Coffee House

Revealed: Nigel Farage’s path to Parliament

3 May 2014

10:00 AM

3 May 2014

10:00 AM

Now that Newark is a no-go, Nigel Farage will be turning his thoughts to where he will stand as an MP. He said this week that returning its first MP will be a huge breakthrough for Ukip, so choosing a seat that he can win is vital. After declining to stand in the 15 by-elections that Ukip have contested since 2010, it looks as if Farage will wait until 2015 to run for Parliament.

Coffee House understands that, ideally, Farage would like the seat to fit three criteria. Firstly, it needs to be a marginal seat. Secondly, he wants to have some local connection — he feels his lack of any roots in Buckingham caused him problems when he stood there in 2010. And thirdly, there would be no incumbent MP, lessening the challenge among the local community. Here are seven seats that either fit, or come close to fitting, Farage’s criteria:

South Thanet

Marginal: Yes — Tories took seat in 2010 with 7 per cent swing
Local connection: Yes — Farage lives in Kent
No incumbent: Yes — Laura Sandys (Con) is standing down
Electoral Calculus prediction: 66 per cent chance of CON hold

Is South Thanet the perfect choice? Once held by Jonathan Aitken (now a Ukip supporter), this seat ticks all of the boxes for Nigel Farage. It’s a two-way split between Labour and the Tories; the latter party took the seat at the last election for the first time since 1997. Ukip managed to poll 5.5 per cent in 2010, well above the party’s national vote of 3.1 per cent. As a Kent man, Farage knows the area well.

Dover

Marginal: Yes — Tories took the seat from Labour with a 5k majority
Local connection: Yes — Farage is a Kent man and an MEP for the region
No incumbent: No
Electoral Calculus prediction: None – 50% LAB gain/50% CON hold

Dover is the most marginal seat in Kent, and as the Electoral Calculus prediction shows, it could go either away at the next election. Like South Thanet, Farage has strong links to the area. However, there is an incumbent MP — Conservative Charlie Elphicke. Although he has yet to be reselected, there are no signs Elphicke will stand down.

Cannock Chase

[Alt-Text]


Marginal: Yes — Tories took the seat from Labour with a 3k majority
Local connection: Unknown
No incumbent: Yes — Aidan Burley (Con) is standing down
Electoral Calculus prediction: 58 per cent chance of LAB gain

The outgoing Tory MP Aidan Burley caused his party significant headaches over a Nazi-stag party he attended. The constituency ticks many boxes for Farage: an MP leaving in inauspicious circumstances, it is a marginal and he’s a frequent visitor to Staffordshire — he was there two weeks ago canvassing the anti-HS2 vote. However, it’s unknown whether he has any stronger links to Cannock Chase.

South Ribble

Marginal: Yes – Tories took the seat from Labour with a 5k majority in 2010
Local connection: Unknown
No incumbent: Yes, Lorraine Fullbrook (Con) is standing down
Electoral Calculus prediction: None – 51% CON hold/49% LAB gain

The Conservatives took South Ribble from Labour at the last election, who had held it since 1997. Ukip managed to just out perform their national vote, gaining 3.7 per cent in 2010. The incumbent Tory Lorraine Fullbrook cited personal reasons for standing down after just one term. It’s very marginal — Electoral Calculus currently aren’t calling it either way. Although Farage visited the seat in January, it’s unknown again whether he has any particular connection to the area.

South Cambridgeshire

Marginal: No
No incumbent: Possibly — Andrew Lansley (Con) may stand down
Local connection: Unknown
Electoral Calculus prediction: 89 per cent chance of CON hold

Although Andrew Lansley has yet to make his intentions clear, he is the bookies’ favourite to be the next EU commissioner. If he steps down, it’s one of the seats that Boris Johnson apparently has his eye on. It also works well for Farage: no incumbent, the previous MP is heading off to Europe and Ukip already have a strong presence in Cambridgeshire — Farage gave a speech in the market town of St Ives just two weeks ago. The Electoral Data blog suggests that Cambridgeshire South is one of the seat that has a favourable demographic for Ukip. Although South Cambridgeshire is Tory through and through, it’s worth noting that the Lib Dems took 34 per cent of the vote in 2010. If their vote drops significantly, it might be of interest of Farage.

Thirsk and Malton

Marginal: No
Local connection: Unknown
No incumbent: Yes — Anne McIntosh (Con) has been deselected
Electoral Calculus prediction: 93 per cent chance of CON hold

The incumbent MP Anne McIntosh has fallen out with her local party, who refused to reselect her. It’s unknown whether she will stand as an independent candidate, which could split the Tory vote. Electoral Data believe Thirsk and Malton has the second most favourable demographic for Ukip in the country. In 2010, they polled 6.6 per cent — more than double their national vote. Although it doesn’t meet Farage’s criteria, there is a lot of local anger. As one resident told the York Press, ‘If Ms McIntosh stands as an independent it will be wide open, and a mix of blue and red could well see someone wearing purple prevail.’

South Suffolk

Marginal: No
Local connection: Unknowm
No Incumbent: Yes — Tim Yeo (Con) deselected
Electoral Calculus prediction: 89 per cent chance of CON hold

With all the fuss over Tim Yeo’s deselction, Ukip could benefit from the anti-politics sentiment in the area. Farage addressed a packed-out crowd in South Suffolk last year – so look out if he returns to the area again. His party polled seven per cent here in the 2010 general election and Patrick O’Flynn, the party’s prominent head of communications, is standing in the county as an MEP.​

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Show comments
  • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

    I couldn’t believe my eyes this morning when seeing a “Vote labour”
    “campaign sign”, but I took it as a “warning sign”, make sure you cast
    your vote on May 22nd, there are still plenty of brain-dead/washed
    voters out there.

  • Jikli

    Farage is standing in Folkestone and Hythe. This is an open secret in the Town. UKIP posters are everywhere with Farage visiting the town twice in the last moth alone.

    And according to Twitter: pretty young UKIP staffer Lizzy Vaid is contesting Newark, not Elderly ‘homophobic’ white male Roger Helmer

    Where does the Spectator get such duff info form?

  • tiooooijj

    Lizzy Vaid for Newark….

  • revkevblue

    Payne, it is so nice of you to sort this out for Mr Farage.
    But he will decline for the moment, as he has more important things to do like laying down the foundations for the removal of Britain from the EUSSR.
    We feel that in all honesty Mr Farage would not be able to give his full and undivided attention to the places you have sorted out for him at the moment, until after the European elections.
    I know that the Tory mud slinging department have failed to tarnish Mr Farage’s rise in popularity, but please, surely, being Tories, they must be annealed to failure by now?
    For their sake I hope they are, because they have a lot of disappointment heading their way over the next two elections, bless them.
    so please Payne, stop being a pain by distracting our leader from his main task of saving the kingdom from an unelected foreign power.

  • Tony_E

    UKIP are now in a very odd place. Their electoral appeal to the working classes has seemed to push Miliband in to a rash of populist announcements about how he’s going to shape society by restricting the free market and regulating everything from energy prices to the location of sweets in the supermarket.

    But this plays into the hands of the Tories, from whom the majority of working class UKIP voters have generally migrated in the South and Midlands at least. These people will have long memories of the last time that Socialist policies of this kind were tried in Britain, the 70’s (and the collapse of French socialism in the 80’s and Hollande’s return to that experiment).

    There is going to be a clear choice in 2015 – Milliband, socialism, Price Controls, Stronger Public sector Unions, the new command economy and a European superstate. Or Not.

    UKIP supporters will have to decide what they want.

    • Denis_Cooper

      I want to leave the EU, and I also have long memories of the treachery of all three of the old pro-EU parties over decades, which I can often refresh through the internet. When Cameron first stepped from the shadows and into the limelight in late 2005 I knew nothing about him and therefore I was prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt, but within months it began to become clear that he is just another pro-EU Tory shyster. So my clear choice in these EU Parliament elections is between three old treacherous parties all of which are led by people who are determined to keep us in the EU at all costs, and UKIP which is constitutionally committed to getting us of the EU. So for me it has to be UKIP, warts and all, on May 22nd, and I don’t expect to change my mind for the general election either.

      • Tony_E

        Denis, I am very familiar with the anti EU arguments and tend to agree with nearly all of them.

        But if, at the general election, the UKIP vote in the south is strong enough to hand Miliband a clear majority, you can forget EVER leaving the EU. The superstate will be completed inside the next Labour term.

        And the next Labour term will not be a short one – the boundaries already hamper the chances of anyone unseating them. But they will change the rules on party funding if they get a majority to make it very difficult for any other party to receive the level of funding that it does from the public sector unions. (If you thing the UMF was dodgy – Miliband is much more ideologically pure than his idol Brown).

        Miliband is much more dangerous than Brown (who was bad enough) – a Marxist ideologue who absolutely hates free enterprise and believes like Marx, that the state should confiscate the assets of the industrious until equality is achieved.

        • Denis_Cooper

          You shouldn’t make the mistake of believing that those who control the Tory party are opposed to an EU superstate. They are not; it has always been just a matter of timing, slowing down when they find that their party members and the general public are turning against it and so have to be duped and strung along, making anti-EU noises in opposition to attract support while knowing that it is going ahead anyway despite their expressed opposition. Look at Hague, who was depicted as being a fierce “eurosceptic” when he was leading the Tories in opposition but has since shown his true colours, blue and yellow, as Foreign Secretary. Enough is enough, and over five decades of Tory deceit about the EEC/EC/EU project are more than enough.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      The Cameroons are out to shape society every bit as much as their Millipedal soulmates. The EU is a restriction on the free market, by definition, and all of LibLabCon pray at its shrine. The Cameroons also regulate energy prices, and favor strongly the greenie madness underpinning those prices. They shape or reshape marriage, as well.

      The Cameroons are just as illiberal as the Millipedes could ever hope to be.

  • tjamesjones

    Extra ukip insanity below, it’s actually a fair question which seat Nige will stand for in 2015, but the discussion focusses on Boris Johnson and the suggestion that Nige should wait for 2015, a point not considered in the article above.

  • Denis_Cooper

    I’ve just been looking at the Tory manifesto, and I’m now minded to vote Tory on
    May 22nd because I’m dead against the Lisbon Treaty and in their manifesto the Tories say they’ll do something about it even if it had come into force.

    Their exact promise is that if the Lisbon Treaty had come into force they “would not let matters rest there”, which is good enough for me, they obviously mean business.

    Oh, no, silly me; I’ve just realised that I’m looking at the Tory manifesto for the last European elections in June 2009, not these elections.

    Hang on while I find their manifesto for these elections and see what promise about the Lisbon Treaty they may be making this time, then I’ll report back …

    • Chingford Man

      Prepare for disappointment.

  • Jonathan Burns

    Anybody that can unite the BBC, Guardian and Daily Mail against them will get my vote.

  • HookesLaw

    Why would anyone want to vote for a man spawning racism homophobia misogyny and bigotry? Plus a dose of economic illiteracy.

    • southerner

      Still talking to yourself Hooky old son. Nobody is listening.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      Nurse! He’s got loose again!

  • EppingBlogger

    When Bannerman fails to get elected as an MEP on 22nd surely he will seek to replace Yeo in South Suffolk for the Tories. One self-serving MP to replace another?

    Would Farage be able to contest that and keep his cool when faced with such a man on the hustings.

  • the viceroy’s gin

    “Coffee House understands that, ideally, Farage would like the seat to fit three criteria.”

    .

    So you Speccie kids “understand”… “ideally”…. what “Farage would like”, do you?

    More accurately, you kids muse as to what Farage would like.

    Seriously, lad, it’s not worthwhile for you to waste time tapping out your fantasies. If you told us the sun rose in the East, we’re liable to consider the source and question it.

    • Denis_Cooper

      It’s funny, isn’t it?

  • Smithersjones2013

    Oh dear and Payne doesn’t even bother to mention the Survation Analysis based on last years County Council elections .

    Local Election Analysis: UKIP “won” in 10 Westminster Constituencies

    http://survation.com/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/

    Of those 10 Payne doesn’t even mention Boston and Skegness where UKIP won by over 10% which was their best ‘win’ in those elections. However that fails a number of Farage’s criteria so let’s consider one that meets all Farage’s criteria. The obvious seat is Thanet South. UKIP took all the county council seats within the constituency and Sandys admitted that her deliberations on whether to stand in 2015 commenced in the aftermath of the county council elections. It may well be that Sandys is effectively UKIPs first Parliamentary scalp.

    Not only that Farage was born in the neighbouring Canterbury constituency and fought the Thanet South seat in 2005 denying the Tories the opportunity of taking the seat from Labour.. Thanet has a large and extremely active UKIP local association. They have subsequently won the only two council by elections in Thanet. South Thanet given its lack of incumbent, closeness to Farage’s birthplace, evident large widespread support, high turnover of representatives (2015 will bring the 4th different representative in 6 elections whereas Thanet North has had the same one for the last 8 elections).

    SImilarly Farage could use the local card for Thanet North (even more local to his birthplace in Herne but arguably not a marginal), SIttingbourne & Sheppey and Dover. However of the three Dover was by far the strongest of Labour’s performances in East Kent during the County Council elections. If Labour are to gain a foothold along the East Kent coast again it will most likely be at Dover which is of course heavily dependent on its port trade with Europe.

    In comparison most other of the seats mentioned currently pale into insignificance when put against Thanet South. Of course it will be much clearer after the Euros and Council elections when the levels of UKIP support can be further assessed. That might bring further possibilities up such as the Medway constituencies which as parts of a unitary council vote this year rather than last. Medway fits the profile of the other east kent coastal constituencies and so the three Medway constiuencies might be an outside chance for Farage……

    • El_Sid

      Farage’s links to East Kent aren’t that great, he’s not only Kentish he was born and always lived inside the (line of the) M25. He wasn’t born in Herne. So a Medway seat would be closer to home, plus it would be more practical to be closer to London given that he will have significant extra media etc duties as party leader. Kent is a lot bigger than people think – even with the Javelins Thanet is effectively as far from London as Leicester by train. Only thing is that you’ve got some big Eurosceptics in places like Rochester (Reckless) – maybe Gillingham & Rainham (Chrishti) would work but I think he might fancy going for Helen Grant in Maidstone.& The Weald.

      Plus this idea of putting your top man in the “easiest” seat is a great idea if you only want to win one seat. One might presume that Farage’s celebrity value is worth a few 1000 votes in itself so if you want to win 20 seats, then you let non-entities contest the 10 easiest seats and save your main man for a more marginal seat. I’d imagine he’d particularly fancy picking a fight with a high-profile opponent like a minister, just to further whip things up in the media.

  • Raddiy

    The political savvy choice as far as I am concerned is for Nigel to not announce his decision until the closing day for applications, leaving 300 Conservative MP’s on tenterhooks, looking over their shoulders, and then just replace the candidate at the last moment . The press will go ballistic trying to second guess him, and the political parties would hate all the publicity he will get, and like Jim Callaghan and his will he/won’t he election, he will never be out of the papers.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      Now there’s a creative political thought.

      It’s sad that Dave isn’t so politically creative. Instead, he scurries around like a ferret on crack.

  • Kevin T

    UKIP’s highest polling is in East Anglia. Essex would be a very good bet.

    • Conway

      I noticed that on the racing programme today (from Newmarket) one of the commentators remarked that Cambridgeshire council was controlled by UKIP, so he was surprised that Faraaj (the horse) was only 10/1. When the party gets exposure to a sports audience, it must be doing something right!

  • @PhilKean1

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100269953/no-its-not-racist-to-think-ukip-has-a-point-about-immigration/

    Tim Stanley – “Matthew Parris has written a silly column about Ukip. A very silly column”

    I couldn’t agree more, Tim.
    .

    • athelwulf

      Tim Stanley is referring to a Parris article in The Times. There’s another by him in today’s Spectator: ‘Ukip isn’t a national party. It’s a Tory sickness’, which ends with: ‘nobody knows the cure’. A few pages on we get Hugo Rifkind’s piece: ‘Why do racists like Ukip?’
      How many UKIP supporters subscribe to The Spectator?

      • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

        Many.

        • Denis_Cooper

          But a diminishing number, I would think.

          • Smithersjones2013

            Parris is the ‘dag’ hanging from Cameron’s sheepish rear……

            • Wessex Man

              oh you naughty person you!

          • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

            I don’t thinks so, I’m trying to recall the American chat show host who was watched by more people who hated him than liked him. Their readership has never been great, but I hear it is due to be sold soon so we can hope that a pro-UKIP buyer comes forward.

          • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

            I think there is a scarcity of centre-right/right news outlets these days. You won’t find a broadsheet or “respectable” publication which hasn’t smeared UKIP recently.

            • Wessex Man

              please find me a respectable publication!

      • Colonel Mustard

        Rifkind’s article was especially silly.

  • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

    If UKIP don’t beat the disgraced Tim Yeo then we can conclude that they system is bent.

    • Denis_Cooper

      I don’t think UKIP will even have the opportunity to beat the disgraced Tim Yeo, who has been deselected by the local Tories and will slip off into private life to count the money he has made and add more, much more, through the policies he promoted while he was in Parliament. Unless you’ve heard that he intends to stand as an independent, in which case he won’t take much beating by anybody.

      • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

        I hear he will be running for the Tories in 2015.

        • Denis_Cooper

          Where? He was deselected by his local party members.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            Who cares what that rabble thinks? They need to be taught a lesson, that mob does. Who do they think they are?

  • Grey Wolf

    I am glad that Speccie is running free advertising for Farage / UKIP over the last week or so. Articles, critiques, suggestions and now free research – good job Speccie.

    • Denis_Cooper

      Yes, because the driver had made a mistake when reversing they were even kind enough to publish a picture of a UKIP bus adorned with the telephone number for joining UKIP.

  • Redrose82

    Why are all the suggested seats Conservative? Are there no Labour or Liberal marginals that he could consider?

    • @PhilKean1

      There is a dichotomy of considerations when targeting Labour strongholds.

      Labour voters are more tribal and, without wishing to insult, less politically-aware. They are less interested in politics and so any appeal has to target their base instincts.
      That said, logic says that UKIP targeting a Tory constituency that has a narrow margin between them and Labour has the capacity to maximize the potential return.

      Oh, and that appeal to Labour voters’ base instincts? “Unlimited immigration simply can NOT be stopped as long as we remain in the EU”.
      .

      • Redrose82

        No the result of UKIP standing in a conservative marginal is to probably result in the seat going to Labour thereby helping the party who, in government, will never remotely give us a referendum on the EU.

        • @PhilKean1

          That’s Cameron choice, not ours.

          When he starts taking Britain’s loss of Sovereignty seriously, then we might start voting for him.
          .

          • Ricky Strong

            Therein lies the problem. They have convinced themselves that we somehow gain sovereignty by pooling it.

            • @PhilKean1

              LOL.

              You mean they’re trying to convince us. I have no doubt they know exactly what they are doing.

              I mean, we have the insulting prospect of David Cameron telling British people they’ll have the chance to vote to leave the EU, at the same time as he is doing things that further enmeshe Britain within economic and political union.
              .

              • Ricky Strong

                Yes, sorry you are right.

                Just to clarify though – Cameron, who wants to remain in the EU but reform it is asking us to elect him so that he can reform the EU and then give us the chance to leave the EU.

                Meanwhile captain blinky wants to remain within the EU at all costs, however if we give away any more substantial powers he will offer us the chance to leave outright, instead of negotiate that transfer of power.

                And Clegg, well…

                • @PhilKean1

                  That’s about it.
                  .

        • saffrin

          If Cameron doesn’t want a Labour Government he should tell his mob to stand down.
          If Labour win, it is entirely Cameron’s fault.

          • Denis_Cooper

            Certainly true that only UKIP can beat Labour in the elections for the EU Parliament, and all those still thinking of voting Tory should think again.

        • Denis_Cooper

          Labour would give us a referendum if they wanted to join the euro. But it wouldn’t be a referendum just about whether we wanted to join the euro, it would be an “in-out” referendum where the only choice on the ballot paper would be between staying in the EU and adopting its currency, or leaving the EU. And then the Tory party, which has as its official position that we should stay in the EU but not join the euro, would have nothing at all that it could say during the campaign for that referendum, it would be rendered hors de combat, and afterwards it would be finished as a political force in this country. However few Tories have yet realised this.

        • Smithersjones2013

          Rubbish. It depends whether the local Labour vote is sufficient to win the seat in the face of opposition from the other parties. Across the south of England there is little evidence that Labour’s vote has recovered anywhere near enough. In fact its possible that much of what used to be the Labour vote in the south has shifted to UKIP. That is why so many south eastern coastal seats are now targets for UKIP.

    • Smithersjones2013

      Remember in 2010 Labour had there worst performance whilst in Government ever and that followed 13 years when their supprt was in decline. All the seats in Kent that are a possibility were Labour seats after 1997. They lost them to Tories in subsequent elections. I suspect the same is true in most of the other cases.

      Labour has recovered somewhat since 2010 and therefore those marginal seats they still hold will have seen their support improve considerably in the last 4 years. The Tories on the other hand are polling less than in 2010. Therefore a Tory marginal generally will be more vulnerable than a Labour marginal.

      That is largely why they are All Tory seats.

  • El_Sid

    Since the incumbency rule seems to be flexible, why no mention of Folkestone and Hythe, a blue/yellow marginal which Farage is on the record as saying he fancies? It would be quite fitting for him to represent the only constituency which is physically linked to the Continent.

    It’s also worth noting that the growth of Ashford means that the boundaries in Kent are being seriously rejigged, typically the coastal constituencies like Folkestone are gaining some true-blue inland wards so you might want to check the numbers based on the 2015 boundaries.

    • Smithersjones2013

      Since the incumbency rule seems to be flexible, why no mention of
      Folkestone and Hythe, a blue/yellow marginal which Farage is on the
      record as saying he fancies?

      Because like all Little Sebby’s articles it is slovenly and badly researched.

  • Tom

    I personally think Farage should wait until the GE, we have seen the smear campaign over the last fortnight and were he to stand in a by election, the establishment would throw the kitchen sink at UKIP in the hope that a defeat would set them back..

    • Denis_Cooper

      “Mr Farage, you are making a real nuisance of yourself travelling around the country stirring up trouble. Apart from anything else, it means that our various groups of protestors have to follow you around with their chickens and their eggs and their placards to smack down on your head. Wouldn’t it better for all of us if you went to Newark and stayed there for the rest of this campaign? It is after all “a glittering prize” which could easily be within your reach, oh so easily, it is yours for the taking. What do you say?”

      • Tom

        To right Denis he is going to be a massive thorn in their sides over the next 12mths.

      • I like Comb-over

        Mr Farage, please accept that Frederick Glenister whom you are threatening to take to ‘the cleaners’ is from Nottingham. Andrew Scott who ‘assaulted’ you in Margate also lived in this very town. Get it?

        • Denis_Cooper

          What are these specific people alleged to have done, and what makes whatever they are alleged to have done an acceptable part of how we conduct elections in this country?

          • I like Comb-over

            Clearly you have already forgotten your OP.

            • Denis_Cooper

              I’ve no idea what you’re talking about, and I suspect that you also have no idea what you’re talking about.

            • the viceroy’s gin

              Does the goat like combover, lad?

              You should find out, before this new sockpuppet gets started.

        • Colonel Mustard

          It was technically an assault and battery.

          Fortunately for Mr Glenister Farage is a man, the assault was not forty years ago and the evidence is not one against one so he will probably get treated leniently.

          • Denis_Cooper

            UKIP have many enemies apart from the three old political parties: the SWP, the UAF supported by Cameron, the BNP execrated by Cameron, the BBC and most journalists in the mass media, and so on; some of them may hate each other as much as they hate UKIP, and they may hate the Tory party as well; but not only Cameron but also Miliband and Clegg and their media friends are quite content to see them all of them contributing to the campaign to stop UKIP. including when some of them resort to physical violence.

          • I like Comb-over

            Yup, they moderated your previous post because it could be interpreted as mildly misogynist. Someone seem to be paying a lot of money to clean up the act of UKiP supporters.
            Not a good news for us, normal folks, who now will not have a chance to find out what UKiP voters really think about women and homosexuals, before its too late.

            • Denis_Cooper

              Somebody is paying money to trawl through the backgrounds of over two thousand UKIP candidates and see what they may have done or said or even thought years ago, but nobody is paying the same kind of money to do that job of digging the dirt on the twelve thousand or so candidates of the other parties.

              And in fact when something comes up about a candidate of one of the other parties the mass media are not particularly interested:

              http://order-order.com/2014/04/30/suspended-council-candidate-doesnt-make-national-news/

              Three of them, in fact, one from each of the old parties.

              • I like Comb-over

                I believe that this action was set up to fail. And are you sure that these guys were really meant to protect abused Slavs? Zahawi is fundamentally anti-Slavic, listen to his Oxford pro-immigration speech. Only Roche spoke pro-Slavs right to the face of pro South Asia immigration lobbyist from UKiP, for which I am very grateful. We need someone with her abilities. But I also understand, that she has quite a few skeletons in her closet, so her message is unlikely to win harts and minds of UKiP supporters and is easy to discredit.

                ps. she has certainly won the hart of this conservative

                (anyway, this is off topic, so I better stop)

                • Denis_Cooper

                  Stopping altogether might not be a bad idea, it would save people the trouble of trying to make any sense of what you post.

                • I like Comb-over

                  You stop these senseless personal attacks. If you have nothing to say about this article, then why do you keep posting more often than you breath?

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …maybe you better ask the goat, lad.

                • I like Comb-over

                  I do not know the goat, could you introduce me?

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Yes, you do know the goat, under all of your various sockpuppets.

                • Denis_Cooper

                  What, senseless personal attacks like hitting somebody over the head with a placard (“It’s OK, I’m a local”), or hitting them with an egg (“It’s OK, he’s a local, and we have a long tradition of hitting politicians with eggs, that’s an essential part of the way we do democracy in this country”), or standing around him screaming abuse into his face and threatening him?

                  That kind of senseless personal attack?

                  You think that political violence is OK if it helps you to get what you want; I’m against political violence whatever its source or supposed reason. And one day you yourself may be grateful that we haven’t yet quite descended to the pits where some people would like to take us.

            • the viceroy’s gin

              Well, he posts under one nickname, lad, unlike you and your many sockpuppets .

              • I like Comb-over

                How do you know that he is not Lizzy from Devon? And what exactly do you have against goats?

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  You must be puzzled that your fresh sockpuppets can be spotted out in less than 5 posts now.

                  That’s how it works, lad. Everybody knows about it now.

                • I like Comb-over

                  So tell us, what do you have against goats?

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  So, it’s probably best if you cease the sockpuppet barrage, lad. It’s transparent.

                • you_kid

                  The chap thinks I was a goat, too.
                  This must be code for ‘I need help’.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  No, nobody here speaks in code, lad, other than you and all your sockpuppets.

                  But amusing that your sockpuppets are now talking to each other.

                • you_kid

                  I now have twenty fingers, one sockpuppet each! W-ahahaha. Viceroy, you are a loon.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …first the goats, and now you’re about loons now, lad? Do you envirowhacko nutters permit caged menageries?

            • Colonel Mustard

              Don’t flatter yourself. It was moderated because I originally used the shortened form of “he will” with an apostrophe. They don’t like H*ll.

              As for you being normal your pseudonym and avatar tend to militate against that assertion.

            • Wessex Man

              Please don’t try and pretend that you or your views are anywhere near normal!

          • wobble

            Free range ..surely !

        • Kevin T

          There are psychos everywhere.

        • Wessex Man

          I get what you are saying, you are one of a very small band of desperate people who are ‘following’ Farage around the country hounding a man as if he were some sort of major criminal because you don’t agree with his or the 41% currently backing UKip’s stand against the EU.

          Don’t try to say that people protesting against him are form the towns they causing all the trouble, I do know people on his tour who have spotted the same faces time and again.

          True demcracy have raised it’s head again and you and yours want to cut it off as usual.

    • Conway

      I wonder when they will realise that actually they are doing more good to UKIP than harm.

  • Denis_Cooper

    I see it reported that Boris Johnson is thinking about standing in a northern seat, “to underline his credentials as a leadership candidate capable of widening Conservative appeal”.

    Well, Cameron says that he would like Johnson back in Parliament, and there’s a vacancy in Newark; so why doesn’t Cameron just ring up the present Tory candidate and ask him to step aside – Cameron could tempt him with the offer of a safer Tory seat, let us say Hampshire North West – and let Johnson fight that seat?

    Is it because Johnson himself is “frit”?

    • @PhilKean1

      Now that observation is well worth a plus mark,
      .

      • Tom

        Are you missing conhome phil?.

        • Denis_Cooper

          Ask me that as well.

          • Tom

            Are you Denis,its annoying they can spout any old bull about UKIP now,they didn’t like the competition.

            • Denis_Cooper

              I still look at the site to see if I can pick up anything useful, but to be honest the articles had become less interesting and I find that I don’t really mind that much about not being permitted to pass any comment. In all modesty I think it’s their loss more than it is mine … I wonder how much longer they can and will keep going?

              • Tom

                The comments section was certainly more livelier before the wholesale bans handed out.

              • Raddiy

                Did you get dumped off Denis like most of us, or did you just leave?

                • Denis_Cooper

                  Dumped, and without a word.

                  They don’t much like my contrary views but they’ve tolerated them for quite a long time, however this is obviously a critical time when their party is set to do badly.

                • Raddiy

                  Yeah that was the same with me.

                  Like you I pop across occasionally to see what is going on. It is quite amusing reading the comments of Sally, Malcolm and one or two others still going on about it being UKIP home, they seem to be oblivious to the fact that we are not there anymore, and appear to be on a permanent lloop.

                  They look really silly when a UKIP related thread comes up, and out they pop to say the kippers will be all over it like a rash in a minute, and then nothing, and the fact is they are not contributing anything.

                  It would appear the owners have decided to sacrifice the site to try and protect the party, and it will probably die a slow death from now on. All rather futile and pointless, but they no longer appear to be able to think rationally if last week is anything to go by.

          • Holly

            And me

            • Denis_Cooper

              You as well?

              Why you?

              • Holly

                ‘Cos I’m a Conservative I think.

                • Denis_Cooper

                  🙂

        • @PhilKean1

          I am missing what CH could have been, and sometimes, nearly was.

          I still post on the newslinks, but have decided not to post on their main comments section until it becomes a bit clearer what they are wanting from their contributors.
          If they see their contributors as a mere commodity, and not as a valuable asset that can enhance their profile, then I am at a loss to understand.

          I don’t wish to speak ill of them during this time. Tim Montgomerie was in the vanguard of those who wanted to give ordinary people a voice. And he was very successful. Politicians now have to pause before they dismiss the electorate and treat them with contempt.
          .

          • Streben80

            Goodman banned me altogether, twice. Badge of honour that my Kippery bugs him so.

            • @PhilKean1

              We would know you as?
              .

              • Streben80

                FoRooz, I did hear that ETA missed me, how touching!

                • @PhilKean1

                  Ah, yes. I hope you are well.
                  .

      • Denis_Cooper

        I see that you haven’t yet been banned from the Newslinks section of that other website where I picked up the reference to the Times article, maybe you’d like to repeat the point there … amazing that this article dwells at length on where Farage might stand for the UK Parliament when that is obviously the last thing on his mind at the moment, when it could have been an article about why Johnson is shilly-shallying when he could easily be fitted in as the Tory candidate in Newark.

    • Wessex Man

      of course!

    • @PhilKean1

      I would do, Denis, but I thought it was North Hampshire seat, and not a Northern England seat?

      I may be wrong.
      .

      • Denis_Cooper

        http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4080131.ece

        “Boris Johnson is considering standing in a seat in the north of England at the next election to underline his credentials as a leadership candidate capable of widening Conservative appeal, according to friends.”

        • Raddiy

          Surely the two obvious northern seats are Louth and Horncastle and Thirsk and Malton, although being a ‘proper’ northerner one is in the midlands as far as I am concerned. Louth and Horncastle where I don’t think a candidate for Sir Peter Tapsell has been chosen yet, and Thirsk and Malton where Anne McIntosh has been de-selected, although I think T & M would be risky if she stood as an independent. There is a potential threat from UKIP in both seats, so the former certainties in both seats, may no longer apply, although I suppose that argument could be made just about anywhere.

      • Denis_Cooper

        The chap who has been selected as the Tory candidate in Newark has no local connection; in 2010 he contested a seat in Newcastle and did well, cutting the Labour majority, so he’s being rewarded with a better seat. I’m sure that a call from the leader asking him to step aside and let Boris fight the by-election to get back into the Commons, with an assurance that they’d see him OK, would do the trick.

        • @PhilKean1

          Isn’t that contrary to their statement that their man “has local connections” ?

          Do you live in Surrey / Hampshire? If so, did you receive one of the scaremongering Euro election campaign letters from the Liberals?

          • Denis_Cooper

            No, I live in Berkshire. I think somebody had a letter in the Telegraph complaining about an unsolicited letter from them, which started “Dear Friend”.

            I suppose it depends on what you mean by “local”.

            http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/Tory-Newcastle-candidate-Robert-Jenrick-stand/story-21039133-detail/story.html

            “Mr Jenrick, who grew up in Shropshire and Herefordshire …”

            http://www.newarkconservatives.org.uk/news/message-robert-jenrick-conservative-parliamentary-candidate-Newark

            “I grew up in the Midlands”

            “I went to Cambridge University, gained a first class degree and then went on to pursue a career building businesses, becoming International Managing Director at Christie’s, the leading art business. I’ve also been involved in my family’s small business here in the Midlands.”

            • @PhilKean1

              “Dear friend”, that’s the one.

              And what about this gem – “A stream of business groups & business leaders are saying that leaving the EU is threatening our hard-earned recovery. They include Richa” ………. blah, blah, blah………… !
              .

              • Conway

                He missed out the word “large” in front of business groups. The small business people I know dislike the EU as it stops them expanding (and thereby employing more people).

                • @PhilKean1

                  Exactly. Britain’s economic prosperity and employment has relied the creation and success of SMEs – and big businesses are better able to cope with EU over-regulation and taxes. Probably why Cameron’s big business friends seem to favour staying in.
                  .

    • itdoesntaddup

      Liverpool would be perfect, don’t you think?

      • Denis_Cooper

        After he’d put up a good show in Newark but failed to win the seat he could be promoted to a more winnable seat such as Tatton.

    • Rillian

      I don’t know anyone in their right mind would vote for that man. He wants Turkey, his homeland, population 74 Million, to join the open-door immigration EU.

      • Denis_Cooper

        But he wouldn’t go around telling that to the voters, nor would he major on his desire to have an amnesty for illegal immigrants.

      • tjamesjones

        Well spotted Rillian! Turkey is, indeed, Boris Johnson’s homeland. Let nobody say Ukip supporters are insane.

  • Denis_Cooper

    Interesting.

    If I type in:

    “”Nigel Farage will be turning his thoughts to where he will stand as an MP.”

    No he won’t.”

    then apparently that is OK, but if I add more it suddenly needs to be moderated.

    • Denis_Cooper

      That’s adding more, in the form of a reference to an ongoing election campaign across the country in which he is fully engaged.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        The Speccie kid is just trolling, obviously.

        What a shame that the Speccie trolls its own website.

  • you_kid

    Forward to Socialism!

    How to give a single pathetic seat to the biggest socialists Britain has ever seen since the war? Airlift in the candidate. Why stand where you live?
    That’s how English democrackery works.

    • @PhilKean1

      Can you be more specific.
      .

      • you_kid

        How is the UKIP socialist one man band going to get a seat – in England? Stand where they live?

        UKIP are protectionist lefties. Their ads have firmly placed them in the socialist camp. Their main message in the Euros is not the EU, it is immigration.

        How is it a ‘free market’ when you heavily control the main part – labour movement? Not even Millipede would dare to come up with such nonsense.

        • @PhilKean1

          Don’t really understand what you are saying.

          Are you saying that you want rules of standing for office to apply to UKIP that don’t apply to Labour, the Liberals and Cameron’s party?
          You do know that quite a few current MPs were “parachuted in” – or allocated safe seats?

          And UKIP don’t want to restrict access to the UK jobs market for foreign workers.
          Rather, they want to apply the same VISA system as used by other countries.
          .

          • you_kid

            I do know what I am saying. In a FPTP system the parachuting in of candidates ought to be outlawed. It loopholes and renders obsolete the very foundations it claims to support.

            • Wessex Man

              agree entirely, how in heavens name did I end up with a Tory Scottish MP in the West Country?

        • Denis_Cooper

          OK, so you believe in unrestricted and unlimited immigration into our country.

          And you’re perfectly entitled to your view, which is shared by a small minority of your fellow citizens.

          On your “free market” argument, Thatcher was a socialist.

          • you_kid

            No, I don’t – that is precisely the point. Nor do any other major political party. There is no distinction on this matter between UKIP and the LibLabCon.

            UKIP ‘want’ immigration just as much as any other party. Their great new leader has confirmed that many times (!)

            • Denis_Cooper

              Wanting immigration which is controlled and limited to tens of thousands a year gross is where the British people are, and that is where UKIP is as well.

            • saffrin

              Skilled migration based on UK requirements, not open door to all and sundry, which is what LibLabCon insist upon.

              • you_kid

                … which is why I posted that comment about footballers.

                So employing foreign (skilled) footballers and managers is not an issue but having your pizzas and curries served by foreign waiters and waitresses after the match is?

                • saffrin

                  Footballers and managers included.
                  It ain’t an English team if it has foreigners in it.

                • you_kid

                  You chose to discriminate on the basis of ‘skill’. That will not wash.

                  What we need is a system that attracts the workforce we require. If low skill is required then, like magic, we attract low skilled immigration.

                  Why do we have so many low skilled jobs in Britain? Because we created them!

                • saffrin

                  There is no shortage of footballers or managers in the UK.
                  If they paid Wayne Roony £50 a game he’d still play, if he didn’t, there are plenty that would.

                • Denis_Cooper

                  Don’t we have enough of our own unskilled people without needing to import more?

                  Like we have enough homegrown criminals without any need to import more from abroad.

                • you_kid

                  Which is why I included the line: what we need is a system that attracts the workforce we require.
                  That includes our homegrown ‘stock’.

                • Denis_Cooper

                  You actually said:

                  “What we need is a system that attracts the workforce we require. If low skill is required then, like magic, we attract low skilled immigration.”

                • you_kid

                  Ah ok, I get you. I should have concluded that ‘if foreign low skilled labour was required, then…’.
                  The facts remain – we attract the labour market we deserve and want and support, like any other nation on the planet.
                  Can Botswana find creative media types? No.
                  Can Germany find Indian IT professionals? No.
                  Can we find indigenous waiters and waitresses? No.

                • Denis_Cooper

                  Of course we can find indigenous waiters and waitresses, just as we did before the days of mass immigration.

                • you_kid

                  Haha. An endless circle – you claim immigration killed jobs, I claim immigration created/supported them. One good example to prove a point would be to look at what happened to the indigenous textile trade.

                • Denis_Cooper

                  “One good example to prove a point would be to look at what happened to the indigenous textile trade.”

                  When, what and how?

                • you_kid

                  Ok, that is a topic perhaps too broad to start a discussion on now. I would advise to familiarise yourself with the detailed capital flows, labour movements and skill sets required at various stages of the English textile trade history.

                • Denis_Cooper

                  You raise it as a good example, and then you chicken out of discussing it any further.

                  Have you ever read “Animal Farm” by George Orwell?

                  You remind me of Squealer.

                • you_kid

                  Is there a limit to comments on this thread – why don’t we pick up on that another time.
                  English textile trade history is a huuuuge topic. I have pointed at the key issues of that topic which are relevant for this thread. That is really all that matters here now.

                • Denis_Cooper

                  Well, I’ve certainly got better things to do with my time than waste it on you.

                • Holly

                  The cloth on London buses is made here in Huddersfield.
                  YAY!
                  Soooooo proud.

                • you_kid

                  The chap who designed the London buses was a Manchester graduate. He snapped up the job from another lad from Levenshulme who did a mediocre job but is now a Lord.

                • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

                  How is an over-supply of labour creating jobs?

                  All it does is drive down wages and prevent our own people finding work.

                • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

                  So you don’t think our 2.5 million unemployed youths as well as all of the ones at university could be waiters and waitresses?

                • Kevin T

                  There’s a good argument against importing footballers too. It’s short termism and is a big part of the reason England never wins anything. The countries that win the World Cup make an effort to bring up their own players. However professional football is a small, skilled profession that affects only a rich few. Mass unskilled and semi-skilled migration prevents the less well off from earning a decent living by forcing them to compete with those who can work for less. Snobs like yourself and Matthew Parris could care less of course (What did Parris call them? “Inadequates”?) but you will find working class communities are not inclined to vote for their own marginalisation and impoverishment.

                • you_kid

                  Working class communities demand representational leadership.

                  UKIP do not offer that leadership and I have explained why elsewhere on this blog.

        • Tony_E

          You’re being naive really. UKIP are not really socialist (or of any other real political persuasion other than nationalist), they are just trying to pull votes from the Labour supporters in the North on the basis that ‘one we are out of the EU then you can protect your socialist ideals if you want to’.

          Farage has figured that he has already achieved as much as he can on the right, kicking the Tories, now he needs to drag in some votes from the left.

          It’s simple electoral tactics.

          • allymax bruce

            if anybody is ‘naive’, it’s you; UKIP don’t want to take rUK out of Europe, why do you think Farage’s whole strategy is to make his UKIP ‘the Party of Europe by winning lots of EU seats?
            Get with the programme.

            • Denis_Cooper

              Don’t be silly, withdrawal from the EU is enshrined in UKIP’s constitution as its primary objective.

              • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

                They’re delusional.

                • Denis_Cooper

                  Me?

                  Read it for yourself:

                  http://www.ukip.org/the_constitution

                  UKIP only came into being and only exists now to get us out of the EU, that’s its primary objective.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  He’s talking to the two delusional jocks above, The Bruce, as well as the goat’s master and all associated sockpuppets.

                • Denis_Cooper

                  Yes, I misread it.

                  Next we’ll be hearing that Alex Salmond doesn’t really want Scotland to leave the UK!

                  Oh, hang on a minute …

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Yes, well, that and UKIP is socialist and Salmond is a Von Mises devotee.

                  Lots and lots to learn from the cybergnats, we must acknowledge.

                • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

                  No, you are not, if I wanted to say you are delusional I would have. “They’re” is a lazy abbreviation of “they are”.

                  I know their objectives, the clue is in their name.

                • Denis_Cooper

                  Oh, do you mean THEY are delusional?

                  Sorry if I misread that.

                • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

                  I actually meant “They’re”.

              • allymax bruce

                Yeh, sure; Denis. Like ‘in the future’. Or, like, ‘when it’s feasable’. Or, ‘when it’s convenient for UK to do so’.
                Like I say, get with the programme.

                • Denis_Cooper

                  As soon as possible.

          • Denis_Cooper

            Years I ago I kept saying that UKIP needed to extend its appeal leftwards across the political spectrum and become more of a broad centrist party which was distinguished from all the other parties because unlike them it was committed to our national sovereignty and democracy. There are plenty of patriotic people of a leftish political disposition just as there are patriotic people of a rightish political disposition, and it needed to bring them together in a patriotic party. I’m glad to see that this is now happening.

            • you_kid

              Everyone wants to occupy the centre, all whilst being ‘radical’ about one thing or the other. So of course none of them are!
              We do not have any real Conservatives in Parliament today, nor any proper socialists, nor any nationalists for that matter. The Westminster system is broken.
              The only people who can fix that are the Scots (!) in September.

              • Denis_Cooper

                But not all those who want to occupy the centre are committed to our national sovereignty and democracy.

                • you_kid

                  I have explained in many posts that the Westminster system is broken, where it is broken, why it is broken. UKIP do not address a single one of those points – they choose to look outwards for the errors of others, not inwards for the errors in our system.
                  UKIP are not the Beppe Grillos of Britain. That is why no one will take them seriously – because they do not challenge any of our indigenous/home-made/internal underlying errors in the system.

                • Denis_Cooper

                  First we restore our national democracy by leaving the EU, then we improve our national democratic system so that treacherous politicians can never again set out to destroy it without the people intervening to stop them.

                • you_kid

                  You are protectionist when it suits you instead of creating the environment that is required to attract the labour workforce that is required to deliver prosperity in this country.
                  That is pure socialism, latter stage communism in fact 😉

                • Denis_Cooper

                  As I’ve said before, if controlling and limiting immigration is “socialist” the Margaret Thatcher was a “socialist”.

                  You really do come out with so much time-wasting tripe.

                • you_kid

                  Discriminating on the grounds of skill will not wash in a country that is broadly based on a free market ideology. What UKIP offer is protectionism and socialist values of blaming evil outside forces (by being socialists themselves) when everything that would deliver the actual solutions point inwards.

                • Denis_Cooper

                  Discriminating on the grounds of skill certainly won’t wash under the EU treaties as interpreted by the eurofederalists on the EU’s Court of Justice, which is why UKIP is right and the other old parties are wrong.

                • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

                  We have no control over who comes into our country at all.

                • Denis_Cooper

                  We the citizens of this country elect a government to serve and protect us, if it isn’t even going to control our borders then it might as well not be there.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …very soon, on current course, it won’t be.

    • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

      I see you’re putting your social skills to work again.

      You’re so deluded it’s not worth bothering with, you have convictions, of which even you are unsure.

      • you_kid

        That told me – will it work?
        w-aaahahaha!

        • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

          Even labour don’t have the impudence to espouse mass immigration. You should hang your head in shame.

          • Conway

            Not now they realise that people have woken up to what they did in order to rub the noses of the right in diversity.

  • @PhilKean1

    .
    A lot of very unhappy people in the Dover area who been very badly affected by unlimited EU immigration.

    Wherever he stands, it is vital that he wins a seat, hopefully before the General Election. Because if he could win a seat in a By-Election, it could mean UKIP winning ten seats in 2015.

    And never has there been a more important General Election. Because the Liberal-left’s complete domination of British politics must be broken if we are to prevent them condemning the British people to living under EU dictatorship.
    .

    • saffrin

      Ten seats?
      You pessimist. I’m thinking landslide. There is only two parties standing don’t ya’ know?

    • crackenthorp

      Oh dear what utter claptrap, this person personifies all that is wrong with GB

    • Conway

      I definitely got the impression that the tide is turning today. I was handing out UKIP literature at the same venue as last month and the response was much brisker – many more people came up to me and asked, rather than waiting for it to be offered and more people accepted the literature. Some of those who didn’t take it told me they would be voting for UKIP and some said they had stickers in the window. I even had one person, who I know isn’t interested in politics and hasn’t voted in the past, take one and say that he was considering UKIP. We live in interesting times.

      • @PhilKean1

        We do.

        And I think more people are coming to understand UKIPs’ honourable aim of trying to return control of Britain’s politicians back to the people.
        .

    • Fergus Pickering

      You are right about Dover. They hate immigrants, and with good reason.

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