Coffee House

What next for the anti-euro parties?

22 April 2013

22 April 2013

It’s not a surprise that since the eurozone crisis began, support for eurosceptic parties has risen across the European Union. But behind the noise from leaders such as Nigel Farage and Beppe Grillo, how much of an impact will they have, particularly on next year’s European elections?

The party that stole the headlines in the past few weeks was Alternative für Deutschland, but compared with the rest of Europe, Germany is late to the party when it comes to eurosceptic movements. AfD belatedly provides the country with its own anti-hero party. Just 3 per cent of Germans currently intend to vote for AfD according to the latest poll, but another showed that 25 per cent would consider voting for a party advocating German withdrawal from the euro. The 5 per cent threshold needed to enter the Bundestag may yet prove too high, but it is eminently plausible that they may act as the election spoiler that forces the formation of a grand SPD-CDU coalition after September’s federal election.

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If Germany is just embarking on its eurosceptic odyssey, then the recent experience of the rest of Europe suggests that support for AfD could have significantly further to rise. Support for such parties has reached unprecedented heights as recession, austerity and concerns over the integrity of national sovereignty have sapped voters’ confidence in their traditional parties of government. In most cases the uptrend began with the sovereign debt crisis in 2010, and the impact has been to double, and in some cases (Italy, Greece, Finland, the UK) triple, the combined support for those countries’ various eurosceptic parties.

For now, even where support for eurosceptic parties is at its highest, such as Austria and Italy, there is no suggestion that those parties will get their hands on power any time soon. Their biggest impact is yet to come, with the European elections in 2014 providing one opportunity to expand their power base.

Combined support for eurosceptic parties: Italy, Spain, Greece.

Combined support for eurosceptic parties: Italy, Spain, Greece.

Austria, Finland, Denmark.

Austria, Finland, Denmark.

UK, Ireland, Sweden.

UK, Ireland, Sweden.

The charts above show voting intentions in national elections, which means these parties could garner a much higher proportion of the vote at the European level, where turnout is generally lower, and citizens are more likely to cast their votes in protest over domestic ills. It is at this point that we will understand what the voters of these countries really think about closer integration of the eurozone.

Richard Mylles is a political analyst at Absolute Strategy Research.


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Show comments
  • MichtyMe

    The Irish anti euro party, would that be Sinn Fein/IRA?….Hmmm

  • telemachus

    the bogus tele_machus is back. As I have had to do before I will do now. All posts by the real telemachus will have the code A37.

    A37

    • the viceroy’s gin

      Pretty soon, we’ll need to reopen Bletchley Park, to get through this telemucus cipher scourge.

  • foxoles

    It’s all very well describing Beppe Grillo simply as a ‘comedian’, but he is actually a qualified accountant and would probably do a better job than any of the current shower.

    When Italian Socialist Party leader, Bettino Craxi (then PM) visited China, Grillo joked that a member of the Italian Socialist Party asked Craxi, ‘If the Chinese are all socialists, who do they steal from?’

    • Makroon

      Italian qualified accountant – oxymoron alert.

  • greggf

    You don’t include France.

    The problem with the EU is that it lacks a quorum – certainly in old Europe.

    It is generally tolerated like many other similar aspects of parliamentary democracies (e;g; certain welfare benefits, immigration, Islam) but support seems fragile, and the recent faux pas by that Dutch Eurogroup President, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, about “templates” might just give the euro-sceptic voter the power they need.

  • tele_machus

    Folks
    If you click on the spoof the discerning ones will see it is not the true bill

    • the viceroy’s gin

      Yes and Lord knows we’re all anxious to have the true bill.

  • telemachus

    If it is not permissible for a foster parent to be a member of supporter of anti-EU party then there should be much greater restrictions on these parties and those that support them. The EU has provided peace and prospertity for all and is the basis of a new world order of anti-nationalism.

    Those who reject this vision should not be employed by any public sector organisation as a beginning of developing sanctions. This would soon reduce the numbers of those wishing to go back to a Europe of war and poverty.

    • Nicholas chuzzlewit

      I suspect the Greeks are having a good laugh at your “prosperity for all” nonsense.

      • telemachus

        Greece is only facing problems because it has refused to commit itself to the EU over many years and has been fooling its own people. It has been playing a game with the EU. Now it may need to quickly integrate itself to allow the successful members to take control for the common good.

        • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100005531769127 Gary Smith

          Hmm tittymungus
          Been at the juice at bit early today!

          • telemachus

            i don’t drink before dinner. and never in the company of my many Muslim friends because I know what it means to embrace the cultur of another. it would make sense for areas with muslim majorities to be able to become teetotal. this is one of the strengths of muslim societies, the sobriety of the men in distinction to the drunkeness we see among young white english men.

            • telemachus

              there is surely no difference between the british empire spreading one civilization around the world and the modern muslim civilzation spearding around the west in our own time. there are many benefits for us if we accept it. islam is the reason for us having maths and astronomy and medicine. it was the great world civilization while we were living in mud huts. just because some people are bad and also muslim doesn’t mean that islam is not good.

              Boris Johnson has encoyraged everyone in London to keep Ramadam with muslims. And he is from a Muslim background himself. he appreciates the value of islamic civilisation.

            • Chris Morriss

              Now your eccentric humour has really excelled itself. You are extracting the urine aren’t you?

        • foxoles

          ‘Resistance is useless’ (The Vogons) – ‘Resistance is futile’ (The Borg)

          Join the hive mind – there is only the collective!

          (Borg is a collective proper noun for a fictional alien race that appears as recurring antagonists in various incarnations of the Star Trek franchise. The Borg are a collection of species that have been turned into cybernetic organisms functioning as drones of the Collective, or the hive. A pseudo-race, dwelling in the Star Trek universe, the Borg force other species into their collective and connect them to “the hive mind”; the act is called assimilation and entails violence, abductions, and injections of cybernetic implants. The Borg’s ultimate goal is “achieving perfection”).

          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borg_(Star_Trek)

          • telemachus

            is it really so wrong for a successful ideology and sociology to want to spread itself and the benefits it can impart to other societies?

            • greggf

              You mean like Christianity, or Buddhism….?
              Well in that case – nothing wrong!

            • emiller7

              Maybe I wouldn’t want either so will you force me?

          • dalai guevara

            Yes, and redshirts are the ones that frequently die first.
            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redshirt_%28character%29

            ST was never directed by Jean Luc Goddard, was it?

        • Nicholas chuzzlewit

          Kindly define precisely what you mean by “commit itself to the EU” beyond signing every treaty required of it and signing up to the Euro. A precise explanation please not one of your fatuous slogans.

    • Richard Mylles

      Perhaps build a gulag for them to live in?

      • The Sage

        Aside from not being able to foster children, these heretics should maybe wear a yellow star on an armband.
        Don’t forget these people are fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists so ripe for rounding up before being sent by cattle truck somewhere truly terrifying in the east – Harwichtz, for example.

        • anneallan

          I was nodding in agreement until you mentioned Harwichtz; nobody deserves that fate. Frinton without the smugness.

      • Makroon

        I fear you have just been mightily whooooshed !

    • tele_machus

      crazy

    • Colin

      “The EU has provided peace and prospertity for all ”

      The EU has done nothing of the sort. In fact, one could argue that the EU, in the form of the Euro has done the opposite.

    • dalai guevara

      Ahahaha! Ever contemplated running at the fringe festival, telegrillo?

      • the viceroy’s gin

        …why, you looking for a partner?

        • dalai guevara

          Now, I understand that the biggest problem you have with his effluvia is the ‘never drink before dinner’ bit. Some things are just too difficult to stomach. Ahahahahahaa!

          • the viceroy’s gin

            I’m all for drinking before dinner. For some, it makes them more sensible. You should give it a shot. What have you got to lose?

            • dalai guevara

              …the content of my wine cellar?

              • the viceroy’s gin

                In your case, for the desired effect, a stiffer beverage would be recommended.

                • dalai guevara

                  I will leave the Jaegermeister Red Bull to the 9am brandy brigade. No doubt they will claim they were still up to the job.

    • Andy

      So say the Fascists with their ‘New World Order’. Extermination Camps will soon be established for the greater glory of the ‘New World Order’ vision.

      • dalai guevara

        ‘The brothers did not display any signs of Anti-American behaviour. If they had, they would have been immediately reported to the FBI.’

        Who’s the fascist now?
        What does it feel like living in a country with 300+ different ‘intelligence agencies’?

        • the viceroy’s gin

          …you socialists feel just fine about it, no doubt.

          • dalai guevara

            No, ‘us socialists’ understand that you cannot watch each and every one of your populace all the time without being rightly branded a fascist.
            But then again, some parents still slap their children in private and believe in creationism.

            • the viceroy’s gin

              Yes, however, fascists are part of your merry socialist collective, so that’s another theory shot.

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