Presidential Predictions: Barack Obama 294 Mitt Romney 244 - Spectator Blogs

6 November 2012

7:37 PM

6 November 2012

7:37 PM

Asked my prediction a few days ago, I looked at all the possibilities and plumped for Obama 294, Romney 244. This is tediously in the middle of the general range of possible outcomes and therefore not the kind of wild-assed, long-shot punt anyone can occasionally ride to more fame than they merit. Sometimes even lousy gamblers or poker players get lucky.

Anyway: I think Barack Obama will lose Indiana , North Carolina, Colorado and Florida to Mitt Romney but hang on in New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Virginia and Ohio. That would leave this map, drawn from the excellent 270 To Win.

Like the rest of us, I’m guessing here. But it’s only reasonable to publish those guesses. So what’s yours? Leave your best guess in the comments. Those left before the polls close will be considered braver than those recorded later…

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  • cg

    Looks like a very big win for the President. I’m just glad that the likes of James Delingpole, a sometimes talented writer, will have their stupid statements about Obama shoved right up their jacksies

  • Baron

    it’s over only when the fat lady sings, boys, be patient, the messiah will lose, lose big.

    • cg

      Is Messiah your pet name for Romney then? Ha ha ha

  • jalu

    i don’t know about VA but everything else is right. florida is red, iowa loves obama plus he doesn’t need iowa to get to 270 the state that can decide this election is ohio and if the voted mitt all i can say is shame on them!!

  • Steve

    My preference would be for Romney to win but I think you’ve made a pretty good guess here. I’d say Nevada might go red and as Ken said Iowa. I think Obama might just hold Florida in which case Romney’s toast.

    • CraigStrachan

      Agree that the President might just win Florida.

      I’ll say he gets over 300 electoral voters regardless. So:

      303 Obama

      235 Romney

      And that’s probably a floor for the President.

  • Ken

    I think 290-248. I disagree with you on Colorado and Virginia. Only other state I see possibly turning red is Iowa.