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Tories set to take a dozen seats from Lib Dems in 2015

19 June 2014

6:03 PM

19 June 2014

6:03 PM

How many seats will the Conservatives take from the Lib Dems at the next election? According to Lord Ashcroft’s latest polling, a dozen or so Tory-Lib Dem marginals look set to change hands. Surveying 17,000 voters in 17 seats*, Ashcroft has found the Lib Dems’ share has dropped by 15 per cent (compared to eight per cent for the Conservatives) with an overall swing of 3.5 per cent to the Tories. If this swing were replicated across the country, this would hand David Cameron another 15 seats in 2015.

However, Ashcroft’s research suggests there isn’t a universal swing. For example in Newton Abbot, the polling suggests a nine per cent swing but in Wells, it was three per cent. Out the 17 seats Ashcroft polled, six of the Lib Dems would change hands to the Tories. As you can see from the chart below, the Tory lead and swing in these seats differs significantly: 

[Alt-Text]


The polling also suggests that some Tory/Lib Dem marginals like Oxford West & Abingdon — which the Tories won by just 176 votes in 2010 — will remain safe.

What about the Ukip threat? In all of the seventeen seats, Ukip are on at least ten per cent of the vote share. In Camborne & Redruth, they are pegged at 26 per cent. This may be due to their operation on the ground, which is making an impact with voters. When asked which of the parties they’d heard from in the last few weeks, 46 per cent said they’d had contact with Ukip, compared to 50 per cent from the Lib Dems, who are well known for solid location operations:

The marginal voters are vaguely enthusiastic about the Prime Minister. Overall, a third of the voters are satisified with David Cameron as PM while another third are dissatisfied but would prefer him to Ed Miliband. And at the next election, 36 per cent would like a Conservative majority, compared to 16 per cent who want another Tory-Lib Dem coalition. 

The polling results are heartening for the Tories — half of the seats on their 40+40 target list are Lib Dem targets. However, the opinion polls continue to suggest an overall swing towards Labour next year. Ashcroft has promised to return to the Conservative-Labour battleground soon, so we’ll see if there’s still any good news for the Tories then.

*Ashcroft polled the following seats (colours are who who hold): Watford, Camborne & Redruth, Oxford West and Abingdon, Truro & Falmouth, Newton Abbot, Harrogate & K’borough, Solihull, Mid Dorset & N. Poole, Wells, St Austell & Newquay, Somerton & FromeSutton & CheamSt Ives, ChippenhamCheadleNorth Cornwall and Eastleigh

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Show comments
  • Pier66

    this blog is full of people that said to vote Ukip INDEED for me they vote lib lab….what silly game…try find a job this is a Conservative Old Mag….why you come here to waste your time and OUR TIME?
    YNWA AND TORY ALL THE WAY

  • eclair

    Does it say ‘tweet’ under the picture for a reason…..

  • Kennybhoy

    Can I have the deid birdy picture for pc wallpaper…? :-)

  • CraigStrachan

    Not enough.

  • Smithersjones2013

    Of course the truth of the matter is these results are nowhere near good enough to return a Tory government.

  • the viceroy’s gin

    Who are these “Lib Dumbs” and “tories” his lordship is making such a big fuss over?

    Wait… I do perhaps vaguely remember them … they may have appeared in the recent EP elections, finishing down and also-ran, somewhere .

  • monty61

    Love the graphic :)

  • you_kid

    It cannot be repeated too often
    Vote for the UKIP to beat Labour.
    We must at least try.

    • Rallan

      I’m so glad you feel that way, because it will be repeated often. Because despite the lies and abuse there are a lot of enthusiastic UKIP supporters already out there, and many more ready come forward as public support gives them confidence. Millions of people will vote UKIP in 2015. Vote UKIP to beat the LibLabCon!

      Tee hee.

  • Pepperless

    Don’t count your chickens before they hatch

  • Pier66

    Telema

    • Rossspeak

      Tele’s posts are so nuanced and subtle that I had been wondering which side of the political divide he favoured – thanks for putting me straight.

      • Pier66

        so nuanced and subtle that…he can ONLY be a labour for me
        try to make confusion pretend to move some voters in UKIP…
        but my dear you LOST AS EVER…
        ynwa and tory all the way

        • Rossspeak

          Sorry – I was trying a little Irony.

          • Pier66

            No, no I like very much, I really appreciate, keep going please,
            are you agree with me about Tele’s?

            • Rossspeak

              I think if you read these posts regularly that the overall weight of considered opinion is that Telemachus is not only somewhat further to the left than Marx – and several socialist sandwiches short of a picnic.
              Fair comment – fellow Posters??

  • Denis_Cooper

    So the Tories are set to win a dozen seats from the LibDems.

    Any idea how many seats Labour may win from the LibDems?

    Because, you see, if the Tories won a dozen seats from the LibDems, but Labour also won a dozen seats from the LibDems, then the Tories wouldn’t have gained anything vis-a-vis Labour, would they?

    • HookesLaw

      The LDs have 10 seats in England where they are challenged by Labour and about abother 10 in Scotland where they are challenged by labour or SNP.

      • Denis_Cooper

        There you go then.

        Of course the collapse of the LibDems will help Labour much more than it will help the Tories, that’s obvious from the left hand side of the charts here:

        http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls.html

        • Rallan

          Maybe. But the Labour Party is a complete clusterf*ck with no credibility and a ridiculous tw@t for a leader. I think that’ll have an electoral impact too.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            They just finished second in the EP elections, and their credibility and ridiculousness is likely matched by those who finished behind them.

            • Wessex Man

              Let’s not forget the Party that finished top, my Party UKip and now I’ve said that on will come the stooges Hooky babe and tele to venrt their childish fury.

              • Pier66

                yes also my party win election

          • Smithersjones2013

            Yeah but that won’t stop the paupers, vagrants and liberal elitist parasites who live in their urban ghettos returning more Labour MP’s than the rest of the country will return Tories

          • GnosticBrian

            You are not tempted by the offer of a free Owl?

            • Rallan

              No. I want a Yosemite Owl but they are only going to give me a Tawny Owl. It’s an infringement of my human rights and probably racist too.

          • Pier66

            Rallan, what do you said?
            we got best man in the country look the face the brain the background, next election is going to get 55%….
            so after birmingham also manchester will be the same league!
            YNWA AND TORY IN POWER

      • Pier66

        SCOTLAND are going to vote yes? or No?
        maybe both of them ahahaha

  • JB_1966

    Good. It’ll be great to see fewer of those awful people in parliament.

    • Wessex Man

      To be replaced by just as awlful people already there VOTE UKIP!

      • telemachus

        Yes indeed vote Ukip
        On current projections those attracted to the racist agenda will deliver 43 Tory marginals to Labour

        • Rallan

          The current absolutely all-important really accurate projections? The terrible awful dreadful wicked racist agenda? Oh God! When you make such a compelling argument I realise the error of my ways!

          I’m so grateful that you, a ludicrous internet troll with much too much time on his hands, were there to explain it all to me. Well done, you mighty keyboard warrior!

        • Adam Carter

          Hello again,tele.
          I see you are back with your unsubstantiated allegations that UKIP is a racist party.
          I have challenged you before to list the racist policies of UKIP and you have failed to do so, yet still you persist in the smear.
          You avoid discussion of policy and you just continue with your lies.
          Why are you not ashamed of your disgraceful lying behaviour and comments?

          • telemachus

            I really cannot see your problem
            Farage talks about origin of next door neighbours
            Farage authorised billboards about immigrants on the peripheries of large Asian Populations
            What would you call that?

            • MrsDBliss

              I’m sorry the only racist appears to be you. Immigrants can be any colour, including white eg Polish, Romanians etc. British can also be any colour. Uncontrolled immigration affects British Asian jobs as any white working jobs. Where the immigration comes from also ensures it’s predominantly white as it’s from Europe, the only controls are on the rest of the world hence Cameron’s statements about Indian students.
              Farage was asked about the various nationalities of fictional next door neighbours; that would make the interviewer racist as it was him to determined the question and it’s parameters. Remember you haven’t stated why what he said was racist, just the fact he’s talked about nationalities.

              • telemachus

                I will tell you why Farage is racist
                It is because it procures votes at the base level
                That is why

                • Wessex Man

                  MrsDBliss is spot on about you you slimy liar, taking vast swathes of votes from your party’s strongholds will tell in the GE will give the answer to your lies!

                • telemachus

                  I am sorry for your forthcoming disappointment in May 2015

                • Pier66

                  yes will be someone really in great disappointment…
                  we’ll see..but have a game if the TORY win next GE 2015
                  you should disappear from Spectator blogs…ok?

                • telemachus

                  There would be more need for Telemachus than ever

                • helicoil

                  That’s the new definition of racism is it? Glad you let us in on that.
                  If you’re going to adopt fictional characters as your moniker then “Hodor” would be more suitable.

                • telemachus

                  You mean Walder
                  Described as having a friendly disposition possessing great size and strength
                  Yes, about right

                • helicoil

                  No, I mean Hodor.

                • telemachus

                  Same
                  I am well read
                  Not only Tempest but A Song of Ice and Fire
                  Not only Winter’s tale but The Winds of Winter

                • Rossspeak

                  I am not necessarily a Farage fan – but to accuse him of racism as it ” procures votes at the base level” is both disingenuous and insulting.
                  The socialist “politics of envy” also attract huge numbers of Labour votes ” at the base level” – but thats OK then is it Tele?

            • Wessex Man

              You pathetic slimy liar, can you explain why Nine East End Asian Labour Councillors resigned en bloc citing racism directed against them by their own colleagues in the Labour Party this year? or the Bristol Councillor cautioned for calling her colleague a ‘Choc ***’?

              If you can give any similar instances of such a thing happening in UKip do so you liar.

              • telemachus

                But Wessex
                It is not institutionalised at the top

                • Wessex Man

                  Still not going to give a straight answer then you slimy lying person.

            • MirthaTidville

              I would actually call them facts….and I can see your problem Telemachus..All too clear in fact old son

              • telemachus

                Indeed
                In fact
                And in intent

              • The_Missing_Think

                Yep, I agree, the fact is, you and Tele***** are both pro minority English England, by your own written hand… cough… are you Welsh Mirtha Tidville?

                Therefore, you are both illegal anti-white race abusers. (not the sandpit ‘racist’, it’s an adult subject matter).
                _____

                “This can be black or white”

                http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2010/15/notes/division/3/2/1/6/3

                Section 9. Explanatory notes. (2010 Equalities Act).
                _____

                I repeat, illegal anti-white race abusers.

                • Wessex Man

                  Do you feel better after that little rant, can you now say what you really think?

                • The_Missing_Think

                  To you, ‘no’, because it would get deleted.

                  But I can say, observation of the law, is a rant is it?

                • MirthaTidville

                  Can anyone translate what this socialist nutter is on about

                • The_Missing_Think

                  It appears we my have a crossed-wire, it’s hard to tell, given your ambiguously ill defined comment, and the Disqus sprawl tangle.

                  But – if you’re not supporting Telemachus, you may consider yourself excused from my criticism, but please try harder to be more precise in the future.
                  _____

                  (Nice to ‘right-winger’ Wessex Man, leaping to the defence of his hard Left extremist chum Telemachus, as most of Team Fáragêo would do, come the crunch).

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