Coffee House

Today’s Westminster projections show that Labour is not in a comfortable place

23 May 2014

4:14 PM

23 May 2014

4:14 PM

We now have both the BBC’s projected national vote share and Sky’s Westminster projection of what this result would mean in parliamentary seats. Both show Labour ahead but not by much. They are on 31 percent of the vote to the Tories’ 29 according to the BBC. While Sky’s parliamentary projection has Labour a handful of seats short of a majority.

With a year to go, and with the economy expected to grow strongly, in the next 12 months, this is not a comfortable place for Labour to be. There’s a reason why more Labour MPs than Tory ones have been taking to the airways to sound off about their party’s direction. Of course, Labour still has big structural things in its favour. The boundaries give them an advantage and the left-wing Liberal Democrat vote has collapsed.

Normally, you would add the rise of Ukip to this list of Labour advantages —and Douglas Alexander pretty much did that with his comments about 4 party politics on the Today programme. But these elections have shown that Ukip is beginning to make inroads into the Labour vote. Indeed, Farage thinks these voters are more likely to stick with him than those Tories who are using these elections to send a message to Cameron and Brussels. Whether Farage’s analysis of this is correct is going to go a long way to determining the result of the general election.

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  • Radford_NG

    The UKIP vote is distorted by London. We are told that nationally it is 17-5%.In Rotherham it is 47%.They have also won seats in Essex,the West Midlands and Portsmouth.They have come second in the North East.In Bassetlaw,which remains strongly Labour,they have come 2nd in 12 wards (9 of them Labour).This does not say to much for Cameron’s group.

  • bugshead

    Let’s hope these f***wits in the Labour party spend the next 12 months continuing to argue who is in charge – silly bunch of useless tossers !

  • Denis_Cooper

    I’m waiting to see how UKIP’s share of the votes is being calculated when it only contested about half the seats. Farage said on TV that in London there are many three seat wards where UKIP only put up one candidate. Obviously where electors have three votes to cast but there is only one UKIP candidate then the calculation has to take that into account, and I don’t yet know whether that has been done.

    • you_kid

      I know, you will try to defend the indefensible for as long as possible – it is only a matter of time, then the plebs will smell the rat.
      FPTP is toast.

      • Denis_Cooper

        What are you talking about?

        I’m talking about the best way to calculate shares of votes when there is more than one seat in a ward and therefore electors have more than one vote to cast but not all the parties put up enough candidates to fill all the vacant seats.

        • you_kid

          We know exactly what you are doing.
          FPTPost is … toast

          • Bill_der_Berg

            For better or worse, FPTP is alive and well, and will be for some time.

      • terence patrick hewett

        AV or PR are dirty little scams by the political class to give themselves jobs for life. That is why the electorate threw them out the last time. Politicals do not like FPTP because they are out of No. 10 within 24 hours: humiliated and chastened. It’s fun for us too: we have never lost our taste for public executions. Hark! I hear the tumbrils.

  • RavenRandom

    Considering that local elections have always been a protest against the Governing party the Tories can take some heart. I suspect they’ll have the largest vote percentage in 2015. Whether that’ll be enough is open to the question of our dodgy so-called democracy.

  • Andy

    The best bit of news is how UKIP are ‘eating’ into the Labour vote in their own heartlands. If UKIP develop this we could at long last see some opposition to Labour in their rotten boroughs in the North. Rock on I say. It’s high time.

    • samhol

      True. This just confirms that the natural position of the average Briton, whether they know this or not, is on the political right. Maybe UKIP can show the North of England in particular what the Labour Party really is: a controlling, patronising, anti-work cabal that can only succeed if people are kept desperate, under-educated and dependent upon the munificence of the State.

      • Kaine

        Gotta love it when the right start trotting out (pun intended) the old Marxist arguments about false consciousness.

        The public are also in favour of renationalisation of utilities, especially the railways, higher taxes for those earning over £100,000 a year, rent controls and a Financial Transaction Tax.

        Power to the people.

        • Bill_der_Berg

          It is important that Labour leaders should have been educated at a decent public school. Clement Attlee is regarded by many as the Labour man who achieved most. He went to Haileybury, I believe.

          • Kaine

            Blair went to Fettes. What’s your point?

            • Bill_der_Berg

              Blair is the exception that proves the rule.

            • LucieCabrol

              Fettes was in Scotland and therefore does nae count

      • telemachus

        I think you will find that the Socialists in this country grew out of hard work and the promotion of education
        Blair remember is the one who sent 50% of our young to University

        • Ooh!MePurse!

          And what a disaster that was. A university degree used to be a measure of a sound academic education. Now it seems to be a requirement for working in WH Smith. I have nothing against people who work in WH Smith but they do not need a degree to do it.

        • LucieCabrol

          He also pressed the implode button on public sector education…maths, science and english collapsed on the PISA ratings world wide on his and Gordies watch…education education education; Truly a crime against the people.

  • rtj1211

    One of the more amusing comments I heard listening the BBC’s discussion on the election results was a Labour Politician (Mary Creagh) suggesting that, with a vote share of 31%, they should be ‘aiming for a majority Government’.

    I cannot stress enough that UK democracy is dead if any party polls only 31% yet expects to rule. They should have no business even thinking about ruling and, had they one shred of decency, proper upbringing or desire to serve then they would not consider themselves remotely suitable to lead a majority government with 69% of those voting against them.

    My personal opinion is that both the Conservatives and Labour will not poll much more than 30% in 2015 and that will bring into the sharpest focus possible the attitudes of the political Establishment toward democracy.

    • Andy

      Labour can get a majority with just 35% of the vote. In 2010 the Tories failed to gain an overall majority with more than 35% of the vote, and yet if you look at the figures Blair got whopping majorities on quite small vote shares.

      • Stephen

        As did Thatcher in the 1980s. She managed to make 42.44% yield a very efficient 62.08% of the seats. Not much different to Blair’s 43.21% of the vote which yielded 63.43% of the seats in 1997. And of course, if you’re not one of the two main parties, vote share and seat numbers bear no relation to one another. The Liberal Democrat vote share was only 6% less than Labour in 2010 but they had only 9% of the seats compared with Labour’s 39%.

  • you_kid

    Why does no one appear to care?

    27% of Labour votes return 1300 seats.
    27% of UKIP votes return a mere 130 seats.

    That is totally unacceptable.
    What further proof is required that the British electorial system is BRO|KEN?

    • Bill_der_Berg

      PR has been discussed and no doubt it will be discussed again. One of the main arguments against it is that it is likely to result in coalition government. Experience of the present one will not strengthen the hand of those who support PR.

      • you_kid

        So? A ‘coalition government’, something that drove the Scandinavians or Germany into ruin? I mean … wot?
        The argument against is of course that you would want to discourage the representation of the people by excluding the will of more than half of society – all smaller parties have been excluded from the house and political representation for too long – Britain no longer is a two party state – we are a five party plus society.
        Either you have a democracy that reflects society or you don’t – if you don’t then that is not a ‘democracy’, it is something else. Mugabe or Kim Jong-Ill could explain what.

        • Bill_der_Berg

          There are examples of successful coalitions and of unsuccessful ones. The anti-PR people used to quote the example of a country where a small party of religious nuts held the balance of power and could extort concessions from one side or another in return for its support.

        • LucieCabrol

          Mugabe or Kim jong …I think you are pushing a line a little too far there.

    • Daidragon

      Then why do UKIP support first past the post?

      • Kaine

        They don’t AFAIK. Farage campaigned for AV.

  • Kitty MLB

    They said the national share of the votes were:
    Labour 31% Conservatives 29% UKIP 17% Lib Dems 13%.
    Absolutely dire for Labour. They had a chap with David Dimbleby
    saying all this on the dear old BBC and Dimbles was trying
    to stop him from going on.Yes they are ahead with seats but
    not enought to win a election.They should be much further
    ahead just one year before an election.Its not just the
    UKIP effect, no one in his own party sees him as
    Prime Minister material

    • Shazza

      I’ve been watching it as well. Such joy to see the Labour in fighting and playing the blame game. They are always so keen to point the finger at the Conservatives about ‘banging on about Europe’ etc.

      Labour still do not get why they are going to lose the election. Watching Hattie’s diatribe on cost of living, etc. shows the depth of their denial and arrogance that they are not culpable for the damage inflicted during their 13 year Reign of Terror. Dan Hodges, always worth a read over at the Telegraph is spot on with his analysis on Labour and why they are going to lose the next election. Unfortunately he shows no remorse for their appalling record but his reasoning on why Labour will lose next year is sound.

      The Conservatives do get it now. They know that the talk about the EU referendum by Farage in real speak is about controlling immigration, abuse of the Human Rights Act, and all the other issues that concern voters outside the Metropolitan bubble. All these will be addressed in their next manifesto and together with a very well articulated attack on Labour, should ensure victory. They must, however, decease attacking UKIP. Let UKIP hoover up the disaffected Labour voters, the same ones who used to vote Thatcher.

      • southerner

        Dream on Shazza. The Camerluvvies and the rest of the Liblabcon are toast. They are all socialist Europhiles and have finally been found out. This is not just a protest vote. The kippers are here to stay and if it leads to the disintegration of the Camerloons and the formation of a conservative party instead of the current social democrats so much the better.

        • Kitty MLB

          It was impressive but 17% of the national vote.
          Nigel Farage has said he needs to put policies
          together, deal with the top end of his party
          And become more professional. Or in
          other words get ready to join the established
          parties in Westminster,whenever he gets a seat.
          And then he would be part of the establishment,
          he cannot do that by remaining outside
          chanting lib lab con and throwing stones.
          Oh and Shazza is right as usual.We will
          now as Conservatives steam ahead.
          Oh and thank you to Nigel Farage,
          Cameron has got the message and is a
          true Conservative Prime Minister
          when any crisis happens.

          • Shazza

            Yup. Farage has legitimised topics which were previously considered taboo. Now we can openly discuss and address them.
            Thanks Nigel and I look forward to seeing him in the HoC.

          • Alexsandr

            do your sums again. Look at the share of the vote in wards where UKIP stood. for they did not contest all seats.

            • Kaine

              They didn’t contest all wards, but neither did any party. Not contesting a ward tends to indicate you think you have no chance of winning. You don’t then get to pretend you would have done as well in those seats as you would in the places you stood.

      • Paddy

        I agree entirely.

      • Mike

        The Conservatives do get it now. Possibly but their actions are unlikely to match any rhetoric. The understand why UKIP grabbed a large share of the vote but Cameron is still Blair look a like and he wont deliver on changes between the UK and the EU as he hasn’t the power or means to do so.

        Only Farage has the cajones to call out the EU as the LibLabCon artists know their self serving interests are to be subservient to Brussels.

    • telemachus

      No
      Dire for Ukip
      All the hype
      In an election where all the issues were the EU- their subject
      All they can manage is 17%
      Does not translate to Westminster seats given our electoral system
      *
      As you will have gathered the team are buoyant today

      • Kitty MLB

        Oh come on Telemachus. Labour are just 2 points ahead of the Conservatives only a year before the election. Even your hero Balls
        said that was a problem.And admitted UKIP was a problem for them.

        • telemachus

          The 2% difference is equivalent to 12% when you factor in the Ukip splitting of the Tory Marginal’s vote

          • Alexsandr

            been to rotherham?

            • telemachus

              I know Rotherham well
              I sat in the 3 Horseshoes at the beginning of April and listened to the reprehensible chat after the meeting
              Pity the Guardian reporters were not there

        • Paddy

          They haven’t blamed the right wing media yet!

          Tessa Jowell at lunchtime giving it large………blaming the electorate for not seeing what Miliband had to offer.

          • weejonnie

            Oh – I thought the reason WAS the electorate seeing what Miliband has to offer.

        • Daidragon

          The Labour lead will increase as the UKIP effect wears off. The Tories are no way going to do better than they did in 2010.

          • Kitty MLB

            We will never give the matches back to those who caused
            our economic firestorm. UKIP will also replace Labour as
            the party of the working classes.

            • telemachus

              LOL

              • Kitty MLB

                Another early morning buzz from the resident
                wasp! The only reason why UKIP even exist is
                because of the arrogant elitism of some
                politicians. And instead of placing your head
                in the sand whilst the tide comes. Some
                humility would be an excellent idea.
                And what I said above will happen.

                • telemachus

                  I decry humility
                  The response to racist upstarts who lower the whole moral climate is robust attack by all means fair and foul
                  *
                  You my dear know well the vapidity of Farage and his acolytes
                  A grin with a pint of beer does not sort out education and health

                • sarah_13

                  It’s interesting you talk about racist upstarts. When I was helping in the london mayoral election for cchq calling people, several asian individuals I called, completely impromptu told me how they were voting labour and were labour supporters and that the jews were all voting for boris and the jews would make sure he won! I would like to know what labour is doing about “the racists” in the labour party “who lower the whole moral climate”. I remember feeling quite depressed that that sort of medieval irrational and hate filled anti-semitism actually existed in britain, a country historically so hospital to the jewish community. What are labour doing about this?

            • Daidragon

              It’s going to be hard to be the party of anything when you don’t have any power. UKIP can’t and won’t win any seats in the GE. The idea of Farage as champion of the working class is also hilarious. He’s an arch Thatcherite and free marketeer.

            • Daidragon

              Saying stuff over and over doesn’t make it true. The evidence is pretty strong that UKIP are hitting the Tories harder than lab. Much harder.

              • Ooh!MePurse!

                At the moment.

          • Mynydd

            Mr Cameron is already down on his 2010 result.

            • Ooh!MePurse!

              At the moment. Polls are a snapshot not a prediction.

      • Paddy

        You had better keep the young Miliband locked up then between now and the election! No more bacon butties.

        • telemachus

          May have turned you off
          But shows he is a man of the people

          • LucieCabrol

            LOL

            • telemachus

              Thanks Lucie
              I take that in the Cameron Brooks spirit

          • First L

            He’s Jewish – he ate pork. Hardly a man of the people – he just betrayed his entire race.

            • Alexsandr

              jewishness isnt a race, its a religion.

              • Bill_der_Berg

                For some purposes Jewishness is regarded as an ethnic identity. The right of return to Israel does not require religious belief, but on evidence of some Jewish ancestry.The latter requirement is not always rigidly applied, apparently.

              • First L

                Tell that to the Israelis.

              • Ooh!MePurse!

                Whatever. He looked like what he is.

      • Bill_der_Berg

        “In an election where all the issues were the EU- their subject”

        When EU membership was debated Clegg was given a bloody nose. That is why the liblabcons and their hacks decided to stick to stick to accusations of racism, homophobia etc. and to avoid talking about the EU.

        • telemachus

          All I would have to say is that the EU will be a trivial part of the May 2015 campaign

          Further as Charles Moore posted Thursday

          The latest Ipsos Mori poll has 54 per cent wanting to stay in (and 37 per cent wanting to get out), compared with 41 per cent (with 49 per cent outers) in September 2011.

          • Bill_der_Berg

            We will have to wait and see.

            Labour supporters are a bit too fond of war for my taste. They (and, perhaps, you?) returned Tony Blair for a third term, after the invasion of Iraq. Then again, anyone who knows the history of the party will not be too surprised by that.

            • Daidragon

              Cameron has taken two big foreign policy decisions this parliament. Both in support of Islamism. He got away with attacking Libya but thankfully Ed M stopped him bombing Syria.

              • Bill_der_Berg

                The Labour Party can be opposed to this or that war when out of office. It’s when they get their paws on power that they begin to see the need for military action.

                • Daidragon

                  Blair you mean. Harold Wilson kept us out of Vietnam, Brown got us out of Iraq and Ed stopped Cameron supplying Al Qaida an airforce in Syria, as we were in Libya.

                • Bill_der_Berg

                  You can’t unload it all on to Blair. He did not elect himself leader; he was there because the Labour Party wanted to keep him there – for three terms as PM, Iraq or no Iraq.

                  As for Brown, he fully supported the invasion of Iraq and, probably, the sale of military equipment to Libya, too.

          • Daidragon

            Yep. The Uk would definitely vote to stay in the EU.

      • Daidragon

        UKIP down 6% on their 2012 local election performance.

      • Inverted Meniscus

        Don’t panic, don’t panic! Fascist Labour’s very own corporal Jones is spouting lies and gibberish so Farage must be doing well.

    • Daidragon

      I think that projection was made before the London and other results came in. Lab currently on course for about 300 gains. Not bad considering UKIP are hogging the limelight at the moment.

    • Mynydd

      At 31% Labour has increased its percentage since the general election of 2010. At 29% Conservatives are down on its percentage since the 2010 general election. So you could say Mr Miliband has improved Labour’s standing, whereas Mr Cameron has damaged Conservative’s standing.

    • Daidragon

      Scotland didn’t vote, Wales didn’t vote. Two Labour strongholds. If (huge If) they break their usual cycle of being a mid term protest party before collapsing at the GE, then UKIP are going to nobble Cameron, not Labour

      • Crumbs

        Scotland is no longer a Labour stronghold. UKIP is your SNP.

        • Daidragon

          Labour got 44% of the Scottish vote in 2010. They might be SNP for Scottish parliament elections but they still vote lab in GE’s.

  • Smithersjones2013

    [Yawn] Harman on BBC. Its like listening to Grimm’s Fairy Tales……..

    On topic these seats were last fought in 2012 and in all three establishment parties case their vote share is down on 2012.

    Dirty Greasy Establishment Parties on the slide

    • Shazza

      When I see Harpicperson on the telly, all I can think of is PIE. I hope I am not the only one.

      • LucieCabrol

        I’m willing to go with it

      • Alexsandr

        we must remember millipede endorsed her so he is a paedophile apologists too.

        • Daidragon

          Mental.

          • Kaine

            You must be new here…

      • Bill_der_Berg

        That was a strange business. Victorian reformers fought hard to have the age of consent raised from 13 to 16. Hewitt and probably Harperson wanted to reverse the change. That’s the progressive mindset for you.

  • Malcolm McCandless

    Labour will not win in 2015. These election results are a disaster for Ed Miliband.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      How so? They’re ahead, and comfortably.

      • Daidragon

        There’s a weird spinning of these results today. Lab made decent gains despite UKIP. Far worse set of results for the Tories.

        • Colonel Mustard

          Yes, I noticed your weird spinning on behalf of Labour further up the page.

        • LucieCabrol

          I certainly noticed that the muslim vote in London was very strong.

          • Daidragon

            Most Londoners are Labour.

  • Maverick Ways
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