Coffee House

No triple-dip: GDP up by 0.3%

25 April 2013

9:30 AM

25 April 2013

9:30 AM

The UK seems to have avoided a triple-dip recession. According to today’s estimate from the Office for National Statistics, the economy grew by 0.3 per cent in the first three months of 2013.

But it is important to remember that this is just a first estimate, with a margin of error of ±0.7 points. So today’s figure could still be revised down to show a triple-dip, or revised up to show stronger growth.

This still leaves GDP 2.6 per cent below its pre-recession peak, five years after the downturn hit.

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Historical recessions

And here’s how we compare to our competitors in David Cameron’s ‘global race’:

International recessions

 

 


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Show comments
  • Jez

    Whoopeee!!!

  • Troika21

    Nothing to crow about.

  • Mr Creosote

    Construction appears to continue it’s inexorable decline, but this runs counter to my local experience, where many new projects seem to have started in the last few months. The log-jam that is the planning system is slowly freeing up – a summer recovery is just around the corner. Vote for the kippers on May 2nd!

    • Makroon

      “Vote for the kippers” ? How will that help exactly ?

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

        Good that the cold winter increased demand for gas and electricity….if we can continue this consumption throughout the “Summer” things will look up for utility bonuses

        • Makroon

          Yawn.

          • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

            Turn the gas down so you don’t nod off

      • Mr Creosote

        We could do with some loons and fruitcakes stirring things up at County Council level – if nothing else they can act as whistle-blowers for the monumental incompetence and waste (kippers are not whipped and are free to speak their minds, especially to the press)……..I rest my case.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

      Where do you live ?

  • ScaryBiscuits

    0.3% is a statistical zero and nobody should be too impressed.

    Under Osborne, Britain has become once again the ‘sick man of Europe’, with worse performance than almost every country except the Club Med. The funny thing is why people expect anything different? Why should ‘cutting the deficit’, as he and Cameron always talk about, produce growth? Cutting government spending (and putting that money back in the pockets of taxpayers): yes. But simply increasing taxes and (worse) printing money to close temporarily the gap between out-of-control spending and declining receipts, simply puts off the problem for another day. Despite what the Conservative optimists think, we should expect similarly anaemic growth from similarly wet fiscal policy for the next two years. And a Labour government at the end of it.

    • allymax bruce

      The new ‘money-maker’ is the Sterling Zone my Scots SNP government initiated on Tuesday; it’s going to generate massive amounts of money for The City.
      But that can only happen when Scotland becomes independent in a couple of years time. The sooner Scotland gets its independence, the better for all of us!

      • Nicholas chuzzlewit

        In your dreams. I agree however that the sooner you separate yourselves entirely from England the better it will be. Just get lost.

  • allymax bruce

    Lies, lies, and more lies from the ONS; the margin of error is 0.36%, set-against a ‘stated’ growth of 0.3%; this means UK is in a tripple-dip recession.
    And it’s all Osborne’s fault !

    • Molly

      There speaks an expert from the “arc of prosperity”.

      • allymax bruce

        If we don’t replace Buffoon Osborne quickly, we will all need an Ark of Legitimacy!

        I saw him in Glesca Tuesday, and he is a complete & utter buffoon; he talked the biggest load o’ pash ever heard in Glasgow; and that’s saying summin!

        The sooner Scotland gets its Indpendence, and we begin our new Sterling zone, the sooner we can utilise a new way for The City to ‘cash-in’ on the euro’s loss!

        • Russell

          Many English like myself wish you would f*** off to an Independent Scotchland asap.

          • http://www.facebook.com/people/David-Julian-Price/653286113 David Julian Price

            If you did, Labour would never get in power in England, Wales and Northern Ireland ever again, and we’d not get shafted by the Scots like Gordon ‘McRuin’ Brown ever again. Hey, maybe you could get him to run your newly independent economy? Third World GDP beckons…

          • The Sage

            Yes, and without using our currency in the process.

        • Nicholas chuzzlewit

          The identity of our Chancellor of the Exchequer will be absolutely no business whatsoever of the people of Scotland after 2014 so get used to the idea.

          • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

            Why ? Scotland will be part of the Union in 2020. What i do wonder if how the next monarch will be crowned after Idiot Major returned The Stone of Scone

    • Russell

      Lies, lies and more lies from allymax bruce!
      The reported likely margin of error (as on BBC 24 just now) is +-0.2% or +- 0.3%, which means it cannot possibly be a recession, but could be as high as 0.6% growth!
      It is without doubt all Brown & Balls fault (and a little bit of Darling).

      • allymax bruce

        Russell, the short term margin of error is 0.2%, but the long term margin for error is 0.36%.
        Glad to help.
        But you’re right about Crash Gordon, and Billiard Balls; they made a complete mess of our economy; I wouldn’t let them run a petty cash book!

      • http://owsblog.blogspot.com Span Ows

        I think allymax may well be right about ‘lies’ but wrong about it being Osborne’s fault. I think what ScaryBiscuits says is true “why people expect anything different?”, it was an almost impossible situation and bouncing along the bottom for several years is what many predicted.

        • HookesLaw

          Brown destroyed our financial system and the taxes it generated and even under Brown growth was driven by consumerism and imports. All paid for by a housing bubble.
          Even with all that growth, such as it was Brown still ran deficits. the British economy rotted under Brown.

          Hence the performance we are seeing now is the real level of left over performance from Brown.

          • http://owsblog.blogspot.com Span Ows

            I agree entirely, maybe my comment wasn’t clear.

      • allymax bruce

        Russell, (et al), the reason I said ‘Lies, lies, and more lies from the ONS’, is because they, (like the recent report about the collusion between Westminster gov’, and the top 4 accoutancy firms), ARE colluding with the Westminster gov’, also!
        There’s no ‘gov’ agency, that pretends to be ‘independent’, is actually independent; they all collude with Westminster gov’ !

    • Gareth

      I’m the first one to criticise Osborne’s policies. But you clearly don’t understand how statistical estimates work. The ONS makes its early ‘best guess’ based on the data is has available; this is the figure released today. Its accuracy will improve as more data become available, but it is as likely to rise as to fall. This is not lies, it’s merely the impossibility of knowing every transaction by every person and every company in the UK in the last three months.

  • allymax bruce

    Lies, lies, and more lies from ONS; the margin of error is 0.36%, set-against a ‘stated’ growth of 0.3%; who’s kidding who?

    The UK is in a tripple-dip recession; and Osborne is to blame.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/David-Julian-Price/653286113 David Julian Price

      2 points to make here. First, it could go up to +0.6%, or down to 0%, so either way it’s not a tripple [sic] dip recession. Second, whether it is 0, 0.3 or 0.6%, it’s still basically ‘stagflation’ – very little growth with the economy going nowhere. So neither side should be self-congratulatory…

      • HookesLaw

        Bruce is the new Red Queen – ‘words mean what I want them to mean’

        its pathetic to watch.

    • http://owsblog.blogspot.com Span Ows

      you could at least have deleted your repeated comment.

    • Nicholas chuzzlewit

      You cannot even spell triple and to blame one man for the sluggishness of the British economy is utterly fatuousand no more than emotional sloganising. Of course, if the ONS had reported a contraction in our economy you would be trumpeting the numbers as if they were Copper bottomed. Besides, the UK, we hope, will no longer be any concern of yours after you vote for Scottish independence. So concentrate your mind on finding and naming a new currency for yourselves and wondering how quickly you can turn Scotland into North Korea.

  • Shazza

    Ed Balls will be crying into his lasagne tonight

    • Mr Creosote

      Apparently Ed’s solution is to guarantee everyone who has been unemployed for over twelve months a government-backed job, paid for out of tax money (borrowed). What a fat fool.

    • tele_machus

      Yes
      Crying that we are not actually growing when we could be
      Crying that we could be holding our heads up with both growth and deficit reduction if only there had been investment in infrastucture at the outset of the coalition when we were actually growing before Osborne choked it off by the crass axe on capital spending

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