opt outs and simply ignore the requirement that new members have their own central bank and adopt the Euro. But I’m sure the EU will change all their rules to suit Scotland.

          NATO membership, while not allowing nucelar weapons in Scotland. But I’m sure the NATO will change all their rules to suit Scotland.
          More spending with less taxes.
          A unicorn for every family (I made that one up)

          • Malcolm McCandless

            From the school of “ye cannae dae that, yer no’ allowed”.

            • FenlandBuddha

              Not really, no. But very much Salmond’s line – if UK or any country or international organisation refuses to do what Scotland demands then it is a “bully”.
              No the rest of the UK won’t agree to a currency union to underwrite Scotlands banks so that Edinburgh can contunue to get the taxes while the rUK just gets the liability. If Scotland wants to be indepenedent it will have to get its own currency like every other country that gets independence, or it can use the pound, dollar or Euro but with no guarantees.
              Why should the EU and NATO change their rules just to suit Scotland?

        • Inverted Meniscus

          Well his desire for a currency union is certainly a barking mad fantasy laddie.

    • The_greyhound

      Piffle.

      For a start, No has a much more substantial lead over the the Weir’s independence campaign, and it is growing. The SNP has not convinced a single voter, and can’t. The yes “campaign” capsized months ago, when Osborne ruled out currency union. Everywhere people are realising that salmond can’t deliver on any of his ridiculous claims. The defeat of the nationalists and their lies in September will mark the end of the SNP (money is already changing hands on which MSPs will defect from the SNP to save their hides).

      The only Scots voting against their own country will be that small bunch of sad deluded ninnies who would ruin Scotland’s prosperity for the sake of ending the Union. But they will be a minority. As you repeatedly acknowledge, NO will win in September.

      There won’t be any second chances, and after 2016, there won’t be any SNP either. salmond will just be a malodorous skid-mark in a footnote to our history.

      • Malcolm McCandless

        Oh dear.

        • The_greyhound

          Incidentally, “pyrrhic” is a rather smart word for the bell-ends to be using.

          Was it it this weeks “preparing the supporters for defeat” briefing from the SNP bunker?

  • The_greyhound

    Where are the SNP’s trolls?

    Everywhere I look they are either absent or sadly diminished. Perhaps even they can’t rant forever.

    But it’s my belief salmond gave them the month off so they could refill their bile sacs for the final march to humiliation and defeat in September.

    • Wessex Man

      They are keeping their heads on SNP orders for a few weeks.

      • Wessex Man

        sorry, should have read heads ‘down’

        • celtthedog

          No, I think you got it right the first time (:

  • beenzrgud

    I read a story today about the possibility of opening the UK’s first space port, and the strong chance that it would be in Scotland, that is if it remains in the UK. Tomorrow I fully expect to read that Alex Salmond has said an independent Scotland would not only have two space ports but also a base on Mars !

    • Wessex Man

      I was listening to the Scientist in charge who said it would be perfect if there was a crash as theres nothing there to damage, honestly R5 politics today.

  • Roger Hudson

    Should Tuvalu be a sovereign country? Yes, so why not a nation a hundred times bigger.

    • The_greyhound

      The Isle of Man option?

      While money laundering will have a certain appeal it the corrupt SNP, it’s unlikely to prove capable of sustaining the whole economy. And the SNP is already in enough trouble with the Washington as it is.

      • Jambo25

        We’ll leave the money laundering to London which is the capital city of that activity already.

        • The_greyhound

          feeble, even by your low standards.

          • Jambo25

            Accurate though.

            • Inverted Meniscus

              No a fairly typical lie.

              • Jambo25

                I’ll just ignore you as more and more people are doing.

  • Winston Burchill

    Let’s just wait and see what happens it’s out of our hands in England anyway.

    • Stephen Green

      And out of the hands of all Scots who happen to live in England. Only the present generation of politicians (both English and Scottish could have designed such a corrupted form of so called democratic solution.

  • CraigStrachan

    The SNP’s sketchy plans for independence were demolished months ago, and neither they or Yes Scotland have been prepared to offer a Plan B. Strange, as the too-long campaign has given them ample time to fo do.

    • Inverted Meniscus

      They have had 80 years to come up with an alternative to a currency union with England, Wales and NI and all that slob Salmond can manage us a threat to renege on Scotland’s share of the national debt if we don’t play ball. Laughable.

  • McClane

    ‘many Scots just want to take a break from the campaigning.’

    I’m English, I don’t have a vote, but I also want a break from the campaigning. I don’t honestly care whether they stay or go. If they go they need to repay us at today’s values the money we sent to Edinburgh in 1707 to persuade the bankrupt Scots to vote for Union.

    • telemachus

      You should care
      If they vote to go you will be condemned to 20 years of Tory rule in England
      *
      Or is that what you want

      • Man on the Clapham Omnibus

        What a wonderful thought!

        • Andy

          We should hold a Service of Thanksgiving when that Tory English Government is elected.

          • telemachus

            Thank God therefore for the figures above

        • telemachus

          If Cameron’s performance these last 4 years are anything to go by, wonderful is the last adjective I would use

      • Inverted Meniscus

        As long as we are rid of the socialist scum who cares.

      • Flintshire Ian

        Yes.

      • Hegelguy

        The Labour Party today is as fully Thatcherite as the Tories. Or have you not noticed. What is there to choose between them.

      • Ordinaryman

        Is this another socialist policy; that we should remain a Union to prevent a Tory majority? If you are, then it’s a very disingenuous reason, because, for what is a very narrow political agenda, you are denying the English the democratic right to have whoever they want in government.

    • Damon

      You should care. It’s the future of your country. (Which is called Britain, btw, not ‘England’ or ‘Scotland’.)

      Forgive me, but as an English Unionist, I grow a little weary of this, ‘I couldn’t care less if they stay or go’ business. It’s a parochial, silly mindset and it reeks of decadence.

      • Andy

        Well come the day after and they have voted No I hope you will lead the charge for a reformation of the terms of Union. We, the English, want and demand our own Parliament to look after our affairs. And we want reform of the Barnett Formula – fair spending across the UK.

        • Damon

          A reformation of the terms of the Union is clearly necessary, and potentially beneficial both north and south of the border. I just want to see that ‘no’ vote firmly in the bag first.

          • monty61

            Amen to that.

        • CocklecarrotJ

          I (an Englishman) have no desire for a English Parliament as a separate entity – just another layer of bureaucracy filled with expensive politicians. Simply restricting votes in the existing Parliament on English only issues to MPs with an English constituancy would do me fine.

          • Wessex Man

            If there were a rule that only English MPs could vote on English only matters it would be changed as soon as Labour got into Government, Brown, Miliband and Balls opposed it in their last Government.

            The simple way to cut costs is to do away with The Lords, no longer used in any meaniful way only to delay matters by whoever is in oppostion at the time. Having been to the Lords, I estimate that many millions would be saved each year and adequately pay for an English Parliament.

            • Denis_Cooper

              After the initial costs of buildings etc the annual running costs of an English Parliament would be about 2.5p per week per person in England.

              That’s assuming that the annual costs would be comparable to those for the Scottish Parliament, £68.6 million for the year ending March 31st 2013:

              http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/help/61877.aspx

              Or, looking at it in another way, the annual cost of a separate devolved Parliament for England would be less than 0.02% of total annual public spending in England; it’s like the loose change that MPs at Westminster allow to slip through the floorboards.

              The cost argument is one of the weakest arguments for denying the English what has been readily given to others in the UK; one can only suppose that the real reason is that UK MPs across all parties believe that the Scots deserve to
              have their own Parliament, and the Welsh and the Northern Irish deserve to have their devolved assemblies, while the English do not and can be treated as fourth class citizens; and I wonder how long the UK can possibly survive on such a blatantly unjust basis even if the Scots vote against independence.

        • Alex

          How about a Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh setting ALL Scottish taxes, taking ALL that revenue, and running ALL Scottish internal affairs, including social security, and making a per capita contribution to the British Treasury in London for national services like the foreign service, army etc? This would be fair as all money spent in Scotland would be raised in Scotland, and English taxpayers wouldn’t be subsidising Scotland. Foreign affairs, defence and some other matters would be decided solely by the British Parliament, so the Scots would need a voice there, but it isn’t fair to have equal representation to the English, so why not have say 15 or 20 Scottish MPs, rather than the current 59, and a convention of abstaining on English matters? This would end the unfairness of the Barnett Formula and end the West Lothian Question as far as possible in a united Britian without the expense of another English Parliament. Also, perhaps with such great powers the Scottish Parliament would govern responsibly rather than “spend and ban” as it seems to do at the moment? (I’m a Scottish unionist btw).

          • Andy

            Yes well at the moment the Scottish Parliament is a real whore. It should have to raise the taxes it so freely spends – you vote for it you pay for it.

            The West Lothian Question should have been answered at Devolution and the reason it wasn’t was a pure piece of gerrymandering by the Fascist Labour Party. Your solution wouldn’t work because on UK wide matters Scottish voters would be under represented. An English Parliament would seem to be the only way to solve this.

      • Wessex Man

        do you do you, I think you will find that you are part of a dwindling band, it’s silly to think that we English are in anyway Unionist, we’ve had it knocked out of us by fools like you and Cybernat nutjobs!

      • McClane

        No. My country is called England. And across the world people ask, are you English? when they mean are you British? It’s the Scots, the Welsh and the Irish who have to say, no, I’m not English.

        Both Scottish and English Parliaments voted on the Act of Union in 1707. Now the Scots are getting a referendum. But the English are not. It’s as much our Union as it is the Scots’.

        I say again, I don’t care if they go or if they stay. But I’m also entitled to a vote.

        • Damon

          You’re right; it is ‘your Union’. And there is, I suppose, a case to be made that all the component parts should be given a voice as to their continued membership in it. I happen to be a Unionist, but I recognise that there are arguments for separatism – which I don’t happen to share. It’s the oft-trumpeted ‘indifference’ which mystifies me. A 300-year-old entity may be about to come to an end. Whether you welcome this, or whether, like me, you’re appalled by the prospect, one might at least give a damn.

          Your point about foreigners conflating England and Britain is not especially relevant. Many conflate ‘Holland’ with the Netherlands and ‘America’ with the USA. So what?

          Finally, you say again that you don’t care either way, and yet you’ve taken the time to seek out the Comments section of this particular piece and offer your views at least twice. I respectfully suggest there is a paradox there.

          • McClane

            Suggest away. Conflating the UK with England recognises the cultural influence that England has. Holland and the Netherlands, America and the USA are synonyms, not conflation.

            There is no paradox. As you say, it’s a 300 year-old Act of Union. And it works. I’ve commented elsewhere and often (less often than telemachus) and generally agree with Colonel Mustard, so I tend to up-tick him and keep quiet. But I am not new here. Check disqus.

            • Damon

              “Holland and the Netherlands … are synonyms, not conflation.”
              This will come as a grave shock to residents of Utrecht, Brabant and Zeeland. It’s a common and understandable mistake. I only happen to know the difference because I lived there once. ‘Holland’ occupies a similar role in the Netherlands to that of England in the UK.

              • McClane

                Well, of course we can argue over the exact definition of Holland, the Netherlands and maybe even the Low Countries (Pays-Bas in French, Niederlände in German) but why. I mean seriously, how many people are we talking about? Especially compared to the number of Scots who might want to leave the Union. Not many, really. So I don’t care if they go or if they stay.

      • monty61

        Absolutely. Scotland will be diminished, but England will be diminished too (though many Gnats probably think the latter is a good thing, while being in la-la land about the former).

        The UK is something worth fighting for – a country that has worked, remains successful and punches well above its weight in the world, to the benefit of its citizens.

        We need to keep sticking it to the small-minded, chippy Gnats, while also engaging more widely to ensure that the real issues are understood.

      • McClane

        There is no country called Britain. There is Great Britain, as in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. There was North Britain, which is now Scotland. But there is no Britain. There are also Britons.

    • Robbie

      Don’t care if we go? Well I guess we’ll take our 91% of the North Sea oil as well. Maybe you will notice when the prices start to go up.

  • Hegelguy

    And what happens after the NO vote wins narrowly – no one is expecting it to win by a wide margin?
    Has anyone here thought about that?

    • Colonel Mustard

      The genie is out of the bottle. Whatever the result the relationship of the constituent countries of the UK will have to be redefined. A push in one part will result in a pull in another. But governments being governments expect much fudging and plenty of unintended consequences.

      It will be interesting to see what verbal gymnastics will be resorted to by the UK government to avoid acknowledging the existence of England as a nation and the English as a sovereign people in their own right.

      • dado_trunking

        Can the evil EU do that?

        We must have misunderestimated the pauwwa of the dark side.

        • Inverted Meniscus

          Its your EU sponsored socialist nuttery we cannot understand laddie with all your sock puppets spouting their gibberish. How is the goat lad?

          • dado_trunking

            Only a Sith deals in absolutes.
            I am your father and you don’t even know it.

            • Inverted Meniscus

              You are a gibberish spouting EU sponsored socialist nutter laddie and we all know it.

              • dado_trunking

                You may wish to see the empire strike back but at the end of the day the trade federation is difficult to beat.

                • Inverted Meniscus

                  Can any of you other socialist nutters translate this socialist nutter’s EU sponsored gibberish.

                • Wessex Man

                  halfwit.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …that’s at least 7/16 of a wit too many, isn’t it?

            • girondas2

              There is a view that if a chimp hammered away on a keyboard for long enough it might eventually produce something that that could, possibly, be interpreted as a coherent idea. You, dado, are that chimp, but you ain’t got there yet have you? Carry on: You never know, you might win a banana.

              • Inverted Meniscus

                No chance with that socialist nutter and all of his sock puppets. They speak only gibberish.

            • Wessex Man

              you are no one’s father, your wife just told you you were.

        • Colonel Mustard

          The EU is setting out the game plan for it and has been for years. 2007:-

          “The United Kingdom has a unitary system of government. It recently went through a devolution process, conferring considerable autonomy on the historical nations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Scotland and Northern Ireland have legislative powers. Wales has a strong executive, but no legislative powers. Furthermore, a regional reform of the fourth nation, England, is under way.”

          Didn’t go as planned but that won’t be the end of it.

          • dado_trunking

            Lando Calrissian was branded a traitor for selling out his people to the empire for short-term political gain. A last minute Camerloonian style u-turn saved the bacon for those who like this sort of thing.

            • Colonel Mustard

              Gawd.

              • Wessex Man

                I’ve got a feeling that this is tele babe in disguise.

      • Andy

        I agree. We must have Home Rule for ENGLAND.

      • Wessex Man

        Good to hear John Redwood telling Ming Campbell and Jim Murphy to keep their noses out of English affairs whilst they were trying as usual to promote the break up of England again.

    • http://google.co.eu Sentinel

      This month’s Survation poll has ‘No’ on 53% and ‘Yes’ on 47%. If it transpires that non-Scots residents overwhelmingly voted ‘No’ then isn’t it likely there would be a push for another referendum?

      On a darker note, there must be at least a slight risk that the SLA may rise from the ashes.

      • The_greyhound

        We’re hoping that alcoholic stroke will finish off some of the nationalists and that the rest will emigrate, taking most of the country’s social problems with them.

      • Hegelguy

        What can Scots hope for except permanent Thatcherism if they stay in Britain. Even the Labour Party is fully Thatcherite. So they will push for independence come what may. There is no alternative.

    • CraigStrachan

      NO will win with over 60%.

    • The_greyhound

      NO will win by a very comfortable margin. The Weirs’ independence campaign has been dead in the water for months. The interesting thing is that everyone is now becoming much more aware that the the yes camapign was only ever a small number of idiots banging on dustbin lids to create the impression of support.

  • Hegelguy

    How the English love to avoid seeing the obvious and to cling to straws to save self-respect and to dig their heads into the sand…..
    This is pathetic. Like the 1950s pitiful self-delusion that the British Empire was not dead.
    Can’t you all see that the Scots are in effect already independent? So what if the Yes vote wins narrowly? That will merely open a campaign for Devo Max which means total independence except in foreign policy and defence and keeping the pound (which the Nats want to do anyway). After that can even the notoriously unimaginative English not see what is going to happen? Why, that the remaining subordination to London will month by month seem absurd and total de facto independence would follow.
    What’s to doubt here?

    • The_greyhound

      NO will win by a large majority. The SNP only got out 10% of the electorate to support them in May. Pathetic.

      The only question to be decided in September is whether swinney or sturgeon will lead the wreckage of the SNP after salmond’s abrupt departure.

      • Jambo25

        It was still a much larger number than anyone else got out.

        • The_greyhound

          It wasn’t a much larger number. There are as many Tories and Ukippers in Scotland as nationalists on the evidence of the May ballot. Salmond gets his vote out. And 400,000 is the sum total of those stupid enough to vote for the lying bag of wind and the Weirs’ independence campaign. The yes “campaign” has proved to be the country’s bell-ends and social problems, all in one place.

          The only thing September will decide is whether swinney or sturgeon will lead the wreckage of the rancid little SNP to its final dissolution in 2016.

          • Jambo25

            Unfortunately we vote for individual parties, not an amalgam of extremist nut groups who you, happen personally, to like..

            • The_greyhound

              extremist nut groups

              says a mouthpiece of Scotland’s leading extremist nut group, the slimy nationalist poltroons (SNP).

              Still, September, thanks to Cameron’s statesmanship, offers us a clear choice, the lying SNP and the Weir/salmond vanity project, and sanity. It’s quite clear that the ranting, the lies, the character assassination and the scares have availed the nationalists nothing. There they sit, a small minority of poorly educated oddballs, smelling vaguely of excrement, rocking back and forth as they watch Braveheart and gibber their unhinged nonsense.

              What was it for? The insane vanity of a single extremist, egotist irrelevance, the forever flatulent salmond.

              • Inverted Meniscus

                Perfection is a rare achievement but you are not far off with that comment. Nice one. Ask him what Scotland will do for a currency absent a currency union. You will have a long wait for an answer.

                • The_greyhound

                  Thank you for the kind words.

                  I shan’t bother asking our nationalist friend about the currency – as you say, he won’t know, and his response will only be the occasion for more dimwitted personal abuse.

                • Inverted Meniscus

                  Quite right. I do so enjoy his hypocrisy when claiming he never stoops to personal abuse. Priceless.

              • Jambo25

                Get psychiatric help and get it soon. Christ, you need it.

                • Inverted Meniscus

                  But you never make ad hominem comments do you?

                • Jambo25

                  Only in your case and then its justified by its accuracy.

                • Inverted Meniscus

                  A cybernat like yourself and accuracy. Hilarious.

    • telemachus

      Salmond will lose
      He will be discredited
      The SNP will decline
      There will be Labour hegemony in Scotland for a generation

      • Inverted Meniscus

        Poor old Scotland. Bankruptcy and ruin beckon.

        • telemachus

          Not with Ed at the Treasury in London

          • Inverted Meniscus

            Yes that swine will bankrupt the rest of us. When will you leftist scum ever tire of spending other people’s money?

            • telemachus

              You know that he will be more fair than to-us-and-ours Osborne

          • Andy

            That fat useless tub of lard. He is, like you, a useless cretin.

            • Wessex Man

              Why on earth do you all give this piece of slime the very oxygen it needs by replyingto it?

              • Hegelguy

                What have the poor to look forward to under the Tories. Can you honestly tell me the poor whose children are increasingly deprived would benefit from fat Tories in office who do not give a damn. The only trouble with Labour is that they are today not very different – a party of the rich.

                • Wessex Man

                  What has that reply got to do with telemachus who is a communist?

      • Hegelguy

        I disagree. Unfortunately, Thatcherism is the factor you overlook and it is decisive. What have Scots to look forward to as part of Britain except endless Thatcherism. Even the Labour Party is Thatcherite today. This is the SNP trump card. It is true than in Canada the Quebec separatists were defeated by the thinnest of margins and have since gone into a steep decline with no serious prospect of the independence issue coming up again for ages. But Canada is not Britain. In Canada there is no permanent far Right consensus in power which the people of one province hate with a passion, as there is in Britain. The only reason that the independence cause will be beaten in the referendum is that Salmond has failed to show the Scots how they can have independence without the risks associated with losing the pound. The Unionist scare tactic about losing the pound has succeeded, if the polls are to be believed. But the day the referendum is over the Scots will be left with the bitterness of Thatcherism staring them in the face. They will fight for Devo Max and that means independence in virtually everything plus the pound. After that full independence is only a matter of a few years.

        • Wessex Man

          I suggest you go and lay down in a cool dark room and rest.

          • Jambo25

            I suggest you mug up on Scotland and get as realistic as Hegelguy.

            • Wessex Man

              I suggest you join him there, you can both talk nonsense to each other until you fall asleep.

              • Jambo25

                So still no ability to engage in knowledgeable discussion then?

                • Wessex Man

                  When you find me a knowledge blessed Cybernat not nuyjob I will engage, there’s no point in doing so with you knowing you are so well informed by Wings over Scotland!

                • Jambo25

                  And the Scotsman, Herald, Telegraph, Times etc etc. I find researching things is better than ignorance. Its obvious that you and some of your like minded friends don’t.

                • Wessex Man

                  Hur hur loser.

                • Jambo25

                  Really clever stuff.

        • The_greyhound

          The Unionist scare tactic about losing the pound …..

          You mean the simple statement of fact that England would refuse to prop up the economy of a foreign country for free?

          Once again we see the nationalist aversion to reality. Once again we see clear evidence that the wellspring of nationalism is less philosophical than psycho-pathological.

        • Inverted Meniscus

          There is no unionist scare tactic with regard to losing the pound and you are perfectly welcome to keep on using Sterling. Indeed, it is a freely convertible currency and we can’t stop you from using it. What we will not be doing is joining Scotland in a currency union. Why in the name of all that’s holy would we guarantee the public debt of a foreign country without being able to limit how much debt Scotland issued and for how long. That would be insanity and Osborne has, quite rightly, told Salmond to get stuffed. But you are welcome to keep on using Sterling if you are stupid enough.

      • Jambo25

        Look at the polls.

  • dado_trunking

    Michael Portillo was right – the right wing fascist insurgency is on the rise North of the border.

    • Colonel Mustard

      Fascism is predominantly a left wing construct. Refer to UAF (ironically) to see how it works.

      • telemachus

        Fascism is a form of radical authoritarian nationalism that came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe. Influenced by national syndicalism, fascism originated in Italy in opposition to liberalism and Marxism. Fascism is always placed on the far right on the traditional left–right spectrum

        Fascist ideology consistently invokes the conflict between nations and races

        • Inverted Meniscus

          And another lie from Fascist Labour.

          • telemachus

            Fascism is always placed on the far right on the traditional left–right spectrum

            Also see OED

            An authoritarian and nationalistic right-wing system of government and social organization

            • Inverted Meniscus

              No laddie fascism is part of leftist ideology where control of everybody and every institution by the state is the goal. Fits that scumbag Miliband to perfection.

            • Colonel Mustard

              Infinitely debatable because in modern politics socialism actually demonstrates more traits of fascism. The left wing opposition to it relies upon a myth of its own making.

          • Wessex Man

            there you all go again replying to it.

        • Colonel Mustard

          Both Italian fascism and German national socialism had stronger links to left wing politics.

          Italian fascism borrowed theories and terminology from socialism and combined left-wing and right-wing political views.

          German national socialism was more overtly socialist/authoritarian, sharing many traits seen in New Labour. Not only is the clue in the name of the party but its leader declared:-

          “We are socialists, we are enemies of today’s capitalistic economic system for the exploitation of the economically weak, with its unfair salaries, with its unseemly evaluation of a human being according to wealth and property instead of responsibility and performance, and we are determined to destroy this system under all conditions.”

          Which sounds just like something Miliband would say.

          • telemachus

            You have not forgotten the political conditions of those days, my old party members-the conditions of our political life. You still remember the placards of the two great conflicting ideas-the bourgeoisie on the one side and the proletariat on the other; on the one side nationalism, on the other socialism. Between these two there yawned a gulf which, it was asserted, could never be bridged. The nationalist idea of the bourgeoisie was exclusively bourgeois, and the socialist ideal was exclusively Marxian. The bourgeois ideal was limited to a class; the Marxian ideal was unlimited internationally. But, fundamentally both movements were already sterile. When I first stood before you here, no sensible person believed that there would ever be any clear decision on this point. This, after all, was the decisive issue. This struggle was inevitable if our nation were not to disintegrate completely. One side would have to emerge from it as the decisive victor.

            The conception of the new Movement, whose fundamentals can be expressed in a single sentence: “The Lord helps those who help themselves,” opposed this.

            I place my confidence in the best army in the world, in the best army which the German nation has ever possessed

            • Colonel Mustard

              Sounds just like New Labour which also managed to wed a form of mutant Marxism to corporate exploitation. You ought really to put it in quotation marks or people will think Miliband believes Merkel should rule over us.

            • the viceroy’s gin

              Fascism is another form of socialism, just as its sister construct Communism. All socialist strains are leftist, and all who believe in freedom and liberty are their enemies, for the socialists’ ultimate goal is the destruction of freedom and liberty.

              • Inverted Meniscus

                Well said sir.

          • allymax bruce

            For Truth, invert absolutely everything The Labour Party say to where it is the absolute opposite; The Labour Party are absolute liars, and their policies are absolutely Counterproductive.

  • swatnan

    Smaller miracles have happened. The Scots should have the opportunity of determing their own future by voting YES, and not playing second fiddle to the English..

    • Maidmarrion

      And by default the English folk can reclaim their country and have MPs answerable to them – time those south of the border had an in depth look at the possibilities and harnessed their power.

      • Colonel Mustard

        Won’t happen. The only way England will be reclaimed for the English is over Westminster’s dead body. The EU has plans for us and it isn’t an English government.

  • Blindsideflanker

    Shame, the only hope for a resolution to the West Lothian question was for the Scots to vote for independence.

    • telemachus

      I am pretty happy for scots MP’s to dilute the cosy Home Counties’ Tory vote

      • nickwilde

        That’s because, as a true socialist, you are not a democrat.

        • telemachus

          Sometime in the name of fairness for all democracy as we know it must take a back seat

          • Colonel Mustard

            Ah, that old lie. You know best what is good for us so the normal rules of democracy and free thinking don’t apply.

            Fascists, all of you.

          • Greenslime

            What an odious comment

            • Wessex Man

              they always are, ignore the silly slimy lying communist nutjob.

              • telemachus

                Folks of my persuasion do not like the communist label
                Communism failed because it failed to implement socialism

                • Colonel Mustard

                  You might not like the label but it likes you.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Perfect. You’re going to have old Vlad Lenin rolling over in his embalming fluid with that paraphrase.

                • Inverted Meniscus

                  Yes fascism is more your style.

                • Wessex Man

                  D*** head!

            • Inverted Meniscus

              Well he is a fascist.

          • Inverted Meniscus

            Typical fascist.

        • Inverted Meniscus

          No he is a Fascist like the rest of the Labour Party.

  • Field Marshal

    The saddest thing about all this is that Salmond, who has overall been a good thing for Scotland has lost all his credibility.
    We may now see a month on month decline of the SNP and a resurgence of the Scottish Conservative Party.

    • david trant

      Scottish Conservative Party resurgent, in your dreams!

      http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls_scot.html

    • telemachus

      You will find that Labour are the biggest beneficiaries of the Salmond backlash

      • Inverted Meniscus

        Yes eager to resume their role of destroyers of everything they touch. Poor old Scotland, nothing to look forward to but financial destruction via the rancid filth that is the Labour Party and it coterie of scum and liars.

        • telemachus

          One of the worst things about being denied the Scots at Westminster is that we will be denied the great political figures of Keir Hardie, Ramsay MacDonald, and Gordon Brown

          • Inverted Meniscus

            Nice try at provocation laddie but nobody takes that incompetent, cowardly, bullying scumbag Gordon Brown seriously. Poor old Scotland if it ends up with that piece of rancid filth as First Minister. Mind you, I might place a bet at Ladbrokes on how long it would take the idiot to bankrupt Scotland. A week, two?

            • telemachus

              They would get a rejuvenated health service and education sector
              And would walk tall in the world

              • Inverted Meniscus

                A spectacular series of lies even for you.

                • telemachus

                  Scotland historically always does better with Labour at the helm

                • Inverted Meniscus

                  Nobody does better with Fascist Labour.

                • telemachus

                  Fascism: An authoritarian and nationalistic right-wing system of government and social organization

                • Inverted Meniscus

                  And yet another lie.

                • Colonel Mustard

                  Just because you say so doesn’t make it so. You clearly know bugger all about the rise of Italian fascism or its left-wing roots.

                • telemachus

                  On the contrary my political soul is steeped in the political philosophies from both German and Italian Unification to the tragic nationalistic and ultimately failed regimes of 80 years ago
                  It is fascinating to see the metamorphosis of what started as something altruistic and socialist to repressive and exclusive
                  *
                  It is our job to ensure the reverse path is followed in the march to true British Socialism which I am convinced we can achieve

                • Colonel Mustard

                  Failed everywhere it has been imposed and resulted in untold misery for millions. Don’t bring that to Britain.

                  The metamorphosis is inevitable as it lies in the dark souls of people just like you. You can’t even tolerate dissent on a blog but have to rush around tagging everyone with propaganda!

                • telemachus

                  Dissent is acceptable
                  Pernicious falsehoods of the right need to be expunged

                • Colonel Mustard

                  But you are totally polarised, To you everything from the right is a pernicious falsehood and everything from the left unquestionably true. You also peddle a weird hagiography, blind to the faults of Miliband’s crew and demonising Cameron’s.

                  My healthy cynicism takes me to another place entirely.

                • Inverted Meniscus

                  What a fascist scumbag you are.

                • Ronnie Strachan

                  you are a proper sh*t shooter

                • Wessex Man

                  and he’s got plenty to shoot.

          • kyalami

            Who?

      • Hegelguy

        But Labour today are Thatcherite and surely the Scots know that.

      • Jambo25

        You do realise that the SNP, after 7 years of government, in Edinburgh, are still holding a substantial lead over Labour? Possibly, the main victim of a September ‘No’ vote will be Labour.

  • rtj1211

    To me, there are so many uncertainties as to what will happen to Scotland after a Yes vote, that this is more a vote on rejecting the Union than a vote for the future. In other words, this is deciding whether to divorce, rather than a change of career.

    1. Does an Independent Scotland want to be in the EU, would they be allowed in and if they were, would it do them any good?
    2. What currency would Scotland have under each of those scenarios?
    3. What percentage of the UK State liabilities would new Scotland inherit?
    4. What are the long-term energy revenues likely to be within Scottish boundaries/waters? Have the maritime boundaries even been agreed upon?
    5. Will independence improve or ameliorate transport linkages to and from England?
    6. Will Scotland be more or less susceptible to the sort of unhealthy influence that the UK has had from the Murdoch Empire, in terms of unaccountable foreigners having extremely unhealthy influence over the political process?
    7. What increase in interest rates for Scottish gilts would accrue vis a vis the UK as is?
    8. Would a loosening of ties to the City of London be a benefit or a hindrance to Scottish businesses, insitutions etc when they wish to rase money?

    Etc etc.

    The reality as in all situations is that there will some winners and some losers. The difficulty is that no-one can do the sums until the questions are answered.

    I actually think that what many Scots would most prefer is for England to devolve a lot of its domestic powers to an English Parliament located well away from London, leaving London as a City of Commerce and Finance but not a city controlling everything.

    That’s beyond their power to demand, but it would be interesting to know if a majority in the UK also thought that.

    To me, there is a bit of an element here of a teenager experiencing their first love, with the attendant dangers of course that the chosen ‘beau’ is a ‘wrong ‘un’ with all the attendant implications for parents having to pick the pieces up afterwards and the questions as to how good they actually are at doing that.

    • Blindsideflanker

      “I actually think that what many Scots would most prefer is for England ….”

      It was made very clear that the English should keep their noses out of Scots affairs. The reverse is also true.

      • monty61

        He’s giving his view of the opinion of Scots, dummy. And he also said that such a change would be down to the English.

        As it happens, as a Scot living in England, I agree – English government should be moved out of London (probably to the new Leeds-Manchester ‘supercity’ much talked about, or perhaps to the Midlands), along with most of the Civil Service, and London left as a Frankfurt-style financial and commercial capital.

        • Kitty MLB

          I agree although London will always be the international capital in regards to business.
          It became far too large and self-important under
          the last government’s disasterous reign.
          We most certainly need a new supercity up north.As say Manchester or maybe Newcastle
          being somewhat geographically closer to
          Scotland.

          • HookesLaw

            What we need is as has been suggested by the government, better links between Manchester Bradford Leeds and Sheffield.
            The Liverpool Manchester rail line is already being electrified.

            • McClane

              What we need are more trains on the existing link. And an end to that apparently permanent 50mph average speed limit on the M62.

          • telemachus

            Manchester
            Stand in Piccadilly and take a tram to Media City and you feel you have truly found England
            No wonder that Manchester is proposed as the location of the English Parliament

            • McClane

              The Media City is in Salford, not Manchester. Get a grip.

              • Wessex Man

                it woulsdn’t know.

              • telemachus

                Please explain the difference
                I have lived hereabouts for ever and have never understood

                • girondas2

                  “and have never understood”
                  Anything.
                  How’s your gene pool by the way – still paddling?

                • telemachus

                  The mongrelisation of our great country progresses apace

                • girondas2

                  I have already been mongrelised, not that it matters to me one way or the other as I judge human beings as individuals, in accordance with their merits: People are not livestock in need of mongrelisation or “improvment” to meet your, or your party’s, fantasy of the perfect citizen/worker.
                  There has always been the smell of the jackboot about you telemachus

          • Wessex Man

            We need nothing close to Scotland except the Wall.

        • HookesLaw

          It would not add one jot to making us better governed.
          The official cost of moving the German govt to Berlin was put at £3 to 4 billion; it probably cost more, some put it at £20 billion.

          Sorry to upset people by mentioning the Germans (was Basil Fawlty a kipper?)

          • McClane

            They moved the BRD German government from Bonn to Berlin. The DDR government was already there.

            The English government could and should go north. The Leeds-Manchester ‘supercity’ will never exist. There are the Pennines in between and Leeds is in Yorkshire while Manchester is in Lancashire. It should go to Newcastle.

            • Hexhamgeezer

              Thanks for the offer, but I’d prefer it a bit further south. I’d worry what such an influx would do to my favourite city and boozers.

          • Wessex Man

            no are you?

        • Wessex Man

          No I’d say somerwhere on the M42 just north of Brum.

    • Maidmarrion

      “A teenager experiencing their first love”
      England is not a “parent” – the union of the two countries was supposed to be an EQUAL partnership.
      How can anyone write such patronising drivel? Unless of course you are paid by a failing paper to induce comment.
      Scotland is an ancient country with its own history and culture – it doesn’t need your ill thought out ordure .

      • Inverted Meniscus

        How can a country with 8.7% of the population be an equal partner with a country containing 91.3% of the population? What kind of negotiating position does that offer the smaller country? Why do you want a currency union with a country you clearly hate with every fibre of your being? I love the fact that you respond to perfectly legitimate questions as “patronising drivel” with what can only be described as “patronising drivel”. Get used to it loser. Oh, if by some miracle there was a Yes vote you will get what you are given from the 91.7% and lump it.

        • Maidmarrion

          Did you bother to read the entire comment to which I responded?
          Have you bothered to read the history of the union?
          Equal partnership included?
          Or do you spend your time waiting to insult and denigrate?
          What has excited your bilious comments to such an extent that you have to make some sort of ill thought out response any and everywhere?
          Was I the only Scot who turned up on this unionist dominated site – so many who have no vote but all opining as though they know the mindset of Scots or at least HOW they should think – is that what you do? Hang around like a bad smell and then chuck insults at the first available Scot who supports independence?
          LOSER!

          • The_greyhound

            the first available Scot who supports independence …….

            Most of us don’t support independence and don’t believe the lies that the nationalists peddle. You don’t speak for Scotland or the Scots, just for the ranting obnoxious little SNP.

            The behaviour of the nationalist minority has been disgusting throughout the so-called “campaign” – foul-mouthed, threatening, lying and abusive. salmond’s major campaign tactic has been assaults on the character of anyone who dared stand up to his stinking rancid little party.

            So it’s simple justice that you and your deluded chums deserve all the hostility you get.

          • Inverted Meniscus

            Your done love, finished, it’s over for you cybernat headbangers. Get used to it because you will get what your given and nothing else.

          • Inverted Meniscus

            The greyhound has summed it up perfectly vis a vis “rancid little party”.

      • Whyshouldihavetoregister

        With you around, there’ll be no shortage of ordure in Scotland. (And yes, I do have a vote in the referendum.)

    • Wessex Man

      Who cares south of the border.

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