Coffee House

Lib Dems hold Eastleigh as UKIP force Tories into third

1 March 2013

2:58 AM

1 March 2013

2:58 AM

It was a successful night for the Liberal Democrats in Eastleigh and a disastrous one for the Tories. The Liberal Democrats held on with a majority a touch over 1,700. While the Tories came third, polling more than a thousand votes behind UKIP who surged in to second place. Labour had nothing to cheer either, coming a poor fourth—a result that makes it hard for Ed Miliband to claim they are a ‘one nation’ party.

There’ll be three immediate political consequences of this result. First, Nick Clegg’s position is strengthened. Holding the seat with a majority of more than a thousand, demonstrates that the Liberal Democrats are not in the dire position that the national polls suggest. Clegg, despite all his Lord Rennard difficulties, will head to Liberal Democrat Spring Conference armed with evidence that the coalition isn’t going to be fatal to the party in 2015.

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Second, David Cameron will face more soundings off against his leadership. The failure to take a seat off the Liberal Democrats in these circumstances—the previous MP quitting after pleading guilty to attempting to pervert the course of justice and the Liberal Democrats embroiled in a sleaze scandal for the week before polling day—illustrates just how hard it’ll be for the Tories to take 15 to 20 seats off them in 2015. This knocks out a key plank of the CCHQ majority strategy. While, UKIP pushing Tories into second will increase backbench concern about the threat posed by Britain’s new protest party. Tory MPs will warn that allowing all Romanian and Bulgarian workers who want it entry to Britain from the end of this year is going to compound this problem.

Third, UKIP have shown that they are now—at least, when it comes to by-elections—a serious force. In Eastleigh, they’ve gone in a short campaign from 3.6% of the vote in 2010 to 28% tonight. One imagines that if there was another by-election in a Liberal-Conservative marginal, UKIP could take it. They’ve also in Diane James found a serious, impressive female voice for the party.

Labour, though, should be concerned by this result however bad it is for Cameron. The fact that their vote increased by a mere 0.2% in a seat held by a coalition party is, by any measure, poor. It suggests that the party’s message on the economy and living standards isn’t cutting through in the south. It’s also notable that the 10p tax cut doesn’t seem to have delivered for Labour in this contest.

Full result:
Mike Thornton (LD) 13,342 (32.06%, -14.48%)
Diane James (UKIP) 11,571 (27.80%, +24.20%)
Maria Hutchings (C) 10,559 (25.37%, -13.96%)
John O’Farrell (Lab) 4,088 (9.82%, +0.22%)
Danny Stupple (Ind) 768 (1.85%, +1.56%)
Dr Iain Maclennan (NHA) 392 (0.94%)
Ray Hall (Beer) 235 (0.56%)
Kevin Milburn (Christian) 163 (0.39%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 136 (0.33%)
Jim Duggan (Peace) 128 (0.31%)
David Bishop (Elvis) 72 (0.17%)
Michael Walters (Eng Dem) 70 (0.17%, -0.30%)
Daz Procter (TUSC) 62 (0.15%)
Colin Bex (Wessex Reg) 30 (0.07%)
LD maj 1,771 (4.26%)
19.34% swing LD to UKIP

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Show comments
  • AlexanderGalt

    Not least of the reasons for defeat is the Conservatives failing to live up to their pledge on immigration.

    Incidentally, on a related subject there’s a great take on how the crime of treason is likely to make a comeback in the wake of the Birmingham terror plot in: “Humpty
    and his Numpties” at:

    http://john-moloney.blogspot.com/

  • Watcher

    The Conservatives can win the next three elections with ease; firm up on the EU referendum; cut all development aid to Scotland (Barnett Money). The Scots will howl in protest and vote for independence, QED England is Conservative for at least twenty years. The real problem, they just don’t want it enough.

  • Bill Brinsmead

    …. disastrous … for the Tories. Lighten up James. A disaster had she won. Sad to see the Speccie spouting Telegraph type tosh.

  • CHRISTOPHER WHITE

    Your own figures show that LD vote fell by almost 1/3 – interesting thing is that they must have gone to UKIP not LAB – indicates that high proportion of LD vote 2010 was ‘a plague on both your houses’.

  • Carlotty1222

    I think some of the right wing ‘headbangers’ on here make a terrible mistake when they suggest that the more right wing the Tories are the more chance they have of winning. That is not the case.

    As Peter Htichens pointed out last week (and he is no lefty) the public do not think in simplistic terms of left and right in the same way polticians do (and those who are polticially minded). The public tend to be more practical than that.

    So, there are many policies of the right that the public do agree with. Such as a massive reduction in immigration, strong law and order, reduction of benefits to those who wont work and an utter disdain for the obsession with Green issues.

    BUT – They also value things the right don’t. They love their NHS whereas many on the right want to see it privatised. They value the social care and support for the disabled and the old. Something again a lot of right wingers want to destroy and create a culture where you only get care if you can afford it. They dislike the way that the Tories seem to create policies to favour big business and millionaires at the publics expense. (letting multinationals and millionaires avoid tax) and most of all they fume when they see the bankers causing much of our economic crisis but carrying on just as before, but with the Tories blessing.

    Now you don’t have to be strategic genius to see how all this melts into one basic idea. That most familes want the opportunity to do the best for themselves and their familes but want safety nets there if they fall. Plus they don’t want people either at the top or the bottom of society ripping them off.
    It’s not hard, is it?

    But neither is it strictly a series of right wing only policies. indeed some of the right wing policies such as privatising the NHS are a total turn off for the public.
    Maragaret Thatcher got it right, not because she was hard right – but because she managed to convey to the ordinary families she was on their side. Tony Blair managed the same trick, though in his case it was just that – a trick. And the public have not forgiven him for that.

    Cameron is failing not because he is a liberal ort supports gay marriage (look how Blair won again despite the Iraq war) but becuase he is seen as favouring big business and millionaires and NOT ordinary working familes. That’s the problem Cameron has to sort out.

  • Minnie

    I wonder if the dislocation of the Conservative leaders from the opinions of the Electorate is so far gone that they will completely misread what has just happened?

    Mr Cameron, the man with a tin ear, may not understand that the fault lies completely with him and his quixotic actions.

    Unless the Conservative Party make an attempt to really understand that, ultimately, the people have the power to chuck them out of office unless they radically change their policies, then they will have little to no chance in the next election.

    The trouble is that the people see a pink, pusillanimous and pompous Emperor with no clothes on but Mr Cameron and his cabinet do not.

  • Oliver Hylton

    Cameron has failed his party and, more importantly therefore, the country in spectacular fashion: if an external enemy of Conservatism had carefully plotted a strategy to bring it down, they could not have done so more comprehensively. As someone has already said, there is absolutely no point in voting for any one of the three main parties as they have for too long been dancing on the head of a pin (to use Luther’s words): such a state is neither desirable nor democratic.

  • http://twitter.com/ianwalkeruk Ian Walker

    Labour have a message? Who knew?

  • MichtyMe

    Nobody got any comment on the largest block, the half that did not vote, who are they? the happy contented, unconcerned with the obsessions expressed here?

    • Hexhamgeezer

      …….or indeed on Scots Nat issues……..

  • Swiss Bob

    Hilarious result, just a shame the bent LibDems had already stitched up the postal vote to deprive UKIP of their first MP.

  • Chris lancashire

    It’s a by-election. The children came out to play. Get over it. Prime Minister Farage will not be leading the chosen few down to Dover to pull up the drawbridge on all these nasty Johnny Foreigners.
    When the dust settles the choice remains the same – Conservative or Labour.
    Vote UKIP get Labour.

    • Stalwart Steve

      So what? Is that some sort of threat? There is no difference between Labour, LibDem and Conservative. It is a one Party programme. Vote UKIP and start to make a difference. Vote for one of the One Party State parties and that is what you will get.

      • Chris lancashire

        No threat. Just logic.

        • Stalwart Steve

          Cobblers. If the three parties represent one programme then they are one party. By definition.

          • Colonel Mustard

            They might represent one programme but they have very different ways of managing it. As you will find out after 2015 when Cameron might not look so bad after all.

      • Chris lancashire

        By the by, if you are voting for “one of the One Party State parties” by definition they aren’t.

      • Colonel Mustard

        When Labour regain power in 2015 you will discover the difference.

    • Noa

      So. As that’s no choice really, I might as well continue to vote UKIP.

      • Chris lancashire

        Might as well. We’re all looking forward to welcoming PM Farrage.

        • Noa

          That would be a major improvement on DPM Clegg.

        • 2trueblue

          No, it will be Balls/Millipede.

          • Noa

            So, other than blaming UKIP, what are you harbingers of doom actually doing to create some conservative policies within the erstwhile Conservative party and it’s ineffectual leadership?

            • 2trueblue

              Not blaming UKIP, blaming those who will help the delivery of Liebore as the next government, the voters. Do not belong to the party.

  • vvputout

    In the light of this result and Rumpy-Pumpy’s observations yesterday, introduce a Bill to fix the EU referendum date for the same date as the 2015 general election.

  • Russell

    And the best quip heard at Eastleigh…..

    “If the Conservatives hadn’t split our vote we’d have won, wouldn’t we
    Nigel Farage, Ukip leader.

    Hilarious and more importantly true. Bad day for Cameron, Bad day for Miliband, good day for the electorate although not quite an ‘Italy’ moment.

    • Colonel Mustard

      No, unfortunately not a bad day for Miliband who will be able to create capital from this.

      • 2trueblue

        And with lots of help from the BBC.

  • Daniel Maris

    Another triumph for the master strategist George Osborne and his minion Grant Shapps…

    Also, another lesson for the Spectator writers here who constantly play down the influence of UKIP and the significance of the mass immigration issue.

    To take one example, a big local issue that the Lib Dems benefitted from, ironically, was a proposal to build 1400 homes in the constituency. Such schemes are an indication of the pressure on housing in the South. Eastleigh’s residents understood we are “full up” and that augmenting the population through mass immigraiton can only have the effect of diminishing our quality of life. The Conservatives, with their talk of “net” migration seem not to understand this.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

      The Tories are in the developers pockets. They get £300,000 pa through a Developer Lobby Group and gave State-underwritten 95% MOrtgages to selected Developers to sell NEW houses

  • Boudicca_Icenii

    I went canvassing for UKIP on Monday. A lot of postal votes were placed before the Rennard scandal took off and I expect they were overwhelmingly for the LibDems.
    If the scandal had broken a week earlier, or the campaign had gone on for another week, UKIP might have pinched first place.
    Still …. what a delight to see Cameron an the LibCONs get the kicking in the ballot-box which they deserved. I wonder how he feels knowing that 28% of the electorate are now officially the “loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists” he despises.

    • Andy

      Trouble is Conservatives like me can’t bring ourselves to vote UKIP because if we do we let the Labour Party in. And I for one wont do that.

      • Colonel Mustard

        Me too. It is sad to see the animosity between UKIPpers and Conservatives when the real enemy of both are Labour and the Lib Dems, both still undeservedly riding high as a result.

        • Andy

          I agree. I loath the EU but I’m damned if I will vote UKIP and allow Fascists in. I understand why Boudicca works for UKIP, but their attitude merely makes what they hate and loath reality. Both Labour and the LibDems are so pro EU it must be painful for them.

          • Wessex Man

            Typical head in the sand, Call me Dave views you as a number!

            • Stalwart Steve

              There is no animosity between UKIPers and conservatives. But the Conservative Party is NOT conservative. So why support it. Would you support the Chinese Communist Party if it was renamed the Chinese Conservative Party.

              It’s difficult to imagine a more harmful Government than the one we have. Today a police chaplain was sacked because he would not promote gay marriage, and that is not even on the statute book. Who could support such a party and such a Government?

              • 2trueblue

                If you think it is difficult to imagine a more harmful government that our present regime, wait, it will be delivered in 2015, it will be named the Lab/Dums and we can kiss goodbye to democracy very soon afterwards.

                The LibDums and Liebore are not interested in democracy as we saw when the boundary issue was buried. One denied it and the latter would not have voted for change. The LibDums are also quite happy that the UK is under represented in the EU parliament with only 78 MEPs, whereas 15 countries with a total same size population have over 130 MEPs. There is no democracy here or there.

      • Noa

        The trouble is that the Conservatives are no longer conservative, having assumed the ‘New’ raiment and portmanteau discarded by a now red toothed and clawed socialist Labour party.

        Whilst Cameron has the party pander to the ‘centre’ left he and it will get reciprocal treatment from the despised fruitcakes and loonies.

      • Vulture

        Will you continue to do that once UKIP start to beat the Cameron Conservatives on a regular basis Andy?

        UKIP are the new Tories.

      • Bickers

        Andy, the Cons are relying on voters like you to turn a blind eye to the fact they are not Conservatives anymore. Vote with conviction, vote UKIP

      • 2trueblue

        I have to agree with a heavy heart that you are right, but I will vote UKIP in the EU elections.

      • ArchiePonsonby

        Then you’re a fool!

    • Yiftertheshifter

      You will never win. This is protest vote.

    • ArchiePonsonby

      Well done, you and your lot, Boadicea!

  • Russell

    Tony Blair said a few days ago that the war in Iraq was worth the loss of over 100,000 Iraqi lives and 170 British armed forces lives to ‘get rid of Saddam’!
    Blair conveniently forgets to say that he stood in parliament and said Saddam could remain in power if he gave up WMD and the only reason parliament vote for war was Blairs insistence that Iraq had WMD and could use it within 45 minutes.

    Labour then put forward a candidate in Eastleigh who wished that the UK PM Mrs Thatcher had been assassinated by the IRA and that the UK had lost the Falklands war!
    Prescott appears on Brillo show and comments about men in power abusing women conveniently not mentioning bonking a civil servant in a government office!
    You really couldn’t make it up.

    Roll on the EU MEP elections next year when labour, LibDem and Tories will get wiped out by UKIP, and hopefully in any bye-elections before then.

    The three pro EU parties are going to suffer heavily over the next 2 years.

    • Colonel Mustard

      Labour won’t suffer. You watch. They will gain from all this.

    • George_Arseborne

      So how is it related to the Tory FLUFF? You should be worried about Cameron future than commenting about Blair who won an Election after the war. This is typical waste of commenting space. Cameron can not convince a dog , talk less of electorate

      • 2trueblue

        Reading your posts, how many of you are there? In one post you sound literate and coherent, and yet 30mins later you post a totally incoherent, badly structured post, or maybe your pills are working.

  • anyfool

    This election shows how debased the country has become, what do political parties have to do to be punished by the electorate.

    That the people in Eastleigh could not drag themselves away from their petty loyalties does not bode well for this country.

    • davebush999

      I agree – it’s amazing that anyone voted tory.

  • alabenn

    If UKIP have any sense they will have a very close look at the postal ballots.

    • ArchiePonsonby

      Correct! It’s not the votes that count, it’s who counts the votes!

  • Paddy Briggs

    Turnout corrected #Eastleigh voting cf 2010: LibDem -5234. Con -5142. Lab +245 UKIP +10133. Suggests UKIP gains came equally from LD and Con

    • 2trueblue

      What is the breakdown for the postal votes? Thanks fro the recent info.

  • Colonel Mustard

    Well, all the UKIP “protest” vote managed to achieve was to ensure that the ghastly Lib Dems held the seat. As it will ensure that Labour is the next government.

    Some strategy for conservatives that.

    • Fergus Pickering

      Yes indeed, Colonel. But see my posting above, if it gets past moderation.

      • Stalwart Steve

        Surely the LibDems only won this seat because of postal votes. The votes on the day gave UKIP the victory. There needs to be a real investigation of the way in which postal voting in various places is changing the outcomes of elections, not only through deliberate fraud and the registration of non-existent people, but through the pressure put on people in a household to vote a certain way, and the fact that most of the last aspects of the electoral campaign will not be able to have any effect on electors who have already sent off their vote.

        If James Forsyth thinks that Clegg has nothing to fear from the result of this particular election, and that far from having only 8% support the LibDems are poised for national glory, then he is enitirely deluded and the growing support for the LibDems by this magazine are becoming more evident.

        • Colonel Mustard

          I agree that the prevalence of postal voting is worrying. But as we approach becoming a third world country it probably goes with the territory.

      • Fergus Pickering

        It didn’t. What I said was that the result is good for the Coalition because it keeps Clegg at the top of the Lib Dems, rather than Old Man Vince, the Business Secretary whose name escapes me, or some mad woman whose name I never knew. And therefore Cameron’s government will last till 2015, by which time the little local difficulty over gay marriage will be forgotten and (who knows) the economy may be looking up. And possibly the euro will have collapsed. Lots of nice things.

    • Boudicca_Icenii

      Yes. The Tories split the UKIP vote. Silly them.

      • Colonel Mustard

        UKIP will never be a political force in Britain beyond being an anachronistic rearguard. 2014 will see to that. The UK which UKIP uses for identity is facing break up. Once Labour return in 2015 their cultural revolution will continue in ways that will ensure English conservatives never again have a legitimate political influence. The deck has long been stacked. Sadly all UKIP will achieve is to ensure that Labour and the EU project become unassailable.

        • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

          Labour won’t return in 2015. The Election will be in 2013/2014. There is no majority available to any party any more. In just 4 years every mainstream party has made things WORSE. There is nothing but DEJA-VU on offer

          • Andy

            I disagree. Labour will end up with a majority simply because it is easy for them to get one – the electoral system ensures it. The Colonel is probably right: Labour will do everything they can to make sure that the Conservatives, or anyone else for that matter, can never gain power again. We are getting closer to the establishment of a one party state. God help us all.

            • Stalwart Steve

              We already have a one party state, it may use three names, but it is the same programme. If people keep on voting for the one party state then it will survive. Those voting Conservative are as much to blame as those voting Labour or LibDem.

              • Colonel Mustard

                Not quite the same programme. After New Labour Cameron has been disappointing. He did not dismantle the socialist PC state as promised and did not purge its many placemen as he should have done. He has shifted the Conservatives to the left in a political arena where the centre ground has already moved left. But to describe this coalition government as no different to Labour is both naive and factually incorrect. Labour is the dangerous reality of two pale imitators as we shall discover to our cost when they regain power. That is going to be thanks to Cameron and UKIP.

            • 2trueblue

              Postal votes will hand the next election to Liebore. That and the BBC.

        • dmitri the impostor

          That would hold water, Colonel, if Conservative Party had shown so much as token resistance to European mission creep since 2010. Can you exhibit any such token?

          • Colonel Mustard

            I’m writing as a conservative not a Conservative. I’m not here as a representative or apologist for what the Conservative party has become under Cameron. If anything I am anti-socialist and anti-EU but I believe in strategies that win.

            • dmitri the impostor

              If the Conservatives are actives midwives of the European dystopia (for which I would cite Theresa May’s initiative on gay marriage – see Christopher Booker, DT 09.02.13), then what are you claiming is the objective of this strategy? I made no assumptions as to your own allegiance, BTW.

              • Colonel Mustard

                I am not claiming anything as the objective of “this” strategy because I don’t believe there is one. I have to agree about the direction of travel but both Farage and Cameron should have long ago realised the end result of their competition would be the destruction of a viable conservative alternative in British politics for the foreseeable future. The real enemy is socialism and Labour who have gained from the endeavours of both. It is the very absence of a conservative strategy that is the problem.

                • dmitri the impostor

                  Until someone produces some plausible evidence that Cameron’s administration has any intention to arrest the direction of travel, which I use to mean total governance by transnational bureacrats, I respectfully contest your view that Cameron and Farage are in competition. I am also unsure whether it advances formulation of strategy or strategies to isolate a single real enemy. There are several, at present, mutually reinforcing enemies, which I am sure it would be superfluous to list.

                • Colonel Mustard

                  I believe them to be, effectively, in competition, simply because they more or less represent the polarised views within the Conservative party (traditional vs “progressive”) and to an extent contribute to that polarisation by their unwillingness to refrain from incontinently aggressive language towards each other. Cameron has failed as a conservative leader by not consolidating conservative opinion within a workable strategy but instead dividing it into the animosity seen here.

            • Noa

              Well, I don’t think Cameron’s strategy will win, but Farage’s seems to have a good chance of success.

              What is more people believe in it.

              • 2trueblue

                Yep, and some people believe in fairies. All it will do is deliver victory to Liebore and with a little help perhaps from the LibDums. Be prepared for the UK to be totally destroyed.

                • Noa

                  So you thin Cameron is useless, but you’ll continue to support him because he seems marginally less worse than the alternative?

                  Well, what are you doing to change policies which Cameron has already said will remain unchanged by the Eastleigh result?

                  And you accuse me of choosing the politics of doom!

                • 2trueblue

                  I think that if Liebore get into power in 2015 we will be pretty well sunk. To avoid that I would indeed chose the lesser of two evils. That is what people do, chose the lesser of two evils to avoid catastrophe.

            • Mycroft

              My position too, all the glee here is misplaced, all this means is that Labour will have an easy ride at the next election, and the liberal-left hegemony will be reinforced. (And no EU referendum either.) I find true believers worrying, who wants to take part in a suicide mission?

        • Wessex Man

          You are in a vinger mood today, you will just have accept that we now live in a different world from the one you went to war in. It was the fruitcake Cameron who killed any possible deal with UkIP, here in classic Tory Stronghold land of fox hunting and inbuilt snobbery even those Tories who used to get out and leaflet for them have walked away from Call me Dave.

          Your party is on a slippery slope and speeding up.

          • Colonel Mustard

            It is not my party. I am not a member of any political party.

        • Chris lancashire

          I’m afraid it’s not a day for reality Colonel.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

      Hardly. LibDems control the whole constituency through and through – if they couldn’t hold Eastleigh they could not hold anything.

      • Colonel Mustard

        If the UKIP and Tory vote had been combined they would be out. Both Farage and Cameron are missing a trick here.

        • Noa

          Well, it’s not Farage’s fault but Cameron’s that that didn’t happen.

          • Colonel Mustard

            No, I blame both of them.

      • Hexhamgeezer

        Yes,

        It looks like their postal vote could have won it before the proper polls opened although to point that out would have reduced the expenses opportunities for the meeja parties’ trips to the wilds of Eastleigh.

    • George_Arseborne

      Oh!!!!!!!! Like Maria Hutching, why shed crocodile tears? All Cameron wanted was to be Prime Minister and never cares about the Tory. Folks should know by now.

      • Colonel Mustard

        That is an exceedingly silly comment, even for you, an imported Labour voter who cannot construct a coherent sentence but presumes to lecture about politics under a vulgar and abusive pseudonym.

    • Noa

      Colonel. It’s not a protest vote.

      Cameron and his party no longer speaks for me and many others on many issues. And he made the schism permanent for on TV with his contemptuous description of us as ‘odd people’.
      He’s now starting to find out just how many odd people there are, who don’t forget and will pay him back in kind.

      • Colonel Mustard

        If it were just about Cameron I should agree. But it’s not. It’s about this country and conservatism. This won’t change Cameron, the “modernised” Conservatives or the direction of travel. All sorts of reasons will be trotted out to justify the situation and the steered course towards a socialist “paradise” will continue. The government no longer really run anything. It is the NGO socialist hegemony and EU that call all the shots and coerce them on the path of “progress”. The next Labour government, supported rather than hindered by that combination bullying junta, won’t speak for you either, and by then there will be no realistic opposition or alternative to it.

        • Noa

          In fact most if not all of it, is about Cameron. He is the one who has personally alienated his party’s core support and vetoed any rapprochement with UKIP. A miscalculation? Bad judgement? Who knows? Who, at least in UKIP, cares?

          But Cameron has to go and the potential a relationship with UKIP established if even the limited benefits over Labour that one might foresee from a future Conservative centric government are to be achieved. A future alliance with UKIP could save the country, a renewed alliance with the Lib Dems, or Labour government will merely compound present decline.

  • James Strong

    There is one way, and I think it is the only way, that the Conservatives can win a majority at the next election.
    That is for Cameron, or whoever is the leader after the conference season, to bring in legislation in the NEXT Queen’s Speech for an in/out referendum on the EU. The existing ‘promise’ is no good.
    Of course, in the current Parliament the bill would fail because of LibDem and Labour votes against. Then there would be clear blue water for the 2015 election, if the Conservatives retained the in/out EU referendum commitment.
    Failure to bring in a Bill in this Parliament will just see tens of thousands of lost Tory votes in 2015.
    My own position, I want the UK out of the EU.

    • helicoil

      I don’t think that will do it. Any promises about after the next election are just flim-flam that the electorate will rightly treat with the contempt they deserve. He needs to announce a referendum before the next election otherwise the Tories may aswell start packing now.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

      If Cameron promised legislation to make Tuesday follow Monday he would not be believed

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

    So the LibDems have Tuition Fees, Huhne, Rennard and still hold this seat. Amazing ! That is the difference between Eastleigh and Italy – Status Quo and Inertia. At least UKIP revealed Anger and Unhappiness with the Status Quo or we would all be scratching our heads wondering just what would stir voters

    • Harold Angryperson

      Surely you mean “The status quo”? Francis Rossi must be wondering what he’s done wrong…

      • ArchiePonsonby

        “Backwater Road” Rock and roll!

    • joshlondon

      Of course the residents of Eastleigh can’t be trusted to form their own judgement!
      Your response is very patronising and illustrates an unhealthy degree of contempt.

  • paulus

    Its a shambles, a complete shambles, they dont know what they are doing, get in there get in now and clear it out, cauterize it, if they need to commit suicide take a hammer and saw and build a gallows its no good fucking around when they have made up their mind to leave us. Quicker in quicker out.

  • Malfleur

    Mene, mene, tekel, upharsin.

    http://www.coffeehousewall.co.uk/

    Friday morning should also see some moving around of chairs at Old Queen
    Street, no? – the rot set in when the leader didn’t keep his promise
    and conservatives were marginalised.

    • ArchiePonsonby

      Normally I’d agree with you, M, as well you know but I suspect that a bunker mentality might set in. These hobbledehoys will not give up power easily!

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

        Bunkers are bad places to be when encircled

        • ArchiePonsonby

          Ha ha! Good point, T T!

  • Curnonsky

    A certain pair of bulbous pink cheeks are stinging tonight. Lovely.

  • Ron Todd

    Labour put up a candidate who wanted a British PM assasinated by the IRA and the Falklands Islands handed over to a brutal dictator, in a seat that where they would get little advantage from postal voting fraud. I think that by holding on to the same share of the vote as at the last election they did well. Cameron our so called Conservative PM is the big loser. Beaten by both the liberals who were defending a seat vacated by a total cad and bounder and in the middle of gropegate and by UKIP. Suggests a lot of the anti EU project vote could be split at the next general election.

    • 2trueblue

      The fact that Liebore could even condone/allow such a person to represent them says it all. They are totally unfit to be at the helm.

      • Ron Todd

        Imagine the BBC/Guardian response if the Conservatives put up a candidate who had expressed the desire for a Labour PM to be murdered. We would of course never have such a candidate.

  • Austin Barry

    Beaten by “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists” eh, Cameron? How does that feel?

    • timinsingapore

      Austin, he’s probably pissed off with being beaten by a bunch of fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists. I would be, in his position.

    • ArchiePonsonby

      You really did take the words out of my mouth, A B! Delicious irony, what?

    • George_Arseborne

      Cameron is finish. This will be repeated in seats that Tories have slim majority over Labour in 2015. Hurray UKIP. I can put in money that the Tories will not be in power in 2015. Labour could not have done better Yesterday. They knew their position before going into contest. The Tories should be moaning now. They got the biggest kick.

    • 2trueblue

      The breakdown of the votes is interesting. Would this be replicated in a general election? It is a massive kick in the teeth for both the Tories and the LibDums.

      • Hexhamgeezer

        Haven’t stopped laughing

        My 1st message to the Cameron camp is that they, given the the LibDumps success, must align themselves even more with a centre left programme than they are at present. My 2nd is that they are clearly not taking enough notice of the good advice swirling round the Westminster Village and need to hunker down with all those folk who really know about politics – like the Spec, the BBC, CCHQ etc etc

        • Hexhamgeezer

          ….and another thing. I heard that there were 10,000 postal votes. Is that right? Do we get a breakdown of who they went to?

          • Noa

            I heard it was 40% Lib Dem, posted pre-Rennard.

        • 2trueblue

          Taking advice from those navel gazers in Westminster Village has been his problem, they are all too far removed form the real world and reality. The BBC etc have no one who is unbiased so can’t see what they can add to help him. The BBC is after all the Gaurdian on line. Frankly Cameron and the cabinet need to get out more and talk to real people.

    • Vulture

      The men in the white coats, or at least grey suits, need to come for Cameron now.

      Let’s be clear: if he stays in charge of the shambles Labour will win in 2015 by a country mile.

      But if Tory MPs find their brains and their guts ( a tall order, admittedly) the Right has a chance.

      They have only this year to do it. The May local elections and the looming prospects of 29 million penniless Bulgarians and Rumanians arriving on our shores might even do the trick..

      Until then, UKIP will continue to hoover up more and more votes from those who want their country back.

      • Andy

        Cameron is doomed. He is a busted flush.

        • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004981542519 Tom Tom

          Attendance at a few gay weddings should boost his image…….somewhere

          • Andy

            Yes, on Old Compton Street.

      • http://twitter.com/RTaylor_MEP Rebecca Taylor

        Do you really think that the entire combined population of Bulgaria (7m) and Romania (22m) is going to decamp to the UK next January? Do you really think all Bulgarians and Romanians are penniless and unemployed?

        A few facts:
        – Bulgarians tend to go to Germany, Romanians to Italy and Spain.
        – All EU countries will remove restrictions for Bulgarians & Romanians, so they will have a choice of the UK plus many other countries too, should they wish to live elsewhere in the EU.
        – Several million Bulgarians & Romanians already emigrated within the EU in the last few years, so most that wanted to leave did already.
        – Bulgarians and Romanians can already work in the UK as self employed persons and highly educated individuals (masters degree & professional experience) can fairly easily (although with administrative delay) obtain a highly skilled migrant visa.

        The idea that the UK is some kind of paradise that will entice all and sundry is not supported by the fact that net migration is down. The downward trend surely has a lot to do with economics; If people think they’ll struggle to find work abroad, they won’t go.

    • Andy

      And had Nigel Farage stood he would have won.

      • Noa

        Perhaps it’s better that he didn’t stand. UKIP has to avoid the danger of being seen as a one man party-which, of course, it isn’t.

        • Hexhamgeezer

          Aye, Diane james was a good candidate who more than held her own. Farrell just came across as a berk.

      • ArchiePonsonby

        Have to disagree, Andy. Nige has to stay out of that nest of vipers in Westminster and be out and about. I DO wish though that he would put Roger Helmer in front more to share the load. He is very erudite and quick-witted.

    • helicoil

      I love Farage’s quote on the box this morning- “If only the Tories hadn’t split the UKIP vote”. Classic!

    • Noa

      Yes, yet demonising your party’s ex-core supporters as ‘odd people’, whilst plumping up the pillows for homo-marriage would never strike a nouveau metrosexual like Cameron as being in anyway odd itself.

      • Fergus Pickering

        Now why are you allowed to say that and I wasn’t allowed to make a joke about gays. Ah! It’s making a joke. About gays. You can’t do that.

        • Noa

          Oh don’t take it to heart Fergus.

          My posts are always getting booted off here by mods into the seventh circle of cyberspace.

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