X

Create an account to continue reading.

Registered readers have access to our blogs and a limited number of magazine articles
For unlimited access to The Spectator, subscribe below

Registered readers have access to our blogs and a limited number of magazine articles

Sign in to continue

Already have an account?

What's my subscriber number?

Subscribe now from £1 a week

Online

Unlimited access to The Spectator including the full archive from 1828

Print

Weekly delivery of the magazine

App

Phone & tablet edition of the magazine

Spectator Club

Subscriber-only offers, events and discounts
 
View subscription offers

Already a subscriber?

or

Subscribe now for unlimited access

ALL FROM JUST £1 A WEEK

View subscription offers

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

Thank you for creating an account – Your subscriber number was not recognised though. To link your subscription visit the My Account page

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

X

Login

Don't have an account? Sign up
X

Subscription expired

Your subscription has expired. Please go to My Account to renew it or view subscription offers.

X

Forgot Password

Please check your email

If the email address you entered is associated with a web account on our system, you will receive an email from us with instructions for resetting your password.

If you don't receive this email, please check your junk mail folder.

X

It's time to subscribe.

You've read all your free Spectator magazine articles for this month.

Subscribe now for unlimited access – from just £1 a week

You've read all your free Spectator magazine articles for this month.

Subscribe now for unlimited access

Online

Unlimited access to The Spectator including the full archive from 1828

Print

Weekly delivery of the magazine

App

Phone & tablet edition of the magazine

Spectator Club

Subscriber-only offers, events and discounts
X

Sign up

What's my subscriber number? Already have an account?

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

Thank you for creating an account – Your subscriber number was not recognised though. To link your subscription visit the My Account page

Thank you for creating your account – To update your details click here to manage your account

X

Your subscriber number is the 8 digit number printed above your name on the address sheet sent with your magazine each week. If you receive it, you’ll also find your subscriber number at the top of our weekly highlights email.

Entering your subscriber number will enable full access to all magazine articles on the site.

If you cannot find your subscriber number then please contact us on customerhelp@subscriptions.spectator.co.uk or call 0330 333 0050. If you’ve only just subscribed, you may not yet have been issued with a subscriber number. In this case you can use the temporary web ID number, included in your email order confirmation.

You can create an account in the meantime and link your subscription at a later time. Simply visit the My Account page, enter your subscriber number in the relevant field and click 'submit changes'.

If you have any difficulties creating an account or logging in please take a look at our FAQs page.

Coffee House Specdata

Budget 2014: the six scary graphs

19 March 2014

2:46 PM

19 March 2014

2:46 PM

Listen — Fraser Nelson on what the budget means:


Yes, it’s a recovery. The good parts of the Budget will be all over the media right now – the Treasury is very good at broadcasting its achievements. We’ll cover them too, in a bit. But for now, in the interests of balance, here are some graphs that you won’t find in the Budget, using data taken from its small print.

1. The Deficit – an improvement since last year’s forecasts (thanks to higher growth). But still far adrift from what Osborne promised initially (in yellow, below).

Screen Shot 2014-03-19 at 13.05.03

2. Osborne fails his own debt test. The Chancellor congratulated himself for sticking to the course. “We set out our plan. And together with the British people, we held our nerve.” Not on debt, he hasn’t. In his career as Chancellor, Osborne has set only one target in stone: that the debt/GDP ratio would fall between 2015/15 and 2015/16. He gave up on this a while back. The OBR is still required to judge him each year on whether he’s likely to hit this target. Part of the reason for setting up the OBR was that it would act as bad cop, lambasting the Chancellor if he gave up on his promises. Instead, its own small print says only “The government is still on course to miss its target”. The OBR says the debt ratio will rise (by 1.5 per cent) over that period.

[Alt-Text]


Osborne’s original plan is in yellow. The published Labour plans he once disparaged are in blue. His current plan now is in red.

Screen Shot 2014-03-19 at 12.58.04

2. National Debt. Continued. You can see the effects on the whole debt pile here. Osborne’s still borrowing more in five years than Labour did in 13 – in nominal and real terms.

Screen Shot 2014-03-19 at 14.23.12

3. Yes, there are upgrades. But downgrades, too. The below compares the growth forecasts – the OBR has upgraded this year, but downgraded in later years. It’s a wash.

Screen Shot 2014-03-19 at 12.51.25

4. And it’s still the worst recovery in history The 2.7 per cent growth for this year comes after pretty bad growth. Put into historical perspective, Britain is still midway through the worst recovery in our history.

Screen Shot 2014-03-19 at 13.23.365. Only Italy has had a worse recovery You’ll have heard George Osborne listing all the counties we outpaced in the last quarter of last year. But look at the last few years, and how do we compare? Don’t ask…

Screen Shot 2014-03-19 at 21.57.26

6. Earnings – 15 years of hurt Yes, you’ll hear on the TV that earnings are expected to rise a bit more than inflation. But it depends which inflation: RPI or CPI? The below graph shows that even in CPI, it’ll take 15 years for the average wage to recover to where it was. You may get a penny off a pint, but the rest of your shopping will be as expensive as ever.

Screen Shot 2014-03-19 at 14.39.38

And finally, jobs – a non-scary graph. It is the one undiluted good news story of the Budget.Screen Shot 2014-03-19 at 14.41.39-2

Give something clever this Christmas – a year’s subscription to The Spectator for just £75. And we’ll give you a free bottle of champagne. Click here.


Show comments
Close