Coffee House Specdata

Who could win the Newark by-election?

29 April 2014

29 April 2014

Who stands the best chance of winning the Newark by-election after Patrick Mercer’s resignation? It is a safe Conservative seat, which Mercer has held since 2001. At the last general election, Mercer was reelected to Newark with a 32 per cent majority:

The Tories announced when Mercer resigned the party whip that Robert Jenrick, a lawyer who currently works at Christie’s auction house, would be standing for Newark at the next election. Will Jenrick hold the seat? According to Electoral Calculus, there is an 87 per cent chance that the Conservatives will win Newark based on the current polls — but by-elections are more unpredictable.

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Ladbrokes have the Conservatives on 4/5 to win a Newark by-election, while Ukip are on 2/1. The latter party’s candidate, Tom Irvine, garnered 3.8 per cent of the vote in the 2010 election, 0.7 per cent more than the party’s national vote. Based on this, it doesn’t look as if Ukip have much hope, but as George Eaton pointed out, Ukip did manage to poll 17 per cent in a Newark council by-election last year.

Rumors are already spreading that either Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson will throw their hat into the ring for Newark. Farage has ruled out standing if the by-election is held on Euro election day, but has not said he won’t stand otherwise. Although Newark is safe enough for Boris to contemplate, the timing might not be right; there’s still over a year to the election. Yet, the odds are currently at 10/1 for Boris to stand in Newark while Farage is at 5/1. Westminster is already delirious at the prospect of both of them standing.

PS: This map from the Election Data blog suggests that Newark may be fairly ‘receptive’ to Ukip:

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Show comments
  • Alexsandr

    Anyone hear Ken Clarke on Toady this morning. I could hear votes dripping away from the tories as he spoke. ‘You want serious politicians to deal with serious problems’ . Then he blames the serious politicians in Germany for the Euro crisis.

  • George_Arseborne

    Though not a Tory supporter, l do not see Farage getting Newark. I am praying that wobbling Cameron who could not cast his vote on HS2 rail project be kicked out come 2015. He is not fit for purpose. Cameron should go.

    • Hexhamgeezer

      No – you should

  • DavidL

    People of Newark: the circus is coming to town.

  • serialluncher

    Personally I don’t see how Ukip have a prayer in this seat. Even Ukip do really well, Labour will win it.

    • Barry Scarfe

      I agree. The most probable result will be a small Tory win or even a very narrow Labour win should UKIP split the Tory vote enough and many Lib Dems vote Labour. It is too safe a Tory bastion going by the result in 2010 to succumb to UKIP. My seat is Brentwood and Ongar and is only marginally safer for the Tories than Newark (33% Tory majority over the Lib Dems compared to a 31% Tory majority in Newark over Labour). Newark is about the 40th safest Tory seat.

      The best sort of seat for UKIP to win in a by-election would be a Tory-held marginal over the Lib Dems and the best area for that would be the West Country.

  • poppy2009

    Might be interesting if Farage decides to stand as an MP for Newark
    considering over 50% of votes and a safe seat for the Conservatives,
    plus if Boris considered to stand, although it may well be Robert Jenrick.
    If he does and loses then that would not be that great for UKIP due
    to the fact he is the leader of UKIP.

  • Agrippina

    UKIP will fight the seat for the sake of sanity, and the need not to be tainted with troughing MPs, as seen currently in the House and shown by Mercer (tory).

    We do not need anymore eton and oxford old boys. We need someone who can represent Brits 1st and foremost, the party is not racist and just wants to put the interests of our fellow countrymen 1st.

  • MirthaTidville

    Tell you what..if a Conservative doesnt win this by election, then the game really will be up for Dave…..get the popcorn in

  • Robin Wilde

    Why no mention of Labour? Realistically they do stand a chance of winning – especially if Farage shows up and cuts the Tory vote share in half. They’ve already taken a huge chunk of votes from the Lib Dems.

    • Alexsandr

      what if ukip splits the labour vote?

      • Robin Wilde

        While that does sometimes happen (not nearly as often as UKIP supporters would have you believe) it’s unlikely to happen here.

        That tends to be the result of long Labour incumbencies in monolithically safe seats where voting Labour is just the done thing. Newark doesn’t have that tradition.

  • Makroon

    God, but these comments are boring.

    • telemachus

      Nothing is more important than nailing Farage

      • Smithersjones2013

        I didn’t realise you were so enamoured of him……

        • telemachus

          The only question is what we nail him to

          • Tom Allalone

            It’s wonderful to smell the panic

            • Colonel Mustard

              Fantastic isn’t it. You can calculate the fear by the sheer number of desperate telemachus bleats in a thread. This one has him top to bottom. They are seriously rattled.

              The swine.

            • Alexsandr

              they don’t like it up em Mr Mainwartng.

      • Colonel Mustard

        Five minutes ago you were all for him splitting the Tory vote. But now that he’s eating into your support the script has changed.

        You better hurry up and import a few more hundred thousand foreigners to vote for you. Or maybe demand the voting age is reduced to 9 so you can capture all those NUT brainwashed kids.

      • Hexhamgeezer

        try nailing your mate CMD

    • Inverted Meniscus

      Agreed. Telemachus reduces another debate to ruins with his barking comments from planet Zog. No doubt his fellow Labour a Troll Mynydd will add his rubbish in due course.

  • Smithersjones2013

    Much as the MSM loves to fantasise about Nigel Farage fighting every by election and then labelling UKIP as a one man band I suspect it would be more likely that a senior member of Farage’s team who has closer ties to the area would be the choice.

    If I was going to take a guess I’d have thought someone like Roger Helmer (UKIP’s energy spokesman) might be a good choice. How ironic would that be if a former Conservative MEP who like Mercer was so shoddily treated by Cameron and CCHQ should take the seat from the Tories?

    Now that certainly would be a case of what comes around goes around……..

    • telemachus

      Ukip MEP Roger Helmer: People should be able to dislike homosexuality like they do different types of tea

      • Smithersjones2013

        So are you then saying that people should be forced to like homosexuality?

        • telemachus

          Goes to character son
          What do you imagine the media would do with this if he were up against a straight Tory

          • Smithersjones2013

            So avoiding the question by pretending to be my father (as if you’d even be good enough to adorn the underside of his shoe) are you, you insecure condescending toerag? Just answer the question!

            • telemachus

              A man of such dubious character and views would be torn apart by even Tory Nick Robinson, let alone Dacre

              • Smithersjones2013

                Thats the Dacre who admired Gordon Brown and thought him a great man is it and the Nick Robinson who was known as ‘Toe nails’ during the Brown period because he was caricatured as being so embedded up (mainstream) politicians orifices?.

                I realise the left are experts in dubious character (given so many of their representatives end up in jail) but they also suffer from deranged obsessions and these bigotry obsessed ravings really are getting frantic to the point of delerium (as are the MSM’s fervoured interpretations of everything that UKIp representatives say). Have you thought about counselling?

                Anyway, answer the question! Are you saying the people should be forced to like homosexuality and if so does that mean they should be forced to practise it?

                PS Perhaps Miliband the misfit should put it in his manifesto that all people will be forced to like homosexuality

                • Ricky Strong

                  Speaks volumes that you never got that answer.

  • you_kid

    Judging purely the graphics on maps it’s a no go zone for the great new leader.

    • telemachus

      On the contrary
      A sleazy Tory versus a newly triumphant MEP
      No contest

      • Alexsandr

        and the paedophile apologist, no economic ability, anti democratic (no referendum),pro immigration labour will do so well. (Sarcasm mode off)

        • telemachus

          Careful
          There are as many Tory and Downing Street suspects

  • swatnan

    Yes, it would be good to see Farage take the seat. That should shut him up for good.

    • telemachus

      It would be the single best thing that could happen before May next

  • Hexhamgeezer

    This Election Data blog map fails to indicate the disposition of closet racist, loony, fruitcakes and bigots, so it will be of no use to Liblabcon strategists.

    • Alexsandr

      i take exception to the fruitcake epithet. I like fruit cake, especially the dundee cakes from Fornum and Mason.

      • telemachus

        “dundee cakes from Fornum and Mason.”
        Sadly ordinary folk know little of these

        • Alexsandr

          what rubbish you talk

          £14.50 for a special treat. I am sure many could afford one of those

          http://www.fortnumandmason.com/p-5401-traditional-dundee-cake-from-fortnum-mason-luxury-retailers-of-cakes-fine-food-wine-hampers-an.aspx

          • telemachus
            • Alexsandr

              god you must be a soul-less accountant. know the cost of everything but the value of nothing.

              • telemachus

                I value my Nation
                And its morals
                Any more UKIP electoral success and we will have to learn the lesson of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt

                • Alexsandr

                  dissenters vill be shot.

                • telemachus

                  It may come to that if Farage does not step back from last Wedneday’s stupidity

                • Alexsandr

                  is it labour party policy to shoot people now? Is that a manifesto commitment?

                • telemachus

                  I am talking about the foment that Farage tried to stoke up in Sheffield and other Northern cities
                  It attests to the restraint of the minorities that it did not come to that

                • Alexsandr

                  umm. i think that minorities in the north are ready to fight each other. Pakistani v roma is one problem.

                • telemachus

                  Perhaps your point emphasises the irresponsibility of Farage

                • Alexsandr

                  What has that got to do with farage? sectarian violence is 100% the fault of labour and their uncontrolled immigration.

                • telemachus

                  The situation is as it is
                  The Farage action is pure Mosley East End

                • Tom Allalone

                  Err…I think it was David Blunkett who was saying nasty things about the Roma – I vaguely seem to remember he was something or other in a Labour Government

                • b.edwards

                  You value your nation,yet your prepared to hand it’s sovereignty over to an organisation who’s current president is an ex-maoist? You lie.

                • telemachus

                  Lokk we should not hand over
                  We should let Cameron do a deal with Merkel to repatriate powers without losing crucial influence

                • Hexhamgeezer

                  what nation would that be?

        • Hexhamgeezer

          Liar…you are well acquainted with Ed’s consumption as it travels through his colon

      • Hexhamgeezer

        Lawks a mercy! If only you could sample the wife’s southern jessie version……..food of the Gods!

    • b.edwards

      You’re not a ‘fruitcake’ man I presume…PIE more to your liking hey?

      • Hexhamgeezer

        Sir, you misunderstand me.

        I should have written (sarc) after yon post..

    • telemachus

      Farage would walk it on the back of his May 22 triumph
      Then he will be dissected

  • @PhilKean1

    .
    I think the mood is right for UKIP to take the seat.

    The reality is that the Liberal-left’s complete domination of British politics has to be broken if we are to prevent them condemning us to living under EU dictatorship.

    So for all our sakes, UKIP need to fight for this seat, and win it. One seat won at the Newark by-election could develop into ten seats at the 2015 General Election.
    .

    • telemachus

      I am all for this
      Racists can get away with billboards but will not pass muster in the House

      • Alexsandr

        what racists are these? you need to be careful, defaming people like that.

        • telemachus

          ‘Labour MP Mike Gapes said they were “racist” and appealed to “all decent British Commonwealth and EU citizens” to register to vote in May’s polls’.

          • Alexsandr

            oh if a lefty idiot says so it must be true then

            NOT

          • @PhilKean1

            And I was as disgusted by that statement as I am disgusted by him.

            Shameful to incite foreign voters into trying to deny the democratic wishes of the British people.

            But herein lies the danger of unlimited EU immigration. Cameron’s backbenchers are absolutely clueless about the creeping political, economic and social integration that is making it ever harder to leave the corrupt EU.

          • b.edwards
            • telemachus

              Margaret a humble Councillor had a silly flirtation with the right 34 years ago
              Farage is flirting with the BNP now

              • b.edwards

                Farage isn’t flirting with the paedophile sympathising labour party,are you?

                • telemachus

                  Farage has misogyny, racism and expenses to keep him worried

                • Aethelflaed

                  Misogyny? I rather think he likes women !!
                  Racism? What with a German wife !!
                  Expenses? Oh, you mean those allowances ALL MEP’s get !!

                  Farage is on a roll, the more people like you squitter your smears, the bigger that roll gets.

              • the viceroy’s gin

                …so he’s gone leftist nutter like you and the BNP?

          • Aethelflaed

            I’m sure all decent Englishmen will register an appropriate vote.

            Mike who????

      • @PhilKean1

        Sorry, which racists?

        http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2471114/Theresa-May-axe-vans-telling-illegal-immigrants-home.html

        Oh, do you mean the advertising vans sent into ethnic areas of London by the Conservative-Liberal Coalition telling “illegal” immigrants to go home?
        .

        • Alexsandr

          or flabbots racists rants on twatter?

        • telemachus

          You know well Phil
          The chaps that took scare taking our jobs billboards to Asian Cities to foment resentment and more

          • @PhilKean1

            I know nothing of the kind. I am a person of independent thought. I am not an indoctrinated, hysterical lefty who becomes paranoid when the political consensus which has dominated the past 25 years comes under threat.
            .

            • telemachus

              I do not mind genuine debate, even Osborne’s bilge
              *
              I cannot stand by when I see the nations morals are being corrupted by racialism and misogyny

              • @PhilKean1

                Have you been on-the-sauce?

                I like to debate, too. So why don’t you produce something worthy of a respectful and considered response !
                .

                • telemachus

                  Look Phil
                  Do you seriously expect a party with no intellectual heart, no one with an ounce of knowledge of economics, health or education to be able to be involved in running our affairs
                  People used to say they only had one policy but now we know they have two
                  Out of Europe
                  &
                  Send them Home
                  As I said we have the morals of the nation as well as its economic future to uphold

                • Alexsandr

                  you seriously expect a party with no intellectual heart, no one with an
                  ounce of knowledge of economics, health or education to be able to be
                  involved in running our affairs
                  sounds like Labour

                • telemachus

                  You know the honourable record of our great movement
                  Just sit and admire the front bench at PMQ’s

                • MargoLB

                  I will be amazed if Nigel Farage risked his political
                  skin by standing anywhere that might result in him having to become a proper MP- imagine surviving on the tiny salary and having to make sense at least some of the time. He will never stand- cowardy custard.

                • telemachus

                  You are correct
                  If he has any sense
                  Do you really think he has

                • MargoLB

                  He has enough sense of his own survival not to risk exposure as a total blockhead I think.

                • telemachus

                  I guess that is the best description I have heard
                  *
                  Total Blockhead

                • oldestel

                  You’re drunk aren’t you?

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  “Just sit and admire the front bench at PMQ’s”

                  .

                  LOL! Seriously. I mean, I laughed out loud at that sentence.

                • Inverted Meniscus

                  Me too. Real are thrashing Bayern and I needed some diversion and this madness fitted the bill perfectly.

                • Colonel Mustard

                  That’s a good one.

                  Tell us another one, do.

                  You muppet.

                • @PhilKean1

                  It has been Labour, Tories and Liberals who given us £1.3 trn of visible debt – and trillions more in PFI, pension deficit and other off-balance sheet debt.

                  It has been consensus politicians who, by awarding excessive employee rights, drove most of our industry and commerce out of the country and into Asia.

                  It has been Labour, and now, Cameron Party politicians, who used the revenues from Britain’s ever-dwindling number of NET taxpayers – (40% and falling) – to create a Labour-voting constituency of state employees and long-term benefit claimants.

                  It has been consensus politicians who’ve stripped us of our sacred democracy, dismantled our vital military deterrent, allowed unlimited immigration and removed all forms of discipline from under 18s.

                  There’s much more. And UKIP had no part in it.
                  .

                • telemachus

                  So what are UKIP policies
                  I have yet to meet a supporter who has the vaguest idea other than ‘out’ and ‘home’

                • @PhilKean1

                  I am a former Conservative who is now a UKIP supporter. We are more than just about leaving the EU and controlling immigration.

                  My economics guy, who is also supporting UKIP, has consistently been way ahead of anything Balls and Osborne have produced.
                  .

                • telemachus

                  Funny none of you share it

                • Alexsandr

                  has the labour manifesto for 2015 been published yet?

                • telemachus

                  When it come it will point to a fair future
                  Perhaps you heard Ed Balls on the Cost of Living today

                • Alexsandr

                  my telly has a special balls button. its red and turns the TV off.

                • telemachus

                  His Channl 4 interview was so brilliant my team are playing it back as we speak

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  Yes, and I quote:

                  “Shut up, do what you’re told and give us what we want, which is everything.”

                  Come to think of it, that’s the Camerloons’ and LibDumbs’ manifesto, too.

                • @PhilKean1

                  Then you are being unfair. I am on record, on this and other blogs, of always speaking my mind, correctly warning of dangers before they materialise, and proposing ideas which eventually find their way into the light.
                  .

                • telemachus

                  Such as?
                  UKIP seem to me to be clear that the end of European Membership is an end in itself
                  But what beyond

                • @PhilKean1

                  It wouldn’t be the end, it would be the beginning.

                  The beginning of restoring the British peoples’ democratic birthright. The beginning of paying down our debt and balancing the books.
                  The beginning of becoming a truly international country. Free to trade with and make new friends all over the world – and especially in emerging economies.

                  Free to let people come to Britain in a controlled way that
                  doesn’t cause hardship for those already here.
                  Where those who come using visas will have to pay their way, including having health insurance, so we are able to better help those people who seek asylum in order to escape persecution.

                  Free to create the wealth that will enable us to help the genuinely needy and deserving out of hardship.
                  Free to rebuild our armed forces so we can deter potential aggressors.
                  .

                • telemachus

                  Fine words
                  But who have UKIP got to even start to think about any of this
                  *
                  He would be forced to call in Labour to rescue from economic collapse–and immediately rejoin

                • @PhilKean1

                  Are you playing games?

                  Labour brought us to economic collapse in the 70s and in 2008.
                  They are straight-from-uni, professional politicians who’ve never had a real job and don’t know how ordinary people live.

                  They were like kids in a sweetshop when they were gifted the keys to a Britain which had grown prosperous after 18 relatively competent years of Tory economic management.

                  You must understand that, unlike you, I am not driven by outdated notions and class hatred. I am a logical, rational person who owes blind allegiance to no political entity. The only proviso being that I would never be so treacherous and irresponsible as to vote Labour or Liberal.

                  This is why it is impossible for you and I to have a serious debate.
                  .

                • MirthaTidville

                  a good start then..

                • Inverted Meniscus

                  Well that is two more policies than Labour!

                • Ricky Strong

                  I must confess I am a fan of their push for the devolution of power and the abolishment of the plethora of quangos. I also quite like their position on foreign intervention – which I know is your party’s favourite pastime.

                  Though I do confess they are still developing as a party and hence why I haven’t yet committed I can assure you with all my heart I would never vote for LibLabCon.

                • Patricia

                  “Do you seriously expect a party with no intellectual heart, no one with an ounce of knowledge of economics, health or education to be able to be involved in running our affairs”

                  Labour had a go for 13 years.

                • telemachus

                  And gave you the longest period of prosperity for a century before Lehman

                • Patricia

                  “And gave you the longest period of prosperity for a century before Lehman”

                  No, TM, it was a mop and bucket job when they went out of office and you know it.

                • telemachus

                  Gordon saved Western banks and engineered a recovery which was interrupted by Osborne when he choked off capital investment

                • sis

                  hahahahahahaha

                • oldestel

                  “Gordon saved Western banks and engineered a recovery”

                  Oh! Oh! My Ben! My Hero!

                • Colonel Mustard

                  “Do you seriously expect a party with no intellectual heart, no one with an ounce of knowledge of economics, health or education to be able to be involved in running our affairs”

                  You apparently do as that succinctly describes the Labour party.

                • matt

                  clearly the main 3 legacy parties have a firm grasp of economics (we’re nearly bankrupt, highest debt ever, spending higher than ever, still throwing 70bn at HS2, EU, foreign aid etc), education (schools being privatised, funding cuts, gove throwing millions at ‘free schools,’ trampling the curicullum and GCSEs) and the NHS (longer waiting lists, trusts failing patients – causing deaths!, NHS bosses creaming massive bonuses like mad). Yeah you’re right. thank god they know what they’re doing. tell you what, i wouldn’t care if UKIP said we don’t know much about that stuff to be honest. i’d still vote for them, because, and look again at the state this country’s in please….. how can anyone do worse??????? Now ssssshhhhhh!!!!

              • Inverted Meniscus

                Now that really is funny. The troll who clearly pays no attention to facts or honesty is all for rational debate. Hilarious.

                • telemachus

                  you should read my views and then read any good copy of the Guardian

                • Inverted Meniscus

                  No I simply see another legitimate debate ruined by your dissembling rubbish and cant.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  “…read any good copy of the Guardian…”

                  .

                  …not exactly a fruitful supply of those, is there?

                • oldestel

                  “you should read my views and then read any good copy of the Guardian”

                  Put the sauce away honey, you’re getting embarrassing.
                  You do realise, don’t you, that Ed will stop your allowance if he catches you drinking on duty?

              • Colonel Mustard

                “I do not mind genuine debate”

                Ha ha! You never offer it though.

              • Hexhamgeezer

                which nation would that be?

          • Tom Allalone

            Asian cities? Bangkok? Beijing? Lahore? Pyongyang? Irkutsk? Or do you mean British cities? Your comment says everything we need to know about the left’s contempt for this country and its people.

          • Tigertim

            To which Asian cities do you refer? Manila? Kuala Lumpar? I don’t recall the billboards being posted outside of Britain

          • Hexhamgeezer

            Cack

      • b.edwards

        Diane Abbot does.

      • Colonel Mustard

        New script? A change from “splitting the Tory vote”. I suppose you have been getting your new briefing from Tom Watson hence your delightful absence from this blog.

      • Aethelflaed

        Diane Abbott is still and MP isn’t she?

    • Hexhamgeezer

      Sorry Phil. could I just create a bit of breathing space between you and the Spec’s in house troll?

      • Hexhamgeezer

        Ye

        • Hexhamgeezer

          knaa

          • Hexhamgeezer

            wot

            • Hexhamgeezer

              Aa’

              • Hexhamgeezer

                mean

                • Hexhamgeezer

                  like…

                • Hexhamgeezer

                  ..sorry..

                • Hexhamgeezer

                  need……

                • Hexhamgeezer

                  to squeeze.

                • Hexhamgeezer

                  a bit more.

  • Alexsandr

    I’d say that UKIP are in with a chance. there is 20% limp dem vote to go for.

    but the turnout in 2010 was 71% so not a lot of stay at homes to have a go at.

    If UKIP get a local man that may give them the edge over a parachuted in candidate from London.

    • telemachus

      Boris has said he will distance himself from the scandal
      Farage has no such scruples
      He will win
      Then the real politicians will tear him apart in the bearpit of the Commons
      We live in exciting times

      • Alexsandr

        do you really think the useless PPE degree metrpolitan elite could hold a handle to a real life politician like Farage.

        • telemachus

          Can you imagine the first time he gets up at PMQ’s

          • MargoLB

            Trying to visualise that……nope, can’t be done.

            • telemachus

              Or his Maiden Speech

        • Percy

          Sadly yes.

          • Richard Williams

            Clegg couldn’t.

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