Coffee House

Second poll lead is perfectly- timed gift for Tories

13 May 2014

9:04 AM

13 May 2014

9:04 AM

The inconvenience of the Newark by-election notwithstanding, the Tories have had the perfect preparation for a drubbing in next week’s European elections. They’ve told everyone who even stops for a second on the pavement next to them that they’re expecting a difficult time and thus have managed the expectations of the party both at a parliamentary and grassroots level. They’ve seen the increased media scrutiny of Ukip as a sign it is ok to attack the party, albeit not using insulting language. They’ve tried to keep MPs busy with campaign days, rather than plotting in Portcullis House.

And now they’ve reached the point Labourites feared, when the two parties have crossed over in the polls. As James said yesterday, the Ashcroft poll showing the Tories ahead will help the party leadership argue that whatever happens next week, next year’ selection is looking much brighter a prospect. And today’s Guardian poll putting the Conservatives on 33 and Labour on 31 (Ukip 15 and Lib Dem 13) means the leadership can argue that this could be a trend.

The question for Labour is how well the party can manage this, whether trend or wobble. Its MPs are more disciplined than the Tories , but they are slowly becoming a little less confident and a little more nervy. The arrival of David Axelrod in London today at least gives the impression the party isn’t sticking its fingers in its ears.

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Show comments
  • Chris Bond

    Most journalist in the Spectator and telegraph really are Conservative party tapeworms.

  • Kennybhoy

    “… albeit not using insulting language.”

    Tell me you are having a fucking laugh?

    PS NOT a UKIP supporter.

  • Malcolm McCandless

    There seems to be another poll commissioned by the Coalition which has not been made public.

    It appears that the Cabinet commissioned a poll on the Scottish referendum conducted by Ipsos-Moris that according to insiders shows a huge surge in support for the Yes campaign.

    This poll costing £50k was not taxpayers money well spent because Coalition ministers did not get the answer they wanted.

    I wonder if that was the reason that Alistair Darling has been dumped by the Better Together campaign.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      Need a link to that bombshell.

  • Smithersjones2013

    And today’s Guardian poll putting the Conservatives on 33

    So little Izzy thinks that it is a ‘gift’ that the Tories are polling 0.6% above that which Michael Howard polled in 2005. Oh how meagre Tory expectations have become. Some mandate that is. Now I know political parties are so self-serving and mercenary that any lead is considered wonderful but having less than 20% from the support of the eligible voting population is hardly something that should make Tories wet.

  • asalord

    First we’ll see ukip winning the EU elections in England, then we’ll see
    the tories becoming favourites for the 2015 Westminster elections.
    It just gets better and better for the Yes campaign in Scotland. Bless you, England.

    • e2toe4

      That’s such a negative scaremongering basis for an argument…

  • alabenn

    Would it not be delicious irony that Cameron and his halfwit henchmen, end up having to help or at least pray that UKIP continue to gather support.
    Labours poor showing is down to Farage and co, they are the Tories only hope of a majority next year.
    How they act between now and then will determine their future, any more infantile and derogatory comments by Cameron and that dreadful creature Soubry will scupper their chance.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      Likely true, but UKIP will trap them into a tit-for-tat, and the Cameroons won’t be able to help themselves. They’ll blurt out the bubble script and away we’ll go.

  • Malcolm McCandless

    A perfectly timed gift for the YES campaign in Scotland I would say.

    Four months to go to the referendum vote and the growing reality of a return of another Tory government at Westminster for the next five years, and possibly for the foreseeable future, will concentrate minds wonderfully in Scotland.

    The impact on Labour supporters and voters in Scotland will be telling. Already angry that Labour, their party, is part of the Tory backed and funded Better Together campaign, the thought that if they vote NO will become the icing on the electoral cake for the resurgent Tory party will send shivers down their spines.

    Not even the presence of Alistair Darling, Douglas Alexander and Gordon Brown is going to be enough to assuage Scottish fears. The whole campaign message has been suddenly reduced to this;

    “A NO vote is a vote for the Tories”.

    • Tony Quintus

      So, let them go if they want to, all shipbuilding will move to England and Northern Ireland, they’ll get the oil but all the best gas fields are in English waters. They’ll get a one sided seperation agreement (as it would have to be to get through westminster) and then rUK can be wonderfully entertained watching Salmond drive the country into the ground.

    • Kennybhoy

      Do you cut and paste this effort around the blogs Maister McC?

  • swatnan

    UKIP is in poll position to take Newark, but then they’ll lose it in 2015. Pity Nige goot the frights about standing as it would have been his omnly opportunity to get to Westmister, brief as it would be.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      You’re certainly terrified over this UKIP non-threat, lad.

    • Tony Quintus

      How are UKIP in poll position to take Newark? the Tory candidate has been on the ground for months and the UKIP candidate has no ties to the area.

  • you_kid

    We note the fools have gone for a bit of blue sky thinking now rather than a dash of green. Le roi s’amuse.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      You’re even loonier in this sockpuppet than the above one, lad.

      • you_kid

        We will have to live with your persistent state of deluded obsession, lad. We also gather one of your sockpuppets has bitten the dust. Fair deuce. On s’est tellement amusés.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          …you seem to try to wax profound frogophone in this loonier sockpuppet though, which is amusing.

  • colliemum

    Amazing, isn’t it: Lab and Con, with the help of the supine hack pack, are now fighting elections not with political arguments, but with polls: “my poll is bigger than yours, so there!”.
    This looks to be a new form of electioneering, and I think LabCon election managers prefer it because they have huge difficulties to give us clear, political arguments for or against. It also means they don’t have to engage with the fruitcakes/little englanders/bigots/xenophobes/homophobes. Their hope is that enough swing voters and ‘undecided’ will come scurrying back into their arms because, as we’ve been told by them, ‘people love winners’.
    After all, it’s not about political arguments and differences any longer, it’s about winning the X-Factor …

  • jamesbarn

    I think pollsters are perhaps seeing too much in past results and applying them to comfortable predictions for 2015. Two years ago UKIP was only seen as a small irrelevant political party inhabited by such a small number of the electorate that the media and other parties could insult and ridicule with impunity. However since the last GE when UKIP polled only 3% there has been and is a fast growing resentment about immigration and our creeping loss of sovereignty to Brussels. This resentment has been transformed after Farage took apart Clegg’s arguments in the TV debates. The general public now know beyond any doubt and regardless of Cameron’s ultra spin that a) he cannot control our borders and b) he cannot deny benefits to anyone from the EU or for that matter anywhere else. They also realise that this unprecedented and uncontrollable rise in immigration has overloaded our schools social housing and NHS not to mention the fierce competition in the jobs market. Cameron has claimed in the last couple of days to have cut immigration and it is this propensity he has to assume that the electorate are stupid that turns many against his party. The Internet now is a means whereby the truth is available as never before and the political elite are exposed. Yes there may well be some who return to their old allegiances in 2015 but there is nothing to even remotely suggest that the growth of UKIP support will slow. No one even UKIP themselves were prepared for their spectacular rise in popularity or even dreamed of the possibility they could win a national election. The disregard of UKIP’s influence in the 2015 GE is I fear based more on hope than reality. If the orchestrated smear campaign is failing (which it undoubtedly is) then one could ask what would be the catalyst to turn voters against UKIP and expect them to vote for the politics they are abandoning today en-mass?
    Interesting time ahead I think.

    • Cyril Sneer

      Our beloved media regard UKIP as ‘Far Right’ and yet the BBC in their article on the Trade Union House fire in the Ukraine regard Right Sector as ‘Right Wing’, not ‘far right’, not ‘neo-nazis’, but ‘Right Wing’.

      So there you have it, UKIP are far right for wanting an EU referendum and controlled immigration whilst jew hating mass murdering Neo-Nazis installed by the US government in the Ukraine are just like the Conservative party according to the BBC.

    • Grey Wolf

      James, you have some sensible things to say.
      But it will greatly help if you could break long narratives down to smaller paragraphs.

    • Sentinel

      Is it not a possibility that UKIP’s support has to some extent benefited from the protest vote going to them rather than the LibDems?

  • HookesLaw

    UKIP? Why waste a vote?

    ‘Ukip is the laziest party in Europe when it comes to turning up to vote in the European parliament, according to an analysis of participation.
    MEPs from the anti-EU party took part in only six out of ten votes in the main chamber from 2009 to 2014, compared with nearly nine out of ten votes by Lib Dem members.
    Ukip’s 61.1 per cent voting average put it bottom of 76 European parties with three or more MEPs. Three of the six lowest individual places among the 764 MEPs went to Ukip members.’
    ‘Bottom of the 764 MEPs for taking part in European parliament votes was Godfrey Bloom’
    ‘Ukip’s leader and deputy leader were also in the EU’s bottom six for participation. The most assiduous British MEP was Charles Tannock of the Conservatives — on 96.4 per cent and 31st place overall’
    ‘There were originally 13 MEPs elected for Ukip, but five were sacked. UKIP refused to comment.’

    …From ‘The Times’ (£)

    • @PhilKean1

      .
      All British patriots should kneel and give thanks to you.

      For you have reinforced our belief that UKIP are, indeed, a committed party of patriots dedicated to Britain’s national interest.

      Now, you are an old-school political supporter who thinks, or doesn’t think – (no offence) – in a completely different way to those of us who have Britain’s national interest as their first priority.

      Ok, let me give you a clue as to how you have helped us out this morning.

      The last thing we want from British MEPs is their cooperation in helping to empower an outdated, corrupt and anti-democratic EU bloc.
      And thanks to your information, I can see that UKIP are doing exactly what we want of them.
      .

      • HookesLaw

        Patriots? Traitors more like – just like you. Instead of turning up to argue what they supposedy believe in or defend british interests they skulk off and spend their expenses; and once there they do not care about UKIP, just the gravy train.

        • @PhilKean1

          Illogicality and hypocrisy – Hooky is thy name !

          The gravy train that, it seems, you think is only exploited by UKIP?

          A gravy train that was specifically designed to keep national Governments voting to sustain and augment the EU – with huge salaries, expenses and pensions for those loyal MEPs whose interest it is to vote for the EU at every juncture?

          Oh, and UKIP’s raison d’être is, at best, the EU’s destruction and – at worst – Britain’s extrication.

          How does that fit in with your gravy train accusation?
          .

          • HookesLaw

            UKIP voting record terrible. UKIP MEPs sacked for various reasons. UKIP under investigation over expenses.
            Why vote UKIP?
            Don’t expect any effort to back Britain in the EU from them. Too busy polishing up their various bigotries and hatreds at home.

            Meantime – who would vote for Roger Helmer in a by-election?
            http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625285/Married-UKIP-politician-70-accused-taking-young-female-researcher-strip-club-threatening-trash-reputation-told-pressuring-resign.html

            • @PhilKean1

              It is nice to see that he is a normal, red-blooded man who likes the company of women, for a change.

              Heck, and so do I. Might have taken the little thing there myself – and bought her a drink, or two, or three – if you get my drift 🙂

              Oh, and do you think the EU will ever publish their accounts for scrutiny?
              .

              • HookesLaw

                Never miss an opportunity to get in a homophobic comment I see.
                We all know where kippers come from.

                • @PhilKean1

                  Oh, I missed that. Can you point it out for me?

                  Don’t forget to vote for your UKIP candidate.
                  .

                • The_Missing_Think

                  You spoke of hetrosexuality, without immediatly praising hommosexuals (peace be upon them)… therefore, you broke one of the Highpriest Hook’s pe-ce religious doctrines.

                  You are guilty of extreme blasphemy, in his atheist mind.

                • wudyermucuss

                  Heterophobe!!!!!!!!!
                  Heterophobe!!!!!!!!!
                  Etc etc,ad nauseum,ad infinitum.

                  where kippers come from –
                  Everywhere.
                  Millions of us.
                  Only bigots would oppose such a massively supported party.

                • Cyril Sneer

                  Do you have a problem with gays?

            • The_Missing_Think

              The MEPs overwhelmingly voted to reject the EU budget cut… the EU commissioners simply laughed to themselves, and over-ruled the silly little MEP vote.

              It’s all a farce, the MEP votes are powerless and meaningless, so why bother, when all power is in the unelected EU commissioners hands?

              Understand?

              • @PhilKean1

                Like the EU’s proxies here in the UK, he doesn’t want to understand.

                The idea is better than the reality. The narrow-minded benefit for some outweighs the damage suffered by the many.

                The EU is an outdated and failed concept. It seeks to replicate a system that has failed before, and is failing in China.

                He should watch and understand from current events in Ukraine.
                Peoples’ national identity and self-determination is something that they will go to extremes to protect, or restore. Does he think that rationale only extends to people outside the EU bloc?
                .

              • HookesLaw

                If you are suggesting we do not need the paraphernalia of a EU parliament then I agree with you.
                But it hardly excuses UKIP MEPs taking the lazy option and ignoring British interests.

                • @PhilKean1

                  Depends on one’s definition of “British interests”.

                  British interests are served by the Westminster Parliament’s Sovereignty in all matters pertaining to the construction and administration of UK law. You, somehow, seem to think differently.

                  And until Blair’s Government effectively blackmailed the Queen for her cooperation in abolishing Common Treason, there would have been a name for people such as yourself.
                  .

                • The_Missing_Think

                  You obviously didn’t understand, “simply laughed to themselves, and over-ruled the silly little MEP vote”. Why vote, when it is powerless and makes no difference?

    • Mr Creosote

      They probably got bored turning up to vote for the avalanche of largely useless legislation that gets rubber-stamped through the place on a daily basis.

  • Ulysses Returns

    Rather than Ukippers slagging off Tories here, and Labtards slagging off Ukip and the Conservatives in CiF with both camps having their heads buried in the sand, may I make a prediction? Unlike the un-democrats across the Channel, the UK has generally favouired a two-party system with a protest/anti-establishment section that has favoured Liberal/SDP/Lib Dem and now UKIP, at various stages and levels; but when it counts, at a General Election, voters tend to revert to type. It has been apparent to me for some time now that the Labtard lead over the Conservatives was ‘soft’, distorted by a large number of cross-over Libtards, and a large number of, normally Tory, voters defecting to UKIP. As we approach decision days (the Europeans and the GE), reality will dawn and the LDs will recover some (not all) of their voters from Labtard and the Conservatives will get back some (not all) Ukip votes. Those magical floating voters will look at an improved economy and decide that those who fixed it are a better choice than the Muppets who wrecked it and the Conservatives will win in 2015 with between 38-40% of the franchise. Labtard will not improve on 2010 and will end on less that 29% and the big winners in share will be Ukip. The Libtards will not do as bad as many might hope but will be a long way south of the 13% they got in 2010 and will finish a poor fourth.

    • Denis_Cooper

      Labour down 6%
      UKIP up 4%
      Tories up 1%
      LibDems up 1%

      The days when it could be claimed that UKIP was only pulling support away from the Tories are clearly long past.

    • dalai guevara

      Well put, sir.
      The LD lead was ‘soft’ indeed. Now the UKIP progress is found to be equally ‘soft’ and most well-informed political commentators have long understood why that is the case.
      We have seen these mood swings many times. They are the expression of a more or less passionate electorate. We complain about the lack of political activism, yet when it finally occurs we get the hammer out and nail it back to the ground. There is a new word for this kind of thing. I just conceived it. It’s called the Two-Party-Is-Everything Schizophrenic Disorder.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        Is there anybody, anywhere, who understands what this socialist nutter is blathering about?

        • dalai guevara

          The adequacy of the FPTP system will be thoroughly tested and scrutinised once again. The UKIP performance at the Euros (and the seats they gain in a PR system) will be directly compared to a dismal outcome in 2015.
          Then heads will be mounted on spikes.
          Those displaying signs of Two-Party-System-Is-Everything Schizophrenic Disorder will be served on a first come first served basis.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            It’s like one of those magic 8 balls. You throw it and the words come out and they might even form phrases, disjointed unintelligible phrases though they might be.

            Are there any magic 8 ball translator socialist nutters about?

        • Inverted Meniscus

          No because he is a socialist nutter. It is impossible to make sense of socialist nutters and nuttery whatever language you employ.

    • Kennybhoy

      Generally sound analysis. Although if I were a betting man I would put my money on another hung parliament.

  • Denis_Cooper

    I’ll point out again that Labour only got a lead over the Tories because about 60% of those who voted for the LibDems at the 2010 general election had deserted them by early 2011, and most of those people switched their support to Labour.

    That process is clearly visible on the left hand side of the charts here, with the red line sloping up almost as steeply as the yellow line sloped down:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls.html

    And now some of those voters who floated from the LibDems to Labour have been floating over to UKIP, although that is not recognised when pollsters only ask them how they had voted back in 2010; so to that extent UKIP is now beginning to perform a similar service for the Tories as the LibDems did previously, diverting support away from Labour.

    • The_Missing_Think

      Your analysis is only valid, if you’re trusting enough to believe, that dirty underhand tactics, seen over and over again, don’t play a major role in Britih politics.

      You’ll be defending the never addressed banana republic 20 votes per bedsit postal scams next.

      ;;//Electoral Calculus software v2.00

      ::// Normal code goes here.

      0320H Call Knt_or_Lord_?

      Print_result:
      ::// Normal code resumes here

      Knt_or_Lord_?:

      Riggit:
      0540H Sub UKIP_vote, 0001dec, no carry
      0541H If UKIP_vote > than LLC, GOTO Riggit
      0542H If UKIP_vote < 15% GOTO Print_result:
      0543H GOTO Riggit
      _____

      Undeniably, for UKIP to gain zero seats whilst recieving three times the votes of the LDs, proves that the software – you trust so unconditionally – has to have 'weighting' algorithms in it, to produce the results it does.

      So what makes you so certain, that the default behind the scenes favours, aren't involved here as well?

      No poll has ever over-estimated the UKIP vote, always at least 5% lower than the real life vote… just a coincidence, I suppose…

      • Denis_Cooper

        I’ve no idea why you should assume that I unconditionally trust the prediction model on Electoral Calculus, but in any case that has nothing to do with my comment which is about charts of empirical opinion poll results and not about predicting the outcome of an election. The undeniable fact is that LibDem support collapsed after they went into coalition with the Tories, and it is unlikely to be a mere coincidence that support for Labour rose as support for the LibDems fell; more recently, over the past two years or so, the charts do not confirm the conventional wisdom on this site that the rise of UKIP must hurt the Tories more than Labour; now we have an opinion poll where a 6% loss of support by Labour has been accompanied by a 4% rise in support for UKIP but only a 1% rise in support for the Tories; this is actually not the first time that a poll has shown the Tories closing up on Labour because UKIP has taken support away from Labour, but it is the clearest so far.

        • The_Missing_Think

          “I’ve no idea why you should assume that I unconditionally trust the prediction model on
          Electoral Calculus”
          _____

          Because you constantly post a link to it, and use as the cornerstone of any analysis
          sandwedged between the link, that’s why.

          And you’ve just done it all over again. Proving my point.

          Councils have deep pockets for ‘fact finding’ jollies in sunny lands in mid-winter, but
          can’t afford overnight counts?

          Our ballot boxes are padlock free, relying on 4 tie-wraps that can be cut by wire cutters
          in 1 or 2 seconds each. And re-threaded in less than 10 seconds each.

          Why no padlocks? Why no accountable security? Why the secretive storage overnight?

          The EU ‘result’ will be announced 3 days after it’s been concluded, there was also a
          convenient 17 hour delay in the AV ref.

          It all stinks to me, and I know for a fact, that they’re not honourble or trustworthy in the slightest, come the crunch, they play to win, win or win… whereas you still trust them, and their vast array of k or L? chums.

          Yeah sure, you’re not being ground prepared duped, with the appropriate polls .

          Of course not. We’re better than that, aren’t we?

          • Denis_Cooper

            I’m just come back from delivering leaflets, I’m hot and I want my lunch, and I find more of your rambling.

            If you could even be bothered to click on that link you would find that is to the page with the opinion poll charts, not to the page where an attempt can be made to predict how shares of votes would translate into seats won in a general election; so, no, I haven’t “just done it all over again”, and whatever your point may be it is not proved.

            If you are saying that potentially there is ample scope for ballot rigging, and that enemies of UKIP would not be above attempting that, then I would agree with you and in fact have said the same myself.

            But what has that got do with my comment about the pattern of the opinion polls? Nothing whatsoever.

            If you want to make your own comment about how the ballot may well be rigged then do so – the comments box is at the top of the thread.

            • The_Missing_Think

              “there is ample scope for ballot rigging, and that enemies of UKIP would not be above attempting that, then I would agree with you”
              +
              “what has that got do with my comment about the pattern of the opinion polls?”
              _____

              So what you’re actually saying then, is that ballot rigging could happen, but opinion poll rigging couldn’t happen?

              Even though ballot rigging, is a far more serious crime?

              Consistent logic isn’t really your forte is it?

              And don’t you dare cheek me with your cheap sneermongering quips about rambling, when you actually agree with said rambling, and simultaneously present weak emotion based logic, that flakes to dust under scrutiny.

              Just keep clinging on to nursey, rather than face reality, you weak old fool.

              Enjoy your turnip soup.

              • Denis_Cooper

                Oh, so now the inane rambling turns into personal abuse.
                Just use the box at the top to make your own comment.

                • The_Missing_Think

                  And who are you, to order me about?

                  You started the insults with, “rambling”.

                  Remember? Don’t dish it out, if you can’t take it.

                  How’s the turnip soup going?

                • Denis_Cooper

                  So, in your first comment:

                  “You’ll be defending the never addressed banana republic 20 votes per bedsit postal scams next.”

                  was not in any way gratuitously insulting?

                  I’m too busy to waste any more of my time on you; if you want to say any more then the comments box is at the top.

                • The_Missing_Think

                  No mate, you’re not ordering me about, it’s called free speech in a society of equals… you ok with that concept today?

                  And stop going off on a thin skinned tangent, as an excuse to hide from the ugly truth, shooting the messenger does look rather weak.

              • the viceroy’s gin

                The difference between vote counting and political polling is substantial. One can agree that postal voting is a questionable area, and may require more scrutiny. Government would have to do this, and should.

                Political polling is available for our scrutiny, right now. We can dismantle a political poll, if we’re willing to take the time. It’s really not that difficult, and a bogus poll generally jump right out at you. You can tell when you first pick at it, the billowing clouds of stink come right out at you.

                Poll aggregators such as that electoralcalculus site are taking averages of all appropriate polls. Yes, there can be bogus data mixed in, but the averaging of them all tends to rub the corners off the charlatans’ manipulations. It’s to be used with discretion, but the averaging is a mitigating factor, and our own political judgement also mitigates.

                But in the main, postal voting and political polling are much different things, and should be treated differently. .

                .

                • The_Missing_Think

                  So your adament that it’s totally impossible to rig an opinion poll, because data bases of previous responses are never kept on computer? Or could be fished descretely?

                  Yeah… sure. You know nothing about what lurks behind the veneer of ‘decency’ in Juntaland.

                  Whereas I do, and I’ve got conclusive evidence, thanks to things like small digital dictaphones and vid cameras.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  No, rigging an opinion poll is quite possible. And it’s also quite possible that pollsters screw up along the way when generating a poll. Either can be exposed, with proper scrutiny. I can’t make the call that Ashcroft’s poll yesterday is rigged or screwed up unintentionally or what might be the story. All I can say is that the methodology and internals of that poll are opaque and confused, and I’d be very suspicious of it. Personally, if I was advising a political campaign, I’d recommend junking that poll altogether.

                  But that’s the point, if we take our time with it, we can dismantle any poll. They cannot hide, if they show us their work.

                  Now the mysterious stuff you mention, that will always be present. It’s just a matter of finding the proper tools to expose it.

                • The_Missing_Think

                  (a) “No, rigging an opinion poll is quite possible.”
                  +
                  (b) “But that’s the point, if we take our time with it, we can dismantle any poll. They cannot hide, if they show us their work.”
                  _____

                  I see another rambled contradiction, it can’t be both.

                  Which one is your final answer please, (a) or (b)?

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Yes, it can be both. Are you just being argumentative, or what? Maybe you need to go lie down?

                • The_Missing_Think

                  Yeah I am, England is dying fast, it’s our watch, and I am not very happy about what has happened to it. And just like St Jesus Mandela, I am unapologetically loyal to my own race. Which has been crimalised by the establishment, whilst they worship Mandela.

                  So I don’t trust the open and proudly disloyal establishment, or anything they contol.

                  Especially establishment polls, that are very convenient for the establishment. This is why I abrasively challenged the automatic – foolish – presumption of reliability.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  I don’t believe anybody in this discussion made any automatic foolish presumption of reliability of any polls.

                • The_Missing_Think

                  Then we’ll have to disagree then, as I see the indepth, lengthy analysed ramifications, as taking them / it, as reliable.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  No, there is no disagreement, unless you can support your assertions by quoting where anybody in here has said what you’re claiming.

                • The_Missing_Think

                  Here’s the original quote whereby Denis makes a large reality assumption, based on a ‘weighted’ piece of software, that produces zero UKIP seats, despite UKIP getting over double the LD vote. I’ve highligted the assumptions that hinge on this software. It was this comment made by Denis that got me thinking about the software in question, as he is trusting it to be a reliable and accurate tool of prediction, despite the unprecedented, unknown 4 horse race factor or any other:

                  Full Quote:
                  _____

                  There’s an opinion poll in the Observer today which has UKIP on 20% support, and that is
                  not for the forthcoming EU Parliament elections but for the next general election.

                  http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

                  Labour 33%, that gets them 347 MPs
                  Tories 29%, that gets them 249 MPs
                  LibDems 9%, that gets them 26 MPs
                  But UKIP 20%, that gets them zero MPs.

                  In fact UKIP would need to add maybe 4% more before it started to get any MPs, and even then the seats which are identified as having fallen to UKIP seem very unlikely cases.

                  There is clearly something wrong with our present system of representative democracy when the political views of a fifth or even a quarter of the electorate can be completely unrepresented in Parliament.

                  End Quote.

                  http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/culturehousedaily/2014/05/ukip-and-the-vicious-politics-of-eurovision/#comment-1379062290
                  _____

                  Denis isn’t questioning the software he is using, he is trusting it to accurately predict reality, to the point of critism of the real life system. The first comment I made to Denis on this thread, was to make him try and be less trusting of ‘weighted’ software accuracy, in uncharted 4 horse race waters, or in general.

                  Got it?

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  You have not supported your assertions by quoting where anybody in here has said what you’re claiming. Now, you may think that’s what has been posted in here. I haven’t read it. And flooding the zone with words isn’t making your case, lad .

                  Political polling is a tool, and nothing more. If your claim is that it’s given weight based on the level of scrutiny applied, I agree with you. The only poll that matters occurs on election day, as they say. But along the way, we take other polls, and they will have varying levels of validity. I don’t think any knowledgeable observer says lives should be staked on the validity of each of them, as you appear to be saying.

                • The_Missing_Think

                  You ask for a quote… voila… you recieve the full quote, with the link, and a detailed explanation.

                  But you reject it as inadmissible, on the technical grounds that there is no continuity between two political threads, a mere 48 hours apart.

                  Such desperate wilful straw clutching, renders it pointless to continue. ‘Flood’ over.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  No, you provided a bunch of blowfunk. Sorry.

                  I get it that you’re making assertions, but that’s what they will have to remain, lad.

                • The_Missing_Think

                  Then you’re best off sticking to your troll the troll level, with your worn out goat joke.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Well, who knows what I’m best off doing, but you have done nothing but make empty assertions, lad.

                • Kennybhoy

                  Jesus wept tvg, I’ve never seen this side of you before! lol

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  I’ve seen the drunk side of you inappropriately blathering, lad. It’s annoying and stalker like, but these things do happen on the internet, I suppose.

                • Kennybhoy

                  Thinking Head Worzel…? 🙂

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …and it must be happening again.

  • @PhilKean1

    .
    Labour are dying. UKIP will become mainstream.

    It now appears that the outcome of the 2015 election is dependent on how successfully Cameron and Miliband are in preventing their supporters haemorrhaging away to UKIP.
    .

    • Denis_Cooper

      Both parties have treated their supporters with contempt.

      • @PhilKean1

        They have. But core Conservatives have been persecuted and disregarded by their own leadership.
        .

        • Inverted Meniscus

          Labour persecuted the entire country between 1997 and 2910.

          • wudyermucuss

            A thousand years of Labour.
            Shudder.

            • Inverted Meniscus

              I was going to correct my typo but as it felt like a thousand years, I will let the comment stand without amendment.

        • Denis_Cooper

          Same with Labour, remember that the leadership regard some of their staunchest supporters as “bigots”.

  • @PhilKean1

    .
    What do you mean – “how do Labour manage this? ”

    What can Labour do? What leg do they have to stand on?

    I mean, who in their right minds would vote Labour in the 21st century? All the more tragic, then, that Cameron thought Labour’s succession of election wins from 1997 meant that he had to make the Tory party Britain’s 3rd Socialist force in order to get elected.

    Remember Cameron’s pledge to stick to Labour’s spending plans – followed by a succession of other left-wing proposals designed to appeal to an electorate who, in reality, were some way to the right of where he thought they were?

    It now looks as if Labour are dying as a political force, and not before time. I cringe with embarrassment each time I hear their leader or his spokesman confidently espouse ideas and solutions that can be dismantled by a junior debating group.
    .

    • UniteAgainstSocialism

      “who in their right minds would vote Labour in the 21st century?”

      immigrants?

      • @PhilKean1

        All the more reason to regain control of Britain’s borders.
        .

      • richarddorset

        Useless public sector workers?

      • richarddorset

        Benefits claimants?

      • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

        80%

    • http://batman-news.com Whizjet

      Great post – sadly immigrants and Brown’s client state will continue to vote for anything wearing a red rosette.

    • telemachus

      A post of complacent propaganda
      Labour are far from dying
      Further with the effect of UKIP the Tories will need a lead of 5% over Labour to negate the split of the vote in the 43 Tory marginals

      • Kennybhoy

        “A post of complacent propaganda”

        Yup.

        Jesus wept that two up votes to you in one day you wee keech…

      • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

        True, labour are dead.

        • telemachus

          Remind you of that next May 8

          • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

            Don’ bother, I intend to move abroad if labour get in.

    • Kennybhoy

      “…an electorate who, in reality, were some way to the right of where he thought they were?”

      Evidence?

    • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

      The spectator is beginning to sound like RT or some other propaganda
      outfit, the Tories are dead and gone, all labour have to do is say “Tory
      toff” and they get elected, and no matter how many more old etonians
      they put in the cabinet they don’t seem to be able to shake off this issue,
      get over it, move on, back the people’s army.

  • Shorne

    Well as the old saying goes one swallow doesn’t make a summer, yesterday’s UK polling report shows a projected majority of 32 for Labour in 2015. The bookies, always more reliable favour Labour as well.

    • Colonel Mustard

      We’ll see. I’d love to see your smug noses rubbed in some political diversity.

      • Shorne

        Same here

        • Colonel Mustard

          Not the same. Tories are not boasting incessantly about winning nor did they unleash mass immigration on the English for party political ends.

  • UniteAgainstSocialism

    Its not the Tories being popular with the electorate, its just Milibore and Ed No Balls aren’t trusted by the voters to lead the country

    • Denis_Cooper

      Above all it appears to be UKIP starting to draw support away from Labour to a greater extent than it is drawing more support away from the Tories. For the past two years or so there have been strong indications that the increases in support for UKIP have been at the expense of both the Tories and Labour, and to comparable extents, but now it may be that UKIP is wearing down Labour more than the Tories.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        A cautious tick up.

        Transient polling data is always going to be questioned, particularly a year out from a GE. I wish I had the time to review the regional breakdowns of a few of these recent polls, but I guess we’ll have to wait and see what the council elections reveal, if anything.

        • Kennybhoy

          Jesus wept tvg this actually makes sense. You see what you can do when you engage your brain before your urge to chuck insults…?

          • the viceroy’s gin

            Sober up, lad.

            • Kennybhoy

              You remind me of Barbara Euphan Todd’s “Worzel Gummidge”. Try making more us of your thinking head rather than the troll head. There’s a good chap! 🙂

              • the viceroy’s gin

                You remind me of any typical drunk, mouthing off. Sober up, lad.

    • Colonel Mustard

      I wish your pseudonym represented an organisation that monitored socialists and their public meetings, protesting against them with chanting and placards for all the human misery they have caused in this country and others.

      • allymax bruce

        The best way to obliterate ‘Soclialism’, is to raise living standards of the ordinary people; like iScotland is doing.
        Scotch Labour are Finished in iScotland.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          That’s what you think. Lab lords will be up there shortly for prima nota, just like the old days.

          • Colonel Mustard

            This is true. If Scotland secedes I can foresee Labour putting a lot of effort into making it their squatting ground. The raison d’etre for SNP being somewhat diminished.

          • Kennybhoy

            Depends on what electoral system is used.

            No’ that Scotland is going anywhere soon! 🙂

  • Bert3000

    UKIP on 15%? But no, surely the ‘people’s army’ are marching to victory?

    • Denis_Cooper

      Up 4% from 11% to 15%, on the way this poll is conducted; so, yes, the march continues. Meanwhile, the Tories and the LibDems both gain 1%.

    • Colonel Mustard

      The march to victory is in the public domain though, supported by voters. It’s not a Long March by socialist skulkers pretending to be what they are not.

  • Denis_Cooper

    So will the Tory party decide to desist from its long campaign against UKIP, now that UKIP has helped the Tories to get a slender lead over Labour in the opinion polls for the next general election?

    I can’t say anything about how the results in Lord Ashcroft’s poll have changed
    from the last time because there was no last time, this is the first of a set of polls
    he has started to conduct, but look at the changes in the Guardian/ICM poll:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/support-labour-drops-tories-lead-guardian-icm-poll

    Labour is down 6% from last time, and where has that 6% of lost support gone?

    Well, the Tories are up 1%, and the LibDems are up 1%, but UKIP is up 4%; in fact the only two changes which have a reasonable statistical significance are:

    Labour support down 6%
    UKIP support up 4%

    The Tories have not actually done much to get their lead, as UKIP has done most of the work for them by pulling Labour down; so will the Tories now conclude that it would be in their interests to stand down that special unit set up to slag off UKIP?

    • John Dalton

      I agree but I’m not counting on it. The Cameroons, the MSM, the BBC – even The Spec – still think that by smearing and belittling UKIP they’ll put people off voting for them, despite their every attempt driving more supporters in UKIP’s direction.

      • HookesLaw

        UKIP are riven by splits with MEPs quitting or being sacked and counsellors ditto.
        And of course we now have the breakaway ‘UKIP’ party putting up candidates.
        And in Lincolnshire we have ‘UKIP Lincolnshire’ as a breakaway. I note all 16 UKIP councillors refused to sign an anti racism declaration.

        • wudyermucuss

          Excellent.
          Racism is code for “we will obliterate your culture and you will not only allow it,you will welcome it,applaud it.”
          It is a modern version of Maoist thought control.

        • Denis_Cooper

          And I note that Cameron continues to endorse the UAF thugs even though their representative on TV yesterday actually has a criminal conviction for inciting violence. I’ll repeat that: the present British Prime Minister is perfectly content to endorse an organisation with proven tendencies to political violence, one of whose most prominent figures actually has a criminal conviction for inciting violence. Proud of that, are you?

          • the viceroy’s gin

            The LibLabCon socialist cabal will of course have its violent fascist arm, as socialism always does. Street action, intimidation, threats, silencing… that’s what you have such as the UAF around for. Criminal violence isn’t an exception to socialism, it is part and parcel of it.

        • BobH2003

          “Riven by splits” in your dreams!
          Grow up HookesLaw, Ukip is not in the slightest degree split. That there are other copycat groups is just yet another one to add to the pathetic attacks on Ukip.
          Do we care? LOL. Every attack only multiplies our votes. The voter is wiser than you dimwits think, so keep all the free advertising a-rolling.

    • Mike Barnes

      Brilliant isn’t it.

      Labour think they’re on to something with their cost of living stuff, house prices, rents, jobs, low pay etc. However they’re only giving half the story. They completely ignore immigration (intellectual cowardice, not confidence Ed) leaving an open goal for Nigel Farage to say how too much immigration leads to the cost of living crisis for normal people.

      With Tories unelectable in large parts of the north, there’s only one alternative to Labour.

      • wudyermucuss

        they’re only giving half the story –
        Like how they’re going to pay for it all?
        A repeat of the cataclysm last time they held power?

        • Colonel Mustard

          How they are going to pay for it all?

          Same as always. Stealth taxes, inventive book keeping and running up astronomical debt. Then demonising anyone who raises an objection and setting UAF onto them.

          • allymax bruce

            ‘How they [labour], are going to pay for it all?

            Labour plan to sell our souls to the EU.

            • monty61

              No that’s Wee Eck’s plan.

      • perdix

        Whatever ukip says, they can’t deliver.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          …oh, well, that’s settled, then.

        • BobH2003

          perdix. Just a bit of wisdom for you.
          UKIP CAN, AND ALREADY HAVE DELIVERED!!!
          Even before the election, every other party is running around like headless chickens, trying to fight the fire that is raging. They are making all sorts of erratic statements and promises.
          Why?
          UKIP!
          That’s why!

    • Shazza

      If the Tories stop slagging off UKIP it would not work with Labour supporters as they would feel that both UKIP and the Tories were on the same side.
      They would the revert to Labour.

      I believe that the Conservative support for UKIP has peaked and the far richer pickings for UKIP lie in Labour heartlands including Wales.

      • Denis_Cooper

        Well, I think that probably UKIP will find it increasingly difficult to pull more tribal voters away from the Tories as they’ve already drawn off the ones which were easiest to detach, and now UKIP is doing the same kind of job on Labour. But a good point about the importance of having all the pro-EU parties continuing to slag off UKIP, I hadn’t really thought of that. 🙂

      • the viceroy’s gin

        You make a good point. UKIP waxes if LibLabCon is a monolith, and act in concert, to UKIP’s benefit. It will be hard for UKIP to keep these LibLabCon goats herded together, but to the extent it’s possible, that’s what they should try to do.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      Yes, UKIP is directly taking Lab down, that’s obvious.

      • you_kid

        Of course, lad – Wythenshawe is your witness.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          …did it require witnesses to commit you to the loony bin?

          • you_kid

            You mobilised 4.5% of the electorate in your ‘core constituency’ in Manchester?
            Wowsers, lad.

            • the viceroy’s gin

              …the witnesses were likely redundant, judging from the loony looks of things.

              • you_kid

                Will you ever have anything to say? Where are your people, lad – where is your support. It does not exist outside your little bubble. Why don’t you just declare independence, bubble independence – you and your gang of modestly pensioned off and house price rise dependent followers?

                • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

                  If i paid for you to go back to school, would you?

                • you_kid

                  Just vote for higher house prices RFR (sounds French, that).
                  Vote UKIP for higher house prices and the mugging of the you_kid generation.
                  Vote UKIP for denying that generation the RIGHT of free labour movement that you enjoyed.
                  Vote UKIP if you love Europe but hate the hand that feeds you, the EU.
                  Vote UKIP if you want an easy life without ever turning up for work in committees.
                  Vote UKIP if you then want to blame Belgium, Slovenia and croatia for governing us.
                  School for me, a shrink for you?

                • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

                  These are EU elections, are you retarded?

                  Stopping immigration as you claim we want to do would make houses cheaper.

                  How have we enjoyed free labour movement? 900,000 of the 1.6 million jobs advertised in the EU last month were British. The free labour movemnet is the reason youth unemployment just doubled.

                  The EU doesn’t feed us at all, we feed it.

                  The EU govern us, not specific countries as I’ve already explained to you.

                  I’m beginning to think you’re a lost cause. This is the European election, not general election.

                • you_kid

                  My side? You are lost, now you attempt to misrepresent me.
                  Off you trot, boy. You are not worth my bother.

                • Realpolitik/ fruitcake/ racist

                  Yes YOUR SIDE. You are a fascist. Just like we are ALL racists.

                  Look through those photos, tell me what your view is.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Would any school accept the loon?

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …did they let you back out of the loony bin again?

      • Kennybhoy

        Maybe. But where? In which seats?

        • the viceroy’s gin

          Good question. I don’t find recent polling reliable even at the macro level, so their regional breakdown isn’t to be trusted either. The closest real information in hand would be recent by-elections and coming council voting.

    • Kennybhoy

      You are a clever and sometimes insightful poster Maister C. You have to know that it is about key marginals and swing voters rather than the electorate as a whole. What does it matter if UKIP lower the Labour vote in seats where their majority is safe?

      • the viceroy’s gin

        It is about the electorate as a whole. That’s what politics is. UKIP is influencing the approach of LibLabCon, and how they approach the electorate as a whole. Right now, they are approaching the electorate with soiled trousers, due to UKIP.

        • Kennybhoy

          “It is about the electorate as a whole.”

          Not under FPTP it isnae man.

          “That’s what politics is.”

          Politics and elections are no’ the same thing auld yin.

          And by the by. This post contradicts your response to me above…? And your response to Denis_Cooper below…?

          • the viceroy’s gin

            Yes, it is about the electorate as a whole, especially under FPTP.

            Politics and elections are not the same thing, but politics is what influences elections.

            Not sure about this contradiction you’re blathering about. Maybe you’ve had a bit too much again.

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