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Conservative Corby slips away

16 August 2012

16 August 2012

The first polling on the Corby and East Northamptonshire by-election is out today and not surprisingly, it suggests that Labour will take the seat by a landslide. The poll commissioned by Lord Ashcroft predicts Corby will fall in line with national polling trends — a collapsed Lib Dem vote, reduced Tory presence and a resurgent Labour:

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If the by-election result follows this pattern, it will represent a 9 per cent swing to Labour since the 2010 general election. If this were replicated at a national level, it would be enough to sweep Ed Miliband back into Downing Street.

The poll also gives some reaction to Louise Mensch’s resignation. Over half stated she should have considered the matter more thoroughly before becoming running for office and only 35 per cent rated her as a good local MP. However the voters are not without a heart — 82 per cent did agree that she was ‘perfectly entitled’ to resign to enjoy a better family life.

There are also a few insights into how the government as a whole is perceived by Corby voters. When asked whether the coalition is going well, 44 per cent said yes, but only 27 per cent are satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing. Luckily for the Tories, 30 per cent say they still prefer him over Ed Miliband as Prime Minister.

Any chance of a Tory win in 2015 depends on economic credibility. Despite the consistent lack of growth, nearly half of those polled trust Cameron, Clegg and Osborne to handle the economy over Ed Miliband and Balls. The Tories will be desperately hoping to maintain this distrust of Labour as a key part of the next general election strategy.


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Show comments
  • Prams ton

    The Tories are stuffed, prepare for more Labour Government. It’s gonna be one helluva ride!

  • Percy

    So how’s Dave’s precious a-list policy going?

  • http://www.facebook.com/amergin.selby Amergin Selby

    The reason that Milliband does not attract confidence is because of the hatchet job done and being done on him by the Righties of the gutter media. You might like to argue that but you might be surprised how many people borrow their opinions from the paper they read. Just watch as election day nears how comments like ‘Red Ed’ , ‘Wallace and Gromitt’ etc etc emerge and figure prominently in the media of the right.

  • http://www.facebook.com/amergin.selby Amergin Selby

    The reason that Milliband does not attract confidence is because of the hatchet job done and being done on him by the Righties of the gutter media. You might like to argue that but you might be surprised how many people borrow their opinions from the paper they read. Just watch as election day nears how comments like ‘Red Ed’ , ‘Wallace and Gromitt’ etc etc emerge and figure prominently in the media of the right.

    • james102

      No it is because his background makes it impossible to
      believe he understands the concerns of the British people or would put their
      interests first.

    • PMull

      A man who has quotes like “I am a socialist” and “I know I look like Wallace from Wallace and Gromitt” to his name while being as sanctimonious and opportunistic as he is in PMQs does not have my confidence whether the media likes him or not

  • Douglas Carter

    …’enough to sweep Ed Miliband back into Downing Street’…
    ‘BACK’ into Downing Street?
    …..errm….

  • In2minds

    Corby voters – “Over half stated she should have considered the matter more thoroughly
    before becoming running for office”.

    Well sort of, on the other hand Cameron should have considered the matter more thoroughly before putting Mensch on the A list. Own goal by PM?

  • William Blakes Ghost

    There are few examples where the Prime Minister can be considered so central to the problem. Cameron recruited Mensch as part of his A-List. Cameron wanted the Coalition which has so badly damaged him and his party (mainly through the actions of the Libdems and the Quad) and has provided so many new ex-Libdem voters for Labour.

    Yep this is Dave’s fault. What comes around goes around……..

  • Alexsandr

    how come this government has become such a car crash in such a short time?

    • Paul

      Cameron’s lack of belief in anything other than being in office, his subservience to Clegg… and Clegg and the assorted LibDims slamming the brakes down on every Tory initiative

      • Cuse

        …a Tory backbench who believe tacking to the right will deliver a 100+ seat majority, a set of ill-thought out and incoherent policies, a criminal lack of strategy, a Chancellor who is clearly out of his depth, a Prime Minister who is lazy and arrogant, a Coalition with an unprincipled and moronic junior partner etc etc etc

  • Mirtha Tidville

    This is what happens when the top starts tinkering at local level and parachutes a very PC candidate on them. I bet there wasnt much affection for Mensch/Bagshawe by the local party to start with. She only got in because Broon was so God awful. Doubt she would have ever got re elected again. Mind you thats probably why shes gone to find more fame and fortune elsewhere.

  • 2trueblue

    Mensch really did not think this through. She is old enough to have done so, and obviously not a fit candidate to be trusted with a big job. Is she pretty bright or just pretty? In life timing is everything, and she has certainly picked her time. She is quite an egotistical individual and no great loss.

  • Hexhamgeezer

    ‘resurgent Labour’?
    They might win Corby but ‘resurgent’? A corpse twitching or the political equivalent of an epilieptic fit cannot be described as a surge – or is something happening in Corby as yet unnoticed by the media party?

    • ArchiePonsonby

      Not what the polls say. Have done so for some time, alas.

  • AnotherDaveB

    One poll does not mean the Conservatives cannot win the Corby by-election. None of the main parties is popular. A local candidate and a whole-hearted effort could win it.

    • james102

      What about another A lister?

      • AnotherDaveB

        I’d like to see a range of candidates, and an open primary. That should engage Corby voters ahead of the by-election.

    • William Blakes Ghost

      Hey did you see that pig flying over Westminster this afternoon?

    • Cuse

      Erm…no they couldn’t.

      The Tories are going to be trounced in this one.

  • TomTom

    Louise Bagshaw was a Labour Party member and that appealed to Cameron……..

  • Daniel Maris

    One thing you can guarantee the by election loss will unsettle the herd. Even a herd of cattle get restive when the wolf approaches – even if the cowherd affects insousiance.

    • alexsandr

      so we can expect more back bench rebellions then?

      • Daniel Maris

        Well the herd go off in different directions don’t they? They will be casting around for salvation…Yes – more rebellions. More demands for replacement of ministers…more demands for action on various topics.

        • ArchiePonsonby

          Lord, I hope so!

  • Archimedes

    It’s quite encouraging that Labour have only managed to take 5% from the Conservatives, in a by-election and despite the Conservatives taking a batting since March…

    • Daniel Maris

      BY elections have a tendency to run away…wait for the result. I suspect it will be a lot more than that.

  • Gobstar

    It’s interesting that despite alleged mistrust of Labour, a collapse in the LibDem vote and voters punishing the Tory party for mishandling the economy, the other parties continue to be unable to benefit. Outcome: low turnout?

    • james102

      Yes, the electorate see that party politics in an age of a
      politic class and while we are members of the EU is just marketing the same
      product with different packaging.

      The general public seem to see this clearer than the media
      or party fan base.

  • james102

    Louise Mensch was selected because Cameron and chums are as
    conditioned into believing in proportionate outcomes as the so-called left.

    Was parliament desperately short of chic lit authors or was
    Cameron trying to increase the number of women Conservative MPs regardless of
    their suitability?

    • tellemachus

      Louise was the darling of the unacceptable Tory Right
      Her end is fitting
      The effects of November 15 will be fitting

      • james102

        No I believe she was once a Labour supporter –not that party
        labels means much in an age of a political class.

        The right wing of the party would have supported the local
        constituency making a choice from its activists rather than having someone
        imposed by Central Office because the candidate fitted their preferred “type”.

        Proportionate outcomes will require scrapping the barrel to
        get the various protected groups into parliament—not that it matters they are
        merely voting fodder regardless of group or party.

      • William Blakes Ghost

        Are you always this ridiculous? Mensch is an ex-Blairite luvvie turned Roon A-lister sycophant. She has nothing to do with the Tory Right.

        Really the quality of Brownite propagandists really is plumbing the depths under Miliband

  • TonyB58

    I suspect Mensch had annoyed her constituents enough to lose Corby at the next election anyway. Sadly I cannot work up any enthusiasm for any of the major parties, and I am a member and activist of many years standing. Not surprised that nearly half polled trust Cameron and Osborne to run the economy after the New Labour years though.

  • Halcyondaze2

    Let’s say what needs to be said: Mensch was nothing more than a glory chaser who assumed that her looks and gender would propel her to the kind of success in politics that she assumed was her right everywhere else. She had no interest in Corby whatsoever and every interest in getting her surgically reconfigured mug on television.
    These results come as no surprise. The Conservative Party is collapsing under the charlatan Cameron and it will continue to do so. They’ll be gone in 2015 and so will the narrow opportunity we had to lift this country out of its sad and desperate decline. By their lies, inertia, and lack of gumption the Conservative Party have alienated true conservatives and will allow back into power the very same party who destroyed our economy and deliberately and traitorously opened up our borders to a scale of immigration that would transform our country irreversibly.

    • telemachus

      They’ll be gone in 2015 and so will the narrow opportunity we had to lift this country out of its sad and desperate decline
      *
      1st bit correct
      *
      They’ll be gone in 2015 and then a competent team will take the opportunity to lift this country out of its sad and desperate decline.
      *
      Back to the Golden era of growth we had from 1997 until Subprime and Lehman

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