Coffee House

Polls closed: what to expect

22 May 2014

10:56 PM

22 May 2014

10:56 PM

Now the waiting begins. If you’re interested in the results of around 50 councils which expect to declare overnight, here they are:

Basildon, Basingstoke & Deane, Bexley, Birmingham, Bolton, Brentwood, Broxbourne, Bristol, Cambridge, Cannock Chase, Carlisle, Castle Point, Colchester, Coventry, Croydon, Daventry, Derby, Eastleigh, Enfield, Fareham, Gloucester, Gosport, Hammersmith & Fulham, Haringey, Harlow, Hartlepool, Hastings, Havant, Hertsmere, Ipswich, Kingston-upon-Hull, Kingston-upon-Thames, Lincoln, Liverpool, Maidstone, Merton, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Peterborough, Portsmouth, Purbeck Redbridge, Richmond-upon-Thames, Rochdale, Rochford, Rotherham, Runnymede, Rushmoor, Sandwell, South Tyneside, Southampton, Southend-on-Sea, Stevenage, Stratford-on-Avon, Sunderland, Sutton, Swindon, Tameside, Tamworth, Tandridge, Thurrock, Walsall, Wandsworth, Welwyn Hatfield, Wigan, Worcester.

Here are some particularly interesting results to look out for:

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Kingston-upon-Thames: The Conservatives hope to take the council after 12 years of Lib Dem rule.
Barnet: Labour is keen to make gains in this Tory-controlled borough.
Worcester: Labour runs a minority administration after a Tory defection and the Lib Dems jumping from right to left. If the Tories win two target seats and retain five they hold, they could take power again.
Trafford: Labour needs to win four target seats to become the largest party on the Conservative-controlled council.
Newcastle: The Lib Dems, once the top dogs on this authority, are hoping to hold on to their eight remaining seats. How well or badly they fare will be another sign of how badly hit the party has been in the North of England.

We won’t get the European election results until Sunday. But though all the excitement has been about how well Ukip will do in those elections, the main parties are also keen for a strong showing in the locals, partly because it’s easier to tell their MPs that these polls are far more closely related to the result in 2015, and because more councillors means more local activists keen to knock on doors on your behalf in a general election.

Rallings and Thrasher expect Labour to gain 490-500 seats, the Tories to lose 200 seats, and the Lib Dems to lose between 340 and 350 seats.

More details and analysis on Coffee House as the picture unfolds. In the meantime, read James Forsyth’s politics column on Nigel Farage’s celebrity status, Peter Oborne on the benefits of Ukip for the whole political system, and Sebastian Payne on young Ukippers.


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Show comments
  • Smithersjones2013

    John Curtice et al suggested if UKIP won 80 seats in the council elections it would be a good performance. According to Auntie Beeb they’ve done that with only a quarter of the council results in. How many seats can they win? 200?

    Its possible that by the end of the night UKIP will have more councillors in the seats contested than the Libdems!

    • telemachus

      So the conclusion must be
      *
      They are dangerous
      Their absence of policies must be trumpeted
      The wake up call must be heeded

      • Kitty MLB

        You may find Labour are the dangerous ones.
        We would expect to find the horsemen of the
        apocalypse flying around if Labour held any power
        again.

        • telemachus

          Look Lady
          These last 4 years we have had to endure Osborne working exclusively for his own
          There are the other half
          Ignore them and we will get civil unrest

          • Kitty MLB

            How do you know I am a Lady. I could be a large dormouse
            ( evolution can do that ) who can type a few words, and there
            is a little mouse for me to play with.. how helpful.
            Civil unrest… Hmmm !

      • starfish

        Who is dangerous?

        Am I the only one who thinks you seem to be supporting and not supporting Ukip and/or labour in different threads?

        • telemachus

          You should read carefully the totality of my capital posts early yesterday morning

          • the viceroy’s gin

            I’d rather go blind.

  • alabenn

    The next UKIP target should be the BBC licence fee, that will be something that will bring more votes.

    • Smithersjones2013

      Pointing out that if we withdraw fro the EU will mean they will scrap VAT on energy bills might well resonate moreso…….

      • alabenn

        Quite true, different strokes for different folks, he has to start cutting deeper into Labour in the country, it does not seem there is a lot of Tory votes left to garner.

    • telemachus

      The political earthquake unfolds
      We have looked into the abyss
      Now voters will react with remorse
      I have no fears that now the media have seen that name calling did not work they will concentrate on the absence of policies
      *
      Wise councils will prevail next May

      • Kitty MLB

        The little wasp is having a early morning buzzathon.
        In case this pest doesn’t realise the Labour councils
        are the worse run in the whole of this realm.
        Say hello to kipper chums.

        • telemachus

          Get your epipen MLB

          • Kitty MLB

            Or jam on the end of a long stick, dear little wasp.

    • you_kid

      Are you serious? You cannot be.
      Either you wish your propaganda to be delivered by your own state, or you GET the propaganda delivered by the US, Russians, Arabs and Chinese, not to forget by Mr Jeremy (SMS) Hunt’s boss himself.
      I mean, that choice is already yours and I am sure you enjoy every minute of it.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        …where does all your sockpuppets’ propaganda fit in, lad?

  • Ricky Strong

    If BBC Question Time is anything to go by UKIP will be lucky to walk away with 1.5% of the vote.

    • Colonel Mustard

      Appalling. The worst I think I have seen in terms of a rigged audience with Hamilton as the hate figure.

      • you_kid

        Hamilton, the arch bigot. Perhaps only topped by Kirstie ‘my aunt cannot pay a Greek-style mansion tax so we can’t have that here’ Allsopp. Oh what a wonderful evening it was.

    • telemachus

      The BBC have in fact been a maximum publicist for Ukip
      This must stop

      • Ricky Strong

        The BBC should not be a publicist for any political party. That must stop.

        • telemachus

          But should represent a reasonable view
          It must focus on substance
          This is where these vapid folk fall down

          • Ricky Strong

            Every time you use terms like vapid you would do well to remember that you smear a great deal of people with it, and besides, an in/out referendum is far from being vapid.

            Have you not learnt yet – the more you insult the public the less likely they are to vote for you.

      • starfish

        Is this in some parallel universe?

        • telemachus

          I have thought so these last few weeks

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