Coffee House

Tories hold Newark with a 7,000 majority

6 June 2014

3:53 AM

6 June 2014

3:53 AM

The Tories have held Newark with a comfortable majority of 7,000 plus. The party will be relieved to have won and delighted with the size of their majority over Ukip which was far larger than the 2,500 that Nigel Farage had been predicting earlier in the night.

There will be relief in Downing Street and CCHQ that they have sidestepped this banana skin. Considering that the by-election was a result of the disgrace of the previous Tory MP Patrick Mercer and took place only 11 days after Ukip had topped the poll in the European Elections, it had the potential to be a disaster for the Tories that could have sent the party into a Ukip-induced panic. But victory, and especially by this margin, will ensure that the Tory party goes into the summer in relatively calm and united fashion.

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For Labour, there must be disappointment at a third place finish. If Labour was on course for a comfortable general election win, it would have come within striking distance of taking this seat. Instead, its share of the vote in Newark has actually declined—down from 22% at the general election to 18%.

But I suspect that this bad result for Labour will be obscured by another dismal Lib Dem performance. The Lib Dems came sixth behind both the Greens and a local hospital party and lost their deposit, the ninth time that this has happened since 2010. The BBC says that this was the worst ever Lib Dem by-election performance in mainland Britain. Now, the Liberal Democrat leadership will say that, ultimately, what matters is their vote in the seats that they hold. But Newark is another reminder of how outside of their redoubts, their vote has collapsed almost entirely.

If Ukip had won this by-election, the party would have gone into the summer with the big mo. It’d have topped the poll in a nationwide vote and gained its first MP. But in the end, Ukip didn’t even match its performance in the Eastleigh by-election. With the Tories holding on in Newark, there is now a circuit break on the Ukip surge.

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Show comments
  • Delta Singh

    Sir

    Why did my ‘tribe’ vote UKIP?

    First of all there are different layers in the ‘tribe’: working-class, middle-class, Asian, white, young, old, urban and rural (living).

    It was the ‘educated’ (particulary those who have studied law) that persuaded us that the EU is an undemocratic rising imperial power – they did this in the same way that Canadian Conservatives (note the ‘c’ in the upper case) use Canadian Asians to persuade Canadnian Asians to vote Conservative (psychological defences are diminshed when Asians speak to Asians).

    The working-class part of the ‘tribe’ set forth their complaints: that Labour’s open door immigration strategem (to invite future Labour supporters) had worked against their families economic (first) and social (second) advancement: money permits social integration.

    When we inquired about the specific details of the problems, we were told the same issues as the white working-class express: their children’s education being frustated (interpreters for the other children who speak 19 languages); delays at the GP’s surgery; increase in anti-social behaviour; drunkeness; harassment of wives and sisters on the street corners; thefts; failing to queue correctly at the bus stop (apparently foreigners do not form a physical queue – but they remember who was at the bus stop before them and intercept the queue (as the bus arrives) at the point where they believe they arrived. This then raises tensions amongst those who formed an orderly queue!).

    When the ‘tribe’ was asked the question: don’t you, as the grandsons and daughters of immigrants, feel morally guilty for being ‘anti-immigrant’? Back came the reply: ‘it is over-crowded’. In other words Britain is one quarter the size of France and yet its population is nearing that of France – urban stress.

    By the way – UKIP’s policy to permit at least one grammar school in each city is wildly popular with (Hindu and Sikh) Asians. When pressed upon this issue they all said that they wanted ’19th century’ style teachers – and segregation of the sexes.

    In other words, Boys schools and Girls schools and Boys entrances and Girls entrances. I reckon that’s lower ‘c’ conservatism.

  • https://belasariust.wordpress.com/ solly gratia

    UKIP this, UKIP that. If it was simply a matter of public opinion, floating out in the stratosphere, fine. but there are local UKIP parties on the ground, building grass-roots support. Every numpty comment from the legacy parties, every bad boy or girl caught out just increases the disdain the general public have, and leaves them open to considering UKIP. If the Legacies want to do something, here’s a list:

    Clean up your act
    Listen to the people and represent them
    Stop imposing forms of behaviour and speech and ‘acceptable’ ideas of the pressminster elite on us.

    There you go, happy electioneering.

  • global city

    Nobody, except for tories care what happens to the tory vote in the GE

  • Denis_Cooper

    This by-election teaches one important lesson and raises one important
    question.

    The lesson: UKIP’s success in the EU Parliament elections was not a flash in
    the pan; in a UK parliamentary by-election with a much higher turnout than on
    May 22nd UKIP got 26% of the votes, compared to 32% in the same area and 33%
    across the East Midlands for the EU Parliament elections; and at present that
    support seems pretty solid, given that an extraordinarily intensive Tory
    campaign in the constituency and an unremitting and totally unscrupulous
    anti-UKIP campaign across the mass media, both left and right leaning media
    outlets, succeeded in achieving only a slight erosion of support for UKIP from
    28% to 26%.

    The question: having already seen a major realignment in British politics
    with the collapse of the LibDems and the consolidation of almost all of the
    anti-Tory vote on Labour, are we now seeing the start of a second realignment in
    which the three old pro-EU parties combine to encourage tactical voting by their
    supporters to prevent anti-EU UKIP winning any seats in the Commons? Because the evidence is that about a third of those who were initially inclined to vote
    Labour in this by-election were induced to vote Tory instead just to be sure of
    stopping UKIP.

  • Aberrant_Apostrophe

    From the photograph it looks like the Tory PR machine has let Jendrick speak in public for the first time.

  • revkevblue

    Thank you Spectator for removing my comment, it is so nice to know that freedom of speech is not alive and well with you.

  • revkevblue

    Dear James Forsyth,
    Is this what you call a true unbiased account of what happened in Newark?
    If I was a LibLabCon MP sitting in a marginal seat being contested by UKIP in the next GE, I would be very, very afraid.
    The Cons have lost 8.82% of their support in what was a solid safe seat, their majority has nearly been halved.
    The Labs have lost 4.65% of their support.
    The Libs have lost an amazing 17.41% of their support, and also lost their deposit to boot.
    UKIP on the other hand, have gained an amazing 22.09% of more support, proving that the swing to UKIP is still growing,
    Not bad for a political party that has no voice in Westminster, and no public funds.
    As for theTory party going into the summer in relatively calm, and united fashion, I doubt that very much, as their rose tinted Westminster glasses must be getting very hard to see through
    The march of the UKIP peoples army, is still gaining momentum as proved by the Newark results, and that is what an honest reporter, should have informed his readers, and upset the calm of that sack of cats you call united MP’s
    With this piece of spin your credibility as an unbiased reporter of the political facts James Forsyth, has been called into serious question, as far as I am concerned, I will never take what you write about politics at face value again.

    • Mynydd

      What a load of spin, the swing UKIP is still growing, this is a lie, in the previous by-election UKIP share of the vote was 29% yesterday it was 26% meaning it is going down. Them what about the 33% in the EU election. UKIP have public funds from the EU.

      • revkevblue

        I was under the impression that we were talking about Newark and its Voting trend.
        You are trying to deny the facts of what happened in Newark by comparing Apples with pears.
        As for the rant about public funds from the EU for the European election! There you go again. What has a local election campaign got to do with the past European campaign?
        Bless you, as a part of the LibLabCon you must be hurting.
        Try voting UKIP, it will be good for your Karma, and possibly your blood pressure, because it is good to believe in something that is wholesome and honest and is not riddled with political corruption.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        As mentioned, that’s a statistically insignificant result. No change, basically. You may not have sufficient grasp of mathematics to understand that.

  • global city

    I wonder what constituency the Tories are planning to put ALL of their resources into, send all of their MP’s repeatedly to, bus in thousands of their ‘team’ at the next election.

    What will happen in the other 649 when they only cover one?

    • the viceroy’s gin

      …Dave’s head will be mounted on a spike, obviously.

  • Athelwulf

    It was only a week or so ago on Channel 4 News that the local Newark Conservative Party chairman predicted a majority of 10,000 in the by-election. And that his interviewer could hit him over the head with an election leaflet if his candidate got less. The majority was actually 7,403 on a 52.79% turnout

  • RichardBaranov

    I find it interesting that both the mainstream politicians and the MSM are hailing Newark as a triumph for the Tories. But, trolls not withstanding, letters to the papers indicate that the people see quite clearly that the result is a disaster for the Tories. It shows how much of a disconnect there is between the people and the establishment.
    I do believe that the MSM and Liblabcon are so deeply in denial they truly believe what they say. That’s why there seems to be a touch of hysteria to what they declare as fact, they truly don’t comprehend what is going on.

    • E Roberts

      It was a great triumph for the Tories.

      9 days ago you wrote: “I wonder how they will explain away a UKIP win in Newark.” I replied they won’t win (or get 5 MPs at the next GE, as you also predicted).

      Are you perhaps the one in denial, spinning the result your way?

      • RichardBaranov

        And why would you take a theoretical remark by me as if I was making a real prediction? It illustrates how dishonest you people are. For you a speculation turns into fact. Escorting a woman into an hotel turns into a one night stand. Because a UKIP member says something racist, all UKIP members are racist, and it goes on. Quite incapable of mounting a valid argument you use spin, deceit, and dishonesty because you have no real point to put across. Just the rather sick attitude that if you throw mud it will stick. Well, sorry, but it isn’t working. You and your sort may think people are fools but they are not. People see what the mainstream is about, a cess pit of privilege that is in desperate need of cleaning out.

        • E Roberts

          “You people”? Who do you think I – or anyone who disagrees with you – am/are?

          I assume you are aware of the extreme irony of tarring your opponents with such a large brush when that is the substance of your complaint against these “people”? Perhaps not.

          • RichardBaranov

            Well, I know what you are. A person who misrepresents fact because you have no valid argument to make. You do seem to be of that class comprising most of the MSM and the spin doctors of Liblabcon incapable of truth you misrepresent because you have no valid argument to make. So, instead, when you are called on it, you whine.

            • E Roberts

              I’m not whining. And you don’t know who I am.

              All I did – in the context of a discussion over whether this had been a good result for UKIP or not – was call you on your prediction. The fact I was proved right is interesting because it supports my view that UKIP will have only a passing influence on UK politics, largely by nudging the two big parties to make some adjustments on immigration policy; it will not be in government and it will probably not win even one MP next year.

              That’s what happened in our exchange. Your response (typical of UKIPites) is to make unfounded ad hominem attacks.

              • wudyermucuss

                make some adjustments on immigration policy –
                The large majority want it drastically reduced or stopped.

                • E Roberts

                  You may be right, which is why we’re seeing policy shifts from both those parties on that issue. Once that’s done, the reasons for voting UKIP decrease dramatically.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  What policy shifts are “we” seeing?

                  Or were you referencing bubble blather?

                • E Roberts

                  Maybe it is bubble blather; time will tell. But both those parties are making big noises about immigration.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Again, time has already spoken, lad. It’s bubble blather, and you seem now to agree that there has been no “policy shifts”. And bubble blather and “big noises” mean absolutely nothing. They’ll only result in Dave’s head being mounted on a spike, as scheduled next May. .

                • E Roberts

                  Are you drunk on the gin?

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …are you a whiny Camerloon?

                • E Roberts

                  No but I am smiling; you’re most entertaining with your faux-paternalism, head-on-spike fixation and tendency to interpret ‘maybe’ as ‘absolutely’.

                  I thought you might avail yourself of the excuse of inebriation.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  I thought you might eventually stop whining, after your timed mispeakings ran out, but most of you Camerluvvies don’t.

                • E Roberts

                  I’m no fan of Cameron, but keep hitting the bottle; reality might catch up with you.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  You’re a socialist, so yes you’re a fan of Dave, lad.

              • RichardBaranov

                It was not a prediction it was a theoretical speculation about how the media would spin such a victory. You have not been proven right at all, you can’t argue with the math concerning Newark. Again your assertions are spurious, a fantasy not based on fact but wishful thinking.
                It is not an ad hominum when you deliberately misrepresent me and I then call you to task. You are, in fact, still whining because I called you on your dishonesty.

                • E Roberts

                  You’re clearly a very angry man. Try and relax; it makes whatever befalls us much more bearable.

                • RichardBaranov

                  Not angry at all. I simply have no time for people who misrepresent fact and then pretend that they are saying something valid. In short, I have no time for dishonesty.

                • E Roberts

                  Show me one instance where I was dishonest.

                • RichardBaranov

                  Sorry, I just had to rush back to answer your disingenuous question. You were dishonest in deliberately misrepresenting something I had written. Then started whining when you were taken to task for it. As the Viceroy points out, you are a socialist, a sad condition that makes you incapable of being truthful.

                • E Roberts

                  In other words, you can’t.

                  And if Viceroy is your best witness, I think the case will be thrown out at half time, as barristers say.

                  I’m also not a socialist, but then I suspect you, Viceroy and so many others who bandy the term around have only a hazy idea of what it means.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  No, actually, we have a clear idea, and you fit the definition quite well, lad.

                • E Roberts

                  But you’ll never actually share your “definition” with anyone because you know it won’t stand scrutiny; nor will you be able to explain how I supposedly fit it.

                  Bored of your limited intellect now; you’re just a troll.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  You socialist LibLabCon types can provide the definition you used to band together in Newark, lad.

                  And yes, you are a pure socialist troll, lad.

            • Mynydd

              How about this as a fact, George Galloway has against all the odds won a by-election, Farage as failed in all the by-elections he and his party have campaigned in.

              • the viceroy’s gin

                …so you’re saying UKIP should be racist fruitcake nutters like Galloway, as you mistakenly accuse them of being now?

        • Mynydd

          Should me not take you at your word?

          • RichardBaranov

            Not when it is taken out of context. I would do you that courtesy because I believe in being decent and because I don’t believe an argument can be won by misrepresentation.

    • Makroon

      Not all trolls, but plenty of Labour voting malcontents desperate that UKIP failed to give the Tories a black eye and that Labour’s vote actually fell ?
      Odd that the media keep going on about “four party politics”. No, it’s still three party politics but now the three are LabKIPCon.
      Welcome to “the establishment” Nigel !

      • the viceroy’s gin

        …and only 11.0 months until your boy Dave is excused from that club, lad.

  • Mike Thomas

    The interesting prospect here is would former Lib Dem voters give the Conservatives their support to stop UKIP?

    On this reduced turnover, there are some interesting statistics dividing turnout by voting intent

    per 1% turnout in 2010 and 2014.

    Tories – 386, 330 (-56)
    Labour – 160, 129 (-31)
    Lib Dems – 143, 19 (-124)
    UKIP – 27, 190 (+163)

    It begs a question where did all the Lib Dem & Labour votes go? They didn’t all go to UKIP.

    • Denis_Cooper

      First stop for most of the LibDem votes was Labour, which had very largely happened by early 2011.

      Some of those who deserted the LibDems for Labour during that period have since moved on to UKIP.

      It appears that in Newark about a third of those who were initially minded to vote Labour later decided to vote tactically to help the Tories stop UKIP, 9% off Labour and 9% on the Tories since the first Survation poll seems too close to be a coincidence.

      The Tories will read this as 2010 LibDem supporters switching direct to them, but the evidence suggests that in most cases those electors had already made an earlier switch from LibDem to Labour.

      When it comes to the general election I doubt that there will be anything like the same level of Labour supporters voting tactically for the Tories in order to block UKIP, or vice versa; as it was obvious that Labour had little chance of winning this by-election it was something of “a free hit” for anti-UKIP Labour supporters to vote Tory, but that won’t be repeated everywhere in 2015.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        Good analysis. This was allegedly the 44th safest Cameroon seat. It had the dynamics you’d expect, and as you described. The seats of interest to UKIP will be at the other end of this safeness spectrum.

        I get it now why Farage played it cautious in Newark. He knew all this, and the probable outcome, apparently.

    • wudyermucuss

      Interesting how interchangeable LibLabCon have become.
      Hence UKIP.

  • gerronwithit

    No more of a circuit break than Eastleigh and look at the state of the Lib Dums now. A 22% swing to Ukip is exactly that and cannot be spun any other way.

  • you_kid

    I don’t understand what all the FUSS is about.
    There was an election on last night? Really? What did we say 5 hrs before the votes were counted? UKIP to trail by 20%. What did UKIP do? It trailed by 20%.

    I rest my case. Well done UKIP! You’ve gotta lurv FPTP for keeping the
    loons out.

    • Grey Wolf

      But FPTP can’t keep a loon like you out of Speccie. What can we do about that? Not much I guess. Now go wipe your face with a clean towel.

  • Denis_Cooper

    Well done to the Tories for demonstrating that you can get more votes if:

    a) You put in a massive campaigning effort; and
    b) You have the mass media on your side; and
    c) You can get some of your opponents to join you against a common enemy.

    Because looking at the two Survation opinion polls and then the actual results, collected below, it is clear that over the past week or so a) and b) only slightly eroded support for UKIP, from 28% to 26%, but on the face if it c) was effective in getting about a third of those who were originally minded to vote Labour to instead help the Tories in their quest to stop UKIP, Labour support dropping by 9% while Tory support rose by 9%.

    First Survation poll, fieldwork May 27-28:

    http://survation.com/newark-by-election-poll-survation-the-sun/
    Tories 36%
    UKIP 28%
    Labour 27%
    LibDem 5%

    Second Survation poll, fieldwork June 2-3:

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Newark-poll-2.pdf

    Tories 42%
    UKIP 27%
    Labour 22%
    LibDem 4%

    Actual results of election June 5:

    Tories 45%
    UKIP 26%
    Labour 18%
    LibDem 3%

    • you_kid

      The common enemy indeed – the new BNP even, hahaha!

      • the viceroy’s gin

        Yes, you LibLabCon socialists are the common enemy, no doubt.

      • Denis_Cooper

        The common enemy for some but now the preferred party for others; I say again that according to those two opinion polls and the actual results everything that was thrown against UKIP only slightly eroded their support, 28% down to 26%, not that far below their support in the elections for the EU Parliament which was 32% in the Newark council area and 33% in the East Midlands region.

  • DaveTheRave

    The only way the Tories are going to win an overall majority next year is if the PM drops this ‘heir to Blair’, ‘progressive’ Conservative nonsense and present a party which is truly Conservative. Like Thatcher proved (rightly or wrongly), you can be from the radical right and be populist at the same time by appealing to EVERYONE. Yes, ultimately, she was divisive but that’s another issue.
    For me, the best result would be a very small Tory majority between 5 and 15, with (hopefully) a few Ukip MPs to bolster the new government, a reminder to make sure that the correct policies are instigated:
    1. Swift EU referendum.
    2. Finally, finally truly addressing the West Lothian Question by making sure only English MPs vote on English matters, effectively making Westminster once again the de fact and de jure English Parliament.
    3… many more to mention.

  • Blindsideflanker

    Cameron says they have to do more to win UKIP voters over for the next election.

    The truth is out. They want your vote for the next election and then you can **** off, for when you have given them your vote they will get on a do their own metropolitan thing for the next four years until they need your vote again.

    • DaveTheRave

      Absolutely right. Cynical is not the word. We need an end to this nonsense.

      • Blindsideflanker

        Even lying to us to get our votes seems like too much effort for them.

        Today Hague says they will lay out their renegotiation terms with the EU AFTER the next election.

        What bloody good is that to us?

  • john king

    Does this make UKIP the official opposition?

    • the viceroy’s gin

      In the sense that UKIP is ultimately going to be responsible for bringing down the Camerloon/LibDumb government, the answer is yes.

      • Mynydd

        You are now becoming a joke, UKIP cannot bring down the government for that you need MPs. and the failure to do a Galloway Farage still does not have a single MP.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          It’s you socialist nutters who are a joke.

          Of course UKIP can bring down the government. Just as happened in Canada. That’s the entire plan.

          Oh, and Galloway is a socialist nutter, just like you.

          • Inverted Meniscus

            No Galloway is a socialist nutter but that socialist nutter is an even bigger socialist nutter.

  • Lucy Sky Diamonds

    Goodbye Tory marginals!!!! Tory majority halved. Any seat with a majority less than 7000…. be afraid VERY afraid!

    The media machine get a grip – Newark is a Tory safe seat. False sense of security alert! The UKIP march has not been ‘halted’. Look at their level of support – 26%. That is pretty good if you average it out. They have a great chance of getting MPs next year.

    • Kitty MLB

      I am shocked to the core that UKIP didn’t win their first
      ever seat.I even had a purple cushion made.
      Especially so close after all the drama of the EU elections,
      and Nigel Farage being placed on a pedestal, I like
      that fellow but it was all rather over the top.
      I Just hope that after the press, media and eveyone else
      has built you up so much that they be gentle.
      UkIP’s time will come and they will get that MP
      And it will be a labour seat…

      • Lucy Sky Diamonds

        The media made it over the top in order to make anything but a win seem like a bubble bursting (which is bullsh*t). UKIP never expected to win this seat in a million years.

        Liberal Democrats: 1004 (2.6% -17.4%) – THAT should be the headlines! That is a shocking statistic.

        • Kitty MLB

          Oh yes UKIP saw this as their chance to gain
          their first seat. And I am sure if this was a
          Labour seat further up North then they might
          well have done.And Lib Dums will never help
          the Tories.I agree the news is how labour
          and the lib dems have no credibility unlike
          our two parties.

      • Shazza

        Agree. The best news is the drop of 4% in Labour’s support. I still believe that we Conservatives will win next year with a slim margin, very slim but still a win.
        Then we will see real change happening starting with the fair electoral boundaries being implemented.
        Roll on 2015.

        • Inverted Meniscus

          Spot on Shazza. The joy I felt at the news that Labour had come third with a reduced share of the vote was palpable. A compromise between the right of centre parties which I accept is unlikely, would prevent the political equivalent of Syphilus or the Labour Party as it is known from infecting British governance for a generation.

    • Tony_E

      The problem in reading anything from this is that By Elections, rather like the EU elections, are a free hit for the voter.

      Ejecting or electing one MP, in a fixed term parliament which is soon to end, where the majority (with coalition numbers) is pretty sound anyway, makes no substantive difference to the way the country is governed.

      In marginals next time around (and this was by no way anything like marginal), then there will be a much greater prize at stake – Miliband or Cameron for PM. It has yet to be seen how much the threat of a Miliband, Hollande style socialist government will drive the Conservative vote.

      If protest against the government is restricted to the safer Tory seats, where people feel the protest is without consequence, it is possible that UKIP might win large numbers of votes but secure no seats at all, which will leave them totally without a commons voice for another 5 years, and possibly one more EU treaty if enough federalist governments exist across the EU by 2019. So really it must be about what ex tory & lib dem voters decide to do in the marginals, and that is completely unclear at present.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        You’re mistaken in viewing UKIP as a “protest”, and the “protest” you discuss won’t be “restricted” to the “safer” Camerloon seats. That vote is going to be spread out wide, and Dave’s head is going to be spread out onto a spike as a result.

    • Mynydd

      You don’t get a MP by coming second. Get over it Mr Farage failed to win even though he said it was in the bag.

      • Denis_Cooper

        When did Farage say that it was in the bag?

        • Mynydd

          Each time he opens his mouth.

          • Denis_Cooper

            In that case you should have no difficulty providing an example of him doing so.

      • RichardBaranov

        Nigel Farage said no such thing.

        • Mynydd

          I notice you have not commented on why Mr Galloway won a by-election and Mr Farage has not.

          • Denis_Cooper

            I think maybe he’s concentrating on your questionable claim that Farage “said it was in the bag”, and rightly so.

            Prove it.

          • Bill_der_Berg

            George Galloway based his campaign on his opposition to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and on his support for the Palestinians. These turned out to be the right tactics in an area where there many Muslim voters.

            • Mynydd

              All you are saying is that Farage did not have the right tactics in any of the areas he campaign in. Some leader that.

              • Bill_der_Berg

                All I am saying is that George Galloway won because he stood on an anti-war ticket against a candidate from the war loving Labour Party.

              • the viceroy’s gin

                …he’s also saying that Farage isn’t a racist nutter fruitcake like Galloway, no matter what you socialist nutters say.

  • Lady Magdalene

    26% and I believe this is the 6th by-election in a row where UKIP have come from nowhere to take second place. That’s in Labour, LibDem and Tory voting areas.
    We just need a few more people to understand that the choice is between
    LibLabCON (on behalf of The British Establishment and the EU
    v
    UKIP (on behalf of the British people and Democracy.
    Cameron threw everything the Tories had at this seat. They won’t be able to do that next year.

    • Mynydd

      I believe this is the 6th by-election in a row where UKIP have failed to take a seat from Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem. On the other hand George Galloway and his Respect party came from nowhere to win a by-election. The big question for UKIP is if Mr Galloway can do it why has Mr Farage failed to do so.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        …because Galloway actually is the crazed racist fruitcake you socialist nutters accuse UKIP of being?

        • Mynydd

          My point was not about UKIP/Respect policies, racist or not, It was just stating the fact that Galloway has against all the odds won a by-election, whereas, Farage as failed to do so. His peoples army should be asking why Galloway can do it, but we can’t.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            …again, because Galloway actually is the crazed racist fruitcake you socialist nutters accuse UKIP of being?

            • Mynydd

              He may be all of this but it does not alter the fact Galloway has won a by-election and Farage has failed to win one after many attempts. Questions should be asked about Farage’s leadership, UKIP cannot go on like this; campaign after campaign, failure after failure. not an MP to show.

              • the viceroy’s gin

                …again, in answer to your repeated question, is it because Galloway actually is the crazed racist fruitcake you socialist nutters accuse UKIP of being?

                Now, it’s only you socialist nutters who are thinking UKIP is a “failure”. I see them having won the EP elections, the first national election in well over a century won by a 3rd party. They are capturing more and more local elections, and building support everywhere, not just in a couple discrete locations, but everywhere. They are strongly influencing government AND opposition policy, with nary an MP seat in hand, as you mention. They stopped a potential military incursion in Syria. They are already an effective and proven policy force in government and out, contrary to your assertions.

                You’re shrieking failure, but it’s coming out as only your own fear.

          • wudyermucuss

            Demographics.
            Why do you think G’allo’wah chose that constituency?

            • Denis_Cooper

              Hush, you’ll get yourself accused of being a phobic.

      • Makroon

        Because Galloway desisted from his womenising for a few weeks, but Farage didn’t ?

        • the viceroy’s gin

          …maybe if either was a multiply-accused rapist, you Camerloons would welcome them in, like you do with that other guy.

  • Kitty MLB

    So the Conservatives won their first by election for a quarter
    of a century.
    These results make 3 statements. They say despite the wish
    to give governing parties a bloody nose that on the economic
    message the Conservatives are still trusted.
    It says UKIP are on the road with the peoples party but they
    are not there yet and that Labour and the Lib Dems have no
    credibility.

    • Lucy Sky Diamonds

      It also says Tory marginal seats are looking very shaky indeed.

    • Bill_der_Berg

      The voters were letting us know that they have had enough of democracy and independence, and they look forward to being part of a undemocratic European superstate. I hope that they knew what they were doing.

  • Shorne

    “Second is just the first place loser”

    I think UKIP might do better if they select some more likeable, sympathetic candidates. The trouble is they are probably hard to find.

    • MirthaTidville

      Yep, they must have had a terrible job finding all those sucessful MEP`s

      • Makroon

        New definition of “successful” there. Picked from a list of cronies, on the back of Farage’s success.

        • Conway

          The UKIP MEP list (all candidates had to pass an assessment test to be approved) was voted for by members. Does that happen in other parties?

    • DaveTheRave

      Interesting point, but to be honest, I think the people (well, ok, ME then!) are fed up to the back teeth with ‘likeable’ and ‘sympathetic’ candidates. This too often cross references to political correctness. How about GENUINE candidates for once?

      • Kitty MLB

        Its about whose parties policies you support and
        placing that parties representative in Westminster.
        But yes I agree.More unconventional people
        in parliament please. Not run of the mill people,
        who are utterly dull.

        • DaveTheRave

          I concur.

          • Wessex Man

            I concur.

    • Lucy Sky Diamonds

      If it was a marginal seat……

    • Wessex Man

      I trhink there speaks a bitter Lib/dum lovey.

      • Shorne

        I voted Tory at the last general election, and I can spell.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          …so, same thing, then.

          • Shorne

            What?…Ah no wait a minute you’ll just advise me to scroll up and re-read what you wrote and then you’ll call me ‘lad’, forget it.

            • the viceroy’s gin

              …and you’ll whine and whimper like all socialists, forget it.

              • Shorne

                I should have added and call me a socialist when I’ve already said I voted Tory…I wonder if you really know what you are talking about?

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  LibLabCon are socialist clones, lad. I wonder if you really know what you are talking about?

                • Shorne

                  If you think the likes of Osborne, Gove,Grayling and Duncan Smith are ‘socialist clones’ you really are in a World of your own, and a very weird place it is.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  If you really think LibLabCon are anything other than socialist clones, you really are in a world of your own, and a very weird place it is .

                • Shorne

                  Give an example of how the current Tories are ‘socialists’.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  You mean, besides the fact that they congealed with their socialist LibLab mates in Newark the other day?

                  Sorry, laddie, but I’m not in the mood to play 20 questions with one of you socialist Camerluvvies. We’ll let the ongoing electoral results serve to educate you, which they probably won’t, given your 2-plankitude.

                • Shorne

                  I thought you wouldn’t be able to.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Actually, I did, lad. Not that you socialist Camerluvvies can comprehend, as mentioned.

    • wudyermucuss

      Like Clegg?Lol!
      Miliband?Very droll.

  • Christian

    Spinning this as a great result for the Tories is laughable. UKIP came from fourth to second. This seat will be within ukips grasp come the GE. Speccy got its boot licking orders from cameron

    • Mynydd

      With only 22.1% of the vote it’s not within UKIP’s grasp, what it means is that 77.9% didn’t vote UKIP

      • the viceroy’s gin

        …what percentage didn’t vote for the Millipedes? The LibDumbs?

      • NotYouNotSure

        77% also did not vote for Tory either.

  • witchblade01

    I had really hoped for a UKIP victory and am disappointed, that said if the swell of support for UKIP continues I really would be rather nervous if I was a Tory Mp with a small majority come next years election. Who knows what will happen, but the chances of a Tory victory next year don’t look too good right now and let’s face it why should there be, too many people demand a say on the EU and who governs us

    • Bernard from Bucks

      I too had hoped it would have been closer. Never mind as –
      Nigel says “..be very happy with this result tonight.”
      If the % swing (15.46% swing Con to UKIP) is applied to other constituencies, there are going to be
      a lot of MP’s getting their brown trousers out ready for next year.

      • Mynydd

        For a party leader to say he is very happy with being second has already lost it.

        • Bernard from Bucks

          The Ukip surge is now “going backwards”, the chairman of the
          Conservative Party has said, after it won the Newark by-election.
          Shocking isn’t it?. How on earth can UKIP recover?

          • Mynydd

            I don’t know what the Conservative Party has said, but if my memory serves me right at the previous by-election UKIP share of the vote was 29% whereas in this one it was 22%, To me that clearly show UKIP vote going backwards.
            How on earth can UKIP recover? They could start by asking George Galloway and the Respect Party how to win by-elections against the odds.

            • the viceroy’s gin

              No, UKIP took 26% in Newark, not 22%.

              If you’re trying to spin, you shouldn’t fabricate numbers, at least.

              Oh and if they wanted to be like Galloway, they could be racist fruitcakes like him, which you socialist nutters falsely accuse UKIP of being.

              • Mynydd

                Ok so 26% is greater than 29% the point is the UKIP share of the vote in by-elections is going backward. Fact.
                Galloway has won a by-election Farage has not. Fact.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Actually, no, the change isn’t statistically significant at all. Fact. Galloways is a racist fruitcake nutter, which you socialist nutters falsely accuse UKIP of being .Fact. UKIP has won a national election within the past 4 years, which no other party has done. Fact.

            • wudyermucuss

              By appealing to extremist demographic minorities?
              Sounds a bit racist though.

  • colliemum

    Yes, CCHQ and Mr Shapps must be very relieved indeed, spending that much effort and money to retain a 7000+ majority, down from 16,000+.
    UKIP are obvious losers, gaining only 22,1%, up from 4%: that’s really bad, to be sure.
    After all, come 2015, the Cabinet and Cameron can easily take a month off from governing and put in the same effort in all constituencies, and there will be a huge membership drive so that all constituencies can each have 1000 ‘activists’ descend on them on polling day.
    Lord Ashcroft better not spend so much money on polls but save it for polling day next year …

    • Kitty MLB

      Well considering all the bows and arrows being
      slung at the ‘ evil’ and unpopular Conservative party
      And if this place is an example of the wider electorate
      Where Hooky is slayed quite often and 80% people who
      post here are UKIP then the Conservatives done very
      well.And so did UKIP so well done.

      • MirthaTidville

        Hooky is slayed so often because he is rude and offensive

        • Kitty MLB

          Yes, hooky is not diplomatic in the slightest
          and is somewhat rude at times. But the most
          Vile, offensive, insulting, neanderthal in this
          place.Someone without an ounce of wit
          or charm is a nameless UKIP supporter,
          actually and not Hooky.

          • Count Dooku

            Hooky is a sock-puppet. He’s never critical of the party or Cameron. As much a Tory as I am, you don’t persuade people by throwing things like “bigot” and “racist” at people you disagree with. Unless it’s Wilhelm.

            • Kitty MLB

              Well I have tried to tell hooky that more he
              insults UKIP the more people will come to
              their defence and by insulting he is actually
              helping them . And he’s quite unique in the
              fact of seemingly agreeing with everything
              Cameron says and does.

            • HookesLaw

              I don’t care. These people are in fact beyond reason they are closer to a cult than anything.
              Cameron is to the left of me and I do not agree with ‘global warming policy’, or indeed many other things, but I have no intention of setting up a Hooke’s Party financed by some deluded millionaire which would split the right wing vote and let in something far worse.
              The biggest clear and present danger to this country is a europhile labour govt led by a crypto Marxist.

              I will try not to get too big headed to find people talking about me rather than the hypocritical kipper who imports scores of low wage migrants for his business. How did he get so high up the UKIP list? Did he make a donation?

          • Makroon

            Kitty, the Internet and “reality TV” has enabled and encouraged every opinionated citizen in the land to “have his / her say” (read the bizarre Daily Mail comments sections), but let’s not be fooled into thinking this is in any way representative.
            Most Brits don’t like politicians of any stripe, aren’t much interested in politics, and tend to be cautious, conservative and pretty level-headed.

            • the viceroy’s gin

              Heh. A socialist Camerluvvie broaching “conservative”.

        • HookesLaw

          Yes. But look at the vile and nasty people one has to deal with on here. Mr E. Roberts must have the patience of a saint.
          I am blunt because you deserve it.

          • MirthaTidville

            No one has a problem with `blunt`….but you sadly mistake it for being rude and obnoxious. You would get your point over much better and be listened to if you just stuck to`blunt`..There is a difference

      • Wessex Man

        Kitty, you are mistaken if you think that the Tories have had anything thrown at them to match that which has been thrown by your party the Labour party and the Lib/dums in particular especially in my area at UKip!

        A previous poster on this thread has said it all, the Tory party will not be able to throw such resourses at every seat contended next year and won’t have a 16,000 majority to play with.

        I welcome the coming election and challenges ahead, do you and Hooky?

      • Adam Carter

        Oh, come on.
        This place isn’t an example of the wider electorate. You must know that. This place is for enthusiasts of politics, primarily UK politics.
        It may well be true that 80% of commenters here take a pro-UKIP line, but how many of the articles we comment on are pro-UKIP? Hardly any.
        And it’s articles and presentations like that that most people read, and those are largely anti-UKIP.

        • Makroon

          Up to a point Adam.
          It has been noticeable that the centre-right press (including the Spectator), has been trimming in the UKIP direction recently – no doubt for narrow commercial reasons (surfing the wave).
          The Express reads like a UKIP pamphlet these days.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            …only a shiny eyed LibLabCon acolyte would think that, lad.

        • Extoryfruitcake

          Recent YouGov research shows that 47% of voters believe that the news media is biased against UKIP, and just 13% biased in UKIP’s favour. So it’s not just us Kippers (unless 47% of voters are secret UKIP supporters).

    • whs1954

      Amazing how the UKIP troll narrative has changed. Not that long ago it was Come on Roger! and how the Tories going to be humiliated; now a 7000 majority isn’t enough.

      UKIP are down from leading in Newark with 32% just two short weeks ago (it was plastered on all your leaflets in a bar chart) to this defeat.

      • global city

        The Tories were whooped in Rotherham…… must mean something by your crazy reckoning?

    • Mynydd

      The simple facts are, you don’t win parliamentary seats with 22.1% of the vote. The Cabinet and Mr Cameron will concentrate not on all constituencies, but on only the 20/30 seats Mr Farage’s UKIP will contest, no problem.

  • MrsDBliss

    You say a comfortable majority of 7,000; wasn’t the previous majority in the region of 16,000?
    Also you mention the vote share for labour and lib dems, but not for Tories. Perhaps we should look at them? Conservatives: 17,431 (45% -8.9%)
    UKIP: 10,028 (25.9% +22.1%)
    Labour: 6,842 (17.7% -4.6%)
    Liberal Democrats: 1004 (2.6% -17.4%)
    Turnout: 53%
    Majority: 7,403
    So the only party with a share increases is UKIP if 22%. This is after the Tories massive operation, completely unsustainable at a GE. Your analysis and mine are very different. I certainly wouldn’t be delighted if I was a Tory right now.

    • telemachus

      The triumph of the moral majority

      • MrsDBliss

        Yes you’re right, an increase of vote share of 22% is triumphant. Thanks for recognising the strong morals behind it.

        • telemachus

          Keep at the 22%
          This will deliver 43 Tory marginal to Labour

      • Kitty MLB

        An early morning buzzathon again, little wasp,
        annoying as many as possible.
        The moral majority.No one can say that about Labour
        So no need for you to crow.If this was a area in the
        North and a Labour seat, I am sure you would have
        lost the seat to UKIP.

        • telemachus

          Labour discounted Newark long ago
          *
          We will see the decline of racism in politics from now on

          • Wessex Man

            how can you talk about a party you once a member of such terms, Labour are welcome to you.

          • Adam Carter

            Please enumerate UKIP’s racist policies.
            I don’t think there are any.
            I challenge you to go into detail rather than just repeat the word ‘racist’.

            • Inverted Meniscus

              There are none but he is stooge for Labour the party of lies, lying and liars so what do you expect?

              • helicoil

                Don’t forget PIE

            • wudyermucuss

              Racist is actually a bit old school.
              Bigot is the new racist (is the new heretic).

          • wudyermucuss

            Racism,ie people acknowledging actual ethnic and cultural differences will never decline.The misuse of the word will however.

      • girondas

        “The triumph of the moral majority”

        Good to see the disgraced Labour Party being replaced by UKIP. Chickens are coming home to roost.

        • telemachus

          You will find this only a threat in Tory marginals
          Further Labour will be the beneficiary

          • the viceroy’s gin

            False.

            And the Millipedes engaged in a compact with the Camerloons in Newark, to boot.

          • global city

            You’ll have to campaign for UKIP then.

      • Jono

        The triumph of rising before your alarm clock. Where you really up around 5am posting this tripe

    • DaveTheRave

      Yes, not an earthquake, or a landslide maybe, but it could be a significant pointer to what COULD be done in certain seats next May. +22% is what it is! Ukip do not have anything like the ‘big’ parties’ apparatus, but if they target seats next year, the richter scale will almost certainly show a significant shifting of the political ground.
      And surely this is a HUGE blow for Labour, the major opposition party hoping to win next May? No doubting this, the most significant thing of all.
      And yes, let the sensible among us ignore the incessant spin from all sides.

      • telemachus

        Fortunately nowhere do they have the infrastructure to ntarget seats
        *
        My guess is that the vote next May will fall back to 14% overall and at best 20% in the targeted constituencies
        Big enough to deliver the 43 Tory marginal to Labour only

        • Wessex Man

          You’re such a card, you should be on the stage!

          • Inverted Meniscus

            Yes there is one leaving town in 10 minutes.

        • Inverted Meniscus

          I think not. The public appear to have already made their minds up about Miliband and do not see him as prime ministerial material. Indeed, they see him as a callow, ignorant, preposterous, dissembling, incompetent idiot surrounded by a coterie of incompetent liars and oafs and deficient in the intellectual power needed to negotiate the complexities of a bacon sandwich. A banana undid his brother and a bacon sandwich has buried him.

          • Mynydd

            I see him as a man who stood up to News International, the Daily Mail, and the big six energy companies, so much so my energy monthly direct debt has gone down from £120 to £96

            • Count Dooku

              You think your bill went down because of Miliband?

              • fundamentallyflawed

                Most bills go down in the summer as you use less supply. Next Miliband claims credit for the sun rising in the morning.

                • Count Dooku

                  Haha, nice one. Have a vote.

                • Mynydd

                  I did not say energy bills I said monthly direct debt which is the same each month throughout the year.

              • Mynydd

                Yes

            • Fred Smith

              Bear in mind that no one else had done quite so much to put them up in the first place, him being one of the prime movers of the Climate Change Act which is a major reason for the price increases.

              • the viceroy’s gin

                The Cameroons were on board with that nonsense as well .

                • Fred Smith

                  They were trying to outbid each other as greener than thou and there was almost complete unanimity on the vote, but Miliband was one of the prime movers. He even had Bryony Worthington, a climate change activist, with zero knowledge of engineering or power provision, heavily involved with drafting the legislation.

                • global city

                  Yes…and they’re stuck with it now…. so one less area of attack that could be made in the GE.

                  We’ll have to leave it to UKIP to campaign for an end to the AGW nonsense and it’s terrible costs.

            • robertsonjames

              Your energy bill has gone down because oil prices, the main driver of energy costs, have fallen in the last six months. That has precisely nothing to do with Buzz Lightyear’s populist rhetoric of last autumn and everything to do with the global over-supply of oil at a time of weak demand, though your ignorance about the economic fundamentals does serve to underline that you’re classic Labour-voting material, easily duped by politicians promising to wave a magic wand and make reality disappear.

              • Count Dooku

                Not to mention the strength of Sterling. It has helped push down import costs for energy immensely.

            • Inverted Meniscus

              In a determined effort to limit freedom of speech and with an proposition to the energy companies which would inevitably produce an energy shortage and increased costs. I know you are an ignorant Labour Troll but try not to share your ignorance with everybody.

            • Bill_der_Berg

              There was a time when flint-hearted, rapacious capitalists would tremble at the prospect of a Labour government. Not any more. They know that Labour has been emasculated, even though the party still has Ed Balls.

        • robertsonjames

          Bang on. The best political fun off-stage in the next Parliament will be had in watching what happens as UKIP fail to win any MPs at all and the consequences of their self-inflicted electoral impotence start to be felt among irate right-wing voters.

          Having ensured a Labour government with barely 34% of the vote is able to implement a series of left-wing policies (much more immigration, more taxes on pensions and savings, signing the next EU treaty, etc. etc.), many of Farage’s current supporters will have to come to terms with the fact that UKIP can do precisely nothing about it but that voting Tory would make the end of Miliband and Balls much more likely.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            You’re mistaken if you think any of the LibLabCon socialist cabal is going to do anything different as far as policy. They won’t. The Cameroons adopted Darling’s budget. They love spending and borrowing. They raised taxes as a first measure. The bonfire of the quangoes will not be televised. The EUSSR politburo will appoint another von rumpy lumpy, and so on.

          • global city

            Blah, blah, blah, balblabla.

            Have you no views of your own?
            http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100275121/rude-arrogant-euro-fanatical-jean-claude-juncker-may-be-our-best-choice/

            Cameron is a Europhile and could be about to be caught out. If he refuses to meet Juncker we should all demand to know why? Juncker could sidestep the obstruction by going straight to the press who are tailing him.

    • Mynydd

      I understand Mr Farage has been on the phone to Mr George Galloway on how to come from nothing to win by-elections.

      • global city

        Rig the Muslim vote?

    • Adro

      For a governing party to hold a by-election seat is pretty impressive. For a governing party to hold a by-election seat following an economic crisis, and austerity (as perceived) is more impressive. For them to do this on the back of a Euro elections where they took a kicking, in a seat where the MP resigned on the back of a scandal is impressive. That is why the Tories will be happy.

      UKIPs vote went up, yes. But considering they took 27% in Eastleigh, and that was without the momentum of the huge increase in the Euro elections behind them, this is not exactly brilliant. I understand your argument generally, but the narrative is of failure because UKIP have hyped themselves up, talking about a people’s army and an earthquake all the time, and how they were going to crush the Tories, so in comparison their performance looks weak (even though it isn’t). Even Farage was on TV before the result saying the Tories would win, but only by a couple of thousand votes. Hence why the performance looks better vis a vis the Tories, and worse in relation to UKIP.

      • MrsDBliss

        Yes the narrative, but the reality really isn’t. It’s a substantial increase. Farage may have miscalculated the amount the Tories would win by, but it was still a significant reduction in a seat UKIP never thought it would win and has consistently said that all along.

        • Adro

          I agree, but you’re still ignoring the fact that this is a by-election against the sitting party. You don’t win these, under any circumstances. This is the first time that the Tories have held a by-election in 25 years. That is why they’re happy.

          In that context, UKIP and the Tories have done well (especially to still secure the majority they have), Labour/LD have done badly.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            LibLabCon have done well, you mean. The socialist clones won.

          • MrsDBliss

            Well have to disagree on your first point considering the amount of a safe seat it was. I understand why the Tories are happy and can concede with your statement about UKIP and Tories.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        The Camerloons put everything into this, including a pact with the rest of LibLabCon, and they still dropped about 10 points. Next May, they are doomed.

      • wudyermucuss

        If you consider a 22% swing to UKIP bad for them,and a Tory majority halved good for them,then yes,you are correct.

    • Makroon

      The point is, this was a by-election for a safe Tory government seat, and Red managed to collect 4.6% fewer votes than Brown.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        No, the point is on top of the spike on which Dave’s head is going to be mounted, 11.0 months from now.

  • Extoryfruitcake

    Erm – Swing TO UKIP + 22.1%. Swing AWAY FROM Conservatives -8.9%. Spin is supposed to be CREDIBLE, Spectator!

    • ArchiePonsonby

      Exactly! Cut the Tory majority by 60%. Not bad for beginners!

    • Kitty MLB

      The swing to UKIP was much lower then that Nigel Farage
      predicted. And when it came down to it after all the
      sound and fury from other parties, the majority is
      comfortable.

      • MrsDBliss

        It may week have been not what Nigel predicted, but in comparison to its previous majority it’s appalling. Particularly after the concerted effort that went into getting it. This was one of their safest seats and UKIP increased their vote by 22% in an election for Westminster. Given the same pattern, without the concerted effort, would you be confident if you were a Tory mp in a less safe seat? I wouldn’t.

        • Kitty MLB

          I don’t actually believe in safe seats especially
          in our anti estabishment climate and with
          everyone wishing to give the government
          a bloody nose.
          Especially so close after EU elections and the
          Council elections. And all the hype surrounding
          UKIP, who I am supportive of generally.

          • Adam Carter

            I haven’t seen much hype about UKIP.
            True, there are commenters on blogs who take a pro-UKIP line, but we are only commenters. The journos and pundits are overwhelmingly anti-UKIP and have repeatedly distorted the policies and smeared the party.
            As an example, how many times have you seen it said or suggested that UKIP are a bunch of racists. It is completely untrue but there is a deliberate attempt to get that idea into the public consciousness.
            How many times have you seen it said or suggested that UKIP is anti-immigration? Again, not true. UKIP is in favour of controlled immigration.
            But the vast majority of the electorate read and hear the suggestions, not the details.
            So ‘hype surrounding UKIP’, not really.

            • David

              What you say is broadly true of UKIP as a party. However, it would seem from reading the comments sections of various newspapers / blogs. that a large number of UKIP supporters are anti immigration and are racist.

              There was a time when I might have considered voting UKIP, but now I really wouldn’t want to be associated with it. The policies might not be racist / anti immigration but it seems quite a few supporters are.

              • Adam Carter

                Thank you.
                That’s an interesting point.
                The issue that has come up for me in discussion with some friends is that of gay marriage.
                I’m a sort of soft libertarian, (not hard core or pure), and I simply don’t care about what gays might do.
                Farage is also, I believe a sort of half-libertarian.
                Yet some UKIP voters apparently rail against ‘damn pooftahs.’
                I vote UKIP, they vote UKIP.What to make of that?
                But, it’s the same in other parties. Some Labour members are close to being totalitarians, most are not. Some Conservatives are raging EUphiles who would give away all sorts of power to Brussels (Ken Clarke, who is so keen on it he couldn’t even be bothered to rad the Mastricht Treaty), but many are not.
                I don’t know the answer.

                • David

                  Yes, the Labour / Conservative parties have their own ‘fruitcake’ supporters, and probably members, but I suspect that they are a much smaller proportion of the membership / supporter base than is the case with UKIP and they have little influence on policies..

                  Given that UKIP is immature as an organisation and given the apparently large number of supporters ( just read a few DT blog comments ) and a few members who do hold racist views there is a clear risk that UKIP will tend towards the views espoused by its supporters.

                  I have similar views to you on gay marriage; doesn’t bother me at all.

                  Controlled immigration; essential. The only way to get that is via a renegotiation and if that fails exit the EU. I’m afraid voting UKIP doesn’t deliver that. Post GE UKIP will probably not have many / if any MPs and will probably not hold the balance of power. So, in the real world, they only way to make progress is to elect a conservative government and then campaign hard in the referendum to get the right result.

                • Count Dooku

                  This is exactly my position on UKIP. Spend a few hours reading the DT blogs and you lose all intentions to vote for them. Everyone who votes Tory is apparently a “traitor” and part of the LibLabCon Metropolitan Elite (c)”

                • Adro

                  Well said.

                • atticus1900

                  I think you might just be remembering the comments that stick out. There are plenty of reasonable UKIP commentators (I like to think of myself as one such – look through my comments history if you like), who battle online for decent debate against those with extreme views.

                  As a personal anecdote, I have had many dealings with various government departments, and have found a massive majority of civil servants to be ardent Labour supporters, if not Labour Party members. A brief political joust with these people does unfortunately lead one to conclude that the out of touch London ‘metropolitan elite’ is in fact alive and well, and at the levers of power.

                • Count Dooku

                  I wish I was generalising but unfortunately I’m not. That’s why I rarely comment on any political articles in the Telegraph. Coffee House is much better though. There are lots of Kippers and a lot are happy to debate on the issues.

                  PS: it’s no surprise that people who suck the State’s teat support a socialist party.

                • E Roberts

                  Quite. My highlight was being called a blood traitor by a UKIPite for expressing indifference to the rise in the number of mixed-race marriages.

                  UKIP, by your friends shall ye be known.

                • Count Dooku

                  They are a very mixed bunch and I think that they have lost a lot of their original libertarian supporters who have been replaced by reactionaries.

                  It’s easy to disagree without being insulting. Telemachus for all his/her wrong-headed ness in politics is never insulting.

                • E Roberts

                  Absolutely. And agree your point about the exit of libertarians; increasingly, they sound like Le Pen’s FN, with its appeal to a land of yesteryear and protectionism, even if the UKIP leadership maintains a pro-business/global trading outlook.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  What would you socialists know about “libertarians”, besides making up some nonsense about them in order to attack your hated UKIP enemies?

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …same goes for you LibLabCon clones, lad.

                • southerner

                  Sorry David you are living in a fantasy world. The social democrats that have taken over the Tory party despise their members, treat their views with disdain and have no interest other than themselves. Campaigning hard for a referendum at all, let alone one with the “right result” is away with the fairies.

                  Your point about gays is, respectfully, entirely beside the point. Simply redefining a great institution like marriage just because it is trendy amongst the metropolitan elite and without any electoral or manifesto mandate, is fundamentally un-conservative. That is just one example why the left of centre achingly trendy Tory party is not a conservative party at all. It needs to be completely destroyed and started again.

                • David

                  Polling about gay marriage shows more people in support than against.

                  In the event of a referendum I’m sure UKIP would campaign vigorously to leave. The Libdems would campaign to stay in. Cons and Labour would probably struggle to get a coherent stance agreed amongst themselves. All points of view could be debated and the electorate could make their decision. Of course if UKIP split the Tory vote there is a good chance that nothing happens on the EU front.

                  I really fail to see why you say ‘ away with the fairies’. If you think that perhaps you explain why?

                • southerner

                  What has polling got to do with anything? Re-read my post. I am talking about whether or not the Tories are conservative. They are not.
                  As for the fairies, the referendum won’t take place. Even if it did the liblabcon would not allow an exit.

                • E Roberts

                  There’s a fundamental problem at the heart of British conservatism, namely that the most successful Tory PM of the past half century was anything but conservative.

                  NF sometimes describes himself as Thatcherite, but more recently he said he “used to be” a Thatcherite. I suspect that’s because Thatcherism is the antithesis of the conservatism that much of his party (you included) seem to want. And yet, it’s Thatcher that many former Tory voters reminisce about.

                • southerner

                  That word “seem” is just a weasel word to attach views to me that aren’t true. As for Tory voters reminiscences, how do you know? And even if you are right, so what?

                • E Roberts

                  What is it with UKIPites and their perpetual persecution complex; why be so aggressive? I used the word ‘seem’ to indicate that I was not claiming it as fact, merely basing it on your comment, from which I deduced that you were conservative and bemoaned the fact that the Conservatives were not. Take a damn chill pill; if you’re not conservative, great, you’ve just informed us all.

                  My view is that Thatcher carried a large number of aspirational working class votes by promising change and disrupting the status quo; she offered the working man/woman an opportunity to achieve and own and be things that previously had seemed unattainable in an overly-conservative, stratified society. I’m not claiming her intentions were pure, nor that they were necessarily fairly-implemented, nor do I believe that she achieved all this without considerable help from a self-destructive Labour Party.

                  But the point is that the greatest electoral winner the Tories have had in living memory was fundamentally unconservative. That’s relevant because of your comment; I’d say that the proper yardstick for the current Tory leadership is not whether they are conservative (unwilling to contamplate gay marriage) or not as the party has enjoyed its best successes when it did not act true to its small-c namesake.

                • southerner

                  I am not aggressive in the slightest though irritated by views being falsely attributed to me. I am a conservative though not a kipper (see what I mean about assumption?). I simply see the kippers as the only option to destroying the Tory party and putting in its place a genuinely conservative party.

                  You are right about Thatcher not being particularly conservative. Whether or not a not very conservative Tory party enjoyed electoral success in the past though is irrelevant to my earlier comment whatever you might assert to the contrary. What is true is that another pretend conservative party enjoying power would continue the destruction of this country we have endured over the past 30 years.

                • E Roberts

                  By UKIPite I was referring not just to party members but to all who choose to support that party, for whatever reason. Will you agree that my use of the word ‘seem’ was not inappropriate, that I was actually trying to signal the fact I was merely going by what I had read? It might defuse the atmosphere here…

                  My point was not to disagree with you particularly; I was suggesting that UKIP is inheriting the problems at the heart of Conservatism/conservatism.

                  As Count Dooku has described elsewhere, UKIP was a radical party with libertarian, free trade tendencies, now increasingly replaced by a party that is essentially conservative and pining for a time when the UK was whiter, more traditional, more Christian, less openly gay and of course less involved in Europe. The natural support base for that is, frankly, fast shrinking; that way lies oblivion, even if they score some short-term electoral successes (which the main parties will snuff out when they steal UKIP’s clothes on immigration).

                  “Stop the world, I want to get off” is a poor maxim to take into a GE and my point was simply that Conservatives (and those on the right) do best when they are not conservative. UKIP’s future is doomed as a conservative organ.

                • southerner

                  If that is what you were intending by the use of the word “seem” I am happy to accept that. It is still a lazy and inappropriate way to debate. Comment and debate on what is “actually” said by all means.
                  The Conservative Party may have enjoyed it’s best electoral success when it was not conservative. So what? That is in the past. What is best for this country now is a genuinely conservative party whatever it is called. That is what I am arguing for. The current Tory party is not it.

                • E Roberts

                  I suspect Cameron has had to be less conservative than he might have been because he is in coalition. He belongs firmly in the patrician high Tory tradition.

                  But on gay marriage, I think that was going to happen now anyway, whether or not Clegg had come out so firmly for it. The clear majority of the public supports it and EM and DC had to file in behind NC.

                • Mike

                  Just like a whore, Cameron had to sell out to the LibDumbs to have have some semblance of power but conservative he is NOT !

                • E Roberts

                  I believe that was my point.
                  No need to refer to them as LibDumbs; it’s petty schoolboy taunting and rather undermines the value of anything you might have to say.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  What a load of fantastical blathering that is, lad.

                  Do you intend that your infantile burbling fantasies re UKIP are to be persuasive?

                • E Roberts

                  I didn’t mention UKIP at all.

                  I was talking with someone with better debating abilities than yours, lad; someone who can stick to a topic without meandering off.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  You’re either a lunatic or a liar. Or both.

                  Scroll up, lad.

                • E Roberts

                  Like I said, better debating abilities than yours, lad. You responded to my comment to southerner, in which I posited that DC had been constrained from being conservative by coalition; no mention of UKIP. I have mentioned UKIP in other posts but that’s not the point.

                  I won’t insult you in the way you do me, because you are literally too stupid to insult. Oh, sorry.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Like I said… either a lunatic or a liar… or both.

                • E Roberts

                  Oh, YOU said. In that case, you must be right.

                  You redefine non sequitur logic.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …and scroll up to see your lunacy or lack of logic, or both.

                • Count Dooku

                  E Roberts makes a very valid point. There is nothing conservative about the modern Tory party and I’m eternally grateful to Holy Margaret for the change.

                  The old Tory party was deeply paternalistic and status and its traditions stemmed from the old feudalist system. I would have never supported the party of Heath for example.

                  That paternalism still exists in Cameron who moralises about most things but there is also a much larger classical Liberal wing of the party with a natural instinct to let citizens live as they wish. This is Thatcher’s legacy and is the only way the party can win support in an open, modern world.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Huh? The Camerluvvies are the epitome of nanny state socialists. They spy on everybody, and help other nations to spy. They enacted press censorship. They love political correctness. They love all the pet lefty causes, global warmingism, homosexual marriage and all the rest of it.

                  Face it, they are pure socialists, like all of LibLabCon.

                • Mike

                  Aggressive ? That’s rich when the left throw racist and bigot around like confetti at UKIP just because we wish to have an honest debate over inconvenient truths.

                  As I said above, Thatcher was true blue Conservative in her ideology but you seem to be blind to it.

                • E Roberts

                  No, not blind, just holding a different view than you. Many people on the right of the political spectrum believe that Thatcher was rather radical and therefore not conservative; that she was a capital-c Conservative is not in question.

                  As for your digression over aggression, what business is it of yours? I was corresponding with a poster who reacted aggressively without cause and asked him why he did so. What does your point about “the left throw racist and bigot around like confetti at UKIP” have to do with the price of eggs? Utterly irrelevant to my discussion with that individual and irrelevant because I’m not of the ‘left’.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …yes, you are of the Left, lad.

                  Your dissembling is the first confirmation of that .

                • E Roberts

                  you’re funny

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  You’re sad.

                • E Roberts

                  Must be why I’m smiling and content with life.

                  I can almost picture how desperate your life must be. Farewell.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  No, you’re sad, and the need to push imagery to the contrary is the surest sign.

                • E Roberts

                  sure.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Yes, sure.

                • Mike

                  I fully accept that you have a different view to me but nothing Thatcher did was radical. The poll tax was a classic example of this where everyone who used public services should pay towards them but unfortunately for Thatcher, she had failed to take ainto account that many potential poll tax payers would disappear from the electoral rolls.

                  My point about the left is well proven as at every opportunity they twist honest debate into totally unfounded allegations of racism and bigotry.

                • E Roberts

                  Perhaps they do but my perspective is that pundits on both flanks engage is straw-man arguments, misrepresentation and unfounded allegations…

                • Mike

                  Absolutely, the word ‘seem’ from a wet liberal is their lame attempt to make fantasy a reality but it doesn’t hold up when scrutinized.

                • Mike

                  Here is the definition of what conservatism is – disposed to preserve existing conditions, institutions, etc., or to restore traditional ones, and to limit change.

                  I think that can encapsulate Thatchers time in office pretty well unlike Camerons sell out so far. Cameron has continued Labours rape and pillage through UK institutions, sovereignty and torn up long held values among the electorate and changed it beyond any recognition of what we had before. He promised to reverse Labours social engineering projects but instead he joined that band wagon against the wishes of the electorate.

                  That is why many former Tory voters reminisce about Thatcher and are now looking at Farage to carry on the strife against left wing ideology from the LibLabCon artists !

                • E Roberts

                  I can agree with your definition of conservatism; but unlike you, I and many others (across the political spectrum) believe that she did not preserve as many institutions as you suggest.

                  It’s a difference of opinion.

                • Mike

                  The difference of opinion is that the bleeding heart liberals attempt to re-define dictionary definitions of well established and understood descriptions, adjectives & nouns to fit their their view of the world rather than the reality !

                • Conway

                  Ask the question the right way and you can get any result you like with a poll.

                • Makroon

                  UKIP are anti EU and anti-immigrant, LibDems are pro-EU and hushed-up on immigrants, but apart from that, the two parties are similar.
                  They will both say whatever a particular target constituency want to hear, and use any sort of half-truth to win the unhappy protest voter. They both have some bizarre “policies”, which both Clegg and Farage always disavow, and as parties of protest, they have both accreted a motley mix of chancers, opportunists, and cranks.
                  The wild claims and hubris of Shirley Williams winning her famous by-election, sounds exactly like the gobby, Diane James sounding off after Eastleigh.
                  But at least UKIP have a charismatic leader.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  All that Camerluvvie blathering post, and UKIP just walked into a safe Camerloon seat and took 26%, on the way to mounting Dave’s head on a spike early next May.

                • Conway

                  Correction – UKIP is anti uncontrolled immigration not anti immigrant.

              • Adam Carter

                It is only fair that I tell you that I am in favour of controlled immigration, but I would stop all muslim immigration immediately.
                I reject any claim that this is racist.
                The racists are those who fail to condemn the teachings of the RoP because most of its adherents are non-white.

                • Adro

                  Adam, hate to say it, but that is at the very least discriminatory. Banning one group people from coming to this country because of their particular religion is targeting them, as much as you may not want to hear it.

                  Islam may have a strong extremist element, and it should be condemned and mocked for the medieval idiocy that it preaches, but that is no reason to target anyone who happens to share an association with that faith is just wrong. It would be like banning any Christian on the basis of some of the rubbish extremist pastors come out with in the US and at home.

              • helicoil

                That’s the reason I don’t vote Labour or Lib Dem, their policies might not support peado’s or sexual perverts but some of their MP’s do.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …not to mention their front benchers.

              • RichardBaranov

                And you don’t think there are racists harboured in the three main parties? If you use racism as an excuse not to vote for UKIP and give your vote to Liblabcon you are truly delusional. From the numbers that vote for the mainstream, statistically they must harbour more racists than UKIP. Only UKIP has an official policy that racists are not welcome, the other parties seem to be quite happy to take in members of the BNP and other disgusting types that UKIP sends packing.

                • Adro

                  I don’t think anyone in their right minds imagines that there are not colourful characters in every major party. However, you’ve got to be equally blind to try and argue that UKIP doesn’t attract an apparently larger number of people who say some odd things. At least, they seem to be in more prominent positions in UKIP. Your own leader came up with some nonsense about knowing ‘good’ foreigners from ‘bad’ ones, and Helmer has said some frankly idiotic things about gay people.

                  They may not be representative of the wider membership, indeed I doubt they are, but their relative prominence has created a narrative which it it will be very hard to shake.

                • RichardBaranov

                  In both instances you cite you use dishonesty, a distortion of fact to suit your purpose. Might I suggest that you research on the internet, get your facts straight, then post. It is rather pointless to take your smears as if they are valid. But, that you resort to dissembling is indicative that people of your ilk cannot argue on the facts but must use disinformation. Then you pretend to be taking some sort of moral high ground. Truly astonishing!!!

                • Adro

                  What are you on about? What is dishonest about it? In 2012 Helmer likened gay marriage to incest, and Farage clearly said in an interview that he wouldn’t want Romanians living next door to him.

                  What about that is ‘astonishing’? Or do you not like factual information in relation to UKIP figures? I’m not claiming any moral high ground, I’m merely pointing out that senior Kippers have a habit of shooting themselves in the foot by coming out with stupid comments like the above in media interviews.

                • Makroon

                  Those statements by Farage and Helmer are not incautious ‘throw-away’ lines, they are quite deliberate dog-whistles, and the subsequent “you have misunderstood what I meant”, is the same old trick used by disreputable politicians of all parties since time immemorial.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …and this illegitimate smearing of UKIP by the LibLabCon bloc is only going to grow their numbers, and see off the bloc.

                • RichardBaranov

                  In both instances you cite above you simply parrot the mainstream media misrepresentation of what was actually said. I suggest you go and ascertain the actual facts of what was actually said.

                • Extoryfruitcake

                  He didn’t liken gay marriage to incest; he said “If two men have a right to marry, how can we deny the same right
                  to two siblings. Are we to authorise incest?”. I know of two sisters who lived together all their lives. When one of them died in old age, the survivor had to sell her house, because she did not have the same financial protection as if she was married. In all fairness, how can we deny them the same right?
                  Neither did Farage say that he wouldn’t want Romanians living next door to him; he said that people could be concerned if a group of Romanian men moved in next door to them. Whilst you may not like or agree with either comment, it doesn’t help your argument if you just make things up.

                • wudyermucuss

                  The narrative seems very acceptable to the voters.

              • global city

                What did all these racists do before UKIP?

                They all seem to have been hiding for 30 years.

                The idiocy in your post is obviously idiotic.

                • David

                  They had no focus, they had no party which they consider, rightly or wrongly, to support their views. They had no party they might possibly shape to their views. They had little influence.

                  Thank you for a polite and well reasoned argument.

                • E Roberts

                  I disagree – some did vote BNP (now barely registering any votes) while others nursed their racist views within the broader political mainstream. But I voted you up for your restrained handling of the Angry Man from UKIP.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  I voted you down for being a socialist (like your BNP mates).

                • E Roberts

                  You really don’t know much, do you?

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …you really are a whining socialist, aren’t you?

                • E Roberts

                  You have presumably noticed the collapse this year in the BNP vote; the fact Nick Griffin lost his MEP seat?

                  I suspect UKIP’s ‘appealing’ policies on immigration also persuaded those most persuadable in other parties to join the People’s Army.

                  That’s where the racists have been for 30 years.

                • global city

                  But UKIP poll vastly more votes than the BNP ever did. Your assertion is nothing more than puerile and childish finger pointing.

                  Please explain precisely what you find so ‘unappealing’ about UKIP’s immigration policy?

                • E Roberts

                  You accused David of being an idiot, now me of being puerile and childish (same thing, btw)… You thereby maintain UKIPites’ track record of being unable to post a comment without resorting to unpleasant ad hominem attacks. I wish I knew why you all seem so angry all the time.

                  You asked where the racists had been hiding all these years; I replied that a good number of them had been hiding among the BNP’s voting figures (now all but disappeared), and hypothesised that others had previously voted for other parties.

                  As for the immigration policy, I don’t believe UKIP has a policy on anything; it has soundbites and some stated aims, but nothing amounting to a manifesto or serious policy work. The 2010 UKIP manifesto hadn’t even been read by NF and he recently laughed it off as a load of rubbish. I think there’s only so far you can take this anti-politics stuff before it becomes tiresome.

                • Extoryfruitcake

                  An ad hominem attack would be one on you personally. Global City was criticizing your assertion, not you. If you are going to use Latin words, please use them correctly. If you want many examples of ad hominem attacks, just pop over to the Grauniad, and see what vile and insulting attacks are made by left wing fanatics on ordinary people that just don’t agree with their PC agenda.

                • E Roberts

                  Ah yes, the excuse UKIPites always wheel out – “the nasty Left started it”.

                  I know my Latin well enough and maintain that his was an ad hominem attack. You can split hairs any way you like but calling my assertion “nothing more than puerile and childish finger pointing” goes beyond questioning the contents of what I said. If you can’t see that, you are in my opinion deliberately choosing not to see it.

                  Btw, I appreciated the healthy dose of sneering condescension about Latin usage; guess it’s OK so long as you’re not doing so on a UKIPite, because only the out-of-touch metropolitan elite sneers condescendingly at the People’s Army…

                • Extoryfruitcake

                  So “puerile and childish finger pointing” is a personal attack, but “sneering condescension” is not. It would appear that your logic is as flawed as your Latin. This is a comment on your logic and your Latin, not on you personally.

                • E Roberts

                  No, my logic is just not intelligible to you, it seems.

                  The attack on me was baseless and founded solely on Global City’s disagreement with it; therefore ad hominem.

                  By contrast, my description of your attack on me as “sneering condescension” was just that – descriptive; or perhaps I have it all wrong and the phrase “If you are going to use Latin words, please use them correctly.” was not in any way, shape or form intended to convey self-satisfied superiority and sarcasm?

                • Extoryfruitcake

                  This discussion is clearly going nowhere, as you are determined to classify everything as being a personal attack on you. I will therefore move on to debate with a more worthy opponent. Farewell.

                • E Roberts

                  PMSL. All I did was call you on your rather superior attack on a perceived (mistaken, as it happens) weakness in Latin.

                  I do appreciate the farewell and will respond in kind.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Hmmmm, a whole lot of the electorate seems to disagree with you, lad. That is, unless you think 1/4 or so is racist, anti-political, rubbish-headed, tiresome, policy-less, and whatever other slurs you’ve cast on them.

                • E Roberts

                  I was answering a question about where racists had been hiding. i didn’t say all UKIP supporters are racist, which is what you seem to have concluded from my posts.

                  Nor did I accuse the electorate (even 1/4 of it) of being anti-political, rubbish-headed, tiresome or policy-less.

                  If it’s not the booze, suggest we get you back to school, lad; you need some remedial lessons in reading and comprehension.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Hmmmm, so you’re casting slurs at UKIP, but the 1/4 of the electorate who vote for them aren’t racist, anti-political, rubbish-headed, tiresome, policy-less, and whatever other slurs you’ve cast on UKIP?

                  Well, that’s good to know., I think.

                  But how does that work, lad? How do all these people, UKIP voters, escape unscathed, even voting for these evil hate merchants as you’ve pointed out?

                  And why should you socialists escape unscathed, if BNP joins with you as they do?

                • E Roberts

                  I’m no socialist and won’t be goaded by repeated references to BNP. I’m only responding to you because you’re rather funny.

                  And yes, people vote for a party for all sorts of reasons. I don’t know any party whose voters endorse absolutely every party policy. And that’s all the more true of UKIP that has no policies and therefore allows tens of thousands of people to vote against this, that or the other without having to actually agree what they are voting for in UKIP.

                  At the GE, that will change and UKIP’s share of the vote will plummet.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Of course you’re a socialist, lad. You’re taking up the LibLabCon socialist line, so the tag is set. And BNP goes along with your socialism, since you brought them up.

                  I’m amused that you have no answer for your slurs against the 1/4 of the electorate voting for UKIP, lad. You better get back in the bubble for further instructions. It’s real now. You’re driving off just as many as you dolts think you’re attracting, with your bitter bile.

                  Oh, and you best tell the kidults that praying for UKIP’s vote share to drop at GE is a false god. That’s all over too. If UKIP pulls double figures, Dave’s head is going onto that spike. And they are going to pull double figures, lad.

                • global city

                  Not only did you come to the wrong conclusion when you called me a ukipper then you say that UKIP don’t have a policy that you had previously condemned as ‘racist’.

                  I said your assertion was puerile and childish, not you….. but, if the cap fits?

                • E Roberts

                  Where did I condemn their ‘policy’ (not that they have such a thing) as racist?

                • global city

                  Here perhaps?

                  “I suspect UKIP’s ‘appealing’ policies on immigration also persuaded those most persuadable in other parties to join the People’s Army.”

                  I did actually ask you to set out what you consider ‘unappealing’ about UKIP’s proposals… granted that they are clear but not yet formulated as a policy in a manifesto.

                  I do actually apologise if you took my comments and an insult… I do try not to descend into that sort of stuff, but it’s just so easy to do so on’tinternet!

                  in the meantime, have a look at this video, as includes most of the things of importance, with regards to the EU…. lots of things that UKIP rather neglected in the recent elections.
                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DV3nOAg87R8

                • E Roberts

                  I appreciate your comments and likewise aver that I try to steer clear of the nasty stuff. I make a rule of not casting the first stone though I once did cause a discussion to kick off with a sarcastic aside which I apologised for; as you say, things get out of hand and too many people type in haste (and usually don’t repent).

                  I have to get ready for a no-socialists-allowed black tie ball now so will leave discussion of UKIP’s immigration views for another time, but in short I believe strongly that abridging immigration tends to harm a country’s prospects, rather than helping them.

                • global city

                  Fair do’s…. hope you enjoy your do!

                • E Roberts

                  Ta; it was pretty special and we raised lots of money for the school.

                • global city

                  Good one! I haven’t been to such an event for ages!

                • E Roberts

                  me neither; every time I go to a BT event, it takes 5 mins to relearn how to tie a bow tie – they come around every 2 years on average!

                • global city

                  LoL!

                  It’s been that long for me now that if I ever get invited to one again I’ll have to get one of those ready made ones, with a clip or a lazzie band!

                • E Roberts

                  I came close to that last night!

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …BNP is socialist, like you, lad.

                • E Roberts

                  So is FN in France; and so are many of the supporters Nigel has rallied to the UKIP banner these past few months.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  No, you won’t find many of you socialists in UKIP, lad. That’s your fantasy.

                • E Roberts

                  I didn’t say in UKIP, I said among the supporters recently rallied to UKIP. Read; comprehend.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  That’s how you can always identify you socialists, you always back and fill and blow smoke out of your pants cuffs. It’s always about semantics.

                  That’s why BNP gravitates to you, I suppose. You types provide them rhetorical cover.

                • E Roberts

                  I thought I’d been quite clear talking about supporters Nigel has rallied to the UKIP banner these past few months. Never mind.

                  Funny how I’ve met more hair-splitters and semantics-advocates among UKIPites than anywhere else, mind.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  You’ve been a whiny socialist, lad. It’s the only thing you’ve been quite clear on.

                  You should get clear on this though: In 11.0 months, Call Me Dave’s head is going to be mounted on a spike.

                • E Roberts

                  Troll. 🙂

                  I’m off out now, lad, to a nice socialist black tie ball. have fun playing on the computer tonight.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Troll right back at you, lad.

              • Extoryfruitcake

                You didn’t object to them when they supported your party, so why now?
                You can’t stop people voting for you in a democracy. Far left supporters are extremely nasty people, and they probably vote Labour. That isn’t Labour’s fault (although much else is).

              • Fergus Pickering

                Oh dearie me. You are too pure to live.

              • Tim Reed

                “There was a time when I might have considered voting UKIP, but now I really wouldn’t want to be associated with it. The policies might not be racist / anti immigration but it seems quite a few supporters are.”

                Judging an entire political party by a few of its more vociferous supporters is not a sensible or informed approach to guide you at the ballot box. Consider the policies (which are on their way in detail in the autumn), rather than the rhetoric from those who shout from the sidelines.

            • E Roberts

              Welcome to the real world – slander and explicit or implicit ridicule have been the mainstay of coverage of the LibDems, the Green Party and often the nationalists over the past 2 decades.

              I do recall supporters of those parties on occasion making the point about unfair coverage but none ever bleated as much about it as UKIPites, with their persecution complex, seem to.

              Nor do I recall much support from the kinds of people now rallying to UKIP for fair representation in the MSM of those marginal parties, so you can probably forget about any sympathy now that it’s your turn to face the media onslaught.

              • the viceroy’s gin

                Who needs or wants sympathy? I doubt UKIP is going to be offering much sympathy when Call Me Dave’s head is mounted on a spike, 11.0 months from now.

                • E Roberts

                  I assume that’s a metaphor, or are you one of those UKIP supporters who genuinely seems to believe that a revolution is imminent?

                  In any event, the Conservatives will win the next election and remain in government, with or without a coalition partner.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  No, the Camerloons won’t win the next election, as yesterday’s results once again confirmed, and Dave’s head will go on a spike immediately following (or sooner, if they’re smart, which they’re not).

                • E Roberts

                  Sadly for you, we’re just not the revolutionary sort. That character is reflected in the way we vote and the maths works out in favour of DC, not EM.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  No, the maths don’t work out for the Camerloons, lad. Sorry.

                • E Roberts

                  1. Time will tell.
                  2. Please stop calling me ‘lad’; it’s patronising and if I were to use the term in discussions with UKIPites, I’d be accused of being a patronising, sneering member of the metropolitan elite.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Time has already spoken, lad. It spoke again last night.

                  In 11.0 months, Call Me Dave’s head is going to be mounted on a spike.

          • global city

            would that be the negative hype, like the MSM smear campaign?

        • HookesLaw

          Keep up the pretence. Its not long ago this seat was labour. When Mercer first took the seat it was with 46% of the vote.
          The speccy put it well, dodged the banana skin.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            This was the Camerluvvies’ 44th strongest seat, lad. If they had to put this much into it to hold it, then they are doomed, and 11.0 months from now, Call Me Dave’s head is headed for a spike. .

          • MrsDBliss

            How long ago? 1997? 16 years? After a final disastrous turn of the Tory party? And Labour now? Third, a decrease in vote share with UKIP up 22%. It’s not a dodged banana skin. They’ve slipped and slides Algol over the place and only just managed to keep their dignity.

      • global city

        His crystal ball broke….. C’mon Kitty, that was a stupid point for you to make.

    • Kitty MLB

      On most political blogsites over the past few months
      we have had nothing but the new dawn of UKIP,
      if that is not spin then I don’t know what is.
      And as a Conservative who sympathizises with UKIP
      this drove me up the wall.
      And the Spectator are always fair.

      • Adam Carter

        No. We’ve had coverage of UKIP, but most of it has been negative, then people like me come on and counter it.

        • Count Dooku

          The scrutiny is what you’d expect for a party that wins a third of the national vote. The only party that seems to get away with it is Labour.

        • HookesLaw

          What a pity it was negative… If the kippers in question had not said their nutjob things the papers would not have had to bother.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            …and if your boy Dave wasn’t a socialist nutter, his head wouldn’t be going on a spike in 11.0 months.

    • DaveTheRave

      Well said, spot on.

    • robertsonjames

      And we all (except the Kippers anyway) understand that by-elections are much more fertile ground for those seeking to capitalise on protest votes from grumpy electorates. The public know they can have a free hit at an incumbent Government in a by-election without risking letting in a dubious Opposition: that’s why it’s traditionally “fill your boots” time for minor parties.

      General elections, however, are quite different. Voters know it’s a binary choice between two main parties to form the Government: minor parties always get squeezed.

      The bottom line is that the Kippers haven’t yet come close to winning a seat even at a by-election in 20 years of trying. In follows that only the utterly delusional among them (and there seem to be quite a few around) can seriously believe they’ll have a significant bloc of MPs next year and be influencing the formation of a Government at the next general election.

      If you don’t believe me, watch what Farage and Kipper HQ do (as opposed to what they feel obliged to say). The clearest sign that they genuinely think they are likely to win a single seat would be announcing Farage’s candidacy for it. And yet still we wait for him to declare a target constituency. That, dear Kippers, is because the more astute blazers at HQ privately recognise something the army of sitting-room blazer-wearers who dominate on the Internet don’t understand: there still isn’t a seat anywhere that UKIP can be confident of winning.

      • wudyermucuss

        Unless they keep making 22% swings of course.
        And they are a new party.
        It’s almost as if you support the current status quo.
        The point is,millions don’t.
        Despite the massive negative media narrative against UKIP.

        • global city

          When people see a well rounded, aspirational manifesto that support will firm up, and many of the idiots who fell for the MSM/establishment trashing job will decide to back them too!

        • robertsonjames

          You’re not listening. Instead you’re concentrating on shooting the messenger and embroidering conspiracy theories which might be very comforting but in practice will take you no closer to winning an MP.

          No Kipper candidate can expect to get as big a swing in a general election as in a by-election for the reasons I laid out: if you’re still not winning any by-elections, and you’re clearly not even coming close, you urgently need to downgrade your expectations for May 2015 accordingly.

          Indeed, no seats at all for UKIP remains a very real risk (with some academic experts, who know a whole lot more about electoral mechanics and political statistics than you do, reckoning you’d need to be pushing well over 30% in a constituency in order to have a good chance of winning it). That is precisely why, as I also said, even the party’s best chance for taking a seat remains unwilling to commit to a particular target.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            UKIP just won a national election, lad. All of your certain statements are proven false, by that alone.

            • HookesLaw

              In a euroelection where their policy was to leave, 73% voted against them. In a Westminster election the electorate voted the best way they saw to keep them out. Its quite likely the same thing will happen in 2015. UKIP will struggle to gain a concensus in any seat to give them a victory anywhere.
              They could still however let in a europhile labour party, led by a crypto Marxist.
              Lad.

              • the viceroy’s gin

                Yes, you socialist LibLabCon clones are as one, we know that, lad. You vote together, as all you socialists do. But good of you to finally admit you’re a socialist, laddie. It feels good for you to get that out, no doubt.

                Now, in 2015, the only certainty is that your boy Dave’s head is going to be mounted on a spike. That is all.

                But as you’re so concerned that your fellow socialist Millipedes might get in, even though I can’t see why you would be as you just admitted they are your co-socialists in arms, then I suggest you not split the UKIP vote in 2015.

        • HookesLaw

          You are losing track of the fact that the voters knew a big swing would still not unseat the Tories. In a closer election the electorate would consider their vote accordingly.
          What you need to look at are the people from all shades who saw fit to look at the options and chose to vote Tory, giving them a respectable 45% of the vote.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            …including a large count of their socialist LibLab soulmates.

            You know how you socialists like to stick together, against we conservatives.

      • E Roberts

        Absolutely. Spot. On.

    • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

      Congratulations to the EU, hopefully the rest of the country wants to remain British.

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