Coffee House

Miliband’s jobs ‘blunder’: who’s right?

1 July 2014

9:00 PM

1 July 2014

9:00 PM

There’s been a bit of a fuss over the claim in Lord Adonis’s growth report—repeated in a draft of Ed Miliband’s localism speech—that four-fifths of the private-sector jobs growth in the UK since 2010 has happened in London. The Prime Minister tweeted:

And NIESR’s Jonathan Portes (who has form taking issue with how numbers on ‘new’ jobs numbers are used) said:

[Alt-Text]


The figure in Adonis’s report was taken from the Centre for Cities’ City Outlook 2014 – it says that ‘since 2010, 79 per cent of the private-sector job growth has occurred in London’. But as the Centre for Cities explained in Janaury, it’s based on the Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES). The Centre for Cities stand by its calculations. Its CEO, Alexandra Jones, says that the BRES data ‘gives a more accurate picture of where jobs are located’ than other measures.

But the Conservatives took issue with the claim. They said that three-quarters of private sector job growth since 2010 has happened outside London. (With far from perfect spreadsheet skills, I made it 74 per cent.)

There are issues with their source too. Full Fact say that using figures from the Labour Force Survey, as the Conservatives did, is problematic: the LFS may misrepresent the number of employees in the private sector. And besides, the change in the number of net jobs isn’t the same as new jobs.

So there are different measures for jobs growth and they say different things. Everyone can claim to be vaguely right, by their own measure, and other can call them precisely wrong. But there’s another issue – what happens when Ed Miliband unveils a policy. Whether it’s owls or a (possibly) dodgy stat that turns heads, Labour’s plans for power just don’t seem capable of commanding attention.

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Show comments
  • Conway

    So there are different measures for jobs growth and they say different
    things. Everyone can claim to be vaguely right, by their own measure,
    and other can call them precisely wrong.
    ” Good heavens! You know, that had never occurred to me! I always thought it was called political spin.

  • Amir

    Check this article out about Ed Miliband’s last chance

    http://www.casualpolitics.co.uk/2014/06/is-labour-still-in-the-game/

  • Reconstruct

    There’s no controversy: the idea that 80% of Britain’s jobs growth is quite simply absurd. No-one outside the tight circle of the M25 could possibly entertain it for a minute. It’s one of those claims which evaporate at the slightest touch of curiosity.

    And, oh yes, it is also contradicted spectacularly by the official, and freely available, data.

    That Miliband a) apparently believed it, and now b) is trying to claim some justification for it, tells us he lives in a North London fantasy world.

    • Conway

      He lives in the Westminster bubble. You don’t think he interacts with the plebs, do you?

  • Amir

    Check this article out about Miliband’s last chance:

    http://www.casualpolitics.co.uk/2014/06/is-labour-still-in-the-game/

  • Pier66

    LADIES and GENTLEMEN
    dish of the day;

    The FA did not never appreciate never like football genius as Brian Clough, Shankly , Paisley and Glenn Hoddle…with his avantgard football ideas, a winner player deserved a 10 years contract with white paper on everything!
    What done indeed the FA ( in wrong hands since about 70 years? More or less)
    They said Hoddle did not coaching cause he has not football card!!!
    They pick up always the WRONG coach because they like lose(liblab )
    Poor England There are NOT future wrong hands again
    Ynwa and Tory in the FA NOW

    • DaveTheRave

      I think I get the gist. Not sure it fits here but here goes!
      If Australia, Costa Rica and USA etc can perform really well, without perhaps ultimately getting the right results, then surely England, with the players we already have, should be doing an awful lot better.
      You know, sometimes what seem like cosmetic changes are crucial. Look at what Shankly did at Liverpool. He said they should play in uncompromising all red. And of course, football was more important than life or death. He also bought some pretty decent footballers too of course. Liverpool were an also ran second division club when he joined and within a year or two they were the best team in the land. OK, this was a different era and Liverpool is a club.
      So what could England do?
      1. Make red first team colour (we won wearing red in ’66), white second.
      2. Change the national anthem, something really stirring…
      3. Oh, and yes, choose a manager who’s dangerous, adventurous, not safe. After all, you need to rock the boat to make waves…

      • Conway

        I hope you aren’t considering Ode to Joy for number 2!

  • DaveTheRave

    Well, considering the amount of free-flowing untaxed foreign capital pouring into London, one might not be surprised by such a claim.
    But two things we need to get straight:
    1. We are Germany’s biggest customer. If we leave the EU they are not going to suddenly stop trading with us over some ‘principle’ of membership of the USE!
    2. Will elite politicians of all parties stop trying to decide England’s future without asking us first!!! I am sick of it! We are a people, we are a country. Let’s make it so.

    • Wessex Man

      The Economist Magazine ran an article about a year ago stating that six and a half mainland European jobs depended on trade with the Untied Kingdom, does anyone seriously think they are going to turn around and crerate a trade barrier?

      • Andy

        Well judging by past experience I would say they are daft enough to do so.

      • DaveTheRave

        I concur. Trade is trade and the Chinese have already said that when ‘Britain’ leaves the EU they foresee no problems at all.
        But politics is all about lies, isn’t it?
        We have to see the EU for what it is: a proto USE. It’s all about the political will to create a political union of member states, period. Most of those belonging to it think it’s a good idea. Generally speaking, we clearly don’t. What’s wrong with that?

  • anncalba

    At the time of writing, 25 comments on here, 10 from the pathetic telemarchus, thus rendering the whole thing not worth scrolling down to find comments from sane contirbutors. Please, please don’t encourage him.

    • ButcombeMan

      tele is on bonus payments from Labour HQ, they have become desperate.

      • Andy

        All the cash from UNITE. Fascist to Fascist like.

  • Brigantian

    They are all talking ‘rubbish’ as usual. Even back in the 1990’s most construction work in London was undertaken at every level by people who lived as far away as Oban or Aberdeen but who for purposes of employment may have been registered in London. Now it is even more complicated. A person ‘working in London’ is as likely to be living in Boston USA, Shanghai or Barcelona as Didcot. This also applies to every type of industry and commerce now, not only construction. London is now a virtual hub – the Liberia of private enterprise – which in some senses it has been for centuries, only with the internet the impact is more profound. Miliband portrays himself as a Geek, which if only half true would mean he knew this.

    • telemachus

      Does not alter the fact that Osborne is directing resources to his City and Home Counties friends

      • Brigantian

        Why pick on Osborne? Labour had 13 years to extend the Tyneside Metro to Washington and Consett, in their home territory, where there was no public opposition. Instead they poured money into London and the South East. Not only for infrastructure but for their arty friends as well.

        • telemachus

          The issue was what happened since 2010
          And Cameron’s failure to rebalance the economy
          At least in part due to Osborne’s policy of to-us-and-ours

          • Brigantian

            Agreed, Cameron should have followed the Irish example and slashed all public sector pay by 25%. Pity he had to be in coalition with Nick Clegg.

            • telemachus

              Rebalance
              As in North South

            • Wessex Man

              you see what you get debating with this troll.

            • Mynydd

              Let us make it clear, Mr Cameron failed you win a overall majority at the 2010 general election, and then went cap in hand to Mr Clegg to form a coalition. At least Mr Clegg then put it to his party in a vote, whereas Mr Cameron did not, I am leader you lot do as I say. With respect to Ireland what is their deficit compared to our £100bn.

              • Inverted Meniscus

                That is Gordon Scum Brown’s deficit not “our” deficit.

          • starfish

            Yep. A year zero. Funny how that happens so often with socialist fairy stories

          • Holly

            The issue is, that because of the inept Labour treasury ministers(1997-2010) there became an almighty chasm between the North & the South, the top bod, and the cleaner.

            Cameron has not failed to re-balance the economy, because the reality is such a wide devide will take longer than five years to bridge. So the re-balancing of the economy has only just begun.
            IF, like you lefties try to portray, the Tories were ‘all for their rich chums’, surely their ‘rich chums’ would have been investing like there was no tomorrow, if so much money could be made.
            The truth is, Labour are useless, they prefer to blame the rich, the ‘poor’, the Tories, Maggie, and anyone else to hide their utter failure while in office…AGAIN!

          • pablo58

            Who are you and your’s, tele-mucus? You’re not real are you? As in, whoever you really are ( and I’m not Spanish or 58) you’ve just invented the ludicrous ‘telemachus’ character for a laugh, haven’t you? A bit like Rik Mayall’s ‘Rik’ in ‘The Young Ones’. Not quite as funny, but do keep it up; “..destroy everything we know..” : Class.

        • Mynydd

          Why pick on Osborne, simple he’s the government minister for the last four and a bit years. I wonder when he travels north does he pay the full fare.

          • Holly

            What is your opinion on Bozo, Balls & Co who were government ministers from 1997 to 2010.
            I have no objections to people slating Cameron and Osborne over the state of the country’s economy, but I wish they would get a grip on why it was so very dire back in 2010, and who made it so dire.
            They can not stand the fact that it has turned out far better than they were told it would be, by finance guru Balls.
            Now, even Balls, after spouting the same old doom & gloom rubbish for four years, has had to veer of his own duff message.
            Balls is duff, and tainted by his own record. Miliband is completely duff, and ridiculed in public…
            Tick…tock…tick…matey.

      • Ooh!MePurse!

        Proof? Evidence – not your normal nonsense.

        • Mynydd

          Do you need proof that the deficit is £100bn rather than zero according to Mr Cameron/Osborne’s initial five year plan. Of course we now have another five year plan. Stalin used to have five year plans that keep on failing.

          • Holly

            Are you sure you don’t mean Blair?
            He had five year plans every time he had to re shuffle a Home Secretary, to cover up what was going on at immigration. They never fixed anything, but the figures.
            They also hiked up ‘targets’ to shut people up about their failure to hit the previous target, and eventually their self imposed targets were humanly impossible to reach, and led to deaths, and betrayed a generation of young adults into thinking they were climbing up the social ladder.
            They should NEVER be trusted again.

          • Inverted Meniscus

            Well we would not be arguing about it would we if that ba****d Gordon Brown hadnt created the largest structural deficit in peacetime history you diot. It is like blaming the Firemen for causing the fire.

    • Mynydd

      A person ‘working in London’ could well be registered for tax purpose in an offshore tax haven.

  • global city

    not only have they got this one wrong, Miliband spouted the 3.5 million jobs lost bollux if we leave the EU, over the weekend.

    • telemachus

      He is correct
      But not only that it will trigger a further World recession

      • Brigantian

        I would just love to see your justification for that statement.
        How precisely can the UK, with a massive national debt, leaving a club with an even bigger debt, result in a World recession?
        It might mean that most Greeks, Italians and Spaniards have to go back to living like destitute peasants instead of like princes, but that is simply a wake up to reality.

        • telemachus

          It is a matter of confidence
          Particularly in the banking system
          There will be worldwide banking failures

          • Brigantian

            What, more of them?
            Are you suggesting that voting for UKIP will put bankers out of a job?

            • telemachus

              In effect
              As well as destroying the moral fibre of the country

              • Brigantian

                Moral fibre and bankers have no association in my mind.

                • telemachus

                  Nor mine
                  UKIP will destroy everything we know, though

                • Brigantian

                  If that we is in the first person, then I will definitely vote UKIP.

                • Wessex Man

                  I did warn you.

                • Andy

                  That’s you added to the ‘Send to Concentration Camp’ list.

                • Conway

                  After re-education, of course 🙂

                • ButcombeMan

                  Panic eh?

                  Very interesting indeed..

                  Through your direct line to the incompetent Labour hierarchy, you might suggest that a useful strategy would be to address voters concerns.

                  Tell them it is called “democracy”.

                • Inverted Meniscus

                  They will have to scuttle about and find a dictionary then. Nobody in the Labour Party understands democracy or freedom of speech.

                • saffrin

                  Everything today’s scummy Liebour aim for you mean.

                • Conway

                  What, like EU subservience, multiculti rubbish, unlimited immigration and political correctness? Bring it on!

              • saffrin

                Labour have the monopoly on destroying moral fibre.

                Remember, it was your lot that introduced scum like Bliar, Brown, Ed Balls, Harriet Harman, Mandy Mandelson, Andy Burnham, Lardass Prescott, McBride and a host of criminal fraudsters to the World.

          • saffrin

            Oh what, but wouldn’t that just mean people would have to live within their means?
            Why would you, who obviously hate capitalist banksters want to increase their profits?

        • Wessex Man

          .It is best not to bother trying to debate with this lying slimy troll!

        • Holly

          He does not have to ‘justify’ his comments.
          They are so clearly made to invoke a response that ‘we’ justify them for him.
          Try your hardest (and it IS hard) to ignore him.
          It is also clear that Lefties like talking to themselves, and seeing who can praise the morons on the Labour front bench the bestest.

          telemachus MUST be on some big bonus scheme cooked up by some lefty taxpayer funded scam.
          A bit like Union fees.

      • Hexhamgeezer

        …..and a giant tsunami that will devastate the poor people…..

        • starfish

          I thought it was a large mutant star goat

      • Tony_E

        There would only be that potential issue if the Germans refuse to come to sensible agreements over trade – and even then that’s unlikely because the WTO won’t cease to exist if we aren’t in the EU.

        People like you said the same thing about not joining the Euro – and the consequence is that we have been the only country in the EU whose exports and BOP have not been destroyed by German mercantilism.

        • telemachus

          The issue is the uncertainty and City and Foreign Investment confidence not only in the U K but in Europe and indeed the whole western world

          • Inverted Meniscus

            It is so amusing to watch you socialist nutters pontificating about things of which you have absolutely no understanding.

            • Wessex Man

              ignore this troll telebum.

              • Inverted Meniscus

                I know I should but his dishonesty really winds me up.

                • Andy

                  You shouldn’t let him. We all know he is a member of the Fascist Labour Party.

          • saffrin

            The whole western world being the warmongering USA and EU.
            Canada and Australia are in the western world, they’d love us to elect UKIP.
            Neither of which, I point out, have called for war since…

      • Inverted Meniscus

        And we will be invaded by Martians. We all know you socialist nutters are moronic liars and incompetent but that takes the biscuit. Europe is the World’s most sclerotic, declining economy. Our leaving it would not only free things up for us, it might just shake the Europeans out of their socialist nuttery.

        • Mynydd

          ” Europe is the World’s most selerotic, declining economy” Try telling that to the people of Syria or Iraqi then what about South Sudan.

          • Inverted Meniscus

            Left wing troll and idiot.

          • Conway

            Haven’t they exported lots of their “brightest and best”?

      • global city

        Do you REALLY believe that?

        • Conway

          I’m sure tele can believe lots of incredible things. After all, he seems to be a Labour poster.

      • DWWolds

        The figure of 3 million jobs originated in a research project carried out by one of our universities – if my memory is correct the LSE – for the now defunct lobby group, Britain in Europe. It concluded that 3 million UK jobs depended on TRADE with the EU and not on membership. The professor who was in charge of this research has spoken of his dismay at the way in which the findings have been misinterpreted.
        Furthermore, it is my understanding that a similar figure of 3m relating to jobs and the EU that emanated recently from the Treasury also related to TRADE with the EU. Again it is my understanding that the Treasury has made this clear.
        As several people on this site have pointed out, we import far more from other EU countries than we export to them. According, if only to protect a key German market for BMWs, Volkswagens and the like, it is difficult to see how we could not negotiate a trade deal if we left the EU. Indeed it is highly likely that we would have the upper hand in such negotiations.
        Despite that Labour and the LibDems, not to mention their acolytes, continue to misrepresent the 3 million figure. They also keep trotting out their scare tactics.

  • telemachus

    Folks
    You know that when the Tories start nit picking stats that they wish to deflect the actual message
    The message that Osborne has been priming the pockets of his Home Counties cronies to ensure that the vast majority of meaningful investment occurs in and around London
    It is high time the other Ed took his job

    • Kitty MLB

      Do Labour even know what jobs are Telemachus? and what about all those
      lost jobs if we leave the EU.Desperate wee Ed .
      Also Ed Balls should be sent to Timbuktu not given a job.

      • telemachus

        Exactly Ladybird
        Those lost jobs if we leave the EU
        That is why we should finish this media obsession with racist UKIP
        And focus on a meaningful engagement with Europe

        • Kitty MLB

          What do you mean “we” ? I am a Conservative
          last time I checked.And UKIP are not racist,
          so give that old chestnut a rest.

          • telemachus

            Sorry
            They must be nailed
            Any party that makes immigrant Asian communities live in fear in pursuit of a political goal deserve to be proscribed

            • Brigantian

              So you are talking about Labour now, right?
              No other party threatens to prosecute Imams for homophobia.

              • telemachus

                Do not add Islamophobia to your crimes

                • Jackthesmilingblack

                  Islamophobia is not a crime. Hating Islam is a perfectly natural reaction. Pander and deferring to Islam is illogical and cowardly.

                • Ooh!MePurse!

                  Absolutely. There is no such thing as Islamaphobia. It is a nonsense invented by the hypocritical left to justify their support for misogyny and dictatorship. Objecting to those who aspire to kill us is not a phobia.

                • http://europa-antiqua-arca.blogspot.com/ clavdivs

                  Islam is a religion, not a race. Racism is illogical because no one can choose their race (and cannot therefore be morally culpable for it), and because every race has its good and bad members. There is absolutely nothing at all wrong or racist about a principled objection to a worldview, political ideology or religion, which is what Islam is. Furthermore, the BBC’s insistence on using ‘Asian’ in place of ‘Muslim’ is deliberate obfuscation. Most Muslims are not actually Asians at all in the normal English use of the word; they are Arabs.

                • Conway

                  Correction, islam is an ideology masquerading as a religion. There is no separation between mosque and state. It should be called by the English translation – Submission. That would tell you all you needed to know about its aims. Fortunately, ISIS, with its call for a Caliphate and to take over Rome, might just start to wake up the slumbering to what could be in store for us kuffars should we become dhimmis.

                • Andy

                  Reason you love Islam so much is because Mohammed was a pedophile and Labour loves pedos. Look how leading figures were only too happy to hop into bed with PIE.

            • http://europa-antiqua-arca.blogspot.com/ clavdivs

              “Asian” communities? No problem here with Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, Vietnamese, Indians… Actually no problem at all with any one race in particular. The problem is the religious ideology of Islam, a religion, not a race.

              • Kitty MLB

                Indeed, well pointed out.
                As you pointed out non muslim immigrants have
                been living here for decades and have embraced
                this country and our way of life.
                Why can we not be honest about this..
                Oh we might upset them and they might send
                us to oblivion.

                • telemachus

                  Really
                  The Chinese have embraced our country and way of life
                  I suggest you take a walk thru China Town in any of our big Cities

            • Kitty MLB

              Whereas Labour make the entire country live in
              fear, everytime you say those words’ when we’re
              back in power’ we see that as a threat.
              Also we actually live in fear of those who
              hail from the third world, plotting God knows
              what.

            • Inverted Meniscus

              You cannot “nail” things with lies I am afraid.

            • Andy

              You should be nailed as the Fascist and racist you are.

          • Wessex Man

            agh!. not you as well Kitty it’s best not to bother debating with this half-witted troll.

        • Tony_E

          What jobs lost – the only lost jobs I see is that of a bunch of MEPs and bureaucrats.

    • ButcombeMan

      But the “other Ed” is forever tainted by his association with “The Great Leader” supreme architect of “The Big Brown Mess” .

      You are wonderful tele, every time you post your bollocks I can come back with the truth.

      • telemachus

        You say all that as if it were reprehensible to be associated with the man who gave us the longest period of prosperity in our history
        *
        And then went on to save the World’s banks after Lehman

        • starfish

          Do you actually review it before you post this drivel?

          I have cone to the conclusion that you are some form of robot posting unconnected stock phrases in support of robot in chief miliband

          • Gafto

            I think you are right there. Telemachus posts the exact same crap over and over such as, ‘the charismatic one’, ‘man who gave us the longest period of prosperity in our history’, ‘yearning for the return of…..’, ‘do not add Islamophobia to your crimes’, ’embrace muslims'(which is a euphemism for sit back and be trampled on by a fascist ideology) and ‘the Daily Mail is driving muslims to become terrorists or into the arms of the mullahs’.

            This apologist for evil should read his or her posts as they sound totally and utterly ridiculous, the person is a total disgrace.

        • Inverted Meniscus

          My favourite lie.

          • Kitty MLB

            I am sure Brown once said in the HOC: when we saved the world. The lot of them are one sandwich short of a picnic.

            • telemachus

              You are correct
              And in a sense it was true
              *
              He did correct himself to saved the world’s banks

              • saffrin

                Still pushing that lie?

              • Inverted Meniscus

                That is a five star lie.

      • Kitty MLB

        Oh yes, the ” other Ed” Browns architect of Disaster.
        Browns minister working for that ‘blank sheet of paper’
        Miliband as recycled pages.They thought we’d not
        notice.

      • Inverted Meniscus

        Except he has no idea what the word truth means.

    • Holly

      POLAR OPPOSITE!

      As for the other ‘Ed’, well I dared to say that was on the cards, and got blocked from LabourList…Gutted I am…gutted.
      I was the telemachus of that site….
      Chortles and logs off.

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