Coffee House

Local elections 2013: in numbers

3 May 2013

6:53 PM

3 May 2013

6:53 PM

335: total councillors lost by the Tories
291: seats gained by Labour
124: losses sustained by the Lib Dems
139: seats gained by UKIP

147 UKIP council seats after today’s results

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10 councils lost by the Tories
2 councils gained by Labour
13 councils now in overall control, up 8

17: the largest gain by UKIP in any council, in Kent
24: the most councillors gained by Labour in one local authority, in Durham

6,505: Emma Lewell-Buck’s majority as the new Labour MP for South Shields, down from 11,109 achieved by David Miliband in 2010

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Show comments
  • Daniel Maris

    Fraser and co. seem to have fallen silent…are they just scratching their heads?

    How do conservatives who claim to admire Thatcher talk about a party (UKIP) that is clearly a conservative party with a Thatcherite vibe.

    • http://twitter.com/stevetierney Steve Tierney

      UKIP wouldn’t know Thatcherism if it smacked them in the face with a handbag. They’re reactionary populists. In due course their broad broad broad church will end up in a massive falling out.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        So speaketh the wets.

        You should always call them racists, too. It’s in the handbook.

  • Daniel Maris

    What I would like to see now is a consensus develop that we need a speedy Royal Commission to look at the whole issue of mass immigration with a view to

    (a) Reducing immigration from the current 500,000 pa to a more manageable 100,000.

    (b) Bringing in a proper guest worker system with cover for infrastructure costs.

    (c) Minimising naturalisation.

    (d) Ensuring that all people coming to this country on an extended basis are proficient in English and suscribe to social values that are in keeping with ours.

  • Dogsnob

    Nothing changes in the mind of the LibLabCon cartel.

    They still refuse to think of the voters’ concerns as having any substantive worth. They speak only of the need to ‘alter perceptions’.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

      Some party hack decreed that the people

      had lost the government’s confidence

      and could only regain it with redoubled effort.

      If that is the case, would it not be be simpler,

      If the government simply dissolved the people

      And elected another?

      Berthold Brecht

  • anyfool

    I see County Durham is still in thrall to the benefits party, have they not worked out there is no money left.
    A sure sign that Labours education policy worked up here.

    • HookesLaw

      Benefits.
      Thats interesting. Fruity loop extreme right wingers are always complaining about benefit cheats and in the same breath lambasting Cameron (again).
      But according to the good old Mail
      ‘The Government introduced tough new health tests for those who claimed
      to be too unwell to get back into employment two years ago. Since then
      some 203,000, 30 per cent, out of 700,000 receiving the old Incapacity
      Benefit were declared fit to find work.’

      Yet another excuse to deride the Conservatives goes down the spout. What excuses will they think of next?

      • petermorris

        I know of 2 ladies with the incurable and debilitating disease Multiple Sclerosis who were awarded NIL disability points, meaning they are assessed as 100% fit and healthy and able to hold down a full time job. That is nothing for the Conservatives to be proud of. Even their own Tory MP said he would not employ them when they complained to him.

  • http://twitter.com/ianwalkeruk Ian Walker

    I hope in all the after-action polling, someone asks the question as to how many UKIP voters were previous stay-at-homers. I have a sneaking suspicion that UKIP have taken a lot of their votes from the Apathy Party – and if these people watched the news yesterday and saw that their vote had made a difference to the country, they could be rather hard to dislodge…

    • Dicky14

      I whole heartedly endorse your reasoning. Before Thursday, it appeared an act of defiance to go Ukipping with little consequence other than a personal sense of pride. Now that defiance can do damage, the world, as they say, is your lobster.

    • http://twitter.com/stevetierney Steve Tierney

      You wait until 12 months of those new councillors doing nothing significant and blaming everything on Europe. See if apathy doesn’t set right back in again. Two years time there’ll be some new “truthspeaker” lambasting LibLabConKip for their party positions and failure.

      • Cllr steve radford

        Steve think you mean Lib Dem not Liberal- The Liberal Party has actively worked with Democracy Movement for a referendum NOW

    • Cllr steve radford

      Hi Ian the turnout figures were not up significantly so probably case UKIp gains came across the spectrum of regular voters – all the major parties have ratted on the referendum on EU so they got what they deserved. By the way The Liberal Party held a former Tory seat IN Harrogate and gained a district in Ryedale

  • http://www.facebook.com/steven.efstathiou Steven Efstathiou

    Here’s some more numbers:

    Estimates for the change in vote share in the local elections since those seats were last contested in 2009 are:

    Con -9 points

    Lab +7

    UKIP-BNP +15

    Lib Dem -11

    • the viceroy’s gin

      …where are you getting those numbers?

      • http://www.facebook.com/steven.efstathiou Steven Efstathiou

        John Rentoul at the Indy. Not sure if they’re entirely accurate, but until UK Polling Report does an analysis of the results, it’s the only indication I’ve found of the percentage movement since 2009.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          He got it wrong in his blogpost, because the BBC had UKIP on +18, not his incorrect figure.

          By the way, Rentoul reports that the BBC are showing the following 2015 projections right now:

          Lab 29

          Con 25

          UKIP 23

          LD 14

          http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/05/03/local-elections-labour-didnt-do-enough-to-win-in-2015/

          • http://www.facebook.com/steven.efstathiou Steven Efstathiou

            Anthony Wells has posted his thoughts…

            The BBC’s Projected National Share of the vote was CON 25%, LAB 29%, LDEM 14%, UKIP 23%. The results for both the Conservatives and Labour are strikingly low… but this is more an artefact of the high level of UKIP support. I’ve said it in almost every post I’ve made this week, but note again what the Projected National Share of the vote is and isn’t.

            It is a projection of what the BBC think the shares of local vote would be if there were elections across the whole country and if all four parties stood in every council division. In other words, it takes account and corrects for the fact that only rather Toryish parts of the county voted, and that UKIP and the Lib Dems only stood in three-quarters of the divisions. Secondly, it isn’t the votes that were actually cast – if you totted up the votes cast in every ward on Thursday you’d come up with a different, but probably less meaningful, number. Thirdly, it’s not an attempt to measure or predict national support for a general election – general elections have much higher turnout and, more importantly, people can and do vote differently in them.

            http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

            • the viceroy’s gin

              Sounds like he’s piling up a bunch of words to explain away UKIP’s massive vote total increases.

              • http://www.facebook.com/steven.efstathiou Steven Efstathiou

                Don’t thinks so, Viceroy. Out of all the political commentators out there, I’d say that Wells is definitely non-partisan.

                • the viceroy’s gin

                  He’s spinning, though. If he’d presented the data, accurately and without spin, we could take your statements as valid. Neither of your links are doing that though. They’re spinning in both cases, and significantly inaccurate re the data in at least one.

  • Daniel Maris

    Isn’t there a strong possibility of defections to UKIP from Tory ranks after next year’s elections? – when the likelihood will be polling even higher in the Euro elections and the local authority elections. It will be a great platform for UKIP to go into 2015.

  • Baron

    If you want to hear what Baron would like to say, lacks the ability, have a peep at this:

    http://bogpaper.com/2013/05/01/russell-taylor-in-praise-of-ukip/

  • David Lindsay

    What the BBC gives, the BBC can and will take away. UKIP, take note. You have not even done terribly well for a party that is on Question Time monthly, Newsnight thrice-weekly and The Daily Politics daily. So don’t expect that level of indulgence from now on.

    • http://owsblog.blogspot.com Span Ows

      No, they’ve done exactly what Auntie wants them to do.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

      Never mind Auntie still has Stuart to go with Jimmy and explanations should keep Panorama and Newsnight going for years

    • kyalami

      Given you think that they have not done terribly well, I can only assume that you forecast them to do far better. Would you be good enough to point us to that forecast?

    • MirthaTidville

      I think Auntie might become a little preoccupied when the the Eastenders Peodo ring comes to light so will have to leave UKIP alone anyway

    • HookesLaw

      Are you joking? Any party that is going to harm the tories and expose right wingers as fruit loops is meat and drink to the BBC

  • Russell

    Here’s some numbers that warm the heart:-

    Percentage change in number of Councillors!

    Conservative -23%
    Labour +117%
    Lib Dems -26%
    UKIP +1737%

    Suck it up Cameron, Clegg & Milband. (and Telemucus/Lindsay)

    • David Lindsay

      Labour seems to have lost no seats to UKIP. Not one. Anywhere.

      • Russell

        Unfortunately for you and Miliband labour, labour did lose many votes to labour and much reduced percentages of the vote, which will count come 2015. If more Conservatives, Labour and LibDem voters switch to UKIP in 2015, I don’t give Miliband or Cameron much chance of a majority.

        • David Lindsay

          Eh?

          • Russell

            Many labour voters switched to UKIP, unfortunately, many more Conservative voters also switched. The result being a labour Councillor winning the seat, albeit on a smaller percentage than the previous labour incumbent.
            Even in the ‘rock solid’ safe labour bye election seat held by labour for 35 years, labours majority was cut in half by a party (UKIP) contesting the seat for the first time.

            • David Lindsay

              A win’s a win.

              • http://owsblog.blogspot.com Span Ows

                Making the Conservatives the biggest winners this week then.

              • http://www.facebook.com/michele.keighley Michele Keighley

                Well, if that is your attitude to the voice of your lost supporters, next time it will probably be a loss. The change is because people don’t believe their concerns are being listened to – your attitude seems to show they are right to believe so.

              • Jambo25

                Mr Lindsay and friends. None of the ‘big’ 2 1/2 parties won. They all lost. Recent elections have shown a growing anti-politics revulsion with all the London based parties.

                What many people now see, In England as much as Scotland and Wales is a fairly seamless political/media class based in London with which we have little in common in terms of culture, aspirations or identity. Moreover, as David Starkey pointed out on QT, his week, that class is now semi or fully hereditary.

      • Baron

        David, if one considers that under the FPTP system it’s hard, if not impossible for people to vote for other than one of the three established parties to register a massive protest vote to the party in power, the result for ‘the fruitcakes’, measured by the popular vote, is pretty impressive.

        And it may not end here.

        • telemachus

          The fruit cakes got just 147 seats
          Not actually impressive

          • Colonel Mustard

            No, they got 291 seats. Very impressive given their record. The creation of the client state paid off.

            • telemachus

              This included one of Guido’s relatives-congratulations

              “Alexis McEvoy lost her South Waterside seat to UKIP’s Philip Fawkes – a retired headteacher and distant relation of gunpowder plotter Guy Fawkes, who won with a majority of 315 and a 37.2% share of the vote.”

              • Colonel Mustard

                He was one of UKIP’s candidates not one of the 291 Labour fruitcakes.

      • http://www.facebook.com/michele.keighley Michele Keighley

        But your South Shields ‘win’ came with a majority that was slashed by half – surely you must admit that was a result of votes going to UKIP – if you deny that, you are as bad as Cameron and Co.

        • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

          Miliband was not able to get the vote in his brother’s seat

          • http://www.facebook.com/david.j.simpson.393 David Julian Simpson

            Oh but he did

        • telemachus

          Yes but mattereth not
          The net result of UKIP in 2015 will be to send Tory marginal into Labours fold

          • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

            It will be unlikely that anyone will win in 2015 but it is irrelevant. By themn it will be QE ad infinitum or Big Bust and major Depression ad infinitum

            • telemachus

              Wrong
              There will be a major push to growth by borrowing to invest
              Then direct tax revenues will rocket up and pay down the deficit
              WE wii have a good life such as we had when Gordon was Chancellor before Lehman

              • MikeBrighton

                And you don’t think we borrow too much at the moment. A public deficit of £120ish bn per year or £330 million per day?

                It’s the largest borrowing fueled debt binge ever attempted in history. And you want to borrow more?? Are you insane??

                • telemachus

                  How else do we generate the taxes to pay it back

                • http://twitter.com/stevetierney Steve Tierney

                  ROFL. #facepalm

                • petermorris

                  Borrowing to implement austerity is a stupid way to go. Osborne is stupid.

            • petermorris

              Someone must win, by definition of a vote!

        • http://www.facebook.com/david.j.simpson.393 David Julian Simpson

          Please do your maths correctly, if the turnout is down then your majority is also down, you then have to go on the percentage of the votes that were cast and Labour just got over 50% marginally down on the 2010 result. So your analysis is up the swanny

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

        Labour did not have the seats to lose in Conservative controlled shires

      • Jambo25

        You cannot spin this as anything other than very disappointing for Labour. Pre-election estimates were that some 350 gains were what was required as a minimum for Labour if they were to be ‘on track’ for a win in 2015. 500 gains were seen as being what they should aim for. Labour got about 300 gains. Moreover, when you look at vote share you find that Labour got 29% of the vote.At this stage in the governmental/electoral cycle, that is pathetic.

        • http://www.facebook.com/david.j.simpson.393 David Julian Simpson

          You are quoting what the Tories estimated what Labour must do which was way over the top.
          Labour estimated it would gain about 280 seats and it was not far out.
          This is not spinning, just fact

          • Jambo25

            No, I’m reporting what virtually every political correspondent said prior to Thursday’s election.

      • Smithersjones2013

        Labour hardly had any seats to lose! Many counties were a Labour free zone before the election.

      • anyfool

        Do you not think that Labour increasing its councillor base by so much in Durham is peculiar, the postal vote is wide open to abuse, almost all the people I spoke to are staggered at the result as by and large they voted UKIP.

    • telemachus

      Equally we know the Mayfly UKIP will soon boast minus 1737%
      The most significant figure above is Labour +117%
      Remember these are the shire counties

  • MichtyMe

    There will be lots of fun in the future, when these untested Ukip councillors, with their unexamined backgrounds, take their seats are are scrutinised. Were not their MEP’s a rum bunch, how many was it, went to jail?

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

      Well Tories, labour and LibDems are a rum bunch. How many are in jail ? How many escaped jail ?

      • Russell

        More importantly, how many should be in jail?

  • NIGEL BARLOW

    I find it quite worrying that faced with economic stagnation,the voters have appeared to turn to blaming immigrants,foreigners and Europe for our woes whilst ignoring the real problems that let to our economy being in crisis,our living beyond our means and the destruction of businesses systematically over the last 40 years that actually produce wealth and value to pay for our excesses

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

      Do you really ? The destruction of business over 40 years started in 1972 when guess what ? !!!!!!!

    • Archimedes

      I find it quite encouraging, that at a time of economic crisis, the BNP has been destroyed and UKIP is the most “extreme” party we’ve decided to endorse.

      I think your analysis is a bad one.

      • Dicky14

        I could be wrong but did the Lib Dems die too? All the work Paddy and Charlie Kennedy did killed by young Cleggy. Oh, the humanity!

        • Daniel Maris

          They are holding up not too badly, all things considered. They might be picking up a few percentage points from left wing Tories who perhaps prefer their approach to the economy.

          • Dicky14

            Yeah, you’re probably right but young Cleggy simply has to go before the election with Mr Cable doing the honourable thing.

      • HookesLaw

        The BNP have just moved.

        • Dicky14

          What an odd thing to imply. I think you’ll find that most Tory voters think the party has left them. I know you’re a salaried Tory but you really should get better attack lines than that, it’s quite vulgar.

          • Wessex Man

            Dick14
            Hooky is an acolyte of Call me Dave, now that Dave has admitted that calling us Fruitcakes and Loonies doesn’t work, they seek to smear us as the BNP.

            They really don’t understand the the British people are sick and tired of their lies and don’t get it that every time they open their mouths more and more people move to the fastest growing party of our times.

    • dalai guevara

      This is of course exactly what the French or Greek or Dutch would do – unwittingly, we have decided to uphold European tradition.

    • ArchiePonsonby

      Of course, the business climate has improved no end since we joined the EU and never mind that we can’t deport murderers and rapists, eh? Far better to put up with all of that and stay in the EU. AND IT’S SO CHEAP! Only £55 million a day!

    • Jambo25

      It’s pretty simple Nigel. If the Tories wish to appeal to places like the North of England, Scotland, Wales etc then start to find candidates who look and sound like the local populations and start to develop policies that make sense to them.

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

        Probably not enough Etonians……..have to make do with Philip Davies, but then again he is nearer to UKIP than Cameron

    • Dogsnob

      I agree with your argument regarding the economy. It is however only one aspect of our national plight and it’s too simplistic and frankly, by now quite discredited, simply to trot out the same old platitudes about not blaming foreigners for our woes.

      I would love to see the economy put back into a healthy state, but if that means giving up my homeland to a pot-pourri of alien cultures, then I’m not interested.

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