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Labour’s Andy Sawford wins Corby from Conservatives in by-election

16 November 2012

3:56 PM

16 November 2012

3:56 PM

Labour have won Corby from the Conservatives, and with a larger swing than most pundits were predicting. Its majority of more than 7,000 means that Labour now holds the seat with a larger majority than it did after the 2001 election.

The Tories are already pointing to several factors to explain the scale of their defeat. It’s mid-term and the fact that Louise Mensch had quit the seat having won it last time to move to New York definitely hurt them. But it is still a poor, if not spectacularly so, result for them. I suspect it will lead to increased jitters on the Tory benches as MPs work out what a 12.7 per cent swing would do to their majorities.

For Labour, it is an encouraging sign. In his acceptance speech, Andy Sawford, the victorious candidate, emphasised that this was a victory for ‘one-nation Labour’ and that ‘the road to Downing Street runs through Corby’. Now, again this is a mid-term by-election and it is hyperbole to say, as he did, that ‘middle England has spoken’. But it does give Ed Miliband some momentum and a good platform from which to continue his explanation of ‘one-nation Labour’.


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  • http://www.facebook.com/albert.cooper.507 Albert Cooper

    If the Conservative Party took a strong stance on Europe they would clean up.but as it is they are wishie washie about the suject so deserve what they get…UKIP are now power brokers at the least

  • M. Wenzl

    I think there is a major caveat to be made to the idea that “the road to Downing Street runs through Corby”. The Corby electorate absolutely HATED Louise Mensch. Hate may seem like a strong word, but on Question Time (in Corby this week), when a panelist said something along the lines of “Louise Mensch wasn’t interested in promoting Corby; Louise Mensch was only interested in promoting Louise Mensch”, he was met with rapturous applause. Based on several interviews with various members of the Corby electorate, what really came across was that 1) Louise Mensch never seemed to be there; 2) despite never being there, she still found the time to publicise herself in the media and on TV; and 3) she was incredibly full of herself.

    Granted, Labour likely would have won anyway, especially down to the collapse in the Lib Dem vote and the hefty portion of the Tory vote UKIP picked up — but I think Ms Mensch was a large factor that swayed people’s votes.

  • TomTom

    What is it with Louise Mensch – she moves to New York and her sister moves to LA……clearly they don’t think much of the future in Britain under this government

    • 2trueblue

      Mensch just cared too much about Mensch. Nothing more, nothing less. There was nothing going on between her ears that was going to get delayed to process and work out what she had taken on.

  • Anthony Makara

    It is no surprise that Labour should adopt the One Nation platform as the Conservative party is riddled with Neoliberal ideologues, many of whom are not even in the party but control its policy though lobbying, think tanks and blogs, these are people who hate the state, to the point of being anti-social, who calculate all policy in terms of fiscal audit and who have divided the Nation by picking winners and losers. The Conservative Party hasn’t been a One Nation party for thirty years. The role of government is to govern for everyone, not a select group of achievers. The homeless have just as much need of good government as those who own several homes. All persons in our country should be equal in rights and social status. The Conservative Party, like the GOP in the United States, must understand that government has to be for all, both parties must rein in a damaging Neoliberal current that already looks passe.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      What in the hell are you on about?

      • Anthony Makara

        Did I touch on a raw nerve? The Conservative Party has to distance itself from the very people who are a barrier to broader support. Pandering to those who resent paying their taxes or who hold other egocentric views alienates the support the party could hope to achieve from those who believe in social cohesion and developing a better standard of living for everyone. Society cannot be based on the individual.

        • Rhoda Klapp

          Tories need to go for the socialist vote? Those people will never vote tory.

          I resent paying my taxes. Why should I not, when the money is not responsibly spent?

          • Anthony Makara

            Interpreting taxation in terms of personal value-for-money is impossible. We can only view taxation as a whole. The waste you talk about is often ideological in origin. For example IDS is going to prop up bad wages at the taxpayers expense, that shouldn’t be happening under any government. Yes savings can be made but stripping the state bare at a time when there isn’t enough credit in the system for the private sector to replace the services it provides is irresponsible. The current government seems more intent on breaking up everything built by the last government than in trying to develop a strategy of its own. Government by antithesis isn’t really government is it?

            • Rhoda Klapp

              If we have a socialist (or collectivist, or left, or whatever) tparty then that is the one those of that persuasion can vote for. Your idea seems to be that the other one (out of the big two) ought to be socialist or whatever as well, because only your preference can be valid. That isn’t really what a two-party system is about. The selfish greedy evil people need a choice too. Those who want small government and low tax need a voice too. Those who view collectivism as an ideal which cannot be realised without undue coercion need a choice too. Nobody is trying to deny you your choice, but you seem to want to limit the other choices.

              • Anthony Makara

                Ideological government is always dangerous and I certainly don’t support the idea that collectivism is the answer as demand can’t be prompted and led but has to be responded to. However the ideological thinking that was ushered in during the Thatcher/Joseph era wasn’t old fashioned micro capitalism but a crude ideological attempt by government to control demand and cost through the use of interest rates, a policy which destroyed industry and left Sterling artificially overvalued, something which still hurts our competitive exports today. This outlook represented a massive sea-change in British politics and took us into ideological territory with Labour following suit and becoming more extreme as a response with the likes of Militant and others. The ‘Not for turning’ mentality that we saw in the 1980s still exists today and it is driven by an ideological hatred of the State which is disguised as fiscal restructuring. Labour seem to understand and have pinpointed the Conservative Party’s ideological nature and have made point of it many times. Hence Labour’s reinvention as the One Nation party, which they will present to the electorate as being free of ideology.

                • Colonel Mustard

                  But it won’t be free of ideology, That will just be cloaked to gain the power necessary to oppress us all in diverse and different ways. The Labour party is a party of charlatans, of evil national socialist gangsters whose vapid stupidity and malevolence threatens the destruction of the birthright of everyone. And the one nation won’t be the English nation from the party of devolution. Oh, yeah. 1997-2010 devolution – now, same gang, suddenly one nation. Pff!

                  You muppet.

                • Anthony Makara

                  Muppet? Don’t you think your polemic might carry more weight of you debated like an adult rather than as sniping teenager? It is not my intention to defend Labour’s record in office. Ed Miliband himself has already addressed its failures and wants to draw a line under that period. My concern is that the Conservative Party has been hijacked by Neoliberal ideologues and that Paternalistic One-Nation Conservatives have become sidelined and even branded as ‘Socialists’ by the dogmatists. Just as has happened to the GOP in the States. This in turn makes the Conservative Party look extreme and appear as the party of vested interest, of the monied class. Which is a godsend for Labour who only have to hug the centre ground to trot at a canter into number 10.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          You didn’t answer my question. Just what in the hell are you on about?

        • 2trueblue

          Society is built on personal responsibility.

          • Anthony Makara

            I agree, but a responsibility that is shared, and the most responsible of all should be that of government ministers. The Conservative Party couldn’t win the last election because its views alienated most voters and in office has been far too extreme to gain the support and respect of decent caring people. Particularly the attacks on the disabled which have been ideological in origin and all about forcing people onto the lowest paying benefits. I predict that Karma is coming for IDS and others of his ilk and that the Conservative Party is certain to be routed at the next election. It will be deserved too.

            • 2trueblue

              Millipede did nothing to improve real poverty during the reign of Liebore with their massive majority. They wrecked everything and having torn the foundations out put nothing there to support the system. During their 13yrs it was all words, as it is now. Child poverty grew in that time of so called plenty. That is disgusting. There was no need for it. Have you ever been to a house where there is cardboard on the floor? If you think they improved the system then you are wrong. Poverty as defined by Tonybee shows their ignorance and arrogance of what real poverty is.

              Liebore not alone gave these ideas credence they based everything on it.

            • 2trueblue

              During 13yrs Liebre had the opportunity to simplify the benefits system and that job still remains. All Brown, Millipedes, Balls, did was add on more layers to thie system making it ore complicated, and most MPs could now collect certain benefits! They lined their own pockets and to date that has not been sorted.
              Liebore left a huge vacuum in aspiration which was the biggest sin. They let youth enemployment rise to an unprecedented level. Everything was fine because borrowing was cheap and housing was rising in value. Our infrastructure was not expanded and all at a time when we had a population explosion.

              I fail to see how Millipedes words can fill that vacuum. 13yrs of waste.

              Cleaning house is always left for someone else, Liebore don’t do cleaning up. They also ran the most corrupt parliament…….. put Bercow in the chair to ensure that it would never be cleaned up.

              Words are cheap.

        • Colonel Mustard

          Your argument is fallacious because no party has done more to divide Britain through identity politics than Labour. Hell, they even wanted to make the indigenous English a minority in their own country to ensure votes and “to rub the right’s nose in diversity”.

          Oh, yeah, they talk a good fight about “equality and fairness” with the same kind of trite, unworkable aspirations as your “All persons in our country should be equal in rights and social status”. But is an English student equal in rights to a Scottish student – the one saddled with debt the other not? Am I equal in social status to a left-wing champagne socialist quangocrat on £150k per annum or Polly Toynbee? I think not.

          Labour’s equality and fairness is about gaining power and prestige by whining on about that whilst disrupting the status quo to undermine social cohesion, imposing the rights of minorities on the majority and creating more inequality, unfairness, bad feeling, envy, segregation and hatred than this country has ever seen since the English Civil War. God, they thrive on strife and resentment between identity groups. Without the propaganda of constant struggle they could not exist. And yet in 13 years of absolute power they righted no wrongs but created them, robbed our youth of opportunity, split our communities, sowed paranoia, undermined ancient liberties and rights, spat on our constitution, heritage, culture and traditions.

          All of Labour’s many agendas, subversions and failures are egocentric, from the trashing of Britain’s education system to the imposition of badly drafted, oppressive legislation.

          Yet you come here and whine about the Conservative party distancing itself from a moderate demand for no taxation without representation and an end to genocidal immigration without consent and all the risks that poses for our services, infrastructure and sustainability, as well as our national identity.

          Touch a raw nerve? You bet!

          • 2trueblue

            Spot on. We had 13yrs of talk and all the things that mattered were sacrificed by Liebore.

    • Rhoda Klapp

      We note how close Labour came to your sunlit uplands in their thirteen years. Pretty much nobody homeless in 2010, was there?

    • 2trueblue

      So is that why during 13yrs child poverty grew, youth unemployment grew, the gap between rich and poor grew, single parenthood grew? Aspirations on the other hand declined, as did our standards in education. Personal and government debt also grew, MPs wealth grew, and we had the most corrupt parliament in modern history. They also forgot to grow our infrastructure to cope with a massive influx of people and a growing population. All in all they had the media continually telling the nation that it was great.

  • the viceroy’s gin

    Bad news for the Cameroons.

    The LD’s are self destructing, and judging from this, their vote will go Millipedal.

    So UKIP’s rise is coming at the Cameroons’ expense, directly.

    Bad, bad news for the Cameroons, if this vote gets extrapolated.

    Now, on the other hand, it means the LD’s are now basically nothing but hostages. The next election will see them eviscerated, so they’ve no incentive to rock the boat and bring it on sooner than necessary. Of course, that implies that the Cameroons are bright enough to take advantage of this situation, and force the issue. That could assuage UKIP.

  • DavidDP

    The same logic that leads one to say there should be a move towards UKIP given the amount of votes it picked up even more strongly suggests there should be a move towards Labour given they actually won, rather than coming in third.

  • Heartless etc.,

    Is the H2B paying attention? – to the reality rather than making excuses?

  • Vulture

    Strange, Mr Forsyth that you don’t mention the party that came third – and trounced the Lib Dems into a humiliating fourth place with a lost deposit.

    That party was UKIP – aka the real Conservative party.

    I know your Camerloon minders at CCHQ told you not to mention it, so I have instead.

    BTW: that party will also mean that the Conservatives if they stick to Dave will lose the General Election. Toodle pip!

    • telemachus

      There is no message here
      Mistress Mensch let the voters down and her party was punished
      The protest vote went to the monster raving loony ukip shower
      Libdems are in power and cannot expect their usual protest vote
      The key fact here pertains to the winner

      • telemachus

        PS You saw the main plank of Margot Parkers campaign

        “End open-door immigration”

        And you folk said it was not a racist party

        • telemachus

          So what is the main plank of the BNP

          “The BNP is proud to campaign on a number of issues which set it apart from all other political parties, namely…. the immigration invasion of our country…and the danger of the European Union to our sovereignty”

          • telemachus

            PS to the UKIP vicar
            Leviathan initiated a useful debate on CP on 26/2 before being axed and Nico waltzing off

            • telemachus

              Well wisher
              Allende and Hindenburg took their eye off the ball

              • telemachus

                PS
                Tell frank p that leviathan remembered and still keeps a careful log of revanchism

              • TomTom

                Hindenburg did not but he had to hide his son’s dodgy bank debts at Danat Bank in connection with land deals and was susceptible to blackmail by Schleicher, which is why he was murdered.

                • telemachus

                  Same net result.

          • TomTom

            BNP is dead…it was never anything other than an MI5 front organisation to prevent any coherent right-wing party like Mosley’s ever being formed again……it was so pathetic it did not even need ACPO infiltrators like the Leftist Trots and Fourth Internationalists….

            • telemachus

              Nonsense

              It came out of the National Front, described by Wilkinson as fascist and neo-fascist.
              Martin Webster an engaging chap on a personal level-I met him several times-and this is of concern in itself

        • TomTom

          So what….you don’t have an open door in your house

        • Tim Reed

          What is ‘racist’ about ending open door immigration? What ‘race’ are they targeting in particular? These obligatory cries of racism from leftists no longer have any value.

          • telemachus

            In fact the anti immigration lobby are truly racist
            They do not want anyone without white skin particularly if Moslem
            You sir are an apologist for these heinous views

            • Tim Reed

              “In fact the anti immigration lobby are truly racist”

              Have you any facts to back up this assertion, or is this just another baseless shriek of ‘racism, racism everywhere!’ Bore.

      • TomTom

        LibDems are dead meat and cannot rescue Cameron next time……there is no way back for the Conservatives as they are dead meat in the North……Home Counties fringe party

      • D B

        UKIP are far loonier that the late Screaming Lord Sutch ever dreamt of being.

        • telemachus

          Yes

          See the bottom comments on the Forsyth Reasons thread

    • dalai guevara

      I predict a 650 seat win for Labour at the next general election in 2015 (if further QE will take us that far). I never thought I would write this, but it has become obvious that this will be the precise outcome.

  • http://twitter.com/PhilKean1 @PhilKean1

    .
    Cameron is finished. And GOOD RIDDANCE !

    Because if naturally Labour-voting Corby push UKIP up to 3rd, with 5,000+ votes – just behind Cameron’s Party and WAY ahead of the Liberals – just how much better will they do in strong Conservative areas?

    I had thought that UKIP would deny Cameron’s Party about 40 seats in 2015. This result tells me that figure should be much higher.

    This is a real victory for Britain, pro-Sovereignty voters and real Conservatives.
    .

    • Colonel Mustard

      It’s just a pity that it will mean a terminal government of national socialists led by the son of a Marxist. But I honestly think Gormless Dave must have been paving the way for that.

      • DavidDP

        If the electorate are, as you seems to suggest, going to plump for a left wing governmetn, why do you think that swinging further to the right will attract them? That seems to me moving further away from what you say they want.

        • Rhoda Klapp

          Some of us would like to see a party with a set of principles convincing the electorate to trust them with a vote. Some of us like the party to change its principles according to where it thinks the important votes are. However, what we all get is three parties all showing far more similarities than differences in a deliberately proscribed arena. There is no real left or right any more, except inasmuch as the minute policy differences are defined in those terms.

          The role of UKIP in this is to soak up protest votes. Maybe the tory party will realise those votes are not in their bag and do something about it. No, I don’t regard UKIP as it stands as a realistic party for any other purpose. Nigel Farage is a poison pill preventing any transition to electability.

          Anyhow, it’s a by-election in special circumstances and means nothing. Recent changes in spin staff at No.11 are far more important.

        • Colonel Mustard

          Sorry, but where in my comment do I refer to “swinging further to the right” or say anything about what they want?

      • http://twitter.com/PhilKean1 @PhilKean1

        We get the same whichever of the Lib-Lab-Con parties we vote for.

        It can’t go on. UKIP voters will show our dreadful political class that there is a price to pay for treachery.
        .

    • telemachus

      The transfer of the byelection protest vote tells us nothing for the GE

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