Coffee House

Labour confirms Tory strategy: Vote Nigel, Get Ed

28 July 2014

28 July 2014

Talk to most Tory strategists about Ukip and Ed Miliband and they say something along the lines of ‘Vote Farage, get Miliband’. They hope that this will deter people from voting Ukip or win back those Ukip supporters who are not irreconcilable to the Tories.

The Telegraph has news that Labour’s private polling confirms the Tory view: Ed Miliband will win Downing Street if Ukip polls 9 per cent of voters, which it is more than capable of doing on current projections.

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The Tories, I suspect, will be fairly pleased that Labour has published this information. It reinforces what we’ve known all along: an unpopular left-wing party will win power if the right remains divided. The challenge for Lynton Crosby et al is to fashion a strategy that splits those Ukip voters who might return to the Tories, if only for fear of Miliband and Balls, from the die-hards.

As for what this says about Labour, its strategy, and its messaging, God only knows.


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Show comments
  • Jingogunner

    How likely is that Cast iron Christian Dyno Rod was fully aware of the content of the paedophile files missing from Parliamentary archives and how likely is it that he was complicit in their removal? How can anyone be so cretinously stupid enough to vote LABTOR after the panoply of lies, deceit, negligence, incompetence and self serving greed which defines it?

  • revkevblue

    UKIP is a vote for freedom from the EU and all that entails.
    If you don’t recognise your town centre from Ten Years ago, what do you think it will look like in another six years if you don’t vote UKIP?

  • EschersStairs

    Surely the only thing that UKIP needs to say in response is: “Vote Cameron, get… Cameron”.

  • http://atoryblog.blogspot.com Man in a Shed

    The Conservatives could settle the UKIP problem tomorrow by standing down in seats UKIP are close to winning.. It would be reciprocated. But then this is really all about preventing UKIP getting any MPs even if the price is Miliband as PM. ( Cuts both ways you see ).

    • Aberrant_Apostrophe

      Indeed. Tories cut spite nose off face to. Rearrange to form a well-known saying.

  • iain paton mckie

    In 2010 people who ‘Voted Cameron Got Clegg’

  • lakelander

    So we could have a left-wing government of an essentially right-wing electorate.

    Sounds like the stuff street protests are made out of.

  • DaveL
  • Aberrant_Apostrophe

    Labour are assuming that UKIP will stand against Tory candidates in marginal seats. If UKIP and the Tories come to some arrangement as to who stands where, then Labour will be toast.

    • Streben80

      There wont be an arrangement. More likely that Labour will work with UKIP to hurt the Tories. In my area it is Labour that have made advances to UKIP, the Tories stick their noses in the air and pretend we are invisable.
      The word from above is that UKIP will have a candidate in every seat, if nothing else we owe it to our voters not to abandon them for scraps from the Tory table.

    • Suzy61

      Exactly. In my constituency, a Labour stronghold, a vote for UKIP will detract from Labour only. The Conservatives are already voting UKIP here. Let’s hope those most betrayed will do the same.

  • Augustus

    “The challenge for Lynton Crosby et al is to fashion a strategy…”

    “Lynton Crosby has been described as a ‘master of the dark political arts’,” so does that include that clever political art of stealing UKIP’s national policies as soon as they are announced?

  • misomiso

    You can see that this is happening in the press with articles in Telegraph highlighting the prospect of a Miliband Government to get UKIP voters back.

    And you can also see the Tories trying to dangle a lot of treats to re attract UKIP voters.

    But its all about immigration. Cameron wont offer this to the country and its astonishing, and he wont get the Eurosceptics as they think he will cheat and pull a Wilson to win the referendum.

  • Dr_TJ_Eckleberg

    “an unpopular left-wing party will win power if the right remains divided.”

    There is only one party of the right (and it isn’t the Conservatives). So there is no division.

  • cambridgeelephant

    Total rubbish ! If UKIP poll only 10% that will probably hurt the Tories more. But if they poll 20% then it hits the others just as hard.

    The objective is to hit 35% in their target seats and they are quite capable of doing that. In a 4 way fight the ‘national poll figure’ disguises what is happening in specific constituencies.

    Vote UKIP – get UKIP. The elections in May showed that clearly.

    And it’s also worth noting that if Cameron had not halved Conservative Party membership, there might be more Tories on the ground come May.

    Hedgefund millionaires might offer Cameron plenty of money but they offer zero in terms of pavement pounding. UKIP membership is up and rising by the way. Unlike the other three.

  • Smithersjones2013

    Doesn’t anyone smell a rat here? Labour validating a Tory campaign narrative? What benefit is there for Labour in doing that?

    1) It does Labour’s campaigning for them. There is considerable considered opinion amongst psephologists that the higher the UKIP vote goes the more it eats into the Labour vote and as such the less likely Labour are of taking certain seats.. As Lord Ashcroft’s polling identifies if UKIP take Thurrock and Thanet South as they are on target to do they deny Labour those seats as much as they deny the Tories and if UKIp go on a roll you could see Labour held seats fall as well.. .

    2) It distracts Tories from the key group of voters. Labour’s current position is dependent on former Libdem voters who switched in horror at Clegg fornicating with Cameron in 2010. That switch has been constant over the last 4 years. Unless those voters can be persuaded to go elsewhere (pretty much anywhere but Labour) then it does not matter how many UKIP voters the Tories claw back Labour will win. There are simply not enough former Tory voters now with UKIP to make the difference up.

    Bangin’ on about UKIP, the EU and immigration and such like is also the most certain way to ensure those disaffected Libdem voters cling to the Labour Party.

    If the Tories are distracted by UKIP and do not focus on discrediting Labour they will lose the 2015 election.

    3) It is wasted effort on the part of the Tory party. For as many former Tory now UKIP voters as may return to the Tory party there are just as many now that have been repelled by the ‘Labour-like’ smearing and abuse adopted by the Tories in relation to UKIP to the point where they will never vote Tory again under the vile repellant Blairite Cameroons. Until the cancer of urban liberal elitism has been purged from the Tory party then they are just not even worth considering for many self respecting conservatives!

    Labour in pandering to the Tories pet obsessions are furthering their own agenda not helping the Tories. Sadly the Tories are sufficiently thick and politically inept to fall for it! Once again the Tories will dance to Labour’s tune!

  • Tomrat

    None of the parties will give you anything near what we require because we all require disparate things; the state as a whole now has too much clout on too many areas long held by civil society and it is incumbent on us as the birthplace for the modern free western world to take. it. back.

    We should do this via the following route:
    1. Spoil your vote: register an interest in engaging in democracy, just not with the rigged system and it’s incumbent elite.
    2. Starve the beast: omit, save and scrimp every last penny and resource that can be saved, scrimped and omitted, make them work extra hard for monies they can legitimately claim (fill out tax returns wrongly, ask long questions in writing from local and national agencies without a return envelope; in short make it a difficult and expensive chore taking money from your pocket) and make it clear to them that you are the boss.
    3. Demand real change: 2 words to this end (google it): Harrogate Agenda.

    • Colonel Mustard

      Lawful rebellion is the only answer.

  • dado_trunking

    We saw this kind of war coming, didn’t we? What the British electorate urgently require is another pact – a *warsaw pact II*.

    The bigoted far-right commies by the likes of Rees-Mogg and so on need to familiarise themselves with the idea of not fielding a Tory candidate in North East Somerset in the interest of the nation’s survival.
    You see, what we cannot have is Gidiot doubling the nation’s debt again whilst devaluing the nation in 25% increments. Nothing else matters.

    • Inverted Meniscus

      Is there a gibberish spouting socialist nutter out there who can translate the gibberish of this gibberish spouting socialist nutter and his euro-speak gibberish?

    • The Masked Marvel

      Rees-Mogg is a bigoted commie? Your sad devotion to that ancient religion has not helped you conjure up a coherent thought, or given you clairvoyance enough to know what UKIP’s strategy will be.

  • Chingford Man

    Anyone with a pair of eyes can see that the Tories cannot win an election with a high UKIP vote. The Tories can do nothing about squeezing this UKIP support down to a level where even a Tory minority government becomes viable. Why is this news?

  • Ian Walker

    Vote Dave, get Juncker.
    Vote Ed, get Juncker.
    Vote Nick, get Juncker.

    • Ricky Dullaly

      Most the British people would prefer Juncker to farago.

      • Wessex Man

        Hur hur hur zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

      • Inverted Meniscus

        Yes a fat bureaucrat with a penchant for the booze who hates Britain is what we are all desperate for. Not…..

      • Colonel Mustard

        Doubt it.

  • JoeDM

    Vote LibLabCon. Get LibLabCon !!!

  • Lady Magdalene

    Nice to see it being acknowledged that UKIP could quite easily get 9% of the vote.
    Personally, I think 12% is more likely.

    • anyfool

      I think you might be underestimating the disgust people feel towards the two main parties and the previous party known as the Lib Dems., I say previous as they cannot survive in its present form, real libertarians have to throw out the far left socialists that have no place in it.

      • HookesLaw

        I think you are underestimating the charm that UKIP are held in.
        Its pretty plain fact that vote UKIP and you will get a labour govt. Split the right vote, especially when the left vote is uniting then its clear what will happen. Pretending there are no differencess between Labour and Tory is just your fantasy to justify you in your prejudice.

        • Wessex Man

          never change Hooky babe, you are one of the best recruiting tools for UKip.

        • Denis_Cooper

          What, the awful “prejudice” of believing that we should possess and control our own country rather than have it reduced to a legally subordinated component of a pan-European federation as Tory traitors like you would prefer?

      • Flatdog

        Real Libertarians should consider voting for the Libertarian Party of the UK. UKIP has Libertarian members, as do LIBLABCON, but it is not a libertarian party. Vote Libertarian!

        • anyfool

          Actually Nigel Farage seems to be just the man for Libertarians to support, you cannot be a Libertarian while at the same time as professing support for undemocratic institutions like the EU, the UN and all the imposed NGO`s slinking around the world creating carnage where they lay down laws, laws designed to suit them and their spawned local officers.

          • Flatdog

            There is a lot more to Libertarianism than taking an anti-EU stance, and Farage is very definitely NOT a Libertarian. He is just as Statist as LIBLABCON are, and does not stand for freedom of the Individual or Small State/Low Tax government. Vote Libertarian!

            • the viceroy’s gin

              But when the EUSSR finishes its long march, it won’t matter who’s the purest libertarian. And so, as the prime bit of business, sovereignty is the most important issue. Achieve that, and the rest of the libertarian arguments can be addressed. Fail that, and you best not look to Brussels for any libertarian satisfaction, as they will likely open reeducation camps for the libertarians .

              • Flatdog

                Indeed, but anyone wishing to form a government needs a much more broad, in-depth vision and action plan for the future than exiting the EU and being beastly to immigrants. The Libertarian party has a wide ranging set of policies which includes withdrawing from the EU, not because of a gung-ho, “bloody foreigner” attitude, but because centralised power is anathema to us, whether that be in Brussels, London or Edinburgh.

                The Libertarian Party continues to provide a home for disillusioned Libertarians from UKIP, and those thrown out of the party in Stalinist-style purges from time-to-time.

                Vote Libertarian!

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  I don’t think UKIP expects to form a government in 2015, but they’ll still fight for sovereignty as the prime issue. And to repeat, if the EUSSR gets its way, absolutely nobody will be forming a government, in short order .

          • Flatdog

            Actually.

    • Ricky Dullaly

      What difference does it make whether its 9 or 12%?

      • Denis_Cooper

        3%.

  • Lady Magdalene

    The solution is in the Conservative Party’s hands. Get rid of Cameron and the LibCONs and find a real Conservative to lead the Party. Owen Paterson’s got time on his hands.
    Then change Conservative Party policy from one that advocates membership of the EU and will do anything it can to ensure we remain a vassal of it, to one that proposes invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and Better Off Out.
    Otherwise, I’m not interested.
    PS. The Conservative Party has betrayed us too much, lied too many times and Cameron and chums have thrown too many insults our way for me ever consider voting Tory whilst the current Elite are in place.

    • Ricky Dullaly

      The Conservative Party lives in the real world, unlike loopy UKIP.

      • Wessex Man

        doally this doally that are you tele babe indisguise?

      • Smithersjones2013

        Indeed which is why Tories obsess about a party that has no current representation in the HoC whilst failing to do any serious harm to their main rivals led by the awful and absurd Ed Miliband

        Tories would be hilarious if they weren’t so pathetic

      • Inverted Meniscus

        Perhaps you should think about joining the real World then.

      • Denis_Cooper

        The Conservative party has been controlled by eurofederalists for the past half century or more and there is no prospect that will change; hence, vote Tory, get betrayed, again.

  • Colonel Mustard

    What desperation! telemachus is running up and down the thread frantically tagging each comment because he doesn’t know which one is going to be top.

  • Ken

    The sad reality is that for a great many of us who voted UKIP at the european elections (the first time I ever voted for a party other than the Tories) is not because we left the conservatives, but because the conservatives left us.

    If Crosby can persuade the leadership to return to their core, they will win us back.

    • Alexsandr

      or maybe the tory party has become so toxic it is simply unelectable
      vast swathes of the UK hate the tories because of facha, the miners strike, the poll tax and now this coalition. Maybe its time for a new right of centre party to rise from the ashes. One that people will vote for who would never vote tory.

      • Last Man Standing

        I don’t see how it would ever be possible to vote for LibLabCon. The Conservative Party is not conservative at all. It needs replacing while it still can be. UKIP is not necessarily that replacement but it is the only political party which will provide the democratic space to restore conservatism. The rest have all sold their souls to the Common Purpose agenda.

    • Ricky Dullaly

      Crosby and the Conservatives will focus on the main issue which is the economy.

      Only a small percentage of the population like banging on about the EU.

      • Wessex Man

        yes do us a favour and go on thinking that.

      • Denis_Cooper

        Most of the population want their country to be an independent sovereign state in perpetuity, they do not want it to become part of a European federation as preferred by a tiny percentage including those who control the Tory party. However patriotic the average ordinary Tory member may be they are not the ones who control the party, that has long been in thrall to eurofederalists, and people like you are supporting them in their treachery.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        …hmmmmm, and where did you Camerloons finish in those EUSSR elections last May?

        • Patrick Mooney

          Voter turnout was only 30%.

          General elections have double the turnouts.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            …so you Camerloons finished poorly, I take it. That’s what I thought .

  • Colonel Mustard

    Careful with your family rows, folks. Yvette Cooper wants more prosecutions and cautions for “domestic abuse” with Plod’s big boot firmly over the threshold of family hearth and home. The term “domestic abuse” is now being expanded to include such subjectivity as emotional harm. And you can bet Cooper doesn’t have female offenders in mind.

    Of course none of this is intended to apply to situations of “cultural difference”.

    • Inverted Meniscus

      Spot on. How long will it be before sturmbannfuhrer Cooper proposes that CCTV be installed inside every white middle class household as a means of preventing domestic violence? Her justification for such an intrusion, it goes almost without saying, would be: “Because it’s the right thing to do”.

      • telemachus

        More predictable misogyny from the High Sheriff Deputy, Morgan Earp

        • Colonel Mustard

          More lies from the real High Sheriff of Coffee House Whata Twerp who rides up and down Main Street tagging every comment that doesn’t conform to Lieborg groupthink.

          Nothing in either comment could be construed as misogyny. My contempt for Cooper has nothing to do with her gender but to her behaviour as a politician and the risk she poses to liberty and justice. My concern is about the misandry that seems to infect both parties and especially the fact that concern about gender discrimination (“pale, male and stale”) and misandry is now turned on its head as “misogyny” to shut down dissent, precisely the same tactics played with concerns about immigration and “racism”.

          The day you vile Lieborg people engage in honest debate rather than smears intended to intimidate dissent and coerce conformity will be the day Satan buys thermal.

        • Inverted Meniscus

          Nothing to do with her gender but simply a reflection of her Fascist Labour authoritarianism and indefatigable, desperate need to control the thinking of Britain’s population. Typical of the entire Fascist Labour front bench and matched only by its complete absence of talent, experience and competence. It is after all, the party of lies, lying, liars, failure and incompetence.

      • Conway

        Or “If you’ve got nothing to hide, you’ve got nothing to fear …”

    • https://www.facebook.com/ExposingFeminism?ref=hl&ref_type=bookmark Exposing Feminism

      “And you can bet Cooper doesn’t have female offenders in mind.”

      No – nor male victims – who comprise roughly 40% of the victims of domestic violence. This renders her intention to bring in a “violence against women and girls bill” somewhat curious, especially when you also take into consideration that fact that males are much more likely than females to be victims of violent crime in general.

      http://www.theguardian.com/society/2010/sep/05/men-victims-domestic-violence

      She also wants feminism taught in schools, so that young boys will receive an ̶e̶d̶u̶c̶a̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ indoctrination into the benefits of her poisonous, misandrist ideology, without which they’ll all grow up to become abusive man-beasts…

      http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2683351/Teach-boys-feminists-stop-culture-abuse-girls-says-Labour.html

      This gender bigotry is nasty stuff.

      http://tinyurl.com/nd9sphn

  • alabenn

    Ed Miliband will win Downing Street if Ukip polls 9 per cent of voters.

    And you think that Labour would reveal this if it were true, they would be doing everything in their power to cover this up, so as to prevent Tories returning.
    The more likely scenario is that Labour are trying to persuade their own supporters among the white working class, that UKIP are Tories in disguise.
    That probably means that UKIP is making serious inroads into their heartlands.
    Try a bit of lateral thinking Mr Blackburn.

    • Denis_Cooper

      Well, putting it simply 9% = the 3% or so that the Tories are presently behind Labour in the opinion polls plus the 6% or so that the Tories need to be ahead of Labour to have a chance of getting an overall majority with the unchanged constituency boundaries. So their assumption could be that if UKIP ceased to exist all of the 9% would vote Tory instead, which is clearly a completely false assumption but one which the Tory party also likes to disseminate.

      • Alexsandr

        one wonders how many kippers are those that havent voted for some years because they never liked any of liblabcon.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          That could be a fairly substantial number, and it’d be good if UKIP identified them as a collective and shaped their approach to attract them. These would be voters who vote for something, not tribalist drones who just vote.

    • Alexsandr

      look at council elections in South Yorkshire. Even in Millibands constituency. More and more people are seeing Labours treason against its core vote and dont like it.
      the polls had in wrong in 1992 when kinnock lost. People didnt want to tell the pollsters they were going to vote tory. One wonders if thats true about UKIP now.

      • Andy

        Keep telling you to get busy and destroy the Fascist Labour Party. They are the enemy.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          LibLabCon is the enemy, lad. Socialists all, they are.

      • The_Missing_Think

        “the polls had it wrong in 1992 when kinnock lost”
        _____

        Especially since May, when the MSM’s underhand tactics hosed UKIP down with ‘grey uniform’ mud. This ‘grey mud’, will discourage an open ‘confession‘ to a complete stranger.

        Combined with 2010 result (UKIP 3.9%) ‘weighting’, the polls are probably well off beam.

    • Ricky Dullaly

      The low-educated white working class is not enough for UKIP to win a single seat in Parliament.

      • Wessex Man

        My wha a nice view you have of your fellow human beings.

      • alabenn

        The low educated white working class as you so sneeringly put it, will continue to vote Labour, they like the low educated third world peasants Labour imported still believe in the Magic Money Tree.

        UKIP will get seats how many is irrelevant, they will stop Labour from getting any extra seats in the south and prevent or even cause the loss of some in the north, Balls should be very worried in his seat.

        The low educated white working class, will continue to vote Labour, they like the low educated third world peasants Labour imported still believe in the Magic Money Tree.

      • Smithersjones2013

        ‘The low-educated’

        Sneering down your arrogant Tory nose at others who vote for other parties will not get you supporters.

        You just have to look at Ashcroft’s latest Westminster polls where UKIP lead in Thanet South and Thurrock to know your assertions are more panicked desperation than reality

      • terence patrick hewett

        Please write out 100 times “The support of the lowly educated white working class is not sufficient to gain UKIP a Parliamentary seat.”

      • Denis_Cooper

        Are you pretending to be a Tory to bring that party into even more disrepute as a bunch of arrogant anti-democrats?

  • Blindsideflanker

    Hardly a mandate if Cameron is going to rely on votes against Labour, not for him.

    The contempt the Westminster village has for the electorate comes through load and clear in articles like this. They seem to be on a different planet looking at us through the wrong end of a telescope. They don’t ask why people are voting for UKIP, they try and play the fear card and marshal blocks of voters that way.

    • Alexsandr

      quite. If the only reason the tories have to vote for them is the negative one to keep milipede out, then they dont deserve to be in government.

      I would hope that people vote for the party they want. not note for a party they dont want to keep out another party they dont want. that way is madness.

      • Inverted Meniscus

        Such is his desperation to gain power and start regulating our lives, he would do a deal with Satan himself if he strolled up to the Commons with a couple of seats.

        • Blindsideflanker

          Cameron would do a deal with the Devil, but offering his core support some policies they want Cameron would find to be an intolerable imposition .

    • Lady Magdalene

      That’s because it is only fairly recently that Cameron has really understood the complete folly of deliberately alienating what was your core vote …. in the arrogant belief that they had no-where else to go.
      We are well into the “yank on the handbrake, screeching U turn” phase now.

      • Blindsideflanker

        If only, if screeching U turns are being done it is a slight moderation in the language he uses to attacks his core support. Policy wise I really don’t see any change, all we have had is a slight change in the rhetoric and spin.

        Cameron is not fixing the out of control immigration, he’s not stemming the haemorrhage of our sovereignty, he is not doing anything about the West Lothian Question, his Foreign Office Minister , Hammond, still comes on the TV and calls us little Englanders, he is still seeking to bulldoze and concrete over England, his Ministers are still taking pleasure in aggravating the Shires.

        If Cameron is throwing some red meat to his core support it is a microscopic morsel that I missed.

        • MrsDBliss

          He’s still supporting divisive equality and diversity measures as per the cabinet reshuffle.

      • Magnolia

        I don’t think he has understood it. I don’t think he ever wanted to.
        I think he is a true Blairite to the core and he has always thought that he would win by getting Tony Blair’s voters to back him because he is at heard politically aligned with Mr A Blair, former leader of New Labour and a proven election winner.
        The problem is that it is all fantasy.
        That was then and this is now.

    • Ricky Dullaly

      I can’t wait to see Ukipper faces when your party and Farage win absolutely no seats in the 2015 general election. It’s going to be utterly hilarious.

      • Wessex Man

        Don’t keep repeating yourself, it makes you look silly oh alright carry on.

      • Denis_Cooper

        Yes, it will be absolutely hilarious if a fifth of those who vote choose UKIP but end up without a single UKIP MP to represent them.

  • Magnolia

    This ignores the number of Labour voters moving over to UKIP.
    Old Labour types that believe in close knit communities with collective responsibilities to each other have been dumped by Labour in recent years.
    Ed’s Labour only believes in the power of the state, rather like Camacaroon’s Conservative Party.
    They might be old but UKIP will hoover up their votes.
    At the present moment in time the countryside voters are having their values trashed by an omnipresent metropolitan voter bias across the board, such are the failings of our beloved democracy.
    We have no where else to go except to destruction so why not with Labour?

    • Ricky Dullaly

      How many labour voters have moved to Ukip?

      • Wessex Man

        er all the voters who elected Ukip Councillors in the Labour heartlands!

      • Denis_Cooper

        Getting on for 2 million by my estimate.

  • rtj1211

    Just because Labour might be the biggest party doesn’t mean they will rule if they don’t command a majority in HOC.

    If UKIP + Conservatives + Libdems = more than Labour+Green, who says that Labour has won??

    Would Farage do a deal with Ed Miliband? Would Clegg/his successor?

    If not, would they do a deal with Cameron/his successor??

    Election results like last times aren’t things the media thinks about very much.

    If they did, they wouldn’t make such bland statements about Miliband and power.

    • Alexsandr

      one wonders if milipede will be stupid enough to do a deal with the duplicious poisonous and hated limp dumps

      • anyfool

        He will do what McClusky tells him, no if, no buts.

      • MrsDBliss

        Yes they will. They’ll just see it that the limps have been poorly treated by the evil Tories, as per their recent shrinking man advert, but who have the ‘right’ idea because they’re progressives who want to spend all our money. Unlike the Tory progressives who want to pretend their saving us money.

    • Ricky Dullaly

      Don’t worry, Cameron won’t do a deal with loony UKip.

      • southerner

        Dave’s head will be on a spike next May thank goodness. Let’s hope it leads to the implosion of the Tory party and a conservative party is formed to take its place.

      • Inverted Meniscus

        He did a deal with the LibDems a coterie of amoral scumbags and promise breakers. Doing a deal with UKIP would seem to be the acme of clear sightedness and wisdom by comparison. So no chance of that happening.

  • swatnan

    Its funny how history repeats itself. The 2015 GE is going to be a re-run of the 1992 GE. But, think, its was Portillo and his B*srtards that schemed and plotted and eventually wore down Poor John Major into the ground with their relentless assault on Europe and neo conservatism, that delivered the 1997 GE into the hands of Labour, and with a whopping majority too. So is it to be 1992 or 1997? Nigel must be Ed’s best friend on the premise that ‘my enemies enemy is my friend’. Well done Nigel, or should I say Sir Nigel in 2015.

    • Ricky Dullaly

      Don’t worry, Nigel Faragge won’t win a single seat in 2015.

      • swatnan

        You wish! I’m afraid Nige and his doughnuts will pick up at least 15 seats in 2015, and thats enough to hold the balance of power, with the Lib Dems and Greens trailing behind. UKIP is the Party of protest now.

  • Denis_Cooper

    What the Telegraph has ignored, and for all I know the Labour researchers ignored, is that in the months after the 2010 general election there was a massive defection of voters from the LibDems to Labour, see the left hand side of the charts here:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls.html

    So when an opinion pollster trying to work out where UKIP is now getting its support asks a UKIP supporter the standard question “How did you vote in 2010?” then the correct answer to that may be “LibDem”; but if the pollster instead asked “Which party did you support before you switched to supporting UKIP?” then the correct answer to that question posed to the same person may be “Labour”.

    Hence by harking back to how UKIP supporters voted in May 2010 the opinion polls will always be under-estimating the effect that UKIP is having on support for Labour.

    • rtj1211

      Perceptive comments. Perhaps the most interesting stat which pollsters should track is the total number of ‘core supporters of either Labour or Conservative’, which has been dropping steadily for half a century.

      The total of Libdem+UKIP+Green = votes for non-big two, which has been fairly steadily about 20% for a good long while now. In the past it has been almost uniquely Libdem. Now it is getting split, the question is whether that means that they lose all representation, despite the same number of voters saying ‘not Labour or Conservative’?

      The crisis of non-representative power has been upon us for all of the 21st century to date, and it something that neither Labour or Conservative wish to face up to.

      • Denis_Cooper

        We would get closer to the truth if opinion pollsters asked a question which related to the present situation rather than that in May 2010.

        As I suggested they could ask UKIP supporters which party they were supporting before they switched to supporting UKIP, but even better and more direct they could ask a question along these lines:

        “Supposing that there was no UKIP candidate standing in your constituency at the next general election, which other party, if any, would you vote for?”

        • Sapporo

          Yes, because many UKIP voters would not vote, in such a scenario

      • MrsDBliss

        I voted for labour all my adult life but got fed up of the destructive, progressive, diversity politics. Is switched to Tories hoping for sanity and found they were the same, hence my thinking of voting UKIP.

      • http://owsblog.blogspot.com Span Ows

        …don’t forget BNP who polled double the Green vote in 2010. In terms of bare numbers they were the 5th largest party. They have slipped well back now but the numbers are significant (if you going to include minor parties like Green)

        • Ricky Dullaly

          The BNP are even more incompetent than UKIP.

          • Wessex Man

            making them a close second to Labour!

    • Ricky Dullaly

      I can’t wait to see Farage’s face when UKIP end up with zero seats in 2015. LOL

      • Wessex Man

        Now listen here doally, after the next GE the Lib/dums will be consigned to history, the Tory will lose 18 seats to UKip (The Tory Party’s own calculations) and lame Labour will probably lose the same amount.

      • southerner

        I similarly can’t wait to see Dave’s face when the removal men arrive next May.

      • Smithersjones2013

        Funny I would have thought that who has won the right to reside in Downing Street will be the primary concern.

        Little things please little minds I suppose which probably explains why the Tories stand no chance of winning a majority and why Labour chose such a loser as Miliband.

  • saffrin

    Wishful thinking on the propaganda machine’s part.
    UKIP has no contest.
    Even the MSM’s hate campaign couldn’t slow UKIP’s advance in the Euro’ elections and I see no reason the General Election should prove otherwise.
    LibLabCon have nothing to offer but more of the same.
    Debt and Domination.

    • rtj1211

      What you see and what the totality of voters see may be different things.

      It’s the first rule of politics: never let your personal opinions get in the way of what the market is telling you……

      • the viceroy’s gin

        …too bad your boy Clegg never figured that out.

        • Inverted Meniscus

          Plenty of activity from the Goat on the Jon Snow thread Viceroy.

    • Sapporo

      On the contrary, I reckon the MSM’s smear campaign and electoral fraud (fake UKIP parties) was quite successful, reducing UKIP’s vote by 8-10%. Don’t underestimate the power of the MSM and their collaboration with the political elite.

      • Ricky Dullaly

        They weren’t smears. Just the media doing its job uncovering the very strange and very vile UKIP candidates.

        • Wessex Man

          I googled Lib/dum-Labour-Tory councillors when this was all going on and found pages and pages of foul Councillors who had done far worse that any UKip candidate but Ukip wouldn’t use it because ‘that would make them as bad as the rest.’

          A mistake, I do hope that UKip will hit back when they start again, Leading up to the GE.

          Anyone for a bombing spree in Denbigh? Look it up!

    • Ricky Dullaly

      It wasn’t a hate campaign. Even Farrage said himself that those UKIP candidates were oddballs.

      • saffrin

        They had to go back 12yrs in one incident.
        As Nigel Farage said, the media didn’t report one Labour MP being jailed.

  • WatTylersGhost

    The truth for the Conservatives is simple: “Keep Cameron – get Milliband”

    • telemachus

      Put in Davis
      And get Miliband with a bigger majority

      • saffrin

        Miliband is going nowhere and soon replaced after next May by that asian chappy your lot are promoting.
        How confused can Labour be to think that would be a winner?

        • MrsDBliss

          The one who says UKIP voters aren’t able to operate a computer? As far as I’m concerned he’s just promoting ageism.

          • Colonel Mustard

            They all are. “Pale, male and stale”. If the first two words of that term had been antonyms the police would be investigating. It was an outrageous double standard of racism, sexism and ageism and every journalist who has used it without protest should hang their head in shame.

        • telemachus

          A perspicacious post
          But it is Ed Balls that will take us into the roaring twenties

          • Wessex Man

            This halfwit actually believes that Ed Balls has been forgiven by the British people! in the image of his master Gordon Brown, the only way he would lead them is to exile!

    • Ricky Dullaly

      Farage can’t even decide which seat to stand for.

      • Last Man Standing

        Why should that matter?

      • Aberrant_Apostrophe

        That’s because there are so many to choose from.

  • @PhilKean1

    .
    They say push this line as though losing David Cameron as PM –

    – would be some sort of catastrophic event. It wouldn’t.

    Instead of trying to frighten vulnerable, politically-ignorant voters about the prospect of letting in Labour by default, it would be better to focus on the fact that David Cameron has been and continues to be a disastrous Prime Minister.

    In fact, a good counter to their scare would be – “vote Cameron, get Miliband, in all but name”.

    At some point the British people must come to understand that they face a catastrophic demise if Britain remains in the Socialist EU. It is no secret that David Cameron is trying to keep Britain IN the EU under all conditions. In that, there is no difference between him and Miliband.
    .

    • telemachus

      They actually face a catastrophic demise if Britain tries to leave the EU from the financial collapse that will ensue

      • alabenn

        The country facing a financial demise is Germany if they do what needs to be done to save the whole sorry mess from collapse, no single country in the world has the financial clout or inclination to rescue the EU.

        • telemachus

          Folks underestimate Germany at their peril
          Ask Chamberlain

          • Wessex Man

            You slimy liar, you have actually shown why you want to stay in Europe to be dominated by Germany, you being a National Socialist like the Nazis!

      • @PhilKean1

        I give thanks that increasing number of British people are no longer deceived by such lies and scares.

        What a shame that you are able to peddle them without being challenged. If only you and I could debate our “arguments” in front of the British people live on TV. What would you do when I dismantle your baseless scares?
        .

        • Inverted Meniscus

          I would pay to see you demolish that cretin.

          • @PhilKean1

            So would I – :-)
            .

        • Colonel Mustard

          + 1

      • Inverted Meniscus

        Which is such a ridiculous statement it deserves its own place in the pantheon of idiocy.

      • Alexsandr

        this is the pet lie form the EU luvvies. Cleggs 3m jobs line has been totally debunked.
        Its funny how many countries around the world manage to exist outside the EU

        • Andy

          Indeed so. It’s a miracle.

      • Inverted Meniscus

        I am afraid that tissue of lies and scaremongering closed out of town laddie.

    • Wessex Man

      Now you see the warped logic of Labour in all it’s glory from the loony tune below, who has no idea about the dreadful state of the Euro Zone. WHo believes everything fat gut Balls tells him.

  • an ex-tory voter

    The answer is simple, move the Tory Party to the “right” and re occupy the centre ground. Cease implementing socialist policies, cease sacking successful “Conservative” ministers, begin promoting, explaining and defending Conservative values and policies (Thatcherism by any other name). Shrink the state, regain control of the nation from Brussels and remove the “boy wonder”

    • telemachus

      You can weave an duck
      To no effect
      The writing is on the wall

      • Inverted Meniscus

        Yes and it reads “FO Labour we are sick of your incompetence and lies”.

      • Alexsandr

        only an idiot counts his chickens. the result of the GE will only be known when we have counted the X’s on buts of paper.

        • http://owsblog.blogspot.com Span Ows

          the problem with a but of paper [sic] is that the excrement soon soaks through and makes it worthless (much like most of our politicians).

        • Inverted Meniscus

          He is an idiot and the World and Olympic Chicken Counting champion.

      • MrsDBliss

        What writing? Labour is so unattractive that they can only rely on UKIP splitting the conservative vote to get in?

        • telemachus

          To win is all

          • MrsDBliss

            Really? Not produce a better society? To aid the life’s of the country’s citizens? Just win?
            Yes, that does follow with what the Labour Party has done in the past. After all by winning they can ‘earn’ their million pound fortunes, they have their serfs to wait on them for cheap wages, they can ensure their children have the best jobs because of who they’re related to by developing a system that works against the poorest. Yes, winning. It’s so good for them.

            • Colonel Mustard

              It’s part of the arrogance that makes them think they are always right about everything and because they “care” no-one should oppose them. When anyone does oppose them they have to manipulate the language to demonise by smearing, as telemachus regularly does here. They have transformed public debate into a moral, quasi-religious crusade and their aspirations taken to a logical conclusion will mean a single party state.

              They and their collective are increasingly following a Marcusean path in trying to dominate the narrative. It is a chilling prognosis for Britain.

            • Inverted Meniscus

              You forgot to mention the fact that they can enjoy trying to regulate every aspect of our lives whilst wasting our money gerrymandering the welfare dependent vote.

            • telemachus

              You have to win
              The production of a better society is then a given

              • Inverted Meniscus

                No a record structural deficit is a certainty.

              • Colonel Mustard

                No it’s not. Labour have never produced a better society but only an impoverished society at war with itself with ever increasing identity groups whining that they are not treated “fairly”.

                Labour is a recipe for strife and misery because it feeds on that in order to peddle the narrative that only it can change things. In fact get rid of Labour and the nonsense peddled by people like you and society would be a whole lot better already.

              • MrsDBliss

                Really? It’s a given? What happened after labours last time in office? Why are so many working class leaving them to the point you have to use scare tactics to get them to vote for you?

        • Wessex Man

          Much like the halfwit below!

        • Roger Hudson

          Yes, that’s what our wonderful democratic (?) system has descended to. A system that only works in a two party country.
          Time for a re-think, work out a proportional system that keeps a geographic member link , get the MPs down to 500 or less, and penalises tactical nonsense.

      • saffrin

        The writing was on a note.
        “There is no money”

      • Smithersjones2013

        The writing is on the wall

        What?

        Kilroy Was ‘Ere

        ?????????

      • Colonel Mustard

        “The writing is on the wall”

        Yes indeed. 20% swing to UKIP from Labour in Doncaster:-

        http://order-order.com/2014/07/28/ukip-steal-council-seat-in-milibands-doncaster-on-20-swing/

        Oh dear. Not going to plan.

    • Wessex Man

      In other words- vote UKip- don’t vote Tory or you get loony labour!

      See below for prime example!

    • Ricky Dullaly

      UKIP’s manifesto will be a total joke.

      • Wessex Man

        Your moniker is amn awlful lot like doally and you spout enough rubbish to live down to it!

      • Colonel Mustard

        Hmm. Monday morning. New Labour strategy, new Labour script, flurry of activity and new “names” from Labour’s online trolling “initiative”.

        What’s not to smell.

        • Smithersjones2013

          Thats the thing Labour are smart enough to know when their leader has screwed up (that absurd speech over the weekend) and release some chaff and distract the enemy.

          One press release with UKIP in it and Tories are frothing in totally the opposite direction. It really is sad to see how easily manipulated the Tories are. They don’t deserve to be a political party anymore

      • Inverted Meniscus

        Well thank you for that penetrating analysis.

      • Jingogunner

        Your desperate hope?

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