Coffee House

Where might Nigel Farage stand ‘south of the river’ in 2015?

23 May 2014

4:27 PM

23 May 2014

4:27 PM

Nigel Farage has told BBC News this afternoon he intends to stand in a seat ‘south of the river’ at the general election next year. Despite undertaking a victory lap of Essex today, Farage has proclaimed he won’t be standing there:

‘There are several seats here in Essex that are absolutely winnable for us in a general election next year. I haven’t yet decided what I’m going to do but I will choose a seat; it will be a seat south of the area.’

Combined with the criteria Coffee House understands Farage has for choosing a seat, the options are slowly narrowing. The most likely options are South Thanet — which ticks all of his criteria — and Eastleigh, which would be fighting the Liberal Democrats in a straight re-run of the 2013 by-election. In both instances, Farage visited the seats in the last week of the local election campaign, suggesting he has an particular interest in those area. Here’s a breakdown the potential constituencies:

1. South Thanet

Marginal: Yes — Tories took seat in 2010 with 7 per cent swing
Local connection: Yes — Farage is a Kent man and an MEP for the region
No incumbent: Yes — Laura Sandys (Con) is standing down
South of the river: Yes
Electoral Calculus prediction: 65 per cent chance of CON hold

[Alt-Text]


2. Eastleigh

Marginal: Yes — Ukip almost took seat in 2013 by-election
Local connection: No — although Farage is a frequent visitor
No incumbent: No — Ukip
South of the river: Yes
Electoral Calculus prediction: 54 per cent chance of CON gain

3. Dover

Marginal: Yes — Tories took the seat from Labour with a 5k majority
Local connection: Yes — Farage is a Kent man and an MEP for the region
No incumbent: No
South of the river: Yes
Electoral Calculus prediction: None – 50% LAB gain/50% CON hold

UPDATE: Paddy Power are giving the following odds on these seats — South Thanet 5/6, Eastleigh 7/1 and Dover 12/1

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Show comments
  • JabbaTheCat

    People have such short memories. The dear leader stood against Bercow with no major party competition and still Farage managed to come third behind a man in a clown outfit…

  • abystander

    Stop talking this clown up.

    UKIP’s percentage share of the vote FELL in the English local elections.

    And we will skelp his bum in Scotland, nae bother.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      Are you sure? UKIP seems to have done fairly well in the North, so is it possible they’ll grab some support in Jockistan?

      • abystander

        Yet to save a deposit in any election.

  • Mynydd

    It depends on who offers cheap beer, Will you vote for a man who would introduce a £25 charge each time to visit your doctor?.

    • Ed_Burroughs

      Do you think they work for free under the current arrangement?

  • Wessex Man

    Nigel Farage, my party leader should consider how the candidate for whichever constituency he wishes to stand feels about it. the candidates that have already been chosen have had to go through a far tougher selection process than canidates from any other party. He should ignore the above and stand in any of the constituencies that have not yet selected someone.

    Perhaps he would like to come along to our Candidate Meeting and put his case forward next month.

  • Tiberii_filius

    A seat south of the river, eh?
    How about the Channel? No competition or hostile media, and all those foreigners close-by to insult. A sound inflatable would be essential but there is a westerly port outside the EU to use as a base. And with an infinite supply of hot air, I reckon Nige could manage to float around for a year or so.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      …ok, that’s pretty funny !

  • Lucy Sky Diamonds

    In a four party system, FPTP is morally corrupt.

    • rtj1211

      And when it was a three party system, how about then??

    • Kennybhoy

      FPTP is unjust full stop. Always has been.

  • Smithersjones2013

    Well there are three things that are pretty much certain. Given the UKIP surge Farage is not going to use the 2010 general election results as his primary decision aid he will use real data from the County Council elections and the Euro Elections and any local elections that might occur.

    Neither will Farage use the Electoral Calculus UNS toy that little Sebby has been playing with when he will have real election results and real on the ground information

    Its also puzzling why Sebby hasn’t included Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Folkestone & Hythe or Thanet North because in the County Council elections UKIP, did far better in those seats than they did in Dover (not least because they did not contest all seats in Dover).

    When will Sebby get it that there is no such thing as ‘Kent Man’. There are ‘Kentish Men’ (those born West of the Medway) and Men Of Kent (such as Farage who are born east of the Medway). Dear oh dear oh dear………

    That said Thanet South is most likely the favourite because of the Sandys departure , that Nigel has fought the seat before and was born in a neighbouring constituency so his local connection is much closer than being a ‘Kent Man [sic] and being a South East Region MEP

    Also whilst Eastleigh would seem to be better served by Diane James candidacy, Sebby also forgot to mention that Farage fought the seat in the 1994 Eastleigh by election. Sebby’s research is truly shoddy……

    • El_Sid

      When will Sebby get it that there is no such thing as ‘Kent Man’. There
      are ‘Kentish Men’ (those born West of the Medway) and Men Of Kent (such
      as Farage who are born east of the Medway). Dear oh dear oh
      dear………

      Those in glass houses….

      Farage is Kentish, not a Man of Kent – and is arguably more of a Londoner. He was born & bred in Downe, inside the line of the M25.

      • fubarroso

        Sorry! I didn’t read your post before putting my pennyworth in.

    • Makroon

      ‘Kent man’, ‘Man of Kent’, ‘Kentish man’ – none of them exist, like everyone else, we are individuals. Farage is probably well-advised not to run in (say) Basildon, on the back of the council election results – surely one of the most fickle electorates in the country.
      I would say that Dover would be a good shout (as long as recent immigrants aren’t registered to vote), but the seethingly resentful, reluctantly Labour, Medway towns would also be an attractive prospect.

    • fubarroso

      Errm, According to the record Nigel Farage was born at Downe, Kent which is close to London and definitely west of the river Medway. So that would make him a Kentish Man. Apart from that your comments are spot on.

  • Darnell Jackson

    At last, a picture if Farage where he doesn’t look like a tw@t

    • Lucy Sky Diamonds

      ie one which the media does not deliberately pick in order to shape the opinions of its easily lead readers….

      • Darnell Jackson

        Precisely

  • Count Dooku

    This is brilliant. “They took errrr jerrbs.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27543012

    • Lucy Sky Diamonds

      Why is it brilliant?

      • Count Dooku

        It’s reminiscent of the stereotypical Southern American voter.

        • Kitty MLB

          And its love for a tea party…
          and Alice in Wonderland, need I say more.

      • serialluncher

        For some of us it’s depressing that people as naive and provincial as the interviewee exist and have a vote each.

        • Wessex Man

          oh dear.

        • Ed_Burroughs

          Yes I agree. You’re obviously so enlightened that you should have two votes instead!

    • Airey Belvoir

      The BBC roving reporters were probably told to single out ‘odd’ looking people when interviewing UKIP supporters: visible tattoos, good; old and confused-looking, good; hard-man shaved head, look good; and so on. and of course, never an obvious ethnic minority.

  • Denis_Cooper

    Can’t be bothered to read yet another of these potboiler articles filled with ill-informed speculation.

  • the viceroy’s gin

    Farage said in that 1:08 minute clip that UKIP would choose a seat based upon proven FPTP competency by UKIP candidates in that area. That would be his first indicator, as he plainly said, and yet you haven’t even looked at that indicator, lad. You’ve gone off and invented some criteria for seats you think UKIP should go for, based upon whichever indicators a Speccie kid might dream up.

    Tell me, lad, do you know anything about politics, and do you know anything about journalism, and listening to what people actually say? Or do you simply ricochet around and invent stuff and make pretty pie charts that nobody in their right mind would trust? It’s really strange, watching you kids frolic around in here. But, don’t you want to be taken seriously, some day? You should.

    Try it again, lad, and find areas where UKIP has proven competency in FPTP contests. Trust me, he said that because he means it, as anybody who understands politics knows that’s the way to go.

  • Perpetually Astonished

    It is painfully disappointing that Nigel will not choose to stand in Nick Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam constituency. Imagine the entire nation tuned in on election night to see the returning officer deliver victory to Farage and unbounded pleasure to the nation. The famous Portillo moment would be a a white wine spritzer to such a fine single malt of an event. I don’t even like Farage, though I would like to see him in Parliament, and I cannot think of anyone I would more like to see defeat Clegg. Is there no way of persuading the man to satisfy the national desire?

    • telemachus

      We can confidently predict that Farage will not get in next May
      Let him enjoy his day today

      • Perpetually Astonished

        I don’t think we can confidently predict this, but even if we could that would be irrelevant to those of us who dream of the dear leader unseating Clegg. Just about anywhere else, especially the south of the river constituencies highlighted above would be uninteresting. And even though I don’t like the dear leader of his party, his presence in Parliament could only be a good thing.

        • telemachus

          Good
          Good?
          You mean in the manner of Enoch Powell

          • Perpetually Astonished

            Good in the form of a gadfly pricking our complacent, cocooned political class and their ‘middle-ground’ consensus. Good in the form of a voice for those alienated by modern politics, a globalised economy, rapid social change . . . they deserve an effective voice as well, and our political parties and media have thoroughly failed to articulate their concerns. Indeed they have only been insulted for having these concerns, with finger wagging accusations from people who don’t have to live their lives.

            Sure, he will be a buffoon as well, but buffoons can have a role too – if nothing else, they provide us with something to laugh about (UK politics is appallingly humourless) and also get indignant about. I disagree with him, but you want to demonise him. He isn’t a demon. He fits within democratic, liberal politics and is a very effective communicator of views I disagree with but which deserve to be heard and argued with.

            • telemachus

              I think the sentiments of your first paragraph have transpired
              Forget the LibDems who seemed to be business as usual and s*d the rest of you yesterday
              Miliband and Cameron have imbibed the messages on Europe and immigration
              But will not bow to the veiled racism of the last few weeks

              • Wessex Man

                as in the case of the nine Harrow Asian Labour councillors who all resigned together citing latent racism in the Labour Party tele babe?

                • telemachus

                  Personality clash

                  Wessex son

                  As Perry said

                  “In politics, personalities don’t always get on, but we categorically deny and would challenge accusations of racism.”

          • Wessex Man

            well tele babe, it’s got to be better for Britain that Ed Miliband choking on the left overs of Ed Balls bacon buttie!

            • telemachus

              A cunning ruse by the charismatic one

  • you_kid

    We are frankly gobsmacked how UNDEMOCRATIC our political system really is:

    27% of Labour votes return 1300 council seats.
    27% of UKIP votes return a mere 130 council seats.

    THAT IS TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE
    Sort out this undemocratic voting system will you!

    • the viceroy’s gin

      …and you socialist nutters are Mugabe’s greatest fanboys, as we know.

      • you_kid

        Ndiri kuzamura, mukomana!

        • the viceroy’s gin

          …that’s more coherent than what you normally post, at least.

          • rtj1211

            Would you survive a day where you got sixty lashes for each entry of yours being aggressively insulting??

            • the viceroy’s gin

              Would you survive a day without whining incessantly?

              • HookesLaw

                You are the whining one. Never with a serious argument … only ever wanting to see the overthrow of sensible right wing politics so you can take it over with your own brand of intolerant extreme right wing neo fascist racism and cultural superiority. What a demi god Farage must be to you.
                Keep polishing the jackboots.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  It’s amusing that you socialist nutters whine constantly, too. It’s all you do, well that and shriek “waaaaaaaaycism”. That’s why you socialist nutters are being rejected now.

          • you_kid

            Tora arasa iwe diki dhodhi.

            • the viceroy’s gin

              …no, you’re getting more gibberished again, lad.

      • rtj1211

        so you believe in the absolute inequality of FPTP do you?

        Perhaps from your land of indisputable superiority you could explain why some votes are more equal than others?!

        • the viceroy’s gin

          Hmmmmm, is that what your delusions tell you I believe in, lad?

        • Makroon

          Yeah, it would be much more fun to have a PR revolving door system like Italy or fourth republic France, wouldn’t it ?

          • you_kid

            Oh dear, Italy – it was only a matter of time wasn’t it. Italy is the excuse for a one in ten distortion of the BRITISH electoral systems as outlined? Why make this near fascist diversion?

            You forgot to list the obvious place where they have PR, much closer to home. In Merkelland, lad – the place that just took Scotland off Cameron’s hands. Are you not invited to the European Central Bank Headquarters opening party?

    • Wessex Man

      Normally you post an absolute load of baby babble, however I suppose once in a while everyone even you states the truth and on this occasion have take a bow!

      • telemachus

        Yes Wessex
        A very welcome truth
        A truth that will deliver the country back to the forces of reason next May

    • Alexsandr

      the size of constituencies is a disgrace. the council wards are as bad.
      my ward – 4836
      next door ward same council – 1773

      explain that

      • the viceroy’s gin

        … a far larger issue, obviously.

  • tommy5dollar

    No Folkestone?

    • http://www.spectator.co.uk/ Sebastian Payne

      It’s not a marginal – Tory safe seat since 1950 – and there’s an incumbent MP

      • El_Sid

        But Farage has explicitly mentioned it as a possibility – on the Andy Marr show. If anywhere’s aware of immigration it’s Folkestone – and a Survation poll a few weeks ago suggested that he was within a whisker of Damian Collins back then, let alone post-surge.

        As I said Thanet is a long way away from anywhere. I think the need to be close to London media and the fact that he’s born and bred inside the M25 makes a Medway seat more likely. Recent events may have crossed Maidstone and Gillingham off the list, Helen Grant and Chishti may be saved by their ethnicity.

        I wonder if the river is a clue, as in a consituency on the river. So how about Kingston & Surbiton? As a yellow-blue marginal Ed Davey is surely doomed, and there’s a history of Euroscepticism as Lamont’s old stamping ground. Farage is much more in tune with the stockbroker belt than the distant seaside/port towns.

        • Makroon

          This will be a general election in a strongly Tory constituency (Folkestone), threatened with the return of the ‘wrecking party”. It will be ‘all hands to the pump’, not ‘let’s have a protest fling with Nigel’

          • El_Sid

            Not sure you can call it strongly Tory when Collins got less than half of the vote – it’s similar to Thanet South but with yellow & red switched.

            The new Ashcroft poll suggests 51% of Kippers will stay UKIP for GE15, 21% will switch to the Tories, 14% undecided. Obviously that may change nearer the time but the “stickiness” of UKIP is going to be one of the great deciders of the GE15 result, but I’d guess that any party that’s retaining more than half of its voters is no longer looking like just a protest vote. Or at least, it’s a protest that runs much deeper than the usual mid-term blues.

            Incidentally, Ashcroft’s poll of Thanet South has Labour 32%, UKIP 28%, Tories 27%, so maybe a celebrity candidate might make all the difference. Otherwise it’s a classic case of vote UKIP, get Labour.

      • Wessex Man

        oh dear are you old enough to vote?

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