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David Cameron can’t afford any more slip-ups

31 July 2014

3:10 PM

31 July 2014

3:10 PM

From now until September 18th, the Scottish referendum will rightly dominate national politics. Tuesday night’s debate between Alistair Darling and Alex Salmond is the Yes campaign’s last and best chance to gather the momentum it needs to pull off an improbable victory.

But, as British Election Survey data shows, the result of the referendum is not a foregone conclusion. If the ‘undecideds’ keep breaking the same way, the result will be No 53.6 per cent, Yes 44.6 per cent. This is too close for comfort.

But if Scotland votes No, attention will quickly shift to next May’s UK election. It is a sign of how speeded-up our politics has become that David Cameron’s political career could be over two years before his 50th birthday. But, as I say in the magazine this week, the next election remains winnable for him, particularly if winning is simply defined as him remaining prime minister. If Cameron is to do this with the constituency boundaries against him, the left unified and the right divided, he can’t afford any slip-ups. He will have to get everything right.

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  • Makroon

    Slip-ups like charging into UK-damaging, pointless, “sanctions” on Russia, which could conceivably slow the recovery and give Balls some ammunition, you mean ?
    Cameron – popular with the majority of politically un-engaged Brits, but a dead weight to his government. Can’t someone get him interested in a hobby or something ?

  • Pier66

    English people Love animals, fair play , are usually reserved , know how to communicate .
    Have common sense and persistence, an immense past and a great future.
    Pragmatic , rational, sometimes irrational , diplomats , balanced, respectful of the rules .
    They have brought into the world democracy , law, sports, technology , development, education, culture and tradition , everything is more ‘ high right and noble for the proper development of a country.
    These are all positive and recognized by all British Colonies around the World .
    The UK epicenter of well-being based on industrialization and the colonies , is home
    Parliamentary democracy and freedom .
    Avantguard of the new industrial production, paradise of the economists , entrepreneurs International is the country ‘s most beautiful and noble of Sports : Football with LFC best team in the world, Cricket , Rugby , Tennis, Ping – Pong ) Clubs of the most exclusive, of an attitude towards life ironic dealt with the right humor, is the country of elegance, ingenuity of the best colleges and universities recognized worldwide , where they come from esempre genes economics, philosophy, politics, medicine, technology, art, etc. .
    What are the guide and role model for young British.
    Today, it has the most advanced services and sophisticated in the world , the backbone of its economy that creates two-thirds of GDP wealth , and thank god I’m so ‘ sophisticated that they can escape any remaining pretensions communist , socialist statist interventionist , thus creating’ a lot of jobs, the well-being throughout the UK and around the world .British are the most important law firms through mergers and acquisitions of all the biggest companies in the world bill astonishing figures .
    The Pharmaceutical industry that bases its profits and its added value on research and high technology, the Tourism every year only downloads in London more than 13 million visitors
    much more of a Jubilee every year , the British press that has always been varied, unpredictable,
    irreverent , accurate ( but I Not talk about Guardian, Observer, Independent, Economist as well)
    sometimes even denied.
    Also we had to remember that the UK has saved the world from dictators , despots many times,
    we mention the most famous :
    Defeating the Spain of Philip II the Fair & Isabella ( worthy companion, who started the serious Jew expulsion of people from Spain in 1588 ( one of the ” Invincible Armada ” and the Inquisition ( one of the most infamous and downs of the Catholic Church ) .
    Then defeated by sea and by land France’s King Louis XIV (the famous Sun King, a close friend of the Jesuits ) , King George II of England ‘ made ​​against him the famous War of the 7 years, allying
    with Prussia of Frederick the Great , against the ‘ Austria, France and Russia.
    Then again defeated France ‘s despot dictator Napoleon and Italian origins of the Jacobins in 1805 with the immense and Horatio Nelson in 1815 in Waterloo with the Duke of Wellington who was the first Tory PM .
    Finally, under a Conservative government led by the great unsurpassed genius of Winston Churchill defeated Hitler’s Germany .
    Here this is just a small way of what is the legacy of the most beautiful and important Country in the world .Well Mr EGG MILLIBAND and LIB LAB do want more?

  • Pier66

    David Cameron can’t afford any more slip-ups….right…
    like SG…that can’t afford any other slip when play with LFC!

  • the viceroy’s gin

    Dave’s finished.

    In 9.25 months, his head is going to be mounted on a spike .

  • Mynydd

    Mr Cameron is leader of the Conservative and Unionist party, if the people of Scotland vote Yes, he is duty bound to go.

    • Mode4

      That’s true, he would be duty bound if he had any honour

  • JonBW

    If 44% of Scots vote ‘yes’, the Union is finished anyway…

  • Alexsandr

    come off it James. the people of England and Wales dont give a stuff about the Scottish referendum. Most think it will have no effect on their lives. So stop bigging it up.

    • dado_trunking

      Yes very good! And in next weeks column:
      Code Nap for the plebs – who needs Habeas Corpus when the French already have a far better system? It will have no effect on our lives either.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        …you and the goat best go have a nap, lad.

        And no funny business either .

  • HookesLaw

    I’m sure, surrounded by all your bottles of gin and cafeterias, you vacuous young people think yourselves very clever – but surely its Miliband who cannot afford any more slip-ups

  • southerner

    “…the next election remains winnable for him..”

    No. It. Doesn’t.

    Bye Dave. Off to the history books alongside Heath as one of the most useless Tory PMs ever.

    • HookesLaw

      You expose your stupidity.
      This govt have instituted massive reforms to health education welfare and pensions and steered us through the aftermath of one of our deepest recessions in history with aplomb.

      • southerner

        Bye Dave.

        • dado_trunking

          Don’t wind him up – it’s not fair … all this hard work ‘n’ all that.
          Please, vote Ukip!

          • the viceroy’s gin

            …please, bring your sockpuppet goat back, lad!

      • Som Trivedi

        Please tell me that you’re joking?!

        This socialist government/coalition led by 10s-of-1000s Cameron has continued on the same disastrous path as Liebour, borrowing as much as Liebour did, getting deeper into the EU, continued mass immigration, coupled with stagnation of wages to a degree not experienced since the war.

        Support the only party that promises to take us out of the EU, vote UKIP!

      • Mynydd

        You forgot doubling the National Debt, failing to balance the books, failing to reduce net migration.

    • Span Ows

      He’s not even Conservative so much less a Tory! But I second Hookie’s comments above/below this. If only the media would tell the public what is actually being done.

    • Pier66

      Southerner please comes up next 8 May 2015 talk about whats will be the score
      but stay with this name not change cause you’ll in trouble please!

      • southerner

        I have no idea what you are talking about.

        • Pier66

          dosen’t matter! keep calm and carry on vote for TORY

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          A new comment was posted on Spectator Blogs

          I have no idea what you are talking about.
          4:26 a.m., Friday Aug. 1

          Reply to southerner

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  • Alex Bolton

    How can the result of the referendum be 53.6 to 44.6? That only adds up to 98.2

    • dado_trunking

      The remaining 1.8% are Ukip voters disillusioned about the lack of clarity concerning the referendum question. They could not make their mind up in the booth, played nervously with the pencil and in conclusion, to make a long story short, soiled the ballot paper.

      • Colonel Mustard

        Remarkable given that the referendum hasn’t been held yet. You seem to be having trouble with your past, present and future tenses.

        • dado_trunking

          no trouble there – I chose to ‘report it’ as if it had already happened, which of course it will.

  • you_kid

    44.6% is too large a minority to ignore.
    Change will happen in any case …

    • HookesLaw

      No it won’t. What about the majority? Its OK to ignore them is it? What a pathetic useless idiot you are.

      • you_kid

        Useless? I have made you aware of yet another truism.

        I will hold my head up high with shame, stating the undeniable fact from a place otherwise known to be ‘the real world’.

        • HookesLaw

          You cannot put 2 coherent words one after the other.

          • you_kid

            Sure lad, and yet change will happen in any case, whether you *don’t* or *do not* like it. What a shame …

        • paulus

          I dont agree with your lunacy but you made me smile.