Coffee House

Briefing: what you need to know about that leaked Lib Dem poll

27 May 2014

2:46 PM

27 May 2014

2:46 PM

Will Nick Clegg hold onto his Sheffield Hallam seat next year? No, according to internal Lib Dem polling which has been leaked to the Guardian. ICM have now released the full tables, which outline the fight Clegg and the Lib Dems face in 2015. It’s worth noting sample sizes are small — 500 were polled in each seat compared to 1,000 in Ashcroft survey this weekend. But here are the most important details:

While Clegg held onto his seat comfortably with 53 per cent of the vote in 2010, the ICM snapshot suggests that if there was a general election tomorrow, Clegg would come third behind Labour and the Tories:

In other key seats for the Lib Dems, the picture isn’t any more cheerful. In Cambridge, held by the prominent backbencher Julian Huppert, the Lib Dems are currently in second place — thanks to a 17 point increase in Labour’s vote since 2010:

[Alt-Text]


The Lib Dems took Redcar from Labour at the last election (who held it since 1974) but the polling suggests that Ian Swales — the party’s Treasury spokesman — will lose the seat. Again it is Labour, with a 13 point rise in their Redcar vote share since 2010, who are doing most of the damage:

Vince Cable’s PPS Tessa Munt also looks set to lose her seat, albeit with the Conservatives pushing her into third place. Munt surprisingly took Wells in Somerset four years ago with an 800 majority over the Tory incumbent David Heathcoat-Amory. According to the ICM polling, she would lose her seat back to the Tories in an election tomorrow, with a 20 point lead:

In a possible hint as to whom commissioned this polling, ICM also asked whether a different Liberal Democrat leader would improve the party’s standing. Happily for the enemies of Clegg, Vince Cable would have the most positive effect in the four seats (on average, around eight points) while Danny Alexander would also do well, adding another five points on average.

As Isabel blogged earlier, Clegg’s office are trying to smoke out the anonymous pollster. We’ll see if the British Polling Council force ICM to say who it was, or whether they will remain anonymous. Either way, this ‘member of the Liberal Democrat party’ knows how the make headlines by asking the difficult, potent questions.

More Spectator for less. Stay informed leading up to the EU referendum and in the aftermath. Subscribe and receive 6 issues delivered for just £6, with full web and app access. Join us.




Show comments
  • Smithersjones2013

    Cable has outed the verminous Oakeshoot as the sponsor of the polls and criticised him severely.

  • Tony_E

    Incumbency is the Lib Dem’s friend. I would expect the major Lib Dem PLayers to hold their seats, despite this polling.

    Of course, this polling is probably the work of Oaksh*tt and Cable – Vince’s last chance to be the big boss man while they are actually a party of government….at any level.

    • colinintokyo

      “Incumbency is the Lib Dem’s friend”

      Well that didn’t work very well in the EU elections did it?

  • Mynydd

    Oh dear, it would seem Mr Miliband and Labour are on the up and up. In the local and European election Labour increased its number of councils, councillors, and MEPs whereas Conservatives and Lib Dems lost councils, councillors, and MEPs Then came the Ashcroft survey which showed Mr Cameron loosing key marginal seats to Mr Miliband. Now we have the ICM poll with Labour taking seats from Lib Dems, and Mr Cameron’s percentages falling back from their 2010 level. To cap it all Mr Cameron’s Conservative party come 3rd in a national election for the first time in their history. I don’t know what the world is coming to.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      It’s a race to the bottom, and it has nothing to do with the Millipedes. They are bystanders. They may benefit, but then again they’re just as stupid as the rest of LibLabCon so they probably won’t.

  • Denis_Cooper

    I’m not entirely sure why the arrow is blue and labelled “Conservatives” rather than yellow and labelled “Self inflicted injury”. Maybe it would be better to redraw the cartoon with a yellow boomerang labelled “Lust for office” alongside the bird?

    • the viceroy’s gin

      Good point, and maybe the bird would be best drawn with blue and yellow stripes, as that’s what got arrowed last Thursday.

      • Darnell Jackson

        Are we still allowed to say bird?

  • Kitty MLB

    But you never know, do you. The electorate are a strange beast.

  • the viceroy’s gin

    If I wanted to learn anything about politics and particularly public polling of same, you’d be the very last person I’d look to, lad.

    Carry on with the bubble pantomime.

    • dado_trunking

      infuriating, aren’t they – facts?

      • the viceroy’s gin

        …you need a gibberish interpreter for each of your sockpuppets, lad.

    • johnbarnes

      Seems a bit unfair. It’s only factual reporting on the polls which have been of interest this afternoon!

      • the viceroy’s gin

        Actually, no, the kid provides “analysis”, as well as bar charts that nobody in their right mind should ever trust.

        • johnbarnes

          I can’t see any analysis, only factual information.

          And you seem very patronising, quite clearly Sebastian isn’t a “kid” or a “lad”.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            I can see analysis, and no factual information that I’d ever trust.

            Yes, the kid is a kid, a lad, and whatever else you reference the ignorant and poorly educated of insufficient years to know better.

            • johnbarnes

              If you don’t believe what is being reported, perhaps you should stop reading these blogs so avidly. Perhaps Breitbart would be a sounder home for you.

              • the viceroy’s gin

                Not quite understanding your blather, lad. I read what I want, and point out the blathering, like yours for example.

                • johnbarnes

                  Ah, I’m a “lad” now. You are condescending and patronising to anyone who disagrees with you.

                  It heartens me that so many people do.

                  You must be a very unpleasant person.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …you seem quite fixated on me for some reason, lad. It’s sorta creepy .

                • dado_trunking

                  Never mind breitbeard, hey? You are getting breitseite!

                  Hit and sunk.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …can any other of you socialist nutters translate this nutter’s gibberish?

                • johnbarnes

                  Please explain why you call everyone “lad”.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Why?

                • johnbarnes

                  I’d like to know. I suspect it shows a level of insecurity, given that you seem to enjoy patronising others who are making perfectly valid comments/contributions.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Oh.

                  Sounds like a waste of time, feeding a whiny troll, so I’m sure you won’t mind if I ignore your ask, lad.

                • johnbarnes

                  Bye, lad.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …if only, lad.

                • johnbarnes

                  I see. You need to have the last word!

                  You’ll excuse me for reverting to my previous conclusion about your insecurity, lad.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …as I say, if only, lad.

                • johnbarnes

                  Haha!

                  It heartens me that there are so few people like you outside of internet comment boards.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …actually, it’s only on internet boards that stalkers like you become fixated on other people, in a weird fashion, and follow along behind them creepily.

                • johnbarnes

                  Again, you seem to need the final word. Can you leave this comment thread alone, I wonder?

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …can you cease whimpering along behind my posts, strangely so, as you have for some few dozen posts now, it appears?

                • johnbarnes

                  Hahahaha

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …apparently not.

                • johnbarnes

                  You can’t even call it quits after that!

                  It was me who first posed the hypothesis that you had to have the last word. You have been unable to disprove that.

                  I am right, and I win. The only way you can show I’m wrong is not replying to this comment.

                  But you won’t do that, will you, lad.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …as mentioned, it is somewhat creepy, the way that you’re fixated on me, lad.

                • johnbarnes

                  F**k off, lad.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …and so intensely creepy are your obsessions, lad.

                • johnbarnes

                  You still here? It’s you that keeps replying to my comments…

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  It’s you the internet loon who obsessively and creepily began to stalk my posts, lad.

                • johnbarnes

                  Thank you for proving my point.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …your weird obsessions don’t have a point, lad. They’re just weird obsessions.

                • johnbarnes

                  It seems you’re just as obsessed with replying as you’re accusing me of being. That is the point I am making. Which you have proved.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  It seems you’re still obsessed with weirdly stalking along behind my posts, just as you started above. Weird, very weird.

                • johnbarnes

                  Define “stalking”.

                  I never attempted to seek out your posts. Your distinctive writing style with your condescending use of the word “lad” somewhat sticks in the mind.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Stalking is what you do, lad.

                  You’re an obsessive internet freak. You should check into that. It’s weird.

                • johnbarnes

                  If the definition of stalking is “what I do”, then accusing me of being a stalker is a somewhat cyclical argument, Have you no logic skills? I would imagine strawman/ad hominem attacks will be next! Pathetic.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  It’s not an argument, lad. You’re a weird and obsessed freak. You should check into that.

                • johnbarnes

                  Anonymous person on the internet attempts to make statements about me.

                  You’ll forgive me for not caring. If you were to perhaps reveal your identity, I’d maybe begin to listen.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Ah but you do care, lad, and you do listen… obsessively and freakishly so. And now you apparently want to get close to me, typical stalker behavior.

                  It’s weird. You should check into that.

                • johnbarnes

                  Third post in a row where you have used the exact turn of phrase “You should check into that.”. Are you some kind of comedy character who has catchphrases?

                  I suspect when you step away from the keyboard, you know that you’re not a very nice person.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  The several dozenth post in a row where you’ve obsessively and freakishly stalked over me, lad.

                  You should check into that. It’s weird. Most of you internet stalkers aren’t aware how weird you are, I suspect.

                • johnbarnes

                  So replying is now stalking? You’re a broken record.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  You really should check into that obsessive behavior, lad. It’s weird.

                  You don’t have to follow people around on the internet. You can find help.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  …apparently not.

    • Mynydd

      No it’s your bubble pantomime that has been blown. Just accept it,facts are facts even if you don’t like them.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        Not following what you’re blathering about here, sorry.

  • RavenRandom

    Cable has constantly proved himself disloyal, publicity hungry and unable to fulfil his side of the bargain in working with his coalition partners. Why anybody would want to replace Clegg with that mendacious, duplicitous, traitorous, economic illiterate is anybody’s guess.

    • telemachus

      You post is premature
      Cable has given full support to Clegg and roundly criticised Oakshott

      • RavenRandom

        In what way? It’s a general not a specific statement, and the “someone” turned out to be Oakeshott, who did it, we are told, without Cable’s knowledge. What a party the Limp Dumbs are.

      • Major Plonquer

        As Raven said, “duplicitous”….

  • CharlietheChump

    Someone should poll Twickenham to see if Cable would remain.

    • you_kid

      of course he would, that is precisely why it is not pubished here.

      • El_Sid

        His majority is smaller than Clegg’s. Ed Davey would be another one to look at, as another leadership contender.

        Cambridge is a bit of a weird one, as it’s effectively become a three-way marginal having traditionally been a Tory seat that went red in big landslide years. Candidate choice makes a big difference there, but gets trumped by what happens to university funding. Top-up fees cost Labour the seat in 2005, and one can assume that it’s unwinnable for either Coalition partner in 2015. Can’t imagine UKIP doing well there though.

        • Mynydd

          If I remember correctly Cambridge was a Labour gain in last weeks local election.

    • realfish

      Yes, And I wonder if Vince’s Igor, Lord Oakshott, will retain his seat !!!

    • El_Sid

      That was Oakeshott’s starting point :
      http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_twick.pdf

      34% Tory, 32% LD, 23% Lab, 5% UKIP, 4% Green (turnout weighted)

      23% could not name Vince as their MP; 14% of 2010 LibDem voters could not do so….

Close
Can't find your Web ID? Click here