Coffee House

Notes from a Tory foot soldier in Newark

4 June 2014

11:57 AM

4 June 2014

11:57 AM

Newark has become a destination for Conservative campaigners demoralised by the local & European results. Around this Nottinghamshire market town there are whispers of victory in the by-election on Thursday. If Robert Jenrick wins big, then the momentum created by that, and the effect upon Conservative volunteers will be great. Defeat or narrow victory here could cause some to doubt their faith.

The operation for the Conservative party, led by George Hollingbery, has been impressive. Evidence of how seriously the party takes Newark is in front of any volunteer: the wall to the right of the entrance is one long roll of honour, the signatures and dates of MPs who have campaigned. It’s like the Top Gear test track board. A show of solidarity by the parliamentary party, it creates a sense of fun: the feeling you get from knowing that you might be part of the winning team.

The roll of honour (Photo: Rupert Myers)The roll of honour (Photo: Rupert Myers)


As a foot soldier for the day, I was in and back out again with my instructions in minutes. The campaign office is geared to handle large numbers and they have to be. Thursday’s visit by the PM brought a surge of volunteers and members of the press. Keeping the show on the road on days like that is currently one of the bigger challenges for the campaign team. Hundreds of activists are expected to turn up for Thursday’s Get Out The Vote operation, crucial because much of the Conservative support is scattered in smaller outlying villages. If on Thursday they lack enough volunteers to ‘knock up’ voters, then this entire effort may have been wasted.

If Newark shows Ukip support settling back down, it will help to make the argument that voters hold those we send to the Commons to a higher standard. Send the clowns to Brussels by all means, but we’re more discerning when it comes to Westminster. This weekend saw the arrival of the Road Trip 2015 campaigners, hundreds of students bussed up for a weekend of campaigning, curry, and a fair bit to drink. Many of the rising stars involved in this team frequent outfits like the Young Briton’s Foundation, a group straddling the libertarian overlap between the Conservatives and Ukip. We know that young talent is jumping ship from Ukip. Every sip taken from their young activist base leaves the glass a little emptier, and what remains becomes mostly backwash.

I’m not sure how much the people of Newark can take of this. Several residents handed back the literature as they had received enough already. At one doorstep I was queuing behind a local Labour canvasser, who took my leaflet from me and posted it through the door. He thought that Labour would drop a place and come third. Despite much talk of Ukip I saw only one lawn sign, and one fifty-something man driving down the high street on a cream-coloured touring motorbike with purple flags fluttering from it. The biker vote in Newark does not seem sizeable. If it had been a four-wheel drive or a flash caravan, I’d have been more concerned.

If the Conservatives were to lose Newark then the game would be up. If Jenrick wins by only a narrow majority then many volunteers will despair. This by-election has support that less winnable seats will never see next year. Children walked past me in the high street carrying Conservative helium-filled balloons. Unlike Wythenshawe or Eastleigh, there is the sense that this is going well, and that volunteers are enjoying themselves.

Newark is a chance for volunteers to press the reset button after the local elections, to show voters that they can win in the fight that counts. For the people of Newark this is a chance to react to the European election results: is that one cheeky pint of Ukip support almost finished? If volunteers are persuaded to make the pilgrimage to Newark on Thursday one final time to find those voters down long country tracks, it will be a huge boost for the grass roots, 335 days out from the general election.

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Show comments
  • bob

    If the people of Newark want to be Muppets kow-towing to the E.U. they will vote conservative, but if they want a say in their own country they will vote UKIP, lets see what happens on the day,

  • LucieCabrol

    Vote UKIP..get Labour , I’m afraid to say….because I do think the eu gravy train needs its bonnet taken off, a couple of carriages removed, the axels greased, the driver changed, the ….you get the message.

  • Robin Wilde

    Always a bit of a risk posting on here (often get rather angry responses) but I thought it might be interesting to leave some Notes from a Labour Foot Soldier in Newark.

    As I usually campaign in Sheffield where the political climate is much kinder to us (even in Clegg’s seat) it was a bit demoralising to get a few really hostile responses. It’s odd though – canvassers of all parties seem to get on quite well and I had several pleasant chats with both Tory and UKIP campaigners around the town centre. It’s more the residents who tend to be nasty, although I suspect they’re very sick of being door knocked.

    We’ve had a fairly good turnout of activists considering it’s not exactly a priority target, and on Saturday when I was there we definitely had over a hundred. Unfortunately we can’t muster the money the Tories can to ship in campaigners or the UKIP ability to concentrate its efforts in one place, so we’ve been fighting an uphill battle to get material out and canvass enough people.

    As to who I think will win, almost certainly the Conservatives. Labour will come third, and hopefully that will be with a stable or slightly increased vote share but we are being squeezed. A lot of Labour voters are splitting off to vote tactically, but actually they might as well not bother – the numbers voting Tory to stop UKIP are about balancing the numbers voting UKIP to punish the Tories, thus not affecting the result at all.

    Anyway, best of luck to all the candidates, and hopefully we’ll have a clean last few hours of campaigning.

  • bluegold

    “Send the clowns to Brussels by all means, but we’re more discerning when it comes to Westminster”.

    Yes indeed, that’s why it tends to be awash with crooks, conmen and women, kiddie fiddlers and deviants…pray tell Tory I couldn’t see any mention of why there was a by-election in Newark, did I miss it or was it just a subtle oversight by not mentioning the previous corrupt (Tory) occupant?

  • Linc

    Those who voted in the MEP and local council elections will probably vote the same way for their MP.

    As reported in the Telegraph, the tory candidate Robert Jenrick is delibrately being shielded by tory minders from local journalists who want to question his Newark credentials. It seems oddly undemocratic that local press and the public can’t question his connection to the local area that he is suppose to represent.

    As reported by another newspaper, Robert Jenrick lives and work in London and rented his Newark house only 6 months ago when he was announced as a Tory candidate for the area. Need I say more?

    No amount of canvasing and fleeting visits from the Tory big guns will paint over the fact Robert Jenrick is a rich kid from London with no connection to the area.

    Some people would call him a Tory puppet sent from London to represent the interest of those London elites as suppose to representing the people of Newark…

  • freddiethegreat

    I’m not from Newark or the UK, but do I detect a note of desperation here – as well as slagging UKIP supporters as ‘backwash’?

  • english_pensioner

    If the Tories can’t win Newark in spite of their previous huge majority and the amount of effort they’ve expended, they can wave good bye at the next general election.

    • Denis_Cooper

      In 2010 the Tories got 54% of the votes in Newark, arguably they will have to significantly exceed that in Newark in 2015 to have any chance of winning a Commons majority.

      Alternatively they were 32% ahead of Labour on 22%, and arguably they will have to do better than that In this constituency in 2015.

      Or again UKIP only got 4% in Newark in 2010 and if they got seven times that in this by-election, as predicted by the Survation opinion poll, then that should terrify all of the old parties.

      • english_pensioner

        I would like to see UKIP win, but I doubt if they will. As you say, I hope they will get sufficient votes to make the other parties think, particularly those Tories who are marginal seats who will need to retain their seats if the Tories hope to win a Commons majority. If UKIP do well, the Tories may be pushed into some form of alliance for fear of losing the marginals they hold and failing to gain any others.

  • evad666

    Thankfully the internet provides a rich source of data on the behaviors of the Rt Honorable Ladies and Gentlemen.

  • evad666
  • CraigET

    The Liberal Democrats are neither liberal nor democratic; The Labour Party are led by the son of a communist academic and his clique of champagne socialists; The Conservative Party, pull the other one, Burke would turn in his grave; UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party) a party that supports both independent thinking and independence from the EU.

    What you see is what you get with UKIP, that is why people support them Rupert. Your political tribalism is for fools who follow.

  • RodPolisher

    The people of Newark should take this opportunity to give the Tories a good, hard kick in the ballots!

    The Tories have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Newark, They won’t be able to do that across 650 seats at the May 2015 General Election. The dam will burst and there will be UKIP MPs in a year’s time.

  • SemiPartisanSam

    The fact that the David Cameron felt the need to press-gang his entire cabinet and parliamentary party to go campaign in Newark for fear of losing the seat means that UKIP have essentially won regardless of who tops the poll on Thursday:

    The Conservatives do not have the resources to invade every single target or marginal constituency en masse to press home their organisational advantage over the new insurgent party in the 2015 general election. At that point, it will revert to a battle of ideals, policies and trust – which leaves UKIP in a much stronger position to pick up seats in Westminster.

  • blingmun

    They won’t be able to send ALL their activists to every marginal and every safe seat in the lead up to the general election.

    All Cameron has proven is that he believes UKIP can win safe Tory seats.

  • DaveTheRave

    I hope the Tories lose their deposit along with Labour and LibDems. The Tories go on about reducing the ‘national’ debt but don’t blink an eyelid about putting students in perpetual debt… unless you’re one the elite who can afford to pay it off. I want Ukip first, Monster Raving Looney second…

    • Graham6777

      What was he supposed to do, bankrupt the country? He wasn’t the one that accrued the debt that forced him to make cuts.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        He didn’t make any “cuts”, lad.

    • Tony_E

      We don’t really have a ‘student loan’ system – it’s a grant and graduate tax scheme under a misconceived name.

      It doesn’t matter how much money you have when you start – you are not allowed to bypass the system, and you pay back purely according to earnings post grad.

    • Makroon

      I think you should vote Salmond – he is the only politician promising free university education.

  • FellowHQ

    A typical Tory take on things. Look what we can do – just before the election we flood the area with young types, who might otherwise be chuggers. They’re not local, they don’t know the issues that people care about in Newark but who cares? The locals aren’t people, they’re just numbers, votes.
    And when we’ve won their vote – we’ll be gone. We’ll ignore you from then on and leave you with another MP who has done nothing (entrepreneur? yeah right), isn’t from the area (just moved in and will probably move out again) and who has never done anything apart from politics. Aren’t we great? Vote for us!

    • SemiPartisanSam

      Very well said. A conservative victory under these circumstances will be practically meaningless.

  • Smithersjones2013

    Putting aside the puerile wit and infantile sneers and
    smears (a common characteristic amongst Tories) and the lack of any definitive
    statement of Tory victory one sentence sums up the whole article:

    This by-election has support that less winnable seats will never see
    next year.

    If the Tories cannot win this by a large majority and restrict UKIP to less
    than a 5% swing from the Tories (and even the Ashcroft poll suggests its a
    swing of 18 points) then alarm bells and sirens should be going off in half the
    Tory associations across the country. The Tories have to win big to even begin
    to dream of saving their hides in 2015.

    As for UKIP both the Ashcroft poll and the Comres poll suggest that they are polling something in the region of their Euro polling levels (27%). If that’s the case only the most dim-witted and risible of Tories (or their bovine flunkies in the MSM) would declare the bubble burst. In fact given the polls only a total collapse of
    their vote back to well below their council UNS projection would suggest the
    idea that their popularity was flagging. If UKIP poll over 6% at the general
    election then the chances of a Tory government are minimal. UKIP are on course
    to poll way above that. only a miracle will save the Tories.

    • Makroon

      Really ? So what happened to the UKIP campaign in the North, which we were told was due to strip out Labour’s white, working-class support ?

      • 1Adam2014

        in Rotherham several Labour Councillors were thrown out by UKIP

  • Sapporo

    Rupert Myers on the Eastleigh by-election:
    “No constituency will received the resources come the general election that the voters were subjected to in Eastleigh, a fact which will doubtless dilute UKIP’s ability to perform as strongly. I have never seen an election in which the voters were so saturated with information: usually you get more than the odd household where they don’t even know that it’s taking place.”
    Well, that prophecy didn’t last long

    “Whilst the writers of Westminster decide what this all means for 2015, we would do well to remember that by-elections are unusual creatures, and that people use them to send different messages from the ones they send at general elections.”
    Results only mean anything when the Tories win (or are likely to win), obviously.

  • FrankS2

    With less than a year to a general election, Newark voters might regard this by-election s a good opportunity for a protest vote. There’s a crumb of comfort the Tories might welcome if tomorrow’s vote doesn’t go their way.

  • FrankS2

    With less than a year to a general election, Newark voters might regard this by-election s a good opportunity for a protest vote. There’s a crumb of comfort the Tories might welcome if tomorrow’s vote doesn’t go their way.

  • the viceroy’s gin


    “…335 days out from the general election.”


    …at which point your boy Call Me Dave is going to have his head mounted on a spike, Mr. Myers.


    • southerner

      ….along with the rest of the socialist Camerloons so we can begin the process of getting our party back.

  • Brigantian

    When I saw the headline I was looking forward to a humorous description of the way both sides were canvassing in a rural constituency with every conceivable mode of transport at their disposal. The article is a real disappointment.

    • Makroon

      Nope, it is a cunning ploy to get all the Kippers ranting away on here, and to stop them canvassing in Newark.

  • Brigantian

    The real story in Newark is that Labour voters have been told to stay at home and not vote tactically for UKIP to defeat the Tories. This means turn out may be unusually low in a constituency where Labour voters already regard voting as a token effort. Most politically well informed voters have already pledged support, and in some instances voted, for UKIP. The result will to a large measure be determined by a handful of people based on local issues.

    • Hello

      Oh, yeah? Someone’s going door to door telling Labour voters to batten the hatches on Thursday, are they? “They’ll be strange folk about, it’s best you don’t open your door”

      That’s the real story. Yeh! And I’m not just being sarcastic.

      • Brigantian

        Precisely that. You should get out more and talk to people.

      • itdoesntaddup

        I assume this comes from a secret wing of the Labour party that will then use the result to attack Miliband?

        • Wessex Man

          could well be, you know what they’re like.

    • Ooh!MePurse!


      • Brigantian

        Left it in the UKIP Campaign Office – you could drop in and ask them for it. Better make sure you have heavy lifting equipment though.

        • Ooh!MePurse!

          So none then. Just another silly Ukip paranoid invention.

  • Rhoda Klapp8

    Allay the fears and suspicions of the voting public by showing that a rich guy dropped in by a well-resourced party can always win a by-election?

    • the viceroy’s gin

      Allay the fears and suspicions of the Cameroon poshboys, that if they lose this by-election, after throwing everything at it including the kitchen sink and the kitchen sink from the servant’s quarters, that it is going to see them run out of government now rather than later.

  • colliemum

    Seems the Tory faithful are incapable of leaving well alone:

    “If Newark shows Ukip support settling back down, it will help to make the argument that voters hold those we send to the Commons to a higher standard. Send the clowns to Brussels by all means, but we’re more discerning when it comes to Westminster.”

    I’d like to know if Rupert would call Daniel Hannan a ‘clown’ to his face … or are only UKIP MEPs and candidates clowns, but Tories are evidently of ‘higher standard’, regardless of being MP or MEP?

    • Hello

      I’d say that’s a fairly decent rule of thumb.

      • colliemum

        So you think that Daniel Hannan and by extension all Tory MEPs are clowns?
        Can’t have the ‘higher standard’ for MPs without the clowns for MEPs, according to Rupert.

        • Hello

          Oh, are you trying to twist my words? Typical kipper behaviour — have you considered the Labour party? You’d probably get on.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            …well, you socialist LibLabCon clones certainly get on, as we know.

    • Bert3000

      I’d call Hannan a clown to his face. Except clowns are funny. Hannan isn’t. Ridiculous little twerp should do it.

    • 1Adam2014

      House of Commons is full of clowns Brussels full of crooks and House of Lords useless old Senile Pensioners

  • Caps Lock

    Tell me that this was written by a 12 year old!! Is this really the level that “journalism” has reached in the Spectator? I despair…

  • Mike Barnes

    Throwing the kitchen sink at a 16000 majority seat isn’t exactly cause for optimism. Shouldn’t they be winning this without even getting out of bed?

    Apparently that is not the theme though. The media storyline is that UKIP are failures unless they win here.

    • The_Missing_Think

      This is the crux of the matter.

      If more than 90% of the sixteen thousand rivets are shorn off, then the instinct for self-preservation, would suggest, an immediate leadership contest is required, to prevent the sinking of The Torytanic in 2015.

      But not so, as that would risk, an ‘unexpected event(s) flow’ into an early GE.

      And that in turn, would – post EU vote – mean UKIP MPs within months, with even Farage himself, blaspheming impertinently on the parlour floor.

      So no matter what the result, they’ll avoid the inevitable Westminster breach this year, at any and all costs.

      But non-sheered connected rivets are imperative to safety, as well proven.

    • Wessex Man

      Did you expect anything else from this lot?

    • whs1954

      I see the message must have gone out from Kipper Astroturf HQ – “Right, chaps, here’s the line. The Tories had a 16,000 majority, they shouldn’t have to be campaigning hard, they should be walking this with two men and a dog delivering leaflets. Got the line? Good”

      It’s a mid term by election four years into a Government. Of course the Tories will lose vote share – it’s inevitable. And UKIP are two weeks on from an admittedly major triumph. The idea that the Tories campaigning hard is some of bad thing is perhaps a conceit of internet warriors who don’t know how elections are won.

      • Makroon

        Very rum bunch, the Kippers – tonnes of bile and hate poured on the Tories and Cameron, but not a dicky-bird about the real miscreants, smugly seated on the opposition front bench awaiting their expected return to power. The gang that caused almost all of the Kippers anguish and grievances are apparently above reproach.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          …that would be you LibLabCon socialists, lad.

  • Grey Wolf

    Tory foot soldier?
    Does delusion have limits? God save us!

    • the viceroy’s gin

      Well spotted. The Cameroonian poshboys know nothing about foot soldiery. As we see in Newark, they’re more like the sadistic sergeant at Fort Zinderneuf: “To the walls, you pigs!”

      • Alexandrovich

        To continue your analogy Viceroy, with Cameron playing Donlevy to the hilt, next May they’ll be propping up the dead bodies on the battlements.

  • Raddiy

    it is all rather pathetic really, 150 years as a party of government, reduced to throwing the kitchen sink, and all its remaining resources to try and defend one of its safest seats.

    The problem for the Conservative Party whatever happens on Thursday, is that UKIP will still be there on Friday morning, and every subsequent Friday morning growing in strength, all the way to next May.

    • Denis_Cooper

      No, no, no!

      Even if UKIP gets more than the share of the votes it got in the EU Parliament elections but doesn’t actually win the seat then according to the Tories and their friends and allies in the media that will be proof that THE UKIP BUBBLE HAS BURST and the PEASANT’S REVOLT IS OVER etc.

      • Hello

        To be fair, the SDP was winning these by-elections in the 80s. In pretty similar circumstances the SDP, a left-wing party, was taking a larger share of the vote from the Tories than Ukip is today.

        Shirley Williams got 49% of the vote in Crosby in 81, from a base of 0, because of the death of the previous MP. Ukip is coming from a base of about 4%, following the resignation of a corrupt MP, and still struggling to hit 30%.

        Shirley still lost the seat in the next 83 GE.

        • Denis_Cooper

          And a right lying b***h she was and is.

          • Kaine

            Never trust a liberal.

        • Brigantian

          The analogy is misplaced for a number of reasons. First being that the SDP rose to prominence by claiming to be ‘the true Labour Party’ in an age when terrestrial television dominated public debate and they had preferential support from both the BBC and EU (EEC as was). There was also no common consciousness of Britishness. Middle aged people who were growing rich fast with the North Sea Oil boom did not give a fig for the millions of young unemployed. Tories in marginal Labour constituencies were actively encouraged to vote SDP.
          UKIP by contrast is a strange grass roots party comprising activists from all levels and sides of British politics, as well as millionaires and disaffected unemployed youth. UKIP has managed to grow despite deliberate attempts by the MSM and all established political parties to marginalise it. UKIP is growing in a age of widespread unrest across Europe as people wake up to discover that they live in a new Mega State run by social engineering of an extraordinary sinister and evil kind.

        • Smithersjones2013

          “To be fair”, the SDP was led by four senior former members of the Labour Party (Williams being one of them) all who had been government ministers in the previous two decades and all who had significant doorstep recognition as a result. The shocks were when the likes of Williams and Jenkins lost their seats not the other way around..

          Comparisons between UKIP and the SDP are risible.

          • Sapporo

            Also, the SDP were a mostly middle-class, elitist movement. Whereas, UKIP is driven by the lower classes and the disenfranchised. It’s a peasants revolt.

            • the viceroy’s gin

              …well, more a populist movement than “peasant”.

            • Kaine

              A peasants’ revolt led by a commodities trader and bankrolled by Paul Sykes and Stuart Wheeler. Truly proletarian.

      • Smithersjones2013

        No I don’t think they will unless its actually true because
        the bigger story is whether or not the result suggests Cameron is on course to be returned to Downing Street. If he is (they
        win Newark by a distance) then yes it will be as you say and ‘Labour in turmoil type’ headlines. However if UKIP poll in the mid 20’s and the swing from Tory to UKIP is something close to 20% then the story has to be about Tory problems. There are just too many left of centre media outlets to let Cameron off the hook if his election prospects are not looking good.

        Tories can try and spin a bad result if they like but they will just look

        • the viceroy’s gin

          After all this clamor and spent resources, if the Cameroons take anything less than 50%, it’s weakness and trouble for them.

          If they take less than 40%, they are doomed.

      • Wessex Man

        We know of course that there is no bubble, it’s the start of a National Party with it’s membership increasing by the day, whilst the garbage that is the other three parties are losing members hand over fist. To see the desperate measures being taken in a very safe Tory seat shows they unfortunately are waking up to a very real threat.

        We shall however overcome and not worry about halfwits febble boasting here or anywhere else, it’s too late for them now!

        Chin up Dennis!

        • whs1954

          It will never become a genuine national party until it stops attracting as candidates all the cranks in the world who can’t engage their brain before opening their mouths, and until it stops thinking ‘braying man in pub holding/drinking foaming pint’ constitutes the whole argument against EU membership.

      • Maidmarrion

        Scotland has been suffering the same attacks , the same media rubbishing or exaggerating to suit the establishment agenda – no-one seems to care and all south of the border are prepared to believe the
        ” Salmond ate my hamster headlines ” unquestioningly.
        Perhaps now some will think to question democracy and the media.

  • Athelwulf

    Myers is talking up a Tory win. His three key statements for me are:

    ‘If the Conservatives were to lose Newark then the game would be up. If Jenrick wins by only a narrow majority then many volunteers will despair. This by-election has support that less winnable seats will never see next year.’

    There are various elements in play here – eg, will the over-active Tory door-stepping become counter-productive? And Denis C’s comment about Lord Ashcroft’s poll and the uncritical way the MSM has deployed it: does that influence the Newark electorate?

    Meanwhile UKIP campaigners put their views:

  • Denis_Cooper

    Why bother with the actual election, when you can just produce rigged opinion
    polls showing how the UKIP bubble has burst, which the anti-UKIP media can
    then uncritically publicise rather than dismissing them as just so much more
    false Tory propaganda?

    • Hello

      Awww. Hug?

      • Denis_Cooper


    • telemachus

      They have had their high water mark
      The public have looked over the cliff and do not like what they see
      Happily Farage is short sighted
      He is about to crash down the cliff

    • whs1954

      What a terribly bitter thing to say. There are rules in place to stop organisations “rigging” their opinion polls. The UKiP bubble is a protest vote that comes along when European elections do, now it will burst until 2019. Sorry you don’t like the truth.

      • Denis_Cooper

        We’ll see tonight what the truth is.

        Meanwhile, apparently the rules do not prevent Lord Ashcroft deciding to make an “adjustment” to his poll findings which involves distributing those people who don’t know or won’t say how they will vote in this election in 2014 among the parties on the basis of their shares of the votes in 2010, 54 added to the Tory total for every 4 added to the UKIP total. Or did you miss that little dodge?

        • whs1954

          The adjustments are what happens to get a fair sample.

          Let me explain. Say you went on the streets of Derby, say, and took a poll, and 70% of the people say they’re going to vote Labour in 2015. You could publish that and say Labour are going to bury the opposition in a landslide. But at the same time 65% of them say they voted Labour in 2010. Labour didn’t get 65% of the vote nationwide in 2010, didn’t even get 65% of the vote in Derby in 2010. So you make an adjustment.

          Perfectly standard methodology, and if it’s disclosed (as it has been here), it works.

          If you don’t make those adjustments you get the types of polls that came out in 1994, 1995, 1996, showing that Labour would win a ludicrous majority in 1997 but also showing Labour had won a massive majority in 1992.

          • Denis_Cooper

            No, it is clear on his own admission the “spiral of silence adjustment” made by Ashcroft is not “standard methodology” because he says that Survation didn’t do it and that may be why his result is more favourable to the Tories.


            “This poll shows a bigger Tory lead than was found by Survation in their by-election poll published at the weekend. Interestingly, though, the two polls put UKIP within a point of each other. This would seem to suggest that the “spiral of silence adjustment”, used in my poll but not in Survation’s, made little difference in UKIP’s case. The adjustment works by re-allocating a proportion of those who refuse to state or claim they don’t know how they will vote to the party they voted for at the last election. It was introduced to help account for “shy” voters who were reluctant to admit their allegiance, a problem which had the effect of seriously skewing polls at previous elections. The similarity of the UKIP share in polls that did and did not use this adjustment suggests that there is nothing shy about the party’s voters; they do not coyly claim to be undecided.”

            Eh, no, it’s because only 4% of the indeterminates are added to the UKIP total, that’s why it made little difference in UKIP’s case, while 54% were added to the Tory total and that pushed the Tories up significantly.

            It’s obviously nonsense: he asks people in Newark how they will vote in this election and finds from those who give a definite answer that attitudes have shifted massively since the general election in 2010, but then he assumes that this massive shift of attitudes won’t apply to those who can’t or won’t say how they intend to vote.

          • 1Adam2014

            vote Labour = Mass Immigration + the IMF

        • 1Adam2014

          why would You trust Tory Lackey Ashcroft