Coffee House

Without significant change, Britain is heading towards the EU exit door

30 June 2014

30 June 2014

Anyone interested in the EU debate should read Dominic Cummings’ report on the focus groups he recently conducted for Business for Britain. As well as being a reminder of just how strong the anti-politics mood in the country is, they also sketch out what the challenges for the respective campaigns in any referendum will be.

For Out, it’ll be showing that exit won’t cause economic disaster. The focus groups suggest that if people fear that leaving will cause jobs to be lost in large numbers, then they’ll vote to stay despite their dislike of the EU. While In’s biggest problem is that voters now spontaneously connect the EU with immigration. As Cummings writes, ‘The biggest change in the EU debate since Brown announced in 2003 that we would not join the euro is that people now spontaneously connect the issue of immigration and the EU.’

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Cummings, who as an old Business for Sterling hand has been working on the Europe debate for more than a decade, reports that ‘By far the most important thing these people want back from the EU is power over the combination of immigration, border control, and human rights.’ This makes me wonder if Britain leaving the jurisdiction of European Court of Human Rights, of which membership is currently required for EU states, might end up being part of the renegotiation.

But, perhaps, the most striking insight from these focus groups is that if the renegotiation doesn’t deliver much it will dramatically increase the chance of Britain leaving the EU. Why, because ‘A renegotiation would therefore first raise expectations and then increase disappointment. Trying and failing to reform the EU would make people more likely to vote to leave than they would in the absence of such an attempt because the process will dramatise the legal powers of the EU’.

What is becoming increasingly clear, and what needs to be grasped in Northern European capitals, is that without significant change, Britain is heading towards the EU exit door. The chances of Britain leaving the EU are now higher than they have been at any point since Britain’s EEC membership was confirmed by the 1975 referendum.

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Show comments
  • Horatio

    Best news I’ve had since Gorgon Brown fell down the stairs!

  • The Commentator

    The public link immigration (as in uncontrolled), with Britain’s membership of the EU. Astonishing, who’d have thought it? Are our politicians really that stupid or do they assume the public are particularly stupid? Anyway the only way to ensure Britain’s exit from the EU is to vote UKIP in 2015.

  • Pier66

    dish of the day;

    The FA did not never appreciate never like football genius as Brian Clough, Shankly , Paisley and Glenn Hoddle…with his avantgard football ideas, a winner player deserved a 10 years contract with white paper on everything!
    What done indeed the FA ( in wrong hands since about 70 years? More or less)
    They said Hoddle did not coaching cause he has not football card!!!
    They pick up always the WRONG coach because they like lose(liblab )
    Poor England There are NOT future wrong hands again

  • suzy61

    I found reading Gerard Batten’s ‘The Cost of the EU’ quite informative – even though it is now outdated. Nevertheless, the economic argument must be considered but how do we small people do that? We face the same problem that our cousins in Scotland face at the moment. Smoke and mirrors from both sides. So, in the absence of truly impartial information we should only concern ourselves with what we know to be true; that we will no longer be ruled by anonymous place-men, elected by nobody we know, that we can once again take control of our immigration policies, that we can decide on the regulation of our businesses, that we can fish in our waters and farm our land as best suits us and rise or fall by our own decisions. Some things are priceless – they rise above economics. It is time to say goodbye to the great experiment.

    • AtMyDeskToday

      “we should only concern ourselves with what we know to be true”

      Can’t argue with that.

  • beenzrgud

    The EU won’t change, and so we will likely leave. Upon our leaving the EU will likely collapse. We will forever more be blamed for destroying the EU. I can live with that !

  • Bonkim

    EU – overpaid officials and members – unworkable federation – too diverse and too big.

  • livnletliv

    Why will any mention of reality “dramatise”

  • Conway

    Trying and failing to reform the EU would make people more likely to vote to leave than they would in the absence of such an attempt because the process will dramatise the legal powers of the EU’.” You seem to be implying that we are only just starting to try and reform the EU and failing . We’ve had 41 years’ practice! We’ve made 55 attempts and every single one of them has failed. How much failure are we expected to take? Yet still we are spun the idea that the EU is somehow good for us! A bit of honesty would be nice.

  • Mick Norris

    Come on folks this is not brain science.

    If we can all agree that Germany has benefited most from the Euro-zone economically, then its obvious who has most to lose with its collapse…

    Its not a trick question, just basic logic..

    Germany is playing us and would fold were we to actually have someone like Farage running UK policy re the EU. He would make them crap their lederhosen. Whereas they know Cameron would take the current deal if he was not trying to head of UKIP and his own Eurosceptics.

    Merkel rightfully must think, why give anything to the pretender Cameron….she´ll keep their powder dry for a UK PM that means business.

  • Greenslime

    Everybody form up in three ranks and we can march to the exit. That’ll save us walking!

  • Mick Norris

    The Germans will offer a deal at last moment granting most things as long as it does not look like UK officially left the EU. They just treat Cameron like crap because they know he is an EUphile, and does not want to leave. Had Farage been PM and asked them not to appoint Junker, they would acquiesced. Its all about who is doing the asking.

    Leave all the trade arguments and other irrelevant fluff aside re EU exit, the biggest hole in the EU were Uk to leave would be a morale one.

    Its a Pandora´s box, and the Germans are just too smart not to realise it. Their whole economic future is based on holding this euro denominated export market together.

    Germany did everything asked of it to make sure Greece stayed inside the eurozone. She would do exponentially more to keep the UK looking like it never left the EU.

    Again, we need the right government to get this result.

    • LB

      Germany did everything asked of it to make sure Greece stayed inside the eurozone.


      Slight nit pick. They did everything to stop a Greek default taking out the German banking system

      • Mick Norris

        German and French banks had all already accounted for write-offs of Greek debt long before the extra bailouts. Remember this went on over several years and in fact continues today.

        Problem is had Greece either left or been kicked from Euro, today (in Drachma) after having suffered a miserable year or two, they would be in double digit GDP growth, and their holiday property sector would be seen as best bargain in all of Europe.

        They would make every other Southern Med euro denominated holiday sector look stupidly over priced.

        When the Portuguese, Italian, and Spanish see this…what do they start thinking?

        The Germans know its game over if anyone leaves euro or EU and looks successful afterwards.

        • LB

          No.They haven’t written off the debts. They have taken a hit but it isn’t 100% of Greek debt.

          In other words, its being fudged. Primarily for the French banks to get them off their Greek CDS problems. Hence the haircut isn’t a default bit.

          On your analysis of leaving the Euro, you are correct. They would have been better off, but they would have needed to solve the Greek bank issue and their capital requirements

          Correct, it would domino, It still will.

          And on the Germans and leaving the Euro, you are again correct.

        • AtMyDeskToday

          “The Germans know its game over if anyone leaves euro or EU and looks successful afterwards.”

          That knowledge probably exists in the minds of the entire Brussels bureaucracy. Hence Camoron has a very strong negotiating position if he is smart enough to use it (and wants to).

  • Hamburger

    It has just dawned on the Germans. I cannot think why it took so long.

    • Conway

      They felt sure that Dave was “sound” on the EU and could be relied on to keep us in at all costs.

      • Hamburger

        It does make one wonder how intelligent they all are.

      • Fred Smith

        He is “sound” on the EU, but if he was honest about it, that would be the end of the Conservative Party, so he’s got to put up a bit of a show of not liking it and wanting it reformed, strictly for the home crowd. However, I think even his show of not liking it is becoming wearisome in Brussels, and they’d much prefer a UK PM who could better keep things under control.

        Cameron would have said almost nothing about the EU, had it not been for UKIP. The problem is that losing support to UKIP hasn’t been entirely about the EU, it’s also about other things he’s done.

        He’s also forfeited trust in a big way, so his electoral bait of a referendum after negotiations taking place by some means he can’t explain, for objectives he won’t reveal, isn’t tempting enough.

  • you_kid

    That change is evidently coming in September of 2014.
    Oooops, that’s in two month’s time!

    • the viceroy’s gin

      …what… you and your sockpuppet army are heading to the exit?

  • HookesLaw

    Why do you (or indeed Mr Cummings) not point out that even if out of the EU we still have to deal with it and protect our indiustries from being exported away?

  • davidofkent

    Germany would like us to stay because we are the only other net contributor. France would like us to stay because we are the repository for the people they refuse to grant asylum status to. Several small EU countries would like to keep exporting their unemployed to us (and a couple of big countries would as well). In short, I suggest that we are being remarkably foolish in allowing these historically unstable European countries to keep dumping their problems upon us. I would like us to leave the EU right now, please.

    • HookesLaw

      Of course we and Germany are not the only net contibutors. If we do not have jobs then there are no workers to export. 9 out of 10 new jobs in the last year went to UK citizens.
      You are just another idiot who spouts without knowing what he is talking about. Norway is not in the EU but makes payments to it and takes part in free movement of Labour and is in the Schengen area.

    • beenzrgud

      The vast majority of French people I’ve spoken to on this issue are quite clear in their belief that the faster we leave the better. They have surprisingly little knowledge about what a UK exit would mean for France.

  • Christopher Mooney

    Tories are a bit delusional. Voters would probably vote to stay in, even if their is a referendum

    • davidofkent

      You may be right. Let’s have a referendum now and find out.

    • livnletliv

      You are very delusional.

  • global city

    That is why the economics of leaving the EU need to be analysed and presented right now. The absurd lie that has been allowed to take hold (that of 3.5 million jobs being lost of we leave) needs to be exposed as groundless, as it is this figure that people have accepted and is why ‘job loss’ is even a factor.

    Exactly what a customs union is and how it works, why it stops the UK from being able to negotiate trade deals or why we have to impose the CET etc should be made clear.

    But then, we should get off the jobs issue and into the serious ones, like loss of control, the destruction of Common Law and sovereignty. Too many voters are still not informed well enough about the dangers of the EU and so could be easily scared with propaganda to voting for us to remain inside the ever closer union.

    • HookesLaw

      Do you really think the car industry would be safe if we leave the EU completely? It would probably mean a total end to investment in our car industry for starters. Over a period of time we would see it wither and die. Why should car workers and associated indiustries and theor families take that risk?

      As the report says the EU is just a dog whistle, a substitute, for crude racism.

      • global city

        If you think about it, the security of these plants are safe. They locate here for a number of reasons.

        really, just think. Most plants in the UK serve the international market, not just the EU. Into all of those markets they must pay the reciprocal tariff, charged beasue we have to charge the CET on imports from that country…yes?

        In the future, without ANY sort of trade deal, we would just be facing the same situation with exporting cars to the EU. All sorts of instruments could be used to make sure that the tariff was not a burden on consumers, who after all are the ones making buying choices. When was the last time that you made a purchase choice based on EU CET?…..exactly!

        The irony in this argument is that all of our plants are thriving. JLA, Nissan, etc, all who serve global markets. The only plant that has suffered, to the extent of laying off 600 staff is the Honda plant in Swindon which servers,,……, the EU market.

        Of course, there is always the basic fact that we import more cars from the continent than we export there… so the point that BMW and Volkswagon would not allow the EU to indulge in a trade war or any sort of shenanigans at all is probably the truest of all those factors at play with regards to some sort of EU boycott (which there would have to be if the europhile’s horror stories were to have any merit at all(

        The job loss meme is absurd…always has been. Basically they are lies and scares.

        • HookesLaw

          The EU is an international market. If you ‘think about it’ you are putting a key industry at risk.
          Minis and LandRovers are already being built abroad. We make engines and gear boxes which would be easy to shift.
          Honda Swindon production in 2012 was double 2011 levels, at 183,000 units, of which 60% was exported to 60 markets worldwide. The next Jazz will not be built in Swindon.

          Whichever way you look at it if we leave the single market we risk a huge loss in the years that follow.
          It would be absurd to pretend that if we left the EU we would suddenly adopt different standards for our home grown industrial products.

          • global city

            Why? You do not make the case for the catastrophic desertion of all of this industry, merely for not being in the Single Market. You have failed to provide evidence to back up your assertion that it is only here in the first place because of the EU. you describe these things as though conforming to regulations is some sort of national effort, but if the UK left the EU and we started applying different ones to our own market, those companies who traded with EU areas would just conform to their regs, as they do when selling to the states or Japan.

            The regulation point really is a marginal one and it is a shame that it has such traction with soft people.

            Your last point is a perfect illustration of the dumb headedness of these claims. Industrial standards would, one again begin to evolve along optimal lines for our industry. The bad stuff would eventually go and new ones added over time. The point is that they would be made for UK business and would be easily reversible if shown to be ineffective or flawed. We can not do that now.

            We had this lawyers debate a few months ago and you conceded these points. The only point of any significance, should we leave the EU tomorrow is would we impose tariffs on each others goods.

            Also. Do you not remember having to concede that the ‘economics’ is a sideline when the real issue of our membership is the destruction of democratic accountability, our system of making law and living under it as well as the core value of national sovereignty?

            Have you forgotten?

            • livnletliv

              No, but he would like everyone else to forget, so he can spit on the graves of 2million British soldiers. Bet he is a poor little immigrant .

              • global city

                This why I have suggested that the ‘outers’ make a concerted effort to demolish the ‘lost jobs’ part of the Europhile’s case right now. Not only will this ease the minds of many sceptics who have fallen for the false stats and statements, but it would force them out onto territory where they would have to make an honest case for staying in the political union with all of the consequences for democracy and accountability, etc.

                If the ‘economic case’ is still able to be pushed (because the outers had failed to kill it) on the eve of any referendum then it could well be lost.

          • livnletliv

            So you would put a job before country, you are pathetic.

            • Damaris Tighe

              You – or I – might not but the majority of voters will. And if you have a young family to provide for, who could blame them? The economic argument has to be answered.

      • LB

        All the parties have gone green. Ban petrol cars. Follow it through and ask if they are banned, why do we need factories to make them.,

        Or perhaps electric cars. The gateway drug of choice for petrol heads.

      • livnletliv

        Why did millions of soldiers take the risk of their arms and legs blowing off. Why do you presume that anyone not agreeing with you is because of racism? Strange, it could only be your self projection. You are obviously one of the most racist people on the face of the earth.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          …that’s true of most of the socialist nutters, like that one.

  • BigAl

    Miliband is the one most likely to win so no referendum……

    • the viceroy’s gin

      …unless the electorate wisely chooses not to split the UKIP vote.

  • RavenRandom

    And why not leave? It’s difficult to say what the EU has done for us as a nation. It’s clear that our neighbours paranoid group hug is to prevent them invading each other. It’s not obvious what our upside is.
    Free trade with all and sundry should be our aim.

    • LB

      Why would they invade a member of NATO with Nukes?

      Sorry, but its NATO not the EU that has maintained the peace.

      If you think that is going to be broken, name the country and whom they will invade.

  • White Wednesday

    An easy task for your readers: Google ‘Flexcit plan’

    A less easy but necessary task: Read the Flexcit plan

  • Mike Oddpiece

    Before the UKIP wargs descend upon the comments: Only by voting Conservative next year do you increase the chance of any referendum being held on the UK’s EU membership.

    • LB

      Disagree. Just vote for UK or make sure your Con MP signs his house over if there is no referenda. Will they (MPs) trust Cameron to deliver?

      • livnletliv

        Con MPs have even said this week that Cameron is planning on being able to dodge any referendum.

    • Redrose82

      Couldn’t agree more. Anyone thinking by voting UKIP they will be taking a step towards freedom from the shackles of the EU is living in cloud cuckoo land.

    • saffrin

      May 2015 is the EU referendum.
      Voting UKIP means out.
      Cameron’s way will take several terms of him winning general elections and that is never going to happen.

    • Denis_Cooper

      Vote Tory get betrayal.

      • Donafugata

        Exactly, instead of a referendum we got gay marriage.

        • HookesLaw

          The pair of you exhibit just what you stand for – ignorance and bigotry.
          You are making up things to give justify you putting in a Labour govt. You say you want a referendum and then when you get one you make up pathetic excuses for not believing it.

          There was no referendum pledge in the 2010 Tory manifesto. The 2009 promise was quite clear – and Lisbon had been ratified by 2010.

          • LB

            Right or wrong on the moral issue about gay marriage, it was still undemocratic in the way it was imposed.

            My personal view, the state should get out of the marriage business. That solves the problems.

          • livnletliv

            Getting desperate now, do you really expect anyone to believe Cameron? He is just as bad as Miliband and Clegg. CP members, even Cameron was too ashamed to mention his CP membership for 3 years. Why would anyone vote for Common Purpose.

      • Damaris Tighe

        Now here is the problem. I have no faith in the Tories but UKIP will not form the next government. If I & others vote UKIP will we not simply make possible a Labour victory? And if that happens there will definitely be no referendum. So do I vote for the party (UKIP) that I support or the party most likely to be in a position to hold the referendum (Tories)?

        • Suzy61

          I see the dilemma Damaris. For me, I am lucky enough to live in a constituency where a recent by-election gave Labour the lead but UKIP surged into second place – leaving the Tories a distant third. However, I would have to consider my tactics if voting UKIP gave Labour the advantage. For this election I think we have to look at the bigger picture (referendum) but hopefully in the next election we will have the luxury of voting for the party we truly support.

          • Damaris Tighe

            I just hope the next election isn’t too late.

    • Donafugata

      Dave needs to realise that by giving a referendum before May he stands a much better chance of staying in no.10.
      He’s proved that he can’t be trusted so he will have to trust us.

    • Conway

      Only by voting Conservative next year do you enable Dave to finally wriggle out of his pretend commitment to a referendum and keep us in the EU. By doing so you will have split the UKIP vote which really would deal with the EU problem since it’s the only party to be consistent in its message (remember 2011 when Dave put a 3 line whip on his party to vote against a referendum?).

    • Fred Smith

      That would be tending to destroy the one significant party which has a definite EU-withdrawalist agenda, to fall for more sleight-of-hand from the debased Conservatives. Rewarding bad behaviour.

      Unless they thought the fix was in for an in vote, and with the BBC etc producing wall-to-wall propaganda that’s highly likely, there’d be no referendum. It’s a poisoned chalice.

  • Hysteria

    “The chances of Britain leaving the EU are now higher than they have been at any point since Britain’s EEC membership was confirmed by the 1975 referendum”


    • LB


      The question then is will the EU move enough? I doubt it. A UK exit also causes big problems for the EU. You have to ask, who could also leave?

      The Greeks are one. They could say, bugger off, you stitched us up along with the previous governments. We’re out, or even more likely, we’re not paying the debts. Causes major problems in Germany.

      • mightymark

        As one constantly has to remind one’s left wing friends, refusing to pay a country’s debts “Causes major problems” for the country the next time they want to borrow.

        • LB


          However, even more importantly, the state refusing to pay its debts, such as pensions, in full, screws the poor and your left wing friends who are in the public sector.

          So what’s the state of play?

          7.1 trillion pension debts, 1.3 trillion borrowing, … need I go on? All unfunded. No assets owned to pay them. No capital, just debts. It’s not capitalism without capital, its socialism.

          • HookesLaw

            We do not have 7 billion pension debts. The state pays pensions. It pays them from the money flowing in, and according to actuarial rules keeps a reserve to cover immediate contingencies.
            Endlessly repeating your rubbish does not make it any more true.

            • you_kid

              A punter with a fleabrain like yourself does not know what ‘unfunded’ means?

              A sovereign wealth fund is funded.
              Future tax intake is not.

              • LB

                Correct. Hookeslaw is of the slave owner mentality. The state owns the labour of the poor. That it also runs a breeding book gives the game away too.

                However, notice one additional thing. If the state owns the labours of the serfs, it also is on the hook for their maintenance. So is the average British peasant an asset or a liability?

                The deficit tells you. They aren’t assets, they are liabilities.

                Now look at the debt payments.


                £149.6 bn on the pensions debts
                £52 bn on interest on Gilts

                We’re already up to 33% of taxes going on the debts.

                Demographics will see the first escalate like mad.
                The second is more complex. Luckily a lot of UK debt is now bought by the state. They can wipe that out.The rest is more problematic. It’s not the recent low interest rate stuff. That’s the QE above. The rest is longer term. So it depends on rolling it over a cheap rates.

            • The Commentator

              Think you’ll find “the money flowing in” as in £14 million per hour, is UK borrowing on the bond markets. All that debt has be serviced, around £40 billion a year at the moment and one day the capital sum has to be paid back. Which like Greece we won’t be able to do, so like Greece we will go bust. No more state pension no more NHS no more BBC and so on…

        • davidofkent

          Indeed. Look no further than our dearest friend Argentina.

      • goatmince

        ‘the Greeks are one’ – what a ridiculous assertion.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          Heh. It’s amusing that you’ve got two of your sockpuppets responding to this guy. Your sockpuppet army certainly has it covered, eh laddie?

    • goatmince

      Curious, I repeat a comment made elsewhere an hour ago:

      Clearly this discussion about Brexit is driven by hysteria. There can be no other word for it. No other discourse was so *not* based on facts, it’s untrue. Just one fact now:

      ‘the UK recently overtook France and the US to become Germany’s single largest trading partner.’

      Is that an argument in favour of a strong British position? Of course not!
      It clarifies beyond doubt that we in fact IMPORT a record number of products and services now. It clarifies also that if we were to lose our membership in the EU, Britain’s main export component which is the export of EU-related financial services from the City would cease in an instant. It would clarify that our trade balance would suffer even more.
      Do we want, never mind can we afford to do that?

      • RavenRandom

        Don’t be hysterical. Of course we could continue to trade with the EU, it’s in the interest of all to trade. I imagine we would negotiate the same sort of free trade other non-EU European countries have.

        • rtj1211

          It’s not hysterical if the EU says that Eurobonds and Euro-derivatives can only be traded within the Euro Zone, is it??

          • the viceroy’s gin

            It’s hysterical if it comes out of one of you socialist nutters’ mouths, generally speakiing.

      • saffrin

        We can’t afford not to. The more Brussels pushes east the poorer western europe becomes.
        Cheap labour flooding west, western businesses flooding east to escape EU regs and taxes

      • LB

        You don’t realise history.

        How do you explain the Eurobond market?

        • goatmince

          For those unfamiliar with the detail:
          “A Eurobond is an international bond that is denominated in a currency not native to the country where it is issued. Also called external bond; “external bonds which, strictly, are neither Eurobonds nor foreign bonds would also include: foreign currency denominated domestic bonds. . .”[2] It can be categorised according to the currency in which it is issued. London is one of the centers of the Eurobond market.”
          (source: wikipedia)

          And further:
          ” Frankfurt lists first renminbi bond
          Tuesday 13 May 2014
          Germany’s KfW development bank listed a renminbi-denominated bond on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange today, the first to be listed by the German bourse.”

          But we know you already know that.

      • LB

        There are 400,000 welfare claimants in the UK who are migrants. Does the EU want them back and their dependents? 6,000 Ryan air flights, 30 a day, 200 days.

        If the EU plays silly buggers, then the EU gets to solve a rather large problem, plus it gets the blame for it.

        • goatmince

          Are there? What is your data source? What benefits are these? I believe much more than 400k migrants claim child benefits which they are of course entitled to as they pay tax here.

          • HookesLaw

            To complex even for a simple nutjob peabrain to comprehend.

            • the viceroy’s gin

              …which is likely the reason you socialist nutters are struggling with it.

          • livnletliv

            No, they pay no tax at all and claim top ups, or pay a low tax to their home country continuously as long as they visit their home country for 1 day every 6months. Plus send child benefit home, which the British who pay for it, can not claim unless they live in the same household, never mind country.

            • goatmince

              You appear to know all about the detail. Now go and fix your mistakes. It appears to me that the first tier in Europe is entirely oblivious to the fact that the second tier in Europe is no longer willing to support the third.

    • Andy

      Glorious news. We ought to hold a service of Thanksgiving at the Abbey.

    • HookesLaw

      You are stupid. So are your upticks.
      We can leave the EU and join the EEA – we would have to (and labour certainly would as a minimum) to protect our industry by staying in the single market. But that would in effect mean little different – just look a t Norway.
      Just walking out leaves us open to all sorts of problems in trying to get back some sort of trade deal. We would be in a weak position to negotiate and probably every deal would demand a membership of Schengen as a requirement.

      The real story is why both pro and anti do not want to discuss this.

      • LB

        Why’s a weak position?

        Hmm lets see. Poland, if you don’t play ball we will start by shipping back all Polish welfare claimants. The productive ones get to stay.

        Germany? Do you want a mass a Poles coming over the border?

        The UK’s hand is strong.

        Or perhaps the EU goes against the WTO and imposes tarrifs. Since the UK imports more from the EU than vice versa, the damage to the EU is higher. Hurts both sides, so its a stupid move, and the is desperate for growth. After all, the Eurozone sticking plaster is a 15% raid on EU bank accounts. See the IMF and Laguarde for that scam.

      • livnletliv

        Why not take advantage of the “free” travel and live in some pro EU country.

    • DaveTheRave


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