X

Create an account to continue reading.

Registered readers have access to our blogs and a limited number of magazine articles
For unlimited access to The Spectator, subscribe below

Registered readers have access to our blogs and a limited number of magazine articles

Sign in to continue

Already have an account?

What's my subscriber number?

Subscribe now from £1 a week

Online

Unlimited access to The Spectator including the full archive from 1828

Print

Weekly delivery of the magazine

App

Phone & tablet edition of the magazine

Spectator Club

Subscriber-only offers, events and discounts
 
View subscription offers

Already a subscriber?

or

Subscribe now for unlimited access

ALL FROM JUST £1 A WEEK

View subscription offers

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

Thank you for creating an account – Your subscriber number was not recognised though. To link your subscription visit the My Account page

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

X

Login

Don't have an account? Sign up
X

Subscription expired

Your subscription has expired. Please go to My Account to renew it or view subscription offers.

X

Forgot Password

Please check your email

If the email address you entered is associated with a web account on our system, you will receive an email from us with instructions for resetting your password.

If you don't receive this email, please check your junk mail folder.

X

It's time to subscribe.

You've read all your free Spectator magazine articles for this month.

Subscribe now for unlimited access – from just £1 a week

You've read all your free Spectator magazine articles for this month.

Subscribe now for unlimited access

Online

Unlimited access to The Spectator including the full archive from 1828

Print

Weekly delivery of the magazine

App

Phone & tablet edition of the magazine

Spectator Club

Subscriber-only offers, events and discounts
X

Sign up

What's my subscriber number? Already have an account?

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

Thank you for creating an account – Your subscriber number was not recognised though. To link your subscription visit the My Account page

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

X

Your subscriber number is the 8 digit number printed above your name on the address sheet sent with your magazine each week. If you receive it, you’ll also find your subscriber number at the top of our weekly highlights email.

Entering your subscriber number will enable full access to all magazine articles on the site.

If you cannot find your subscriber number then please contact us on customerhelp@subscriptions.spectator.co.uk or call 0330 333 0050. If you’ve only just subscribed, you may not yet have been issued with a subscriber number. In this case you can use the temporary web ID number, included in your email order confirmation.

You can create an account in the meantime and link your subscription at a later time. Simply visit the My Account page, enter your subscriber number in the relevant field and click 'submit changes'.

If you have any difficulties creating an account or logging in please take a look at our FAQs page.

Coffee House Specdata

Who could win the Newark by-election?

29 April 2014

7:00 PM

29 April 2014

7:00 PM

Who stands the best chance of winning the Newark by-election after Patrick Mercer’s resignation? It is a safe Conservative seat, which Mercer has held since 2001. At the last general election, Mercer was reelected to Newark with a 32 per cent majority:

The Tories announced when Mercer resigned the party whip that Robert Jenrick, a lawyer who currently works at Christie’s auction house, would be standing for Newark at the next election. Will Jenrick hold the seat? According to Electoral Calculus, there is an 87 per cent chance that the Conservatives will win Newark based on the current polls — but by-elections are more unpredictable.

[Alt-Text]



Ladbrokes have the Conservatives on 4/5 to win a Newark by-election, while Ukip are on 2/1. The latter party’s candidate, Tom Irvine, garnered 3.8 per cent of the vote in the 2010 election, 0.7 per cent more than the party’s national vote. Based on this, it doesn’t look as if Ukip have much hope, but as George Eaton pointed out, Ukip did manage to poll 17 per cent in a Newark council by-election last year.

Rumors are already spreading that either Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson will throw their hat into the ring for Newark. Farage has ruled out standing if the by-election is held on Euro election day, but has not said he won’t stand otherwise. Although Newark is safe enough for Boris to contemplate, the timing might not be right; there’s still over a year to the election. Yet, the odds are currently at 10/1 for Boris to stand in Newark while Farage is at 5/1. Westminster is already delirious at the prospect of both of them standing.

PS: This map from the Election Data blog suggests that Newark may be fairly ‘receptive’ to Ukip:

BmaDYzuCYAEMVTl

Give something clever this Christmas – a year’s subscription to The Spectator for just £75. And we’ll give you a free bottle of champagne. Click here.


Show comments
Close