X

Create an account to continue reading.

Registered readers have access to our blogs and a limited number of magazine articles
For unlimited access to The Spectator, subscribe below

Registered readers have access to our blogs and a limited number of magazine articles

Sign in to continue

Already have an account?

What's my subscriber number?

Subscribe now from £1 a week

Online

Unlimited access to The Spectator including the full archive from 1828

Print

Weekly delivery of the magazine

App

Phone & tablet edition of the magazine

Spectator Club

Subscriber-only offers, events and discounts
 
View subscription offers

Already a subscriber?

or

Subscribe now for unlimited access

ALL FROM JUST £1 A WEEK

View subscription offers

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

Thank you for creating an account – Your subscriber number was not recognised though. To link your subscription visit the My Account page

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

X

Login

Don't have an account? Sign up
X

Subscription expired

Your subscription has expired. Please go to My Account to renew it or view subscription offers.

X

Forgot Password

Please check your email

If the email address you entered is associated with a web account on our system, you will receive an email from us with instructions for resetting your password.

If you don't receive this email, please check your junk mail folder.

X

It's time to subscribe.

You've read all your free Spectator magazine articles for this month.

Subscribe now for unlimited access – from just £1 a week

You've read all your free Spectator magazine articles for this month.

Subscribe now for unlimited access

Online

Unlimited access to The Spectator including the full archive from 1828

Print

Weekly delivery of the magazine

App

Phone & tablet edition of the magazine

Spectator Club

Subscriber-only offers, events and discounts
X

Sign up

What's my subscriber number? Already have an account?

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

Thank you for creating an account – Your subscriber number was not recognised though. To link your subscription visit the My Account page

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

X

Your subscriber number is the 8 digit number printed above your name on the address sheet sent with your magazine each week.

Entering your subscriber number will enable full access to all magazine articles on the site.

If you cannot find your subscriber number then please contact us on customerhelp@subscriptions.co.uk or call 0330 333 0050.

You can create an account in the meantime and link your subscription at a later time. Simply visit the My Account page, enter your subscriber number in the relevant field and click 'submit changes'.

Please note: Previously subscribers used a 'WebID' to log into the website. Your subscriber number is not the same as the WebID. Please ensure you use the subscriber number when you link your subscription.

Coffee House

If a men-only referendum was held, Salmond would win comfortably

15 June 2014

2:10 PM

15 June 2014

2:10 PM

Another day another poll or, rather, another day and we have another two polls on independence.

Scotland on Sunday today published an ICM poll which found support for Yes on 45 per cent and support for No on 55 per cent, a gap of ten points (once don’t knows had been excluded).

But, most importantly what this means is that the gap between the two sides has narrowed by six points in the last month.

According to ICM, the Yes side has gone up by three points since mid May while the No camp has gone down by three points.

ICM has always maintained a good reputation for the accuracy and sagacity of its polling so this one cannot be underestimated.

It definitely suggests that Alex Salmond and Co. have rediscovered their mojo and regained the momentum they lost over the Spring.

[Alt-Text]


But the Scotland on Sunday poll should also be taken alongside another poll published today by the Sunday Herald.

This one was a Panelbase poll commissioned by Yes Scotland. Because it was commissioned by one of the sides in the campaign, it probably should be approached with a little more caution than the ICM poll.

But, nevertheless, it is a proper poll on the question of independence and it too shows a narrowing of the gap.

According to Panelbase, the gap between the two sides is now a mere four points, with Yes on 48 per cent and No on 52 per cent (once undecided had been excluded).

The Yes-supporting Sunday Herald championed the poll as a ‘breakthrough’ event and, if the poll is accurate, then that is almost the case (although it is hard to avoid the feeling that a real ‘breakthrough’ event would come when – or if – the Yes camp actually managed to record a lead in a  major poll).

However, the Panelbase poll also highlighted the increasingly significant gender gap in the referendum debate.

If a men-only referendum was held, Mr Salmond would win comfortably. A total of 56 per cent of men in Scotland now support independence, as opposed to just 41 per cent of women.

Nicola Sturgeon, the Deputy First Minister, is leading the charge to convert women to the cause of independence but, so far, with only limited success.

If the unionists do win in September, then David Cameron will have the women of Scotland to thank because, at the moment, they are the only ones standing behind Mr Salmond and his independence dream.

There was one other interesting, and sobering, finding from today’s polls.

The ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday found that most Scots are starting to fear the divisive effect the referendum debate is having on the country.

Almost two fifths of Scots (38 per cent) thought the country would emerge ‘badly divided’ by the referendum contest, whatever the outcome.

Pollsters also found that 42 per cent of families were split over the issue of independence while 21 per cent admitted that discussions over the referendum with family or friends had degenerated into rows.

And we still have almost 100 days to go.

Subscribe to The Spectator today for a quality of argument not found in any other publication. Get more Spectator for less – just £12 for 12 issues.


Show comments
Close