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All you need to know about the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election

21 January 2014

4:05 PM

21 January 2014

4:05 PM

It’s by-election time once more. In just over three weeks, the voters of Wythenshawe and Sale East in Greater Manchester will head to the polls on the 13 February to decide who will replace Paul Goggins, the Labour MP who died suddenly earlier this month.

By-elections are often thought to be a useful barometer of how the country is feeling, but in reality they are mostly fought on hyperlocal issues. This one will no doubt be watched closely given the rapidly approaching Euro elections in May. The Tories and Lib Dems are unlikely to do well in either battles, while Ukip and Labour will be going head-to-head in both instances.

Who’s going to win in W&SE?
Most likely Labour. They’ve held the seat comfortably since it was created in 1997 and none of the other parties have come close to challenging them. In 2010, Goggins won Wythenshawe and Sale East with a 7,000+ majority:

Wythenshawe and Sale 2010 election results:

Labour Paul Goggins 17,987
Conservative Janet Clowes 10,412
Liberal Democrat Martin Eakins 9,107
Ukip Christopher Cassidy 1,405

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Why are we even discussing Ukip?
In the Eastleigh, South Shields and Middlesbrough by-elections, Ukip rocketed into second place — as well as coming third in Croydon North. By-elections are perfect opportunities for voters to express their frustration with the main political parties, hence why Ukip (who always take a lot protest votes) have been doing well. It’s likely Ukip will come second or third again in W&SE, based on their national opinion polling trends.

Is that why the by-election is being held so swiftly?
A quicker campaign will benefit Labour, providing Ukip limited opportunities to find a decent candidate and build a solid campaigning team. As LabourList’s Mark Ferguson reports, they are wasting no time in finding a candidate. Applications are already closed and the first selection meeting is due to take place tomorrow, with the final decision announced next weekend. Ukip is rumoured to be ignoring the local party and parachuting in a strong candidate.

Who might stand?
The Manchester Evening News has the names of several local Labour activists who are keen to be nominated for the seat. Mike Kane, a former advisor to James Purnell is ‘widely tipped’ while councillors Suzannah Reeves, Rosa Battle, Andrew Western and Mike Amesbury are all in the frame.

Ukip’s Liverpudlian deputy leader Paul Nuttall and staple of Question Time, is rumoured to be standing in the seat — a bold move for one of Ukip’s few high profile figures besides Farage. So far, there are no names circulating from the Lib Dems or Conservatives.

So Ukip has no chance of winning?
Ladbrokes currently has 6/1 odds of Ukip taking the seat, compared to 1/12 for Labour. Even with a lower turn out that comes with by-elections, it looks too big of a mountain to climb. They can still arguably ‘win’ the by-election by increasing their vote share significantly and taking a significant chunk out of the Conservative and Labour. It will also enable Farage to continue the narrative that Ukip are on the up.

In a recent interview, Nigel Farage stated he has ‘several dozen Labour seats in the North and the Midlands in his sights’ for the next general election. A solid result in W&SE would prove he’s on the right strategy.

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Show comments
  • james

    UKIP UKIP UKIP this party is only a puppet for the establishment. its real purpose is to take votes from the BNP. In 2010 the BNP got more votes than UKIP !

  • Ciaron Goggins

    Independent standing. Ciaron Goggins “East Sale Liberation Front” putting nomination forward.

    • Alan Borgars

      Just remember to get your nomination forms in and fully signed by 30 January then,because that is when the deadline for nominations for this by-election presumably is :) (Unless your post was a joke)

      • Ciaron Goggins

        I cannot afford the deposit.

        • jacob-crackersvitch

          Or a fish supper.

          • Hammurabi9606

            Perhaps. Unlike Derek Haslam of 9 Lynn Rd PE38 who received £2K a month from The Metropolitan Police for perjury, planting false evidence and blackmail.

        • Ciaran_J_Goggins

          Have you tried getting a job?

        • Ciaran_J_Goggins

          I see you are using both your fake identities to recommend your own comments. How sad is that?

    • Ciaran_J_Goggins

      Can you stand for election if you have served a prison sentence of more than twelve months in the UK?

      • Ciaran Goggins

        As I have not been jailed I do not know. I do know however that millions read the Spectator and in the run up to the by election it is a news source. As such I want to know why the above comment is a fake ID? That of EDL organiser Derek G Haslam of 9 Lynn Rd, PE38. Or ought we to call 01366-377658 or 07867-531288 to find out why the Dad of P.C James A Haslam of Kings Lynn was not arrested for death by drink driving or 7 counts of perjury? Derek Haslam is ex Metropolitan Police.

        • Ciaran_J_Goggins

          Are you a mindless troll or just suffering fromhealth issues?

          • Ciaran Goggins

            Derek G Haslam, 9, Lynn Rd was retired on mental health grounds in Oct 1989. Had a nice chat with Mr Leppard at the “Times” earlier.

  • Basilthedog

    No one has yet mentioned the probable high percentage of postal voting,, the possible rigging of which has caused increasing concern (though not in Labour circles) in recent years. Effective monitoring could be crucial.

  • Roy

    It would be nice to think or dream the people of Wythenshawe would have
    the intellect or the ability to even peep out of the box of embedded
    Labour. It is hard to envisage the non educated younger generation to
    turn their attention from their brain addled welfare culture they are
    born into, to a more enlightened view of a possible new modern society. Their reading skills, if they have any, would be unlikely to
    extend to acquiring a new outlook from the days of their grandfather.
    Or for that matter from their comics, the latest in video games, the noise arena, the drug or booze scene, or on the texting round-about. The younger generation are unfortunately incapable of dissecting from the myriads of information circulating what the rudiments of administration for local or national government are. Let alone the deeper more extreme systems that are free to circulate their propaganda.

  • James Strong

    I hope UKIP field a strong, high-profile candidate.
    One of its shortcomings is that some people see it only as ‘The Nige Show’.
    This is correctable.

    • Northerner1001

      I hear it’s UKIP’s weatherman who’s standing :)

      • the viceroy’s gin

        You Millipedals are starting to get nervous about UKIP now, apparently. I guess it was just a matter of time.

  • Dogzzz

    Conservative voters in Wythenshaw should not split the anti labour vote. They should vote UKIP to give Miliband a bloody nose and let Ed Balls know what they think of him.

    • Alexsandr

      so you dont think the floating voters and those who didnt vote in 2010 will have an effect then?

    • Northerner1001

      Labour will win comfortably, they don’t need a right wing vote split to win this

  • Alexsandr

    well a lot missing from this piece. Goggins got 58% and a 15000 majority in 1997. That was hammered down to 44% & 7000 in 2010. And 5000 less people voted in 2010 than in 1997.
    a combination of 2010 stay at homes and disaffected liblabcon voters could cause an upset.
    I’d say watch this space. and stay away from the bookies.

    • Northerner1001

      Comfortable Labour hold, If you’re betting, the battle is for 2nd…read my comment just posted

  • Northerner1001

    Labour will hold the seat comfortably. UKIP fantasists keep bigging up they’re chances but they’ve no chance of winning as they’re simply not that big in the North West.
    Paul Nuttall of UKIP isn’t standing, he took one look at the adjacent Broadheath(Trafford) result last Thursday where Labour gained from the Tories with 44.6% of the vote whilst UKIP got just 7.6%. The battle is for 2nd place & by no means is it a gimme for UKIP as they’re presuming.
    If UKIP’s strategy is to run an anti-immigrant campaign it will fail badly. It’ll be about the economy & especially the cost of living.

  • MichtyMe

    Errr, “Ukip’s by-election successes” ??? They lost.

    • Utterances

      Well, that second graph doesn’t exactly look like failure.

    • Alan Borgars

      Because of FPTP, the odds are stacked heavily in favour of the three main parties (as my fellow Greens know well; it took a lot of work over many years to win Brighton Pavilion), and thus even though UKIP have thankfully never won any of these by-elections, they are successes by minor party standards. UKIP performed best of the minor UK-wide parties in 2010 with 3% of the popular vote overall but still lost 473 deposits out of 572 and could not manage any better than 3rd in any seat.

  • HookesLaw

    Is anyone taking bets on the turnout?

    • John Devon

      Not a betting man but 35%?

    • sfin

      Cracking question! I think our ‘big three’s’ fight for the mythical ‘centre ground’ would normally achieve its usual aim of voter apathy. One of UKIP’s successes over recent years has been galvanising, that huge constituency – the ex voter, and I hope to see them continuing with an increased turnout in Wythenshawe and East Sale.

  • Bert

    Constituency of football adicted tribal monkeys conditioned to vote for anything that moves with a red rosette. Labour cannot lose.

    • MalcolmRedfellow

      I trust you exclude Brooklands Ward in Sale from that gross generalisation.

      By the way, do you have trouble relating to your fellow humans, or are we all deserving of your contempt?

    • telemachus

      And not just because of your prejudice

      *

      But because they are right for the country

      *

      And because Suzannah Reeves, local councillor, Director of Oldham Sixth Form College and proud mother of 4 children will ring a chord with the voters.

      • Alexsandr

        well we have a right labourite trollfest tonight.

        • telemachus

          Son
          This is my backyard
          What we do not want is infestation by Ukip

          • Alexsandr

            thank god I am not your son.
            I can remember labour f*ckups. like wilson’s devaluation, Healy having to go to the IMF and the useless Callaghan.
            and heath was as bad in retrospect.
            Tho I have to give it to Brown as the biggest idiot…

            • telemachus

              The 60’s were grim times despite the romance and the 70’s not much better
              Since then the lot of the worker has improved immeasurably
              Gordon not only gave us unbeknown before prosperity but used it to drag the health service and education out of the Victorian era
              Sad the US banking crisis ended it
              When history is written Brown will be seen as a mighty economist who gave us a cracking start to the 21st Century
              *
              Give thanks

              • Utterances

                Fake prosperity on the back of massive overspending, leaving our grandkids with the bill to pay. Hardly something to brag about.

                • telemachus

                  All good businesses borrow to expand
                  China has no place else to put its money

                • Alexsandr

                  you borrow what you can afford to replay in a few years. Not put your investment in pfi deals lasting 25 years.
                  and you borrow in the bad times and make a surplus in the good times. Brown could’t even get keynsian economics right.

                • telemachus

                  His surplus was real and is manifest in the fact that you have a health service still

                • Alexsandr

                  a health service mortgaged by brown to Serco and the rest.

                • telemachus

                  And one that reduced deaths on cardiac waiting lists from 50% to 7%
                  And reduced hip waits from 5 years to 5 weeks

                • Alexsandr

                  you just dont understand value for money do you. You can chuck money at a problem in the hope it fixes it. or you can be intelligent and make the money we have work.
                  chucking money at health didn’t stop Stafford did it?

                • telemachus

                  Without the investment would have made Stafford 10 times worse

                • Alexsandr

                  stafford was a failure of regulation. the responsibility of government, and the secretary of state. Mr Burnham.

                • telemachus

                  If you remember Burnham instituted the first Stafford enquiry
                  And as you know the care quality commission was set up in 2009 and tutored in its early days by Burnham
                  *
                  Do not lecture me on good running of the health service

                • Utterances

                  Yeah, you keep telling yourself that.

              • Alexsandr

                did you use to write for morecambe and wise? this is genuinely funny.
                The ability of socialists to rewrite history is legendary

                here is an old joke
                Michael Foot. a living leg-end.

                • telemachus

                  Mr Foot’s absolute decency held the party together better than any alternative leader may have managed and thus bequeathed a viable party to his successors
                  *
                  The current part reflects that absolute decency

                • Alexsandr

                  tell me about the SDP…

                • telemachus

                  A bunch of rvisionists who probably led to the current disastrous coalition

                • Alexsandr

                  so foot didn’t hold the party together, he caused a rift. well done.

                • telemachus

                  We were well rid of Rodgers and crowd
                  The way is now paved to get back to socialism

              • kyalami

                Funny. I distinctly remember a UK banking crisis.

                • Alexsandr

                  created by browns tripartate banking regulation. That was a good idea, want it. everyone thought one of the other regulators was watching and no0one was.

                • telemachus

                  On the back of American Subprime securitisation

              • lojolondon

                OK, that is it – Crash Gordon is a joke, and obviously so is this!!

              • r3d3

                “drag .. education out of the Victorian era.”

                When people were literate and numerate.

                Thanks Labour.

                • telemachus

                  They were literate and numerate in the Victorian era
                  They just had antediluvian draughty plant

                • Colonel Mustard

                  You are getting a well deserved spanking here.

            • Northerner1001

              Alex you think you’re funny trying to patronise the north but you’re not & Farage keep’s chatting about a pact with the Tories without Cameron & he thinks this is a good strategy to win in the north???? they’ll be plenty of leaflets delivered too with his adulation for Mrs Thatcher too with pictures of him drinking from his ‘i love maggie’ mug…….he’s such a clown, a home counties banker on the make&on the take

              • Alexsandr

                w t f does ‘patronise the north’ mean?

              • matt

                ” a home counties banker on the make&on the take”

                How is that any more acceptable, and any less offensive, than me saying, for example, that “Labourites are northern wasteland benefits scroungers on the skive and on the thieve” ?

              • Fedup Voter

                Nigel Farage has specifically ruled out a pact with the Tories before the next election. You are just trying to scare Labour voters away from UKIP.

                • Northerner1001

                  He’s only ruled out a pact as long as David Cameron is leader otherwise he’s said,most lately a few weeks ago in the Telegraph, that he’s open to the idea if others led the tories & the more people know this the more it will hurt UKIP in the north especially

          • Colonel Mustard

            “This is my backyard”

            Really? Were you not taught not to c**p in your own backyard then? You deposit it here in copious amounts every day.

    • George Scoresby

      We are all tribal monkeys until the tribe starts to split apart.

    • Yourwyth

      My prediction ( if a monkey who lives in the constituency can gave one) is Labour win. Close ish UKIP second. Minor scraps for the rest. Lib Dems to lose their deposit.

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